OS18 - Open Session 2018 Borgo Egnazia (Puglia), Italy 29 - 31 /10/2018 EuFMD Sessions\Open Session\Archive-2018\Open 2018 - Italy\6. Online & Streaming\PPTs

1. OS18
I. Keskin, O. Caglar, F. Rosso, C. Potzsch, P. Kostoulas,
N. Bulut, U. Uzun
Spatial Autocorrelation of
Foot-and-Mouth Disease
Data in Turkey Between 2008
and 2018
31/10/2018 Global Vaccine Security – OS18: Oct 2018, Italy

2. OS18
• FMD in Turkey
• Objectives
• Materials and Methods
• Results
• Conclusion
Outline
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3. OS18
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute
• Endemic in Anatolia
• Serotypes
• O PanAsiaII/Qom
• A (Asia/GVII) and A (Asia/GVII)/Sam16
• Notifiable disease
• “Veterinary Services, Plant Health,
Food and Feed Law”-No 5996-Official
Journal no. 27610 of 13 June 2010
• “Notifiable Animal Diseases and Their
Notification Regulations”-Official Journal
no. 27823-22 January 2011
Year
Large
Ruminant
Population
Small
Ruminant
Population
2008 10.946.239 29.596.728
2009 10.811.165 26.904.274
2010 11.454.526 29.410.173
2011 12.483.969 32.340.726
2012 14.022.347 35.782.519
2013 14.532.848 38.509.795
2014 14.244.673 41.462.349
2015 14.127.837 41.924.100
2016 14.222.228 41.329.232
2017 16.105.025 44.312.308
2018 17.338.375 47.362.281
FMD in Turkey
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4. OS18
FREE
TURKEY
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5. OS18
• Between 2008 and 2018
• to estimate the spatial autocorrelation of FMD data in
Turkey
• to statistically identify the association between the
provinces of Turkey (excluding Thrace region) in terms of
the occurence of FMD outbreaks and the cases
Objectives
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6. OS18
• Materials
• GDFC-The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
• OIE (International Office des Epizooties)
• Province, year, month, species, FMD case-outbreak numbers
Foot and mouth
disease
Month Province Serotype(s)
New
outbreaks
Total
outbreaks Species
Family
Name Latin Name
Measuring
units Susceptible Cases Deaths
Killed and
disposed of
Slaughtere
d
Vaccination
in response
to the
outbreak(s)
Jan Adana O 0 1bov Animals ... ... ... ... ... ...
Adiyaman O 1 1bov Animals 30 9 0 0 0 158
Agri O 1 3bov Animals 66 30 0 0 0 200
Amasya
Not typed,
O 4 5bov Animals 832 49 0 0 0 13876
Materials and Methods
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7. OS18
• Methods
• R Studio 1.1.459 version
• Spatial Autocorrelation-Moran’s I
• Kruskal Wallis Test
• Bonferoni Correction
Materials and Methods
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8. OS18
• Moran’s I Spatial autocorrelation-cases, outbreaks
(2008-first 6 months of 2018)
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9. OS18
• Descriptive analysis
N= 264546 cases
7827 3682
67079
45515
20313
51485
6590
8690
22752
13739
16874
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total FMD Cases in Turkey Between 2008 and 2018
(First 6 months)
Results
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10. OS18
Species Number of FMD Cases
Cattle 208880
Ovine 42316
Caprine 13350
Total 264546
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11. OS18
N= 9724 outbreaks
255 209
2091
2006
1088
1545
318
591
794
359
468
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total FMD Outbreaks in Turkey Between 2008 and 2018
(First 6 months)
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12. OS18
Species Number of FMD Outbreaks
Cattle 7973
Ovine 1307
Caprine 444
Total 9724
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13. OS18
7
4
7 8 8
26
14
2
31
44
13
5
17
4
56
11
1616
8 7 7
0
42
8
17
0
6
35
23
41
16
7 6
13
3 3
24
9
0
4 4
29
2
26
1212
6
32
9
5 6
16
10
4 3 2 2
17
20
14
4 4
25
5
16
109
19
5
0
17
4
29
11
6
34
31
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Adana
Afyon
Aksaray
Ankara
Ardahan
Aydin
Bartin
Bayburt
Bingol
Bolu
Bursa
Cankiri
Denizli
Duzce
Erzincan
Eskisehir
Giresun
Hakkari
Igdir
Istanbul
K. Maras
Karaman
Kastamonu
Kirikkale
Kilis
Konya
Malatya
Mardin
Mugla
Nevsehir
Ordu
Rize
Samsun
Sinop
Sanliurfa
Tokat
Tunceli
Van
Yozgat
Number of FMD Cases per 10.000 LR in Turkey Between 2008 and 2018
(First 6 months)
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14. OS18
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10
666
136
12
28
153
478
153
87
4
118
61
305
670
43
196
610
113
24
238
83
47
186
16
214
37
327
390
21
6
4
24
287
126
94
82
61
48
169
2
65
232
136
360
150
249
25
224
91
153
18
23
108
103
389
84
79
13
34
192
355
18
345
329
283
39
30
377
89
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Adana
Afyon
Aksaray
Ankara
Ardahan
Aydin
Bartin
Bilecik
Bolu
Bursa
Cankiri
Denizli
Elazig
Erzurum
Gaziantep
Hatay
Isparta
Izmir
Karabuk
Kars
Kayseri
Kirikkale
Kocaeli
Kutahya
Manisa
Mersin
Mus
Nigde
Samsun
Siirt
Sirnak
Tokat
Usak
Yalova
Zonguldak
Number of FMD Cases per 1.000.000 SR Between 2008 and 2018
(First 6 months)

