LSD symposium - R. Ainsworth - Lumpy skin disease (LSD) in Southeast Asia March 2023

1. Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD)
in Southeast Asia MARCH 2023
A discussion of the risks of spreading Lumpy Skin Disease
(LSD) through cattle movements in S.E. Asia
Dr Ross Ainsworth BVSc. Based in Bali, Indonesia.
Australasian Livestock Services Pty Ltd, & S.E. Asian Beef Report.

2. SCHEMATIC ILLUSTRATION OF THE MANY WAYS TO SPREAD LSDV by FAO
Lumpy Skin Disease symposium, Rome, March 2023

3. To help understand the links between the mass movement of cattle across the region and
the transmission of LSD I began by considering:
• The live cattle trade and markets including transportation with vehicles and boats,
• The role of smuggling,
• The impact of government policies including quarantine, emergency slaughter,
compensation and corruption
I have actively studied the movements of live cattle across Asia for
more than 30 years. I have used this experience to try to identify the
most important causes of the recent spread of LSD across S.E. Asia.
Lumpy Skin Disease transmission in Southeast Asia
Lumpy Skin Disease symposium, Rome, March 2023

4. Usual direction of the Live cattle trade for at
least a decade before the beginning of the
Pandemic in March 2020
The direction of trade was generally west to
east and south to north
Lumpy Skin Disease symposium, Rome, March 2023

5. NO CORRELATION
Lumpy Skin Disease symposium, Rome, March 2023

6. • Some government policies can in fact accelerate the spread of the virus
• For example, Indonesia provided compensation for their FMD outbreak but not LSD
• The village cow represents a very large proportion of the farmer’s personal wealth
• Any expectation by the farmer that the government might place their animal under
quarantine or potentially enforce emergency slaughter without compensation may
encourage the farmer to move his animal away from potential government action
• These illicit movements may well result in unintentional spread of the disease
GOVERNMENT POLICIES ARE ONE OF THE MAIN CAUSES OF LOCAL LSD SPREAD
Lumpy Skin Disease symposium, Rome, March 2023

7. • Up until the beginning of 2020 ”smuggling” was just a normal part of the live cattle
trade across S.E. Asia and into China
• The only thing that can stop smuggling is genuine and extremely strict government
intervention and enforcement
• This actually occurred across S.E. Asia possibly for the first time ever during the peak of
the Covid 19 pandemic from early 2020 to mid 2022 and is only now starting to be fully
relaxed.
IN SE ASIA “SMUGGLING” is usually a STATE SANCTIONED GREY CHANNEL TRADE
Lumpy Skin Disease symposium, Rome, March 2023

8. Lumpy Skin Disease symposium, Rome, March 2023

9. CATTLE & BUFFALO CROSSING FROM NYANMAR TO THAILAND AT MAE SOT FEB 2015
Lumpy Skin Disease symposium, Rome, March 2023

10. Almost all these traditional smuggling routes operate in the opposite direction to
the known direction of transmission of LSD
MYANMAR CATTLE TRUCKED INTO CHINA AT MUSE JAN 202 (COUP FEB 21)
Lumpy Skin Disease symposium, Rome, March 2023

11. 2013 - infects M. East, Turkey, Iran
2015 - SW Russia, Bulgaria
2016 - Kazakhstan
2019 – India, Bangladesh, China
2020 – 2022 – Southeast Asia
Viral Evolution/mutation?
1929 + 80 years to leave Africa
To better understand LSD transmission risks in S.E.Asia, examine history of transmission
Lumpy Skin Disease symposium, Rome, March 2023

12. First official report in China was in
Xinjiang province in August 2019
By June 2020 LSD was confirmed in most
states of eastern and southern China
and Taiwan.
LSD ENTRY INTO CHINA
Lumpy Skin Disease symposium, Rome, March 2023

13. ▪Vietnam October 2020 - from China
▪Myanmar November 2020 - from India
▪Thailand March 2021 - from the East
▪Laos May 2021
▪Cambodia May 2021
▪Malaysia May 2021
▪Indonesia February 2022
▪Singapore March 2022
All during the peak of the
Pandemic lockdowns
DATES OF FIRST CONFIRMATIONS OF LSD IN SOUTHEAST ASIAN COUNTRIES
Map from WOAH
Lumpy Skin Disease symposium, Rome, March 2023

14. • Beginning mid 2020 all borders began to close and soon after every border in
Southeast Asia was legally and actually closed.
• Smuggling of cattle/buffalo and other items carried by trucks and boats largely ceased
during the pandemic until reopening began around the middle to late of 2022.
• The most dramatic period of LSD spread in S.E. Asia took place during the peak of the
pandemic and border lockdowns.
PANDEMIC MOVEMENT RESTRICTIONS
Lumpy Skin Disease symposium, Rome, March 2023

15. Iran to Kolkata
3,800 km in 6 years
Iran to Xinjiang China
3,000km in 6 years
Xinjiang to Hanoi
3,000km in 1 year
Hanoi to Sumatra
2.400 km 18 months COVID
80+ Years to escape Africa
9 years to infect half the world
BIG PICTURE SUMMARY: AN INCREDIBLE JOURNEY
Lumpy Skin Disease symposium, Rome, March 2023

16. Northeast monsoon wind direction
In SE Asia the general
direction of
LSD spread has been
north to south
Northeast
Monsoon season is from
October to December
Wind direction in red
Lumpy Skin Disease symposium, Rome, March 2023

17. • The spread of LSD was against the direction of the normal live cattle trade and most
traditional smuggling routes throughout Southeast Asia
• The rapid spread of the virus through Southeast Asia took place during the peak of the
Covid 19 pandemic lockdowns & strict border closures
• The direction of spread of LSD over long distances and across borders in SE Asia was
consistent with the prevailing winds of the Northeast Monsoon and appears to be
largely unconnected with long distance transport of cattle.
CONCLUSION
Lumpy Skin Disease symposium, Rome, March 2023

18. Protecting people, animals, and the environment every day
Drawings: FAO/Chiara Caproni
Thank You