Presentation at BFS/USAID Washington, DC March 17, 2016

1. The Feed the Future
Zone of Influence in
Bangladesh: Changes in
Selected Indicators from
2011 Baseline to
2015 Midline
Akhter Ahmed
Ricardo Hernandez, Zeeshan Abedin,
Julie Ghostlaw, Nusrat Hossain, Wahidur
Quabili, Farha Sufian, Salauddin Tauseef
Bangladesh Policy Research and
Strategy Support Program, IFPRI
Presentation at BFS/USAID
Washington, DC
March 17, 2016

2. Storyline
Poverty, Income, and Hunger
Food consumption, diets, and child nutritional status
Agricultural land use, rice productivity, input use, and
profitability
Women’s empowerment in agriculture

3. Created a comprehensive database
for the Feed the Future ZOI
IFPRI-PRSSP’s Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS):
the most comprehensive, nationally representative rural
household survey to date. Largest panel survey.
A part of BIHS has been designed to serve as the baseline,
midline, and endline for estimating change in a set of FTF
indicators.
BIHS sampling is statistically representative
nationally of rural Bangladesh,
rural areas for each of the 7 administrative divisions,
FTF Zone of Influence.

4. BIHS Baseline-Midline FTF sample
Two-round panel:
FTF baseline (Nov-Dec 2011):
2,040 HHs
FTF midline (Jan-Mar 2015):
2,017 HHs
Low attrition: 1.3%/year
Map of Bangladesh showing the survey
upazilas in the Feed the Future sampling
frame.

5. BIHS: Big data, big impact
Downloads of 2011/12 BIHS dataset: 600 (2013)  8,000 (now)
Diverse users across 6 continents

6. Change in FTF Indicators from 2011/12 to 2015:
Poverty, Income, and Hunger
6

7. Prevalence of poverty:
Percent of people living on less than $1.25/day
(FTF Ref #: 4 (17))
FTF ZOI population living on less than PPP $1.25 a day fell by 6.5
percentage points (or by 16%):
 40.5 % in 2011/12 34.0 % in 2015
Daily per capita consumption expenditures from 2011/12 and
2015 IFPRI household surveys were adjusted for inflation
using Basic Needs Price Index (2005 base year) obtained
from the World Bank
Used the international poverty line of $1.25 per day,
measured at 2005 purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange
rate for Bangladesh: PPP$1.00=25.494 taka (World Bank)
Calculated local currency equivalent of PPP $1.25 a day
poverty line using 2012 and 2015 BNPI estimates
7

8. Disaggregated prevalence of poverty:
Percent of people living on less than $1.25/day
(FTF Ref #: 4 (17))
8
40.6 40.5 40.5
30.6
34.4 34.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
Adult female, no adult male Male and female adults All family members
Percent
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

9. Income distribution and headcount poverty
rates in FTF ZOI: 2011/12 and 2015
9

10. Change in the number of poor in the FTF ZOI:
1.4 million fewer people in poverty in 2015
2011/12 Baseline population: 27.4 million 2015 Midline population: 28.4 million
18.7 million
9.7 million
Nonpoor Poor
16.3 million
11.1
million
Nonpoor Poor

11. Axioms of poverty: Desirable properties that a
poverty index should respect
Monotonicity axiom
 This class of axioms states that, ceteris paribus, a
decrease in the income of a poor person should increase
the poverty index, and vice-versa.
Transfer axiom
 This class of axioms states that, ceteris paribus, a transfer
of income from a lower income poor person to a higher
income poor person should increase the poverty index
and vice versa.

