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Rising Food Prices and Changing      Terms of Trade for Farmers       Bjorn Van Campenhout – IFPRI, KampalaUganda Knowledg...
Impact of price changes on welfare:
FAOThe long-term downward trend in agricultural commodity prices threatens the food security of hundreds of millions of pe...
World BankThe combination of depressed world prices  …have discouraged farm output and hence  lowered rural incomes. Becau...
IFPRIThe combination of agricultural protectionism and subsidies  in industrialized countries [leading to low prices] has ...
So are high prices good or bad• Depends… – If you sell it is good – If you buy, it is bad Most households in Uganda both p...
An indexNeeded:•Survey data (UNHS 2005/2006)•Price data: FoodNet
Components of the index
disaggregation                 Rural vs Urban                 Poor vs rich                 Poor vs rich vs urban          ...
Effect on poverty
Conclusions and looking at the future• Are farmers best off with average prices?• Good data allows the construction of sim...
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Pres welfare index

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Pres welfare index

  1. 1. Rising Food Prices and Changing Terms of Trade for Farmers Bjorn Van Campenhout – IFPRI, KampalaUganda Knowledge Needs for Agricultural Policy and Program Design – A SAKSS Uganda workshop 27 October 2011; Imperial Royale Hotel, Kampala, Uganda
  2. 2. Impact of price changes on welfare:
  3. 3. FAOThe long-term downward trend in agricultural commodity prices threatens the food security of hundreds of millions of people in some of the worlds poorest developing countries (2005) <>The number of hungry people increased by about 50 million in 2007 as a result of high food prices (2008)
  4. 4. World BankThe combination of depressed world prices …have discouraged farm output and hence lowered rural incomes. Because the majority of the world‟s poorest households depend on agriculture and related activities for their livelihood, this … is especially alarming. (1990) <>The increase in food prices represents a major crisis for the worlds poor. (2008)
  5. 5. IFPRIThe combination of agricultural protectionism and subsidies in industrialized countries [leading to low prices] has limited agricultural growth in the developing world, increasing poverty and weakening food security in vulnerable countries. (2002) <>…rapidly rising food prices began to further threaten the food security of poor people around the world. … The current food-price crisis can have long-term, detrimental effects on peoples’ health and livelihoods, and can contribute to the further impoverishment of many of the worlds poorest people. (2007)
  6. 6. So are high prices good or bad• Depends… – If you sell it is good – If you buy, it is bad Most households in Uganda both produce and consume the same agricultural commodities
  7. 7. An indexNeeded:•Survey data (UNHS 2005/2006)•Price data: FoodNet
  8. 8. Components of the index
  9. 9. disaggregation Rural vs Urban Poor vs rich Poor vs rich vs urban vs rural
  10. 10. Effect on poverty
  11. 11. Conclusions and looking at the future• Are farmers best off with average prices?• Good data allows the construction of simple tools that are invaluable for policy makers (and journalists, and politicians,…)• Future: – publish updates of index as more data comes in – Make interactive version, so that researchers can produce indices for disaggregation they want (eg. farmers with cashcrops and farmers without, )

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