Mapping the Protein Gap - Pathways to 2050

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  • Note To Presenter:Make sure to update your information in the title with the data and the title of the meetingThis is the opening slide, introduce yourself, and who you are, a little bit of your background. - This is a 25 minute presentation, with 5-10 minutes of questions at the end
  • -Pic 1 - Wilson...extreme "Hunger-The Disease"    -pic 2 - "Hunger Games-Finding Food" -picture from Haiti -pic 3 - "No Animal Protein" ....kids in Kenya -pic 4 - "Affordable Food" ....NYC Truck -pic 5 - "Good Calories".....mother w/ obese child -pic 6- "Choice, Quality"....my kids 
  • 2)Faces of Hunger - change to Faces of Food Security.  Want to have headline for each picture... -to personalize would like to put in pic 1....Wilson...extreme "Hunger-The Disease"    -pic 2 - "Hunger Games-Finding Food" -picture from Haiti -pic 3 - "No Animal Protein" ....kids in Kenya -pic 4 - "Affordable Food" ....NYC Truck -pic 5 - "Good Calories".....mother w/ obese child -pic 6- "Choice, Quality"....my kids I would like to replace the kid with the mcd's cup with a mom & obese child pic.  Maybe walking in Urban setting??   (pic 5). Here is how I would use this slide....if we had a collage of the 6 pics or 2 rows of 3 in this order.....it would show the faces of food security...and these levels.   even if we moved the descriptors to 2 words each....i then highlight the differences and that this touches all of us in some extreme or another...i then could stop on 2-3 and then end on my kids....    Another idea I had was in my opening, I could have a picture that is quite typical of an african child and "Hunger" above it...and I use this as a way to say we have given hunger the wrong image....it is more complex and more broadly impactful than the traditional "hunger" sterotype and then I move to my slide of the 6 faces of food security....    thoughts ?  this can be quick, but an impactful start....and then i move to a glass of milk.
  • The urgency and gravity of feeding our families is here and now… we can’t wait for 2050. Our path with your leadership and support is to focus on three areas: Innovation; consistent, reliable science based regulatory processes – foundation of assuring we can feed our future families – must start now. Choice; countries, families and mothers deserve the right to make their own choices - - not live by the choices of others – particularly when those choices impact their children’s food.Globalization; we must recognize that we are feeding a global market place – policies must consider global reach and sustainable systems outside of domestic borders.
  • Note to presenter:The FAO, the most global database available, adjusted their numbers in 2012, so we have adjusted our numbers to remain accurate. Please note we used to say, 50-100-70 and now we say 50-70-70 – due to the recalculation of FAO. We’re on our way to 9 billion people by 2050. By then, our growing global population will require an estimated 70% more food1,2 than we produce today.Unfortunately, we won’t have 70% more land available. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that added farmland will help produce only 20% of the additional food our planet will need in 2050, and 10% will come from increased cropping intensity.Accordingly, the FAO concludes that 70% of the world’s additional food needs can be produced only with new and existing agricultural technologies.3Sources:1. Green, R., et al. January 2005. “Farming and the Fate of Wild Nature.” Science 307: 550-555. 2. Tilman, D., et al. August 2002. “Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices.” Nature 418: 671-677.3. “World agriculture: toward 2015/2030.” 2002. United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Accessed December 2, 2008. <ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/004/y3557e/y3557e.pdf>.
  • Innovation is the primary ingredient to a food secure 2050.Innovation is not just products, but practices, ideas, innovative thinking. Its about access, it’s a out enabling access to innovations to food security.
  • The Center for Food Integrity (CFI) interviewed thought leaders around the world – from academicians to food company leaders to journalists covering global hunger – seeking their insight on the most pressing issues surrounding food security. It’s very telling that the top four answers all revolve around innovation. Use innovation to increase production and reduce environmental impact. Teach farmers around the world how to harness that technology. And don’t stop with production-focused innovation – tap into innovative solutions that will help make sure wholesome food reaches the developing world so people can feed their families. Most important, these experts pointed out that innovation doesn’t succeed on its own. Public policies must encourage it. We need to broaden choices, not limit them. We need to open borders to collaboration and trade, not close them. Of all the challenges ahead of us, policy will require the greatest courage – the confidence to believe in science instead of politics, and the political will to look to the future instead of finding quick ways to placate voters today. Last on the list – dead last – was organic production. No matter how you slice it, the experts don’t see organic agriculture as a realistic option for feeding the world. Depriving animals of better medicines, or keeping tools out of the hands of farmers that could help them fend off disease, insects or weeds, is not a viable approach to achieving food security.  
  • The goal (Success) – more people have access to safe, affordable food today. In closing, the urgency and gravity of feeding our families is here and now… we can’t wait for 2050. Our path with your leadership and support is to focus on three areas: Innovation; consistent, reliable science based regulatory processes – foundation of assuring we can feed our future families – must start now. Choice; countries, families and mothers deserve the right to make their own choices - - not live by the choices of others – particularly when those choices impact their children’s food.Globalization; we must recognize that we are feeding a global market place – policies must consider global reach and sustainable systems outside of domestic borders.
  • We must start with science and end with consumers and go to all 6 corners of the debate.Science – Outcomes must be science-basedEconomics – Shared opportunity for all playersEnvironment – Limited or no negative impactsEthical – The right thing to doAnimal well-being – Considering the well being of the animalConsumers – Keeping the consumer interest in focus
  • Do consumers want technology? Despite the imperative of making food affordable for the world’s poor, the myth persists that a majority of people are adamantly opposed to the use of cost-reducing food production technologies. The data, however, show otherwise.
  • The ICAS analysis started with more than 70 research sources. From those sources, the researchers selected and analyzed 35reports and studies about consumer attitudes and behaviors from around the world. Those findings were followed up with a validation study by The Nielsen Company. All told, these studies represent the opinions of more than 100,000 people in 26 countries. Here’s what we found. Source: 1. See Appendix.
  • 2010 Nielsen Omnibus Study – US Consumer s- 26,653 consumers chose Taste, Cost and Nutrition is the most important purchasing factors.2013 Nielsen Omnibus Studies – US & UK - ~25,000 consumers in each, chose the same top 3 factors, but in the United States, Cost moved to number 1 – the most important factor. (44% vs 32% in 2010)
  • Picture of a EU consumer - pondering type look - how do we measure?First, we change the discussion through these platforms –Food SecurityHealthy AnimalsAnimal well-beingInnovation
  • *The Consumer Union campaign was in the US of June last year, as an example of media traction on one innovation, antibiotics, as an example.
  • The goal (Success) – more people have access to safe, affordable food today. In closing, the urgency and gravity of feeding our families is here and now… we can’t wait for 2050. Our path with your leadership and support is to focus on three areas: Innovation; consistent, reliable science based regulatory processes – foundation of assuring we can feed our future families – must start now. Choice; countries, families and mothers deserve the right to make their own choices - - not live by the choices of others – particularly when those choices impact their children’s food.Globalization; we must recognize that we are feeding a global market place – policies must consider global reach and sustainable systems outside of domestic borders.
  • Food must be allowed to move. Open trade is a key to allowing for food security globally. Growing food in places with resources and moving it to place that need it, provides sustainable, affordable food in countries that cannot produce it.1.It provides consumers a lower cost thanwhat they would pay for within country (if the country supplied it)2.Due to efficiencies, productivity, we are able to more sustainably 3.Removal trade barriers (tariffs) allows for this to happenAnd Europe is one of these places, lots of resources, agriculturally significant, huge opportunity.PORKJapan: 51% self-sufficiencySouth Korea: 57%Mexico:  68%Oceania: 71%Russia: 68%China: 99% (but, as the world’s largest pork-consuming market with a growing middle class, it still represents a significant opportunity)
  • Reference: EU 27 PORK MEAT EXPORT 2011, Eurostat and FAS Offices in the EU.Talking Points:Consider where Europe is today in Pork Exports. The value to these countries that Europe holds in producing the product.Even though Russia is the most volume of pork exports from EU (754,00 ktons), a market like Japan, in 2011 actually pays more per unit.With EU lifting the Dairy quotas, there is increased opportunity for EU to further grow as a dairy region and feed other regions globally with their products
  • China has rapid growth as an importerThis demand will only continue as you consider where a lot of the middle class growth is occurring.Opportunity for countries and regions like Europe to supply a nation in need.
  • Global Meat/Poultry Exports (data in billion US$, by country).  Key points:  This is a growing sector, there is room for all, innovation and standard adoption will define future growth
  • Think about this call to action – take a stand. Have you had enough?Believe – establish your why, you have to believe this is an issues before anything else mattersExperience – go, get out of your bubble, go see one of these faces of hungerAct – Now act on it, identify your key influencers, engage on twitter, or just get on and observe the conversations.
  • Mapping the Protein Gap - Pathways to 2050

    1. 1. AgriVision 2013, Resourcify Jeff Simmons, Elanco @JeffSimmons2050, @Elanco Mapping the Protein Gap The Pathway to 2050
    2. 2. Hunger
    3. 3. The Faces of Food Security Hunger – The Disease Hunger Games No Animal Sourced Protein Affordable Food Good Calories
    4. 4. The Faces of Food Security Hunger – The Disease Hunger Games No Animal Sourced Protein Affordable Food Good Calories Choice, Quality
    5. 5. 3 Leading Solutions 1. Innovation – need to innovate 2. Choice – need for choice 3. Globalization – Trade, Resourcify optimally
    6. 6. Food, Choice, Sustainability 5020 World population will require 70% More food, and 70% Of this food must come from efficiency-improving technology3 Sources: 1. Green, R., et al. January 2005. “Farming and the Fate of Wild Nature.” Science 307: 550-555. 2. Tilman, D., et al. August 2002. “Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices.” Nature 418: 671-677. 3. “World agriculture: toward 2015/2030.” 2002. United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Accessed December 2, 2008. <ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/004/y3557e/y3557e.pdf>. In the year
    7. 7. Technology… The vital ingredient to making safe, affordable and sufficient food a reality When farmers increase their productivity, nutrition is improved and hunger and poverty are reduced. 1 All lives have equal value… Technology- practices, products, genetics –Bill Gates Sources: Gates Foundation January 2011 annual letter
    8. 8. Top Solutions from Thought Leaders 1.Innovation 2.Public Policy 3.Education 4.Food Distribution
    9. 9. 3 Leading Solutions 1. Innovation – need to innovate 2. Choice – need for choice 3. Globalization – Trade, Resourcify optimally
    10. 10. Economic Environment EthicalAnimal Well- being Consumers Science Anchor in Science – Moving to Consumers All 6 Corners of the Debate Technology equals safe, affordable and sufficient food
    11. 11. Do consumers want technology? Choice, a Consumers Right
    12. 12. 35 STUDIES 26 COUNTRIES OVER 101,000 CONSUMERS 2004-2013 Choice, a Consumers Rights The International Consumer Attitudes Study (ICAS) Updated May 2013 Source: The International Consumer Attitudes Study (ICAS), 2010 & 2013. Data on file.
    13. 13. ICAS: Lifestyle Buyer The International Consumer Attitudes Study (ICAS) Updated May 2013 Source: The International Consumer Attitudes Study (ICAS), 2010 & 2013. Data on file. 35 STUDIES 26 COUNTRIES OVER 101,000 CONSUMERS 2004-2013
    14. 14. Cost moves to the top
    15. 15. From… 1.News Stories 2.Call Inquiries 3.Aided Questions To… 1.Consumer Mentions 2.Spending Data 3.Unaided Questions What Really Matters How do we measure?
    16. 16. Putting it in Perspective June: Consumer’s Union Campaign Sept: Bacon Shortage Announcement Dec: William & Kate’s Baby Announcement 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec ArticlesDaily Antibiotics 46,000/year vs. nearly as many mentions in one day (Rumored bacon shortage and William & Kate’s baby announcement)
    17. 17. Lessons Learned from Innovations in the Food Chain 1. “No Surprises” to the retailers & regulators 2. No benefit to differentiating on the negatives 3. Monitor the right metrics 4. Be prepared to answer questions, when asked 5. Avoid “permanent decisions” in the storm
    18. 18. 3 Leading Solutions 1. Innovation – need to innovate 2. Choice – need for choice 3. Globalization – Trade, Resourcify optimally
    19. 19. Food Must Move . . . provides sustainable, affordable food in countries that can’t produce it. Growing food in places with resources . . . . . . and moving it to places that need it
    20. 20. EU Pork Exports 2011 Source: EU 27 PORK MEAT EXPORT 2011. Eurostat and FAS Offices in the EU. Russia = 1200,00 M€ Japan = 777,00 M€ China = 195,00 M€
    21. 21. $0.0 $0.2 $0.4 $0.6 $0.8 $1.0 $1.2 $1.4 US$ Billions Year U.S. Red Meat Exports to China/H. Kong Lamb,Goat Fr/Froz Beef Variety Meats Other Meats, Fr/Froz Beef & Veal Pork Variety Meats Pork
    22. 22. $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 USBillion$ Global Meat/Poultry Exports (Key Exporters) Others China Canada Australia EU-27 * Brazil U.S. Source: Global Trade Information Svcs, EU-27 includes only external exports outside of the union
    23. 23. Join the conversation @Elanco @JeffSimmons2050 BELIEVE  EXPERIENCE  ACT

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