12. The Pα class of poverty measures
(FGT poverty measures—Foster, Greer, and Thorbecke, 1984)
• General FGT poverty measure
• Poverty headcount ratio
 Does not satisfy any axioms of
poverty
• Per capita income gap (or poverty
gap index or depth of poverty)
 Satisfies monotonicity axiom
• Squared per capita income gap
(or squared poverty gap index; it is
distributionally sensitive)
 Satisfies monotonicity and transfer
axioms

13. Headcount poverty is insensitive to changes among
the poor
$1.25 a day poverty Line
40.5%
(baseline)
0

14. Depth of Poverty: Mean percent shortfall
relative to the $1.25 poverty line
(FTF Ref #: 4 (TBD8))
14
10.3
9.2 9.3
7.3
7.0 7.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Adult female, no adult male Male and female adults All family members
Percent
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

15. Poverty declined more for the ultra poor (by 30.6%) than the
subjacent poor (by 8.0%)
40.5%0
$0.90 a day poverty line
$1.25 a day poverty line
Subjacent poor 26.1%
34.0%14.4%10.0%
Ultra poor
0.90
1.25
2011/12
Subjacent poor 24.0%Ultra
poor
2015

16. Dynamics of poverty in the FTF ZOI:
Changes from 2011 to 2015
16
54.0
17.7
16.2
12.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Non-poor remained non-
poor
Poor remained poor Poor moved out of
poverty
Non-poor fell into
povery
PercentoftotalpopulationinFTFZOI

17. Why do poor remain poor?
Using multinomial logit regression and the panel data, we
examined probable reasons why the poor remained in poverty
from 2011/12 to 2015. Main factors that increase the likelihood
of remaining in poverty are:
 Low levels of human and physical assets: Lack of schooling of
household head, land holding, and reduction in total value of
other assets
 Decrease in nonfarm income share in total income
 Decrease in women’s empowerment in agriculture (measured
by WEAI score)
 Decrease in savings
 No access to electricity and no ownership of cell phone
 Increased dependency ratio and household size
 If social safety net transfer is less than 15% of total household
income of SSN participants.

18. Falling into poverty
Key results from multinomial logit regression suggest households
are more likely to fall into poverty if:
 The number of household members and dependency ratio
increases
 Household incurs crop losses from floods, droughts, pests,
and diseases
The following factors tend to prevent households from
backsliding into poverty:
 More years of schooling of the head of household
 Higher share of income from nonfarm sources
 Higher value of asset holding and increase in savings
 Increase in owned land
 Access to electricity
 If social safety net income is more than 15% of total
household income of SSN participants.

19. Daily per capita expenditures (as a proxy for
income) in FTF ZOI
(FTF Ref #: 4.5-9)
19
2.11
1.85 1.89
2.40
2.05 2.10
0
1
2
3
Adult female, no adult male Male and female adults All family members
Constant2010US$perday
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

20. Income increased relatively more for the poor:
Change in real income by income groups
20
0.94
1.29
1.63
2.10
3.49
1.46
1.72
1.89
2.30
3.16
0
1
2
3
4
1 (poorest) 2 3 4 5 (richest)
Constant2010US$perday
Per capita expenditure quintiles
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

21. What factors affect farmers’ income?
Using random effects panel regression and sub-sample of FTF farm
households, results show that farmers’ income increases if:
 Household male head and female spouse have more schooling
 They use mechanized irrigation, have access to commercial loans
 Women are more empowered (measured by WEAI)
 Operated land area, total value of assets increase
 They increase MoP fertilizer use per hectare
 Non-farm income share increases; have access to electricity (solar
panel or national grid) and own cell phone
 Domestic and international remittances increase
Farmers’ income tends to decrease when:
 Share of cropped land under rice cultivation increases
 Dependency ratio and household size increase

22. Prevalence of households with moderate or
severe hunger
(FTF Ref #: 3.1.9-3 & 4.7-4)
22
12.3
7.1
7.5
11.9
4.6
5.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Adult female, no adult male Male and female adults All family members
Percent
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

23. Change in FTF Indicators from 2011/12 to 2015:
Food Consumption, Diets, and
Nutrition
23

24. Overwhelming dominance of rice in diet
Share of nutrient from rice in total nutrient intakes of Bangladeshis
71
57
62
44
78
67
70
52
63
46
52
36
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Food energy (calorie) Protein Zinc Iron
Percentageoftotalnutrientintake
All Poorest 20% Richest 20%
Source: IFPRI Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS): 2011/12 Baseline

25. Women’s dietary diversity (mean number of food
groups consumed by women of reproductive age)
(FTF Ref #: 3.1.9.1-2)
25
4.26
4.49
3
4
5
Reproductive age women (15-49 years)
Meannumberoffoodgroupsconsumedinthe
previousday
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

26. Prevalence of children 6-23 months receiving a
minimum acceptable diet in the previous day
(FTF Ref #: 3.1.9.1(1))
26
12.4 13.0 12.7
17.2
21.3
19.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
Male Female All
Percentofchildrenaged6-23months
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

27. Calculation of the WFP Food Consumption Score
(# of days consumed of each food group, weighted by “nutritional
importance”)
Group Food items Food group Weight
1 Rice and other cereals Staples 2
2 Beans, lentils, peas and nuts Pulses/legumes 3
3 Vegetables and leaves Vegetables 1
4 Fruits Fruits 1
5
Beef, goat, poultry, eggs, and
fish
Meat, eggs and
fish 4
6
Milk, yogurt, and other
dairies Milk 4
7
Sugar, sugar products, and
honey Sugar 0.5
8 Oils, fats, and butter Oil 0.5

28. Household diet quality improved
(using WFP’s Food Consumption Score: 0-112)
Average FCS
Percentage of households with
low FCS (<35)
8.3
3.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline
Percent
56.4
62.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline
Foodconsumptionscore

29. Frequency of food groups consumed
in past 7 days
29
7.0
6.7
1.4 1.3 1.3
5.1
6.9
2.6
7.0 6.9
2.7
1.8 1.7
5.5
6.9
3.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Frequencyoffoodsconsumedinpast7days
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

30. Explaining diet quality in the FTF ZOI
Using random effects regression and panel data, results show that
household-level diet quality (measured by Food Consumption
Score) improves if:
 Household male head and female spouse have more schooling
 Household agricultural production diversity increases (increased
number of non-rice food crops grown, and milk-cow and poultry
reared)
 Rice price (inflation adjusted) increases consume less rice
and more non-rice foods
 Women are more empowered (measured by WEAI)
 Non-farm income share increases

31. Explaining diet quality in the FTF ZOI (cont’d)
Household-level diet quality improves if:
 Total value of assets increases
 Have access to electricity (solar panel or national grid)
 Use mechanized irrigation
 Own cell phone
 Domestic and international remittances increase
Household-level diet quality deteriorates if:
 Household grows rice
 Household is located in the coastal belt of the FTF ZOI.

32. Prevalence of stunted children under five years of age
(FTF Ref #: 3.1.9(11))
DHS data for Barisal and Khulna
Divisions (used by USAID)
IFPRI BIHS data for the FTF ZOI
(not used by USAID)
38.2
32.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
2011 2014
Percentofunder5children
44.7
41.9 43.1
40.3
35.2
37.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
Male Female All
Percentofunder5children
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

33. Change in FTF Indicators from 2011/12 to 2015:
Agriculture
33

34. Distribution of operated land by farm size
groups in FTF ZOI at baseline
34
32.8
43.8
15.6
7.88.3
37.2
27.8 26.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
Marginal (<0.5 acre) Small (0.5-1.49 acres) Medium (1.5-2.49 acres) Large (2.5 acres and
more)
Percent
Farm size groups
Percent of farmers Percent of total opearated land

35. Land tenure patterns and forms of tenancy
in FTF ZOI
Land tenure patterns Forms of tenancy
37
40
15
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
Percent
28
37
35
0
10
20
30
40
Pure tenant
(no land
owned)
Own land
only
Mixed tenant
(own
land+land
taken-in)
Percent

36. Change in cropped area and cropping intensity in the
FTF ZOI from 2011/12 baseline to 2015 midline
Change in cropped area Change in cropping intensity
160.0
170.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline
Percent
-4.0
2.3
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Net cropped area Gross cropped area
Percent

37. Share of rice in total cropped land decreased by
3.6 percentage points
37
67.6
64.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Share of rice in total cropped area in FTF ZOI
Percentoftotalcroppedarea
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

