Determinants and Consequences of High Fertility in sub-Saharan Africa and the Implications for Reaping and Optimizing Demographic Dividends

1. Seminar Paper
on
Determinants and Consequences of High Fertility in Sub-Saharan
Africa and the Implications for Reaping and Optimizing
Demographic Dividends
Presented by
Bankole Olatunji T.
(SSP14/15/H/1774)
Department of Demography and Social Statistics,
Faculty of Social Sciences, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-
Ife, Nigeria
2017

2. Scope of the Study
 Introduction
 Trends in World Population
 Fertility Differentials: Developed Versus Less Developed Countries
 Briefly Looking at the Trends in African Population
 The Persistent Growth in sub-Saharan Africa Fertility
 Determinants of Fertility Change in sub-Saharan Africa
 Consequences of High Fertility in sub-Saharan Africa
 Implications for Reaping and Optimizing Demographic Dividends
 Prospect for Fertility Decline in sub-Saharan Africa
 Conclusion/Area for Further Studies

3. Introduction
 The growth in human population has been allied to a good
number of factors, notable among which are his sociocultural,
economic and demographic aspects
 Over the past 50 years, the human population in the sub-
Saharan region of Africa has increased by an alarming rate of
300%, thus, rising from 179.2 million in 1965 to 962.8 million in
2015 (UN, 2015).
 A recent empirical report by Population Reference Bureau shows
that the first ten countries with the highest TFRs are all situated
in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region.
 The persistent rise in population in the SSA has been intensively
argued by scholars as one of the major hindrances to the
attainment of an improved general well-being (Ayodeji et al,
2015; Ezi, 2015; Kerry, 2014; Emmanuel et al, 2009; )
 Obviously, the impact of high fertility in the SSA can be unfolded
in the short and long run terms. Hence, the objectives of this
study:

4. Objectives of the Study
 This paper focus is centered towards the achievement of the outlined
below objectives:
 To extensively review the recent trends in fertility level in the SSA
 To further explore the determining factors behind fertility preference
in the SSA, and the consequences in line with each identified factor
 To examine the fertility prospect in the SSA region
 To review the extent of fertility differentials in the SSA
 To examine the implications for reaping and optimizing demographic
dividends, using Nigeria as a Case Study

5. Trends in World Population
 Fertility pattern, particularly in the transition stage was found to
be closely associated with differentials in human culture and
socioeconomic characteristics (Subhas, 2013; Bongaarts,
2011;2008;Jejeebhoy, 1995; Jones, 1982)
 The world current population of over 7.3 billion is growing at an
alarming rate of 70 million newborns yearly, and it is expected to
rise to 10.5 billion inhabitants by year 2050 (UN, 2015).
 The world population has reproduced itself three times from
1950 to 2015, although with variation across its various regions.

6. …Continuation
Table 1: World Population Growth (1950-2015)
Population (in Billion)
Regions 1950 2015 Population Increase
World 1.8 7.3 5.5
Developed Countries 1.19 1.2 0.01
Less Developed Countries 2.03 6.09 4.06
Source: UN, 2015 (Department of Economics & Social Affairs, Population Division)

7. Fertility Differential: Developed vs Less Dev. Countries
 The preference for more children is on the decline in the
developed world, with TFRs of below replacement level
 The reverse is the case in the less developed world, particularly
in the SSA (UN, 2015; PRB, 2015).
 There is a huge gap in population size between these two
regions, while the developed world population of 1.2 billion
peoples account for 16.4% of the global total 7.3 billion
inhabitants, the less developed population of 6.09 billion account
for the remaining 73.6% of the world population (PRB, 2015)

8. …Continuation
able 2: Differentials in Rates of Natural Increase (1950- 2015)
(N.I. Rates Per 1000 Population)
egions 1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015
orld 17.7 19.6 15.4 11.8
eveloped
ountries
11.8 6.5 2.3 1.0
ast Developed
ountries
21.1 24.3 26.8 27.3
b-Saharan Africa 19.9 27.1 27.2 27.3

9. Briefly Looking at the Trend of African Population
 The pace of decline in fertility rates on the African continent is
relatively slower compared with other developing regions of the world
(UN,2015; Olanrewaju, 2013; Bongaarts, 2011).
 With the TFRs of Niger rep., DR Congo, Chad rep., Central Africa rep.,
and the rest, but Mauritius (1.4) above replacement level (2.1), the
African continent is the fastest growing region in the world by fertility
growth rates.
 However, there are differentials in the population growth across the
continent different regions over the past 65 years.

