The document discusses the challenges facing global food policy. It identifies five ongoing food crises: high and volatile international food prices, starvation, childhood hunger and malnutrition, obesity and diet-related disease, and threats to long-term global food production capacity. When food prices spike, governments, media, and speculators often overreact in unhelpful ways. The document argues that the most important policy challenges are improving food systems outside of farms, achieving sustainable intensification, and addressing nutrition and health through food systems. Real food prices need not necessarily rise in the long run if various productivity improvements are achieved.

1. Food Policy in Disarray:
The Challenges and Priorities
Per Pinstrup-Andersen
International Food Policy Research Institute
November 21, 2011

3. Understanding and Improving
Food Policy
 What?

4. Understanding and Improving
Food Policy
 What?
 How?

5. Understanding and Improving
Food Policy
 What?
 How?
 Who (Pol. Econ.)?

6. Understanding and Improving
Food Policy
 What?
 How?
 Who (Pol. Econ.)?
 A comprehensive systems approach

7. Understanding and Improving
Food Policy
 What?
 How?
 Who (Pol. Econ.)?
 A comprehensive systems approach
 Multisectoral/multidisciplinary

8. Understanding and Improving
Food Policy
 What?
 How?
 Who (Pol. Econ.)?
 A comprehensive systems approach
 Multisectoral/multidisciplinary
 A dynamic behavioral food system

9. A Dynamic Behavioral Food System
Change in behavior of:
 Consumers
Food System  Producers Food System
(Time period 1) (Time period 2)
 Market agents
 Government
 Resource owners
 NGOs
Incentives
Regulations
Knowledge

10. Five Food Crises
1. International food price increase and volatility

11. Five Food Crises
1. International food price increase and volatility
2. Starvation in the Horn of Eastern Africa

12. Five Food Crises
1. International food price increase and volatility
2. Starvation in the Horn of Eastern Africa
3. Hunger, nutrient deficiencies and death among
millions of children

13. Five Food Crises
1. International food price increase and volatility
2. Starvation in the Horn of Eastern Africa
3. Hunger, nutrient deficiencies and death among
millions of children
4. Overweight, obesity, chronic diseases and death
among millions of children and adults

14. Five Food Crises
1. International food price increase and volatility
2. Starvation in the Horn of Eastern Africa
3. Hunger, nutrient deficiencies and death among
millions of children
4. Overweight, obesity, chronic diseases and death
among millions of children and adults
5. The earth’s future productive capacity

15. The Unholy Trinity and the Jokers
The Trinity: Governments
News Media
Speculators
The Jokers: The Weather
Energy prices

16. Real Food Price Index
1961-2000
Source: FAO

17. Behavior of
Government, News Media and
Speculators
 Little policy action
 Little media attention (except 1995-96)
 No speculator interest

18. FAO Food Price Index
January 2000-January 2007
Source: FAO

19. Behavior of Government, News Media,
and Speculators (1)
 Neither governments, nor the media, got the
message

20. Behavior of Government, News Media,
and Speculators (1)
 Neither governments, nor the media, got the
message
 Export restrictions towards the end

21. Behavior of Government, News Media,
and Speculators (1)
 Neither governments, nor the media, got the
message
 Export restrictions towards the end
 Extreme weather events

22. Volatility in Weather Patterns
Irregular
Drought Flooding Rainfall Strong Winds
Patterns
Production
Volatility

23. Production Volatility
Supply Responses Speculation
Government Policy Government Policies
Market Information Energy Prices
Demand Changes
Price Volatility

24. FAO Food Price Index
January 2007-July 2008
Source: FAO

25. Behavior of Government, News Media,
and Speculators (2)
 Short-term government interventions

26. Behavior of Government, News Media,
and Speculators (2)
 Short-term government interventions
 Protection of middle-income urban consumers

27. Behavior of Government, News Media,
and Speculators (2)
 Short-term government interventions
 Protection of middle-income urban consumers
 Export restrictions and reduced import tariffs

28. Behavior of Government, News Media,
and Speculators (2)
 Short-term government interventions
 Protection of middle-income urban consumers
 Export restrictions and reduced import tariffs
 Focus on national supplies and stock build-up