38. Share of different types of rice in total cropped
area in FTF ZOI changed significantly
38
2.7
4.5
8.3
2.2
19.2
30.9
0.7
2.6 2.1
9.1
23.6
26.8
0
10
20
30
40
Aus (local) Aus (HYV) B. aman (local) T. aman (local) T. aman (HYV) Boro (HYV &
hybrid)
PercentoftotalcroppedareainFTFZOI
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

39. 39
1.3
0.4
6.2
2.6
0.3
0.5
4.7
0.5
9.5
2.3
1.8
8.6
3.5
0.4 0.3
4.0
0.4
8.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Wheat Maize Pulses Oilseeds Potatoes Leafy
vegetables
Other
vegetables
Bananas Jute
PercentoftotalcroppedareaintheFTFZOI
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline
Share of non-rice crops in total cropped area in
FTF ZOI also changed considerably

40. Overall rice yields increased 8.3%
(Total rice production in FTF ZOI increased 3.2% despite the decline in rice area)
40
1.17
2.25
1.42
1.56
2.51
3.67
4.08
2.79
1.31
2.29
1.53 1.63
2.88
3.92
4.41
3.02
0
1
2
3
4
5
Aus (local) Aus (HYV) B. aman
(local)
T. aman
(local)
T. aman
(HYV)
Boro (HYV) Boro
(hybrid)
All rice
Metrictonsofmilledriceequivalentperhectare
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

41. Rice yields by farm size groups
41
2.9
2.7 2.7
2.4
3.1
3.0
2.9 2.9
0
1
2
3
4
Marginal (<0.5 acre) Small (0.5-1.49 acres) Medium (1.5-2.49 acres) Large (2.5 acres and
more)
Metrictonsofriceperhectare
Farm size groups
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

42. Gross margin of selected crops per hectare
(FTF Ref # 4.5-16-18)
42
144 126
167 179
437
767
834
284
470
399
185
335
294
248
461
578
659
414
706
524
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Aus
(local)
Aus
(HYV)
B. aman
(local)
T. aman
(local)
T. aman
(HYV)
Boro
(HYV)
Boro
(hybrid)
Wheat Lentil
pulse
Mung
beans
US$perhectare
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

43. Rate of fertilizer use for HYV & hybrid boro rice
cultivation
43
253
125
24
63
286
124
48
69
269
131
121
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Urea TSP DAP MoP
Kilogramsperhectare
Type of fertilizer
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline Recommended dose for boro rice

44. Rate of fertilizer use for t. aman rice cultivation
(kilograms/hectare)
Local t. aman rice HYV t. aman rice
96
40
5 10
94
20 16
6
0
50
100
150
200
Urea TSP DAP MoP
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline
202
95
27
49
185
97
36
52
0
50
100
150
200
Urea TSP DAP MoP
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

45. Rate of fertilizer use by farm size groups
(kilograms/hectare)
HYV & hybrid boro rice HYV t. aman rice
252 260
247
227
295 298
263 263
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Marginal
(<0.5 acre)
Small (0.5-
1.49 acres)
Medium
(1.5-2.49
acres)
Large (2.5
acres and
more)
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline
207 202
216
149
205
183 175 182
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Marginal
(<0.5 acre)
Small (0.5-
1.49 acres)
Medium
(1.5-2.49
acres)
Large (2.5
acres and
more)
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

46. Source of seeds for rice cultivation
(percentage of farmers)
HYV boro rice HYV t. aman rice
41.6
1.0
45.9
6.6
5.0
19.2
29.5
48.7
1.3 1.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Own/gift Seed
company
dealers
Local shop
(brand not
known)
BADC Multiple
sources
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline
51.0
0.8
39.2
2.9
6.0
31.9
19.1
41.5
1.1
6.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Own/gift Seed
company
dealers
Local shop
(brand not
known)
BADC Multiple
sources
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

47. Source of irrigation for boro rice crop
47
76.3
20.3
3.3
70.6
27.2
2.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ground water Surface water Both ground & surface water
Percentoffarmersgrowingbororice
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

48. Method of irrigation used for boro rice crop
48
74.8
5.3
12.4
1.8
5.8
63.1
6.3
10.8
2.6
17.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Shallow tubewell Deep tubewell Low lift pump Canal irrigation Manual irrigation
Percentoffarmersgrowingbororice
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