10. …Continuation
able 3: Differentials in African Rates of Natural Increase (1950- 2015)
(N.I. Rates Per 1000 Population)
gions 1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2000-2005 2010-2015
rica 21.2 27.2 26.2 24.9 26.0
b-Saharan 19.9 27.1 27.2 26.5 27.3
stern Africa 22.5 29.4 27.5 27.8 28.4
ddle Africa 18.9 26.3 30.2 30.3 30.2
rthern Africa 26.2 27.3 22.7 18.4 20.7
uthern Africa 23.4 25.2 20.4 10.7 9.8
estern Africa 16.9 25.5 27.1 26.9 28.0
urce: UN, 2015 (Department of Economics & Social Affairs, Population Division)

11. The Persistent Growth in sub-Saharan Africa Fertility
 All the countries but Mauritius on the African continent TFRs are
above the replacement level.
 By 2100, 14 out of 30 most populated countries in the world
would be from the continent, with SSA accounting for 12 out of
these countries (PRB, 2015).
 Over the past 65 years, the continent of Africa has grown from
228 million to 1.2 billion inhabitants, with the SSA sporadically
increasing from 249.2 to 962.8 million within this period
(UN,2015).
 The continent population is expected to rise to 3.02 billion by
2025, then rise to 3.05 billion by 2050 and then hit an alarming
figure of 14.95 billion people by 2100 (PRB, 2015)

12. Table 4: Distribution of African Countries by Extreme TFRs and
Countries with Lowest TFRs
Countries with Lowest TFRs Countries with Highest TFRs African Countries with TFR <3.0
Bosnia-Herzegovina (1.2) Niger Rep. (7.6)*** Mauritius (1.4)
Portugal (1.2) South Sudan (6.9) *** Tunisia (2.1)
South Korea (1.2) DR Congo (6.6) *** Libya (2.4)
Taiwan (1.2) Somalia (6.6) *** Seychelles (2.4) ***
Andorra (1.3) Chad Rep. (6.5) *** Reunion (2.4) ***
Cyprus (1.3) Burundi (6.2) *** Morocco (2.5)
Greece (1.3) Central Africa Rep. (6.2) *** South Africa (2.6) ***
Singapore (1.3) Angola (6.1) *** Botswana (2.9) ***
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2015.
Note: ***sub-Saharan country

13. Determinants of Fertility Change in sub-Saharan Africa
 Fertility rates across the region of SSA are at extremes, with 45 out the
66 nations with highest fertilities centered in the region (UN,2015).
 Some of the major determinants of fertility change in the SAA are:
 Children as Old Age Security
 The Influence of Education
 Age at Entry into Marriage
 The Economic Contribution of Minor Children
 Contraception (Unmet Need)
 High Rate of Infant Mortality
 Postpartum Abstinence/Pattern of Breastfeeding

14. Consequences of High Fertility in SAA
 Child’s Denial of Right to Basic Education
 Disparities in School Gender Parity (PRB, 2015)
 Poor Living Standard & Low Quality of Life (Oluwasola & Terfa,
2014; Olarewaju et al, 2013; Akokuwebe & Okunola, 2012)
 High Total Dependency Ratio : 86.2% in 2005; 87.7% in 2010;
87.7% in 2015 (UN, 2015)
 High Child Dependency Ratio: 81.1% in 2005; 82.3% in 2010;
82.6% in 2015 (UN, 2015)

15. Implications for Reaping and Optimizing Demographic
Dividends: Nigeria as a Case Study
 Economic Growth and Sustainable Development: GDP Versus
Real GDP (Per Capita Income)
 Quantity Versus of Quality of Labour Force: High Rate Average
Employment Status Versus Under Employment
 Investment on Human Capital Development: How Prepared is the
Population in relation to Human dignity and Human welfare?
 High Dependency Ratio : Total Dependency Versus Child
Dependency Ratio
 Food Insecurity Versus Disequilibrium of the Ecosystem
 Youth Unemployment Versus Induced Migration

16. Prospect for Fertility Decline in sub-Saharan Africa
 The SSA is characterized with very young population, hence there
is a little chance for a decline in the region population
(Oluwasola & Terfa, 2014; Jean-Pierre, 2012)
 The sociocultural beliefs, norms and values of the majority of the
peoples of the SSA are in support of large family size (Caldwell,
2002; 1992; 1987; Bongaarts, 2011)
 There are still a relatively a wider unmeet need for contraception
among women in their reproductive ages in almost all the SSA
countries (UN,2015; PRB, 2015)
 The SAA region is still characterized with a relatively higher
Educational Gender Parity Index compared with those of other
developing regions in the world (PRB, 2015)

17. Conclusion:
 Uncontrolled population growth has been identified as one of the
major hindrances to the sustainability of economic growth which is
essential for the attainment of economic development in the sub-
Saharan Africa, although in exception of a few countries- Mauritius,
Tunisia, Morocco, Libya, Botswana and South Africa.
 However, if the large population is well-harnessed, it may turn-out to
be an asset that would not only promote economy expansion but also
make these countries less dependence on developed nations for
economic directives.
 Nevertheless, there are still great needs for the region to embrace the
suggested measures to controlling its rapid population growth rate, in
order to be able to sustain the attained improved quality of life in the
long run.

18. Area for Further Research:
 The study affirmed that the anticipated demographic dividends in
the sub-Saharan Africa region has come with more of negative than
positive implications in virtually all its nations.
 Therefore, it is suggestable that further studies should endeavor to
explore the roles of income redistribution human capacity building
on population sustainability with primary aim of achieving the Goal
1, 4, 8 and 10 of Sustainable Development Goals on before year
2030.

19. THANKS
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