Presentation delivered by Dr. Per Pinstrup-Andersen (Cornell University, USA) at Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security. March 25 - 28, 2014, Ciudad Obregon, Mexico. http://www.borlaug100.org

1. Necessary Policies
Per Pinstrup-Andersen
Celebrating 100 Years of Dr.
Norman Borlaug
Obregon, Mexico, 25-28 March 2014

3. Future yield increases will come from
1/3 Breeding
1/3 Agronomy
1/3 Policy
Future yield increases will come from
1/3 Breeding
1/3 Agronomy
1/3 Policy
Hans Braun’s Assessment

4. What do we want from food
and agricultural systems?
 Food Security and good nutrition

5. What do we want from food
and agricultural systems?
 Food Security and good nutrition
 Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use

6. What do we want from food
and agricultural systems?
 Food Security and good nutrition
 Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use
 Reasonable incomes for farmers

7. What do we want from food
and agricultural systems?
 Food Security and good nutrition
 Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use
 Reasonable incomes for farmers
 Reasonable prices for consumers

8. What do we want from food
and agricultural systems?
 Food Security and good nutrition
 Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use
 Reasonable incomes for farmers
 Reasonable prices for consumers
 Meeting Non-food Demands

9. What do we want from food
and agricultural systems?
 Food Security and good nutrition
 Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use
 Reasonable incomes for farmers
 Reasonable prices for consumers
 Meeting Non-food Demands
 Support of general economic growth

10. What do we want from
agricultural research?
 More food and non-food per unit of land,
water, labor and capital

11. What do we want from
agricultural research?
 More food and non-food per unit of land,
water, labor and capital
 Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.

12. What do we want from
agricultural research?
 More food and non-food per unit of land,
water, labor and capital
 Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.
 Adaptation to climate change

13. What do we want from
agricultural research?
 More food and non-food per unit of land,
water, labor and capital
 Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.
 Adaptation to climate change
 Reduced poverty and malnutrition

14. What do we want from
agricultural research?
 More food and non-food per unit of land,
water, labor and capital
 Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.
 Adaptation to climate change
 Reduced poverty and malnutrition
 Appropriate response to diet transition

15. What do we want from
agricultural research?
 More food and non-food per unit of land,
water, labor and capital
 Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.
 Adaptation to climate change
 Reduced poverty and malnutrition
 Appropriate response to diet transition
 Stability in production and prices

16. Annual Average Population
Growth Rate, %

17. Billions of Middle Class Asians
and Percent of the
Global Middle Class 2009-2030
Year Billions Percent
2009 0.5 28
2020 1.7 54
2030 3.2 66
Source: Kharas 2010

18. The Asian Middle Class’ Purchasing
Power (Billions 2005 PPP Dollars)
and Percent of the World’s Middle
Class’ Total Purchasing Power
Year Billions Percent
2009 5.0 23
2020 14.8 42
2030 32.6 59
Source: Kharas 2010

23. Suggested Policy Priority 1
 Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic
markets and Human Resources

24. Suggested Policy Priority 1
 Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic
markets and Human Resources
 Feeder roads

25. Suggested Policy Priority 1
 Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic
markets and Human Resources
 Feeder roads
 Appropriate institutions
 Farmer associations
 Public sector institutions (contract enforcement, weights and
measures, etc.)

26. Suggested Policy Priority 1
 Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic
markets and Human Resources
 Feeder roads
 Appropriate institutions
 Farmer associations
 Public sector institutions (contract enforcement, weights and
measures, etc.)
 Market information, access to inputs, e.g. seed, fertilizers

27. Suggested Policy Priority 1
 Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic
markets and Human Resources
 Feeder roads
 Appropriate institutions
 Farmer associations
 Public sector institutions (contract enforcement, weights and
measures, etc.)
 Market information, access to inputs, e.g. seed, fertilizers
 Water management infrastructure

28. Suggested Policy Priority 1
 Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic
markets and Human Resources
 Feeder roads
 Appropriate institutions
 Farmer associations
 Public sector institutions (contract enforcement, weights and
measures, etc.)
 Market information, access to inputs, e.g. seed, fertilizers
 Water management infrastructure
 Primary education, health care and improved sanitation

29. Suggested Policy Priority 2
 Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to
invest in agriculture and the supply chain

30. Suggested Policy Priority 2
 Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to
invest in agriculture and the supply chain
 Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders

31. Suggested Policy Priority 2
 Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to
invest in agriculture and the supply chain
 Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders
 Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for
market and production risks)

32. Suggested Policy Priority 2
 Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to
invest in agriculture and the supply chain
 Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders
 Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for
market and production risks)
 Public goods investments, including research

33. Suggested Policy Priority 2
 Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to
invest in agriculture and the supply chain
 Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders
 Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for
market and production risks)
 Public goods investments, including research
 Strengthen the purchasing power of small-holders

34. Suggested Policy Priority 2
 Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to
invest in agriculture and the supply chain
 Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders
 Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for
market and production risks)
 Public goods investments, including research
 Strengthen the purchasing power of small-holders
 Establish competitive funds for technology development

35. Suggested Policy Priority 2
 Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to
invest in agriculture and the supply chain
 Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders
 Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for
market and production risks)
 Public goods investments, including research
 Strengthen the purchasing power of small-holders
 Establish competitive funds for technology development
 Assure incentives for private sector innovation

36. Suggested Policy Priority 3
 Remove international trade distortions (both
import and export restrictions)

37. Suggested Policy Priority 3
 Remove international trade distortions (both
import and export restrictions)
 Regulation of Land Grabbing

38. Suggested Policy Priority 3
 Remove international trade distortions (both
import and export restrictions)
 Regulation of Land Grabbing
 Clarity on water and land tenure

39. Suggested Policy Priority 3
 Remove international trade distortions (both
import and export restrictions)
 Regulation of Land Grabbing
 Clarity on water and land tenure
 Reduce food waste and losses

40. Suggested Policy Priority 3
 Remove international trade distortions (both
import and export restrictions)
 Regulation of Land Grabbing
 Clarity on water and land tenure
 Reduce food waste and losses
 Move towards full costing

41. Suggested Policy Priority 3
 Remove international trade distortions (both
import and export restrictions)
 Regulation of Land Grabbing
 Clarity on water and land tenure
 Reduce food waste and losses
 Move towards full costing
 Pursue multiple-win solutions

42. The Policy-Maker’s
Temptation: Price Policy
 Keeping food prices low

43. The Policy-Maker’s
Temptation: Price Policy
 Keeping food prices low
 Price stabilization

44. Price Volatility
Source: Minot, N. (2013). How Volatile Are African Food Prices?
IFPRI Research Brief 19, IFPRI, Washington, DC.
World Market Selected African Countries

45. The Policy-Maker’s
Temptation: Price Policy
 Keeping food prices low
 Price stabilization
 Social safety nets, (un)targeted subsidies

46. The Policy-Maker’s
Temptation: Price Policy
 Keeping food prices low
 Price stabilization
 Social safety nets, (un)targeted subsidies
 Protecting food in an eco-economy

47. The Policy-Maker’s
Temptation: Price Policy
 Keeping food prices low
 Price stabilization
 Social safety nets, (un)targeted subsidies
 Protecting food in an eco-economy
 Fiscal costs, supply response and surpluses

48. Thai Rice Mountains
Source: AFP Photo/Pornchai Kittiwongsakul

49. India – Grain Stock
2005/06 – 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011 2012
80
Millioner
Tons
65
54
25
15

50. Surplus Grain in India 2012

51. Maize Stocks in Zambia 2012
Photo courtesy William J. Burke

52. Rotting Maize in Zambia 2012
Photo courtesy William J. Burke

53. Up Close:
Maize in Zambia 2012
Photo courtesy William J. Burke

54. Annual Maize Production in
Zambia, 2005/08 and 2010/2011
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2005-08 2010-11
2.8
Million
Tons
1.4
Source: Jayne et al., 2011

55. Rhetoric
Declarations
Plans
Targets
Action

57. http://www.fao.org/cfs/cfs-hlpe