Vaccine Delivery and Demand Workshop. Online, 26-27 June 2023

1. VADEMOS:
Vaccine Demand Estimation Model
for foot-and-mouth disease
Vaccine Delivery and Demand Workshop. Online, 26-27 June 2023
European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth Disease

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● Vaccination is an essential component of
any foot-and-mouth disease control
programme in endemic contexts.
● A gap exists between the amount of
vaccine required for these control
programmes and the amount
manufactured.
● Organizations that produce vaccine need
to understand the size of this gap at
national and regional levels to be able to
justify manufacture of increased doses.
Presentation title
Meeting name
Background

3. Aims
● To bridge the gap between
FMD vaccine demand and
vaccine production/supply
in endemic countries.
● To assess the vaccine
requirements for different
strategies.
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Image by <a href="https://www.freepik.com/free-photo/long-shot-cows-walking-old-
metal-bridge_5078697.htm">Freepik</a>

4. VADEMOS
Vaccine Demand Estimation Model for FMD
VADEMOS is a decision-support tool intended to be used to estimate current and future vaccine dose demand for
Foot-and-Mouth disease (FMