Next generation technologies
to drive transformation
Dr. Ana María Loboguerrero
Head of Global Policy Research

HELPING SET GLOBAL AGENDAS

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5. Smarter consumption
patterns
1. Next generation technologies to
drive transformation
2. Differentiated adaptation and
development pathways
3. Policy enabling environments
that facilitate the transition
4. Aligning finance to drive the
transformation
CCAFS Donors
Alberto Millan CCAFS
Sonja Vermuelen WWF
Phillip Thornton CCAFS
Lindsay Stringer University of
Leeds
Tonya Rawe
CARE
BUSINESS UNUSUAL: DRIVING INNOVATION TO
ACHIEVE TRANSFORMATION AT SCALE
BUSINESS UNUSUAL: DRIVING INNOVATION TO ACHIEVE
TRANSFORMATION AT SCALE

Other big
challenges like
poverty
reduction, inequality
and emissions
reductions need to
be resolved
simultaneously.
Food systems must
also provide food of
high nutritional
quality and diversity
to support human
health.
The scale of the
food production
challenge: up to a
70% increase in
food availability by
the 2050s.
Additional
constraint of
ensuring that key
environmental
planetary
boundaries are not
exceeded in the
process.
To date, most
assessments of the
future of agriculture
and food have
focused on
examining
incremental
technologies and
investments.
CURRENT SITUATION

2017 there were 960
million mobile
subscriptions across
Africa,
with 80% penetration
Communications and banking
systems have been transformed
Technological change can
generate:
1. Very rapid sea changes
in social and cultural
systems
2. Transformation in
agriculture and food
systems
Current agricultural
technology options will not
be able to feed 9 billion
people and reach the
sustainable development
goals simultaneously
Mobile telephony in Africa 
To date, most assessments of the future of
agriculture and food have focused on examining
incremental technologies and investments.
2005 cell
phone penetration in
developing
countries was 23%
BLUE-SKY TECHNOLOGIES

FOOD SYSTEM DIMENSION
(e.g. production, process, storage)
STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS
• Pathways that target reducing the
food production demand curve
• Pathways that target filling the
production gap
• Pathways that involve avoiding
losses in current or future
production potential
Time horizon  around 20 years.
LOOKING AT CHANGE TO 2040
Focus: Technologies in relation to the elements of the food system and
in relation to the SDGs that are affected by agriculture.
Transforming global food systems: Blue Sky Technologies
≈ 80 technologies found
classified in 3 dimensions

Impact
on
SDGs
Artificial
Products
Robotics in
agriculture
Drones
Artificial
intelligence
Biofortified
crops
Genetic
modification
assisted
domestication of
new crops
Vertical
agriculture
Biologicals
replacing artificial
inputs
Molecular
printing
Others…
IMPLEMENTATION

Technology Primary Benefits and/or consequences Barriers to adoption Indirect consequences
Artificial products
Can potentially reduce negative impacts (e.g.
environmental) of production of these products.
E.g. Milk - Potential substitute to cow milk,
potential to be vegan friendly, no welfare issue,
potentially cheap with smaller land-use and GHG
impact.
Scaling-up to meet demand, and higher
cost than the products they are
replacing.
Loss of livelihood for those who
produce the product in a conventional
way
High energy requirements
Biofortified crops
Products with more desirable traits.
Given the dominant role cereals play in most
human diets, cereal traits and germplasm with
improved nutritive and health -promoting
attributes in cereal products that specifically target
these largely avoidable dietary- and lifestyle-
related diseases.
Better health and greater benefits for farmers.
Cost and time to develop biofortified
crops - Taylor and Duodu 2017, but
once developed they can represent a
"drop-in technology" as there is often
little or no impact on end-product
functionality.
Overdependence on particular
varieties
Examples of technologies and their effects

Technology Primary Benefits and/or consequences Barriers to adoption Indirect consequences
Robotics in agriculture
Robotics enable “smart” agriculture that
increases yields and reduces waste of water and
fertilizer. - Christensen et al. 2016
Enables farms to automate activities that were
previously the sole domain of humans (e.g. soft
grasp) or involved a significant amount of human
activity (e.g. to load/unload payloads)
Expense, establishment of new farming
systems
Regulation for autonomous machines in
fields
Factors limiting commercialization
and assimilation of agricultural
autonomous robot systems are unique
to each system and to
each task.
Loss of cultural/spiritual connection to
ag systems/natural environment; loss
of jobs/identify for people
in some systems.
Replacement food / feed
source – Insects
Potential to reduce negative environmental
impacts of current farming e.g. reduced GHG
emissions by minimizing the livestock sector
Consumer acceptance; development of
new market; commercialization
Impacts (e.g. environmental) of new
farming system
Examples of technologies and their effects

If we are serious about reaching the SDGs, then paradigm shifts
are necessary, including development and application of next
generation technologies.
There are many examples of potential technologies that may
have transformational (even disruptive) effects over the next 20
years.
Some of these next generation technologies include: artificial
meat, nitrogen fixation in cereals, reconfiguring plant
photosynthesis, asexual reproduction, replacement protein
sources, among others…
In the next two decades, many of these technologies will pass
from the realm of science fiction into reality.
For some of these technologies, there are profound socio-
cultural and governance issues associated with them that
society will have to grapple with.
KEY MESSAGES

THANK YOU
a.m.loboguerrero@cigar.org