15. OS18
26540
43192
67555
94267
10460
10934
11598
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000
Aegean
Black Sea
Central Anatolia
Eastern Anatolia
Marmara
Mediterrenean
Southeast Anatolia
Total FMD Cases in the Geographic Regions of Turkey
Between 2008 and 2018 (First 6months)
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16. OS18
120109
144437
FMD Cases in Turkey Between
2008 and 2018 (First 6 months)
Buffer Zone-East Part West Part
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
FMD Cases in Turkey Between 2008
and 2018 (First 6 months)
Buffer Zone-East Part West Part
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17. OS18
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
FMD Cases According to the Months Between 2008 and 2018
(First 6 months)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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18. OS18
• Statistical analysis
MORAN'S I SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION ANALYSIS FOR FMD CASE NUMBERS
Year Observed Expected Standart Deviation p - value
2008 0,018339914 -0,012987013 0,015108543 0,038129688
2009 0,01683454 -0,012987013 0,015123505 0,048624687
2010 0,026795921 -0,012987013 0,014338978 0,005529327
2011 0,035132162 -0,012987013 0,015711145 0,002193195
2012 0,008737703 -0,012987013 0,014900798 0,144852542
2013 0,020874602 -0,012987013 0,0119636 0,004649175
2014 0,00542918 -0,012987013 0,011567393 0,111367158
2015 0,024766339 -0,012987013 0,016121559 0,019191361
2016 -0,015635866 -0,012987013 0,01424934 0,852528667
2017 0,003999412 -0,012987013 0,015349982 0,268463102
2018 0,007685935 -0,012987013 0,014366415 0,150156898
2008-2018 0,027499316 -0,012987013 0,013758543 0,00325435
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21. OS18
MORAN'S I SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION ANALYSIS FOR FMD OUTBREAK NUMBERS
Year Observed Expected Standart Deviation p - value
2008 0,039743032 -0,012987013 0,016552058 0,001443997
2009 0,060582711 -0,012987013 0,016481118 8,05E+08
2010 -0,004034415 -0,012987013 0,016486886 0,587120646
2011 0,063231268 -0,012987013 0,016566175 4,21E+08
2012 0,095084012 -0,012987013 0,01586701 9,69E+02
2013 0,004216956 -0,012987013 0,01175472 0,143308835
2014 0,005097827 -0,012987013 0,011941379 0,129907092
2015 0,019883665 -0,012987013 0,016633245 0,048131721
2016 0,02036258 -0,012987013 0,016471488 0,04289961
2017 0,003758416 -0,012987013 0,016380873 0,306660236
2018 0,006122037 -0,012987013 0,016433713 0,244912425
2008-2018 0,032452892 -0,012987013 0,016372927 0,005514956
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24. OS18
• Statistical analysis
Kruskal-Wallis Test Result for Outbreaks
Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test
data: ozone$All_years_Sum_OUTBReak by ozone$Border
Kruskal-Wallis chi-squared = 11.824, df = 2,
p-value = 0.002706
Kruskal-Wallis Test Result for Cases
Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test
data: ozone$All_years_Sum_CASE by ozone$Border
Kruskal-Wallis chi-squared = 0.87295, df = 2,
p-value = 0.6463
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25. OS18
• Statistical analysis
Bonferoni Results
Dunn (1964) Kruskal-Wallis multiple comparison
p-values adjusted with the Bonferroni method.
Comparison Z P.unadj P.adj
1 1 - 2 -0.9759809 0.329073925 0.987221774
2 1 - 3 -3.0691856 0.002146432 0.006439296
3 2 - 3 -2.3022070 0.021323499 0.063970496
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26. OS18
• Work in progress
• Spatial autocorrelation for some years-cases/outbreaks
• Significant difference-buffer zone and western part-
outbreak numbers
• Aim for the eastern part to have similar capacity as
western part on the awareness, reporting, vaccine
coverage, booster vaccination
• OI WS-Ankara, technical support of EuFMD
• Shorter time period to see the potential improvement-
spatiotemporal analysis
Conclusion
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27. OS18
Global Vaccine Security – OS18: Oct 2018, Italy