Marie de Lattre-Gasquet IFPRI POLICY SEMINAR Visioning the future of Food Security January 18, 2017

1. Agrimonde-Terra
IFPRI policy seminar « Visioning the future of Food Security»
18 January 2017
Presentation of the collective work by Marie de Lattre-Gasquet
Land use and global food security
in 2050
A FORESIGHT EXERCISE

2. Agrimonde-Terra : a collective work
Project team:
M. de Lattre-Gasquet (Cirad, coordinator), Ch. Le Mouël (Inra, coordinator), O. Mora (Inra,
organizer for scenario building), C. Donnars (Inra), P. Dumas (Cirad) & O. Rechauchère (Inra),
in collaboration with M. Barzman (Inra), T. Brunelle (Cirad), A. Forslund (Inra), E. Marajo-
Petitzon (Inra), S. Manceron (Inra), P. Marty (Inra) & C. Moreau (Cirad).
Thematic workshops (scientific coordinators and 80 researchers):
(i) “Urban-rural relationships”: F. Aubert (Agro-Sup, Dijon) & F. Lançon (Cirad)
(ii) “Structures of production”: J. Marzin (Cirad) & L. Piet (Inra)
(iii) “Cropping systems”: D. Makowski (Inra), E. Malézieux & F. Maraux (Cirad)
(iv) “Livestock systems” A. Ickowitz & P. Lecomte (Cirad) & P. Lescoat (APT)
Scenario Advisory Committee:
A. Andersson Djurfeldt (LundUniversity, Sweden), L. Ben Becher (Synagri, Tunisia), M.
Elloumi (Inrat, Tunisia), A. Faye (IPAR, Senegal), R. Guissou / Y. G. Bazie (Ministry of
Agriculture and Food Security, Burkina Faso), H. Kray (World Bank, USA), J. Lewis (Terra
Global Capital, USA), P. Meyfroidt (Louvain University, Belgium), M. Mueller (FAO, Italy), S.
Msangui (IFPRI, USA), A. Onorati (International Planning Committee on Food Sovereignty,
Italy), S. Parmentier (Oxfam, Belgium), A. Retière (Cap 2100, France), R. Sonnino (Cardiff
University, UK), S. Treyer (IDDRI, France), D. van der Mensbrugghe (AgMIP, Purdue
University, USA), J. Vervoort (CCAFS and Oxford University, UK), H. Zehni (IFAD, Italy).

3. From Agrimonde to Agrimonde-Terra
Agrimonde
Feeding the World in 2050
2007-2010
Agrimonde-Terra
Land Use and Food security in 2050
(started in 2013)
• Land (esp. pastures) and water
• Diets, malnutrition
• Climate change
• Energy: needs and transition
• Soils erosion and pollution
• Biodiversity loss
• 570 million farms
2 contrasted scenarios:
- Agrimonde GO /
- Agrimonde 1

4. The Agrimonde-Terra
foresight process
ANTICIPATION
APPROPRIATION(PRO)-ACTION
To facilitate informed decision-making
and multi-stakeholder approach
about the futures of land use
and food security by :
Drivers of land use and food security systems
(global and regional) and alternative
hypotheses about future changes
5 scenarios
GlobAgri, a quantitative platform
Scenario Advisory Committee
Presentations & discussions
Regional & national workshops
Decisions at international,
regional and national levels
by differents actors

5. Methodological innovations
1. A systemic & participatory approach combining
hypotheses in a coherent fashion

6. Methodological innovations
2. Combination of qualitative and quantitative
approaches
Quantitative hypotheses for 14 regions
Population of 9.7 billion
Economic growth; R&D; trade coeff.
Max cultivable area (Zabel et al, 2014); effect on yields
(Müller and Robertson, 2014); EJ produced by biomass
Diet composition, daily calories availability
--
--
Shares of livestock systems in each sector’s production in
regions; feed-to-output ratios by sector/system/ region
Yield gaps; cropping intensity

7. 7
Illustration: Food diets 2050
Quantitative
hypotheses:
Average world in 2010
and in 2050 following
the various food diets
pathways.
Regional differences
Situation in
2010
Transition to
diets based
on
ultraprocess
ed products
Transition
to diets
based on
animal
products
Regional
diversity
of diets
and food
systems
Healthy
diets
based on
food
diversity

8. 8
7.c. Wheat
7.f. Pulses
Source: Authors’ calculation from GlobAgri-AgT and GAEZ data
Cropping systems

9. Methodological innovations
3. Building national scenarios with Ag-T and GlobAgri
Agroecological
land uses
Dualisme in
land uses
Virtual land Survive on
land
Crop yields per hectare ++ + +++ -
Animal production ++ + + -
Use of inputs + +++ - -
Availability of local seeds +++ + - +
Employment +++ + - +
Imports’ dependance + ++ +++ -
Evolution of arable land + ++ - -
3. 4 scenarios
built and assessed
2. Hypotheses prepared
by Tunisian stakholders
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Millionhectares
Wheat
Sunflowerseed
Sugar plants and
products
Soyabeans
Roots and Tuber
Rice
Rape and
Mustardseed
Pulses
Other plant
products
Other Oilcrops
Distribution of land use in North Africa with 4
Agrimonde-Terra scenarios.
Source : GlobaAgri-AgT
4. Quantitative illustrations
1. Retrospective of land
use and food security in
Tunisia (1960 – 2015) and
discussion
 Consensus on past and
on-going trends
Contexte
Coopération
mondiale et
durabilité
Régionalisation
et transition
énergétique
Développement
conventionnel
tiré par les
forces du
marché mondial
Fragmenta-
tion politique
et
économique
Changement
climatique
Changement
climatique
accéléré
Stabilisation du
changement
climatique
Gouvernance
en Tunisie
Politiques
volontaristes
de
développement
rural
Inertie des
problèmes
structurels
Extraversion de
l’économie
tunisienne
Faiblesse de
l’Etat et
pression des
groupes
d’intérêt
particulier
Régimes
alimentaires
Transition
alimentaire
impulsée par la
chaîne de
valeur
moderne
Sursaut
sanitaire
Régime
alimentaire
territorialisé
Dualisme
alimentaire
Relations
rural/urbain
Grande région
métropolitaine
et rupture
spatiale avec
les hinterlands
ruraux
Zones rurales
intégrés dans
des réseaux de
villes à travers
organisation
chaines de
valeur
alimentaire
Ménages multi-
localisés et
pluriactifs dans
un archipel rural-
urbain
Structures
d’exploitation
Structures
d’exploitations
résilientes
reliées aux
dynamiques
urbaines
Structures
autonomes
tout en étant
dépendantes
de grandes
entreprises
Structures qui
font production
simultanée de
biens et de
services
Structures
tournées vers
qualité
(marché de
niche à haute
valeur
ajoutée)
Projet agro-
financier
à durée
déterminée
Structures d’
exploitation
marginalisées
Systèmes
d’élevage
Elevage agro-
écologique sur
terres en
synergie avec
l’agricultureou
l’urbanisation
Elevage
intensif
conventionnel
avec
alimentation
locale et
importée
Elevage intensif
conventionnel
avec
alimentation
importée (hors
sol)
Elevage sur
les terres
marginales
Systèmes de
culture
Régression /
Stagnation de
la production
Intensification
conventionnell
e
Agroécologie

10. Unexpected result
Five scenarios and impact on LU and FS
Metropolization Regionalization Healthy Communities Households
Narratives about
drivers and “how
did we get there”
Global markets,
megacities and spatial
divide with rural areas,
global food value
chains, ultra-processed
and animal-based
foods. External feed-
livestock,
conventional intensific.,
Small farmers
marginalized
diet-related diseases
Supranational regional
blocs, medium-size
cities linked with rural
areas, regional food
systems and diets,
food sovereignty and
subsidiarity,
Re-location of livestock
and crop systems,
association of prod.
and cons.
Global cooperation,
climate change
stabilization,
international policies
on health and
nutrition,
food diversification
Crop system
diversification,
agroecology,
crop–livestock
integration,
soil carbon storage
Global fragmentation
Crises: governance,
economic, energy and
ecology.
Local communities,
commons, agro-
ecology.
Collapse of cropping
systems, subsistence
farming.
food insecurity
Globalization based on
non-State actor and
networks, value chain
disintermediation,
rural-urban mobility.
Agricultural
households: multi-
activity, multi-local,
non-farm activities.
Diverse farm structures
Agro. Potent. + 120 M ha + 60 M ha = initial + 60 M ha + 60 M ha
Access - - - + + + + + + - -  + + + +
Distribution + specialization Diversifcation Diversification Diversification + High value pdts
Intensity
Observed yields
Harvest/cult area
- - -
+ + +
- -
+ +
= 2010
+ + +
- - / + +
+ + +
- / + +
+ + +
Services - - - + + + + + + + + + / - - + + +
Availability + + + - - - / + + + + + + - - - / + + + =
Access - - + + + + + + - - - + + + / - - -
Utilization - - - + + + + + + + + / - - - / + +

11. Unexpected result
2. The urgent need to change pathway
Land use
changes
in Mha
Qualitative assumptions (sustainable intensification for cropping livestock and agroecological livestock)
 Secure access to land. Stabilization of global warming, carbon storage, energy transition. Crops –
livestock associations. Rediversification of crops and crop systems. Agricultural employment;
ecosystem services provided by land
Qualitative hypotheses
Insecure access to land
 dual system.
Runaway climate.
Globalized value chains.
Few services provided
by land.
Little employment in
agriculture.
Lack of nutriments.
Overweight and non-
comunicable diet-
related diseases.
Inequalities.
Poor biodiversity and
low resilience of
systems.

12. New insight about global food security
• No given pathway to food security while addressing
major challenges  urgent need for systemic and
coherent transformation through multi-
stakeholder cooperation.
• Each region / country will have its own pathway in
relation to initial situation and in coherence with
common responsibilities in facing global challenges.
• There are leverage points.

13. SSA: Leverage points for Healthy pathway
States cooperate with variety of actors; norms / I.P rules for diversity &
food quality. Firms see business opportunities. Evolution of multilateral
trade & more trade partners. Etc.
SSA: representation of SSA in international bodies; democratization;
efficient administrations, less corruption; transparency and openness;
systems and participatory research. Etc.
Carbon storage, hydropower, solar energy. Link between rural and carbon
credits. Etc.
Food policies and education; consumer mobilization; increased
consumption of fruits, vegetables, local cereals, pulses, animal products,
but different in West Africa and ECS Africa; reconfiguring food value chains;
policies and noms targeting key players and products of food systems. Etc.
Medium-sized cities; agri-food activities in rural areas; more transport and
storage facilities. Etc.
Secure access to land, to credit, infrastructures, techniques &
organizations; legal systems for cooperatives; connections to urban or
international markets; added value based on collective action and
voluntary quality standards; labour regulations; multi-activity. Etc.
Fight against trypanosomiases (through integrated means or identification
of non-infected zones in peri-urban areas; livestock-crops associations;
local feed; hardy animals; improved livestock management techniques. Etc
Diversity of varieties available; agroforestry, mixed cropping, associations,
input substitution, labor intensive, small mechanization and irrigation. Etc.

14. Key lessons for researchers
• New research questions about:
– Agricultural production systems / food and nutritional security.
– Governance / farming practices / land use / food security.
– Consumption habits & dietary transitions / food supply / farming practices /
land use.
– Strategies of agrifood systems’ actors / trade / food security.
– Processes of evolution of farm structures
• Richness of dialogue (a) between scientists of different
disciplines, and (b) between scientists and non-scientists.

15. For further information
http://www.cirad.fr/en/publications-resources/publishing/studies-and-
documents/agrimonde-terra-foresight-study
http://institut.inra.fr/en/Objectives/Informing-public-policy/Foresight/All-the-
news/Agrimonde-Terra-foresight-study
Articles
De Lattre-Gasquet M. and Treyer S. (2016). Agrimonde and Agrimonde-Terra: foresight approaches compared. IDS
Bulletin, issue 47, No. 4.
Brunelle T., 2015. Vers une prospective des impacts du changement climatique sur la sécurité alimentaire : les
enseignements du 5ème rapport du GIEC. AE&S vol.5, n°1, juin 2015 : 13-22.
De Lattre-Gasquet M., Donnars c., Marzin j., Piet L., 2014. Quel(s) avenir(s) pour les structures agricoles ? Cahier Demeter
n°15 : 169-196.
Guyomard H., Schmitt B., 2014. Les terres agricoles, un enjeu pour la sécurité alimentaire de la planète à l’acuité variable
selon les régions du monde. Cahier Demeter n°15, 101-118.
Lançon F., Mora O., Aubert F., 2014. L’extension urbaine à travers le monde : enjeux pour les villes et les campagnes.
Cahier Demeter n°15,83-100.
Manceron S., Ben-Ari T., Dumas P., 2014. Feeding proteins to livestock: Global land use and food vs. feed competition.
OCL 2014, 21 (4) D408.

16. Agrimonde-Terra
Land use and global food security
in 2050
A FORESIGHT EXERCISE
Thank you for your attention