49. 49
7
14
20
23
13
10
17
19
28
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Marginal (<0.5
acre)
Small (0.5-1.49
acres)
Medium (1.5-2.49
acres)
Large (2.5 acres and
more)
All
PercentoffarmersintheFTFZOI
Farm size groups
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline
Percentage of farmers who received GOB
agricultural extension service in past 12 months

50. Change in FTF Indicators from 2011/12 to 2015:
Women’s Empowerment
in Agriculture
50

51. Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index
(FTF Ref #: 4.5 (19))
51
 Survey-based index Developed by USAID, IFPRI and the Oxford
Poverty and Human Development Initiative to measure
empowerment and inclusion of women in the agricultural
sector.
 IFPRI’s Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS) was
specifically designed to measure the WEAI.
 Bangladesh is the first country to have WEAI data
representative of the FTF ZOI as well as all rural areas of the
country.
 IFPRI administered the full version of the WEAI module in
2011/12 and 2015 BIHS.

52. How is the WEAI constructed?
52
Five domains of
empowerment
(5DE)
A direct measure of
women’s empowerment
in 5 dimensions
Gender parity
Index (GPI)
Women’s
achievements relative
to the primary male
in hh
Women’s
Empowerment
in Agriculture
Index
(WEAI)
All range from zero to one;
higher values = greater
empowerment
WEAI is made up of two sub indices

53. A woman’s empowerment score shows her own
achievements
53

54. Who is empowered?
54
A woman who has achieved
‘adequacy’ in 80% or more of the
weighted indicators
is empowered

55. Remarkable improvement in women’s
empowerment status in the FTF ZOI
55
27.4
54.1
40.2
31.6
41.2
63.2
50.7
21.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Empowered headcount Adequacy score Women with gender
parity
Empowerment gap
Percent
2011/12 2015

56. Conclusions
56
 Poverty has declined in the FTF ZOI by 16% from baseline to
midline. Poverty decline was more for the poorest of the poor
than those who are less poor.
 Key factors that help households move out of poverty are
education, non-farm income, women’s empowerment, access
to electricity, physical asset holding, and savings. If the size of
safety net transfer is at least 15% of income of recipient
households then safety net participation tends to prevent
households from backsliding into poverty.
 Household incomes, measured in terms of per capita
expenditures, increased in the FTF ZOI by 11%. The magnitude
of increase was much higher for the poor.
 Increased farmers’ income is positively associated with
education, mechanized irrigation, access to commercial loans,
women’s empowerment in agriculture, access to electricity,
ownership of cell phone and solar panel, as well as non-farm
income.

57. Conclusions
57
 Increased incomes and poverty reduction contributed to the
decrease in the prevalence of households with moderate or
severe hunger, indicating an improvement in household-level
food security.
 Dietary diversity of reproductive-aged women in the FTF ZOI
shows a modest 5% increase. Although the proportion of all
children aged 6-23 months receiving a minimum acceptable
diet increased, only about one-fifth of children meet the
minimum dietary requirements. Women’s and children’s
dietary diversity are improving, but these areas still call for
greater attention.
 Increased dietary diversity is positively associated with
education, agricultural production diversity, women’s
empowerment in agriculture, access to electricity,
mechanized irrigation, remittances, non-farm income.

58. Conclusions
58
 While the share of rice on total cropped land fell from 68% to
64% of total cropped land in the FTF ZOI, rice yields grew
8.3%, resulting in 3.2% increase in total rice production in the
ZOI.
 The share of land in total cropped area for input-intensive
boro rice crop declined 13% due to reduced profitability. On
the other hand, many farmers switched to higher value and
high-nutritive value crops like pulses. However, the declined
share of land under vegetables needs attention.
 Only 27% of women in the FTF ZOI were empowered at
baseline, which increased to 41% in 2015. Women’s
empowerment in agriculture improves dietary diversity,
increases farmers’ income, and helps households move out of
poverty. Therefore, promoting women’s empowerment
should remain paramount to the FTF agenda to attain
complementary development goals.