LSD symposium - H. Bergmann - Systemic review and expert ranking of potential risk factors for lumpy skin disease

1. Systematic Review and Expert Ranking of potential
Risk Factors for Lumpy Skin Disease
EU #773701
FAO Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 14-16 March, 2023, Rome
H. Bergmann, P. Maksimov, S. Babiuk, K. Dietze, J. Gethmann, J. Dups-Bergmann,
P.M. Beard, E. Tuppurainen, F.J. Conraths, C. Sauter-Louis

2. Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Image: FAO, EMPRES-i
Lumpy Skin Disease Spread: Case reports 2015 to 2023
EU #773701

3. Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Lumpy Skin Disease Spread: Case reports 2015 to 2023
EU #773701
Resource allocation?
•Surveillance
•Prevention
•Control
Image: FAO, EMPRES-i

4. Image: Farm Weekly WA 2021
Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Lumpy Skin Disease Spread What are the risk factors?
EU #773701

5. Objective: What are potential risk factors?
EU #773701
Population Pathogen
Vector
Environment

6. Population Pathogen
Vector
Environment
Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Objective: What are potential risk factors? – Systematic literature search to find what is there!
EU #773701
• PubMED
• Scopus
• Web of Science
• EFSA Journal
• FAO “AGRIS”
• Thesis repositories
Designed search strings
to find “RISK” and
“LSD” related
literature
?

7. Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Screening & Selection
EU #773701

8. Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Screening & Selection
EU #773701

9. Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Screening & Selection
EU #773701
500+

10. Objective: What are potential risk factors?
EU #773701
Population Pathogen
Vector
Environment

11. Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Identified risk factors - Categories
EU #773701

12. Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Identified risk factors
EU #773701

13. EU #773701
Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Risk factors considered over time

14. Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Risk factors: Which ones matter?
EU #773701
Population Pathogen
Vector
Environment

15. Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Risk factors: Which ones matter?
EU #773701
Population Pathogen
Vector
Environment
Environment
Vector
Population
Pathogen
+++
+
?

16. Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Risk factors: Which ones matter? – Expert Ranking
EU #773701
Risk factor categories
Biosecurity
Cattle
properties
Disease
control
Environmental
factors
Husbandry
system
Movement/
Transport
Networks
Socioeconomic
factors
Surveillance Immune status
Vector
properties
Virus
properties
(LSDV)
bi ca di en hu mo ne so su im ve vi
Biosecurity bi
Cattle properties ca bi do not fill in the grey cells
Disease control di bi use two-letter abbreviations to mark your choices
Environmental factors en en
Husbandry system hu hu
Movement/ Transport mo bi
Networks ne bi
Socioeconomic factors so bi
Surveillance su
Immune status im
Vector properties ve
Virus properties (LSDV) vi
Which risk category do you
consider to be most
important for assessing the
likelihood of Lumpy Skin
Disease occurrence in
cattle?

17. Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Expert ranking: Recruitment
EU #773701
n = 17

18. Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Expert ranking: Recruitment
EU #773701
n = 17

19. Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Ranking of risk categories
EU #773701

20. Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Ranking weighted by experiences
EU #773701
unweighted (median)
rank category score
1 Immune status 10
2 Environmental factors 8,5
3 Disease control 8
4 Surveillance 7,5
5 Movement 6
6 Vector properties 5
7 Biosecurity 4,5
7 Virus properties 4,5
9 Husbandry system 3
9 Networks 3
11 Socioeconomic factors 2,5
12 Cattle properties 2

21. Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Ranking weighted by experiences
EU #773701
Experience-weighted
(average score per „experience-year“)
unweighted (median)
rank category score
1 Immune status 9,33333333
2 Surveillance 8,27586207
3 Environmental factors 7,66666667
4 Cattle properties 7,16129032
5 Disease control 6,84782609
6 Movement 5,91666667
7 Biosecurity 5,675
8 Socioeconomic factors 5,23529412
9 Vector properties 5
10 Networks 4,5
11 Virus properties 4,25
12 Husbandry system 3,6875
rank category score
1 Immune status 10
2 Environmental factors 8,5
3 Disease control 8
4 Surveillance 7,5
5 Movement 6
6 Vector properties 5
7 Biosecurity 4,5
7 Virus properties 4,5
9 Husbandry system 3
9 Networks 3
11 Socioeconomic factors 2,5
12 Cattle properties 2

22. Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
Ranking weighted by experiences
EU #773701
Experience-weighted
(average score per „experience-year“)
unweighted (median)
rank category score
1 Immune status 9,33333333
2 Surveillance 8,27586207
3 Environmental factors 7,66666667
4 Cattle properties 7,16129032
5 Disease control 6,84782609
6 Movement 5,91666667
7 Biosecurity 5,675
8 Socioeconomic factors 5,23529412
9 Vector properties 5
10 Networks 4,5
11 Virus properties 4,25
12 Husbandry system 3,6875
rank category score
1 Immune status 10
2 Environmental factors 8,5
3 Disease control 8
4 Surveillance 7,5
5 Movement 6
6 Vector properties 5
7 Biosecurity 4,5
7 Virus properties 4,5
9 Husbandry system 3
9 Networks 3
11 Socioeconomic factors 2,5
12 Cattle properties 2

23. Lumpy Skin Disease Symposium, 2023, Rome
SUMMARY
EU #773701
•Identified and categorised exhaustive range of potential risk factors
for Lumpy Skin Disease – “What is there to keep in mind!”.
•Tool to collect measures of disease risk importance from persons
with defined knowledge backgrounds
•Basis to complement risk models in support of decision making for
disease surveillance, prevention and control efforts

24. Protecting people, animals, and the environment every day
Drawings: FAO/Chiara Caproni
Thank you for listening!
This work is part of the DEFEND project (www.defend2020.eu), funded by the European
Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 773701
.. and thank you to:
The FLI Team
Participants of the risk ranking study
DEFEND EU Partners
EU #773701
Email: Hannes.Bergmann@fli.de