Diversity has several benefits. Four approaches were discussed for modeling future scenarios around food and agriculture: Agrimonde Terra, Foodsecure, SIMPLE, and analyzing economic growth convergence. Agrimonde Terra found that with sustainable intensification and agroecology, global food needs could be met while stabilizing climate change and increasing ecosystem services. However, an insecure access to land could lead to a dual system, runaway climate change, and poor health outcomes. Foodsecure developed four scenarios around changing food prices. SIMPLE used Monte Carlo analysis to show a likely decline in food prices but potential for increases with certain productivity or demographic changes. Analyzing economic growth convergence matters, as faster growth in developing countries could significantly increase

1. Benefits of diversity
Will Martin
18 January 2017

2. Four approaches
• Cirad-INRA: Agrimonde Terra
– Qualitative scenarios with quantitative impacts
• Foodsecure: Quantifying broad scenarios
• SIMPLE: Focus on food & land demand
• Convergence: Is growth faster in poor ctries?

3. Agrimonde-Terra: Unexpected result
The urgent need to change pathway
Land use
changes
in Mha
Qualitative assumptions (sustainable intensification for cropping livestock and agroecological livestock)
 Secure access to land. Stabilization of global warming, carbon storage, energy transition. Crops –
livestock associations. Rediversification of crops and crop systems. Agricultural employment;
ecosystem services provided by land
Qualitative hypotheses
Insecure access to land
 dual system.
Runaway climate.
Globalized value chains.
Few services provided
by land.
Little employment in
agriculture.
Lack of nutriments.
Overweight and non-
comunicable diet-
related diseases.
Inequalities.
Poor biodiversity and
low resilience of
systems.

4. 4 Foodsecure Scenarios

5. Foodsecure: Prices will change
Wheat Real PriceRice Real Price
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
2033
2036
2039
2042
2045
2048
PaascheIndex_Base2011,RMEAT
Meat Real Price

6. • Aggregate demand for food
• Supply
– Land
– Intermediates
– Productivity
SIMPLE Drivers

7. Monte Carlo
Analysis: 5,000
different model
predictions
SIMPLE: account for uncertainty in
drivers & economic responses
66% of simulations
show a LR price
decline
Source: Hertel, Baldos and van der
Mensbrugghe (2016)
But can’t rule out
significant price
rises if:
- Fertility
declines slow
- Income growth
is stronger
- Productivity
pessimists are
proven right

8. Convergence: Faster growth in South?
0.511.52
(tons/capita/year)
0
5000
1000015000
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
GDP per capita, PPP 2005 $
Fitted Calorie Consumption Curve Fitted CE Consumption Curve

9. Growth convergence matters 2009-50
2009 2030 2050
CE Cons 6360 9326 12249
CE Prod 6360 10073 15019
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
(mil.Tons)
Uniform Growth
2009 2030 2050
CE Cons 6360 10107 14905
CE Prod 6360 10125 15978
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
(mil.Tons)
Rapid Convergence

10. Conclusions
 Forecasting is difficult
 Especially when it involves the future
 Can’t know what will happen
 Although broad regimes group key drivers
 More value in the deviations from a central projection
 Than in the projection itself?