29. Behavior of Government, News Media,
and Speculators (2)
 Short-term government interventions
 Protection of middle-income urban consumers
 Export restrictions and reduced import tariffs
 Focus on national supplies and stock build-up
 Irrational expectations

30. Behavior of Government, News Media,
and Speculators (2)
 Short-term government interventions
 Protection of middle-income urban consumers
 Export restrictions and reduced import tariffs
 Focus on national supplies and stock build-up
 Irrational expectations
 Exaggerated media response

32. Behavior of Government, News Media,
and Speculators (2)
 Short-term government interventions
 Protection of middle-income urban consumers
 Export restrictions and reduced import tariffs
 Focus on national supplies and stock build-up
 Irrational expectations
 Exaggerated media response
 Food riots

33. Behavior of Government, News Media,
and Speculators (2)
 Short-term government interventions
 Protection of middle-income urban consumers
 Export restrictions and reduced import tariffs
 Focus on national supplies and stock build-up
 Irrational expectations
 Exaggerated media response
 Food riots
 Moral hazards

34. FAO Food Price Index
June 2008 – June 2009
Source: FAO

35. Behavior of Government, News Media,
and Speculators (3)
 Silence
 Delayed media response

36. FAO Food Price Index
October 2010-October 2011
(2002-2004 =- 100)
Food Price Index
250
240
230
220
210
200 Food Price Index
190
180
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Oct-11
Jul-11
Source: FAO, www.fao.org/worldfoodsiutation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en

37. Behavior of Government, News
Media and Speculators
 Renewed apocalypse talk by media
 Nervous speculators
 Confusion among governments
 Waiting for the next extreme weather event

38. What are the Most Important
Policy Challenges?

39. A Focus on the Smallholder?
Source: World Economic Forum, Realizing a New Vision for
Agriculture: A roadmap for Stakeholders, 2010.

40. What are the Most Important
Policy Challenges (1)?
 Outside the farm

41. Why Outside the Farm?
 Low total supply elasticity (old story)

42. Why Outside the Farm?
 Low total supply elasticity (old story)
 Large yield gaps (old story)

43. Why Outside the Farm?
 Low total supply elasticity (old story)
 Large yield gaps (old story)
 Successful farm-focused project (reduced yield
gaps, increased incomes)
 Sasakawa, One Acre Fund, Millennium Villages, etc.
 Underutilized potential gains from existing
technology
 Temporal removal of external constraints
 Gains not sustainable when project exits

44. Why Outside the Farm?
(Cont.)
 Demand constraints?

45. Why Outside the Farm?
(Cont.)
 Demand constraints?
 Large post harvest losses

46. Why Outside the Farm?
(Cont.)
 Demand constraints?
 Large post harvest losses
 Rapidly increasing demand for post harvest
activities

47. Why Outside the Farm?
(Cont.)
 Demand constraints?
 Large post harvest losses
 Rapidly increasing demand for post harvest
activities
 Insufficient research allocated to the post harvest
portion of the food system

48. Why Outside the Farm?
(Cont.)
 Demand constraints?
 Large post harvest losses
 Rapidly increasing demand for post harvest
activities
 Insufficient research allocated to the post harvest
portion of the food system
 Adverse trade policies

49. What are the Most Important
Policy Challenges (1)?
 Outside the farm
 Specific policy interventions context specific
 Likely to include:
 Infrastructure investments
 Institutional innovation
 Input and output market development
 Pre- and post harvest focused research
 Facilitation of small-scale agri-business

50. What are the Most Important
Policy Challenges (2)?
 Sustainable intensification

51. Environmental Kuznets Curve

52. What are the Most Important
Policy Challenges (2)?
 Sustainable intensification
 Multiple wins

53. Hypothetical Relationships Between
Income and Deforestation/Soil Mining

54. What are the Most Important
Policy Challenges (2)?
 Sustainable intensification
 Multiple wins
 Full costing (natural resources and climate change)

55. Hypothetical Relationships Between
Income and Deforestation/Soil Mining

56. What are the Most Important
Policy Challenges (2)?
 Sustainable intensification
 Multiple wins
 Full costing (natural resources and climate change)
 International institutional innovation

57. What are the Most Important
Policy Challenges (2)?
 Sustainable intensification
 Multiple wins
 Full costing (natural resources and climate change)
 International institutional innovation
 Achieving nutrition and health goals through
the food system
 Identifying pathways, win-wins and trade-offs
 Pursuing diversity in production and consumption

58. What are the Most Important
Policy Challenges (2)? (Cont.)
 Strengthening international institutions
 Concentration, competition and anti-trust rules
 Land grabbing
 Enhancing price transmission
 Clarifying and enforcing trade rules

59. What are the Most Important
Policy Challenges (2)? (Cont.)
 Strengthening international institutions
 Concentration, competition and anti-trust rules
 Land grabbing
 Enhancing price transmission
 Clarifying and enforcing trade rules
 Learning to live with food price volatility

60. Maize Weekly Price Minus
12-Month Moving Average
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80

61. Rice Weekly Price Minus
12-Month Moving Average
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150

62. Wheat Weekly Price Minus
12-Month Moving Average
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
1998 1999 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

63. What are the Most Important
Policy Challenges (2)?
 Strengthening international institutions
 Concentration, competition and anti-trust rules
 Land grabbing
 Enhancing price transmission
 Clarifying and enforcing trade rules
 Learning to live with food price volatility
 Learning to live with higher real food prices?

64. What are the Most Important
Policy Challenges (2)?
 Strengthening international institutions
 Concentration, competition and anti-trust rules
 Land grabbing
 Enhancing price transmission
 Clarifying and enforcing trade rules
 Learning to live with food price volatility
 Learning to live with higher real food prices?
 Projections or predictions?

65. World Price Increases for Selected Crops
Under Various Scenarios, 2010-2050
(Percent Change from 2010)
Source: IFPRI, Food Security and Climate Change, 2010,
http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ib66.pdf

66. Real Food Price Changes Predicted
Over the Next 20 Years (%)
200
180
160
140
120
100 2030 Baseline
80 2030 Climate Change
60
40
20
0
Livestock Wheat Paddy Rice Maize
Source: Growing a Better Future: Food Justice in a
Resource-Constrained World, 2011, Oxfam

67. Real Food Prices
Need Not Increase
 Moral hazard

68. Real Food Prices
Need Not Increase
 Moral hazard
 Reducing yield gaps

69. Reducing Yield Gaps
 Removing off-farm constraints
 Infrastructure
 Institutions

70. Reducing Yield Gaps
 Removing off-farm constraints
 Infrastructure
 Institutions
 Risk management

71. Reducing Yield Gaps
 Removing off-farm constraints
 Infrastructure
 Institutions
 Risk management
 Property rights

72. Real Food Prices
Need Not Increase
 Moral hazard
 Reducing yield gaps
 Ending stock build-ups

73. Real Food Prices
Need Not Increase
 Moral hazard
 Reducing yield gaps
 Ending stock build-ups
 Drawing underused land into production

76. Real Food Prices
Need Not Increase
 Moral hazard
 Reducing yield gaps
 Ending stock build-ups
 Drawing underused land into production
 Reduce post harvest losses

77. Real Food Prices
Need Not Increase
 Moral hazard
 Reducing yield gaps
 Ending stock build-ups
 Drawing underused land into production
 Reduce post harvest losses
 Improve water use efficiency

78. Real Food Prices
Need Not Increase
 Moral hazard
 Reducing yield gaps
 Ending stock build-ups
 Drawing underused land into production
 Reduce post harvest losses
 Improve water use efficiency
 Reduce desalination costs

79. Real Food Prices
Need Not Increase
 Moral hazard
 Reducing yield gaps
 Ending stock build-ups
 Drawing underused land into production
 Reduce post harvest losses
 Improve water use efficiency
 Reduce desalination costs
 End biofuel mandates and subsidies

80. Real Food Prices
Need Not Increase
 Moral hazard
 Reducing yield gaps
 Ending stock build-ups
 Drawing underused land into production
 Reduce post harvest losses
 Improve water use efficiency
 Reduce desalination costs
 End biofuel mandates and subsidies
 Take appropriate policy action

81. Rhetoric
Declarations
Plans Action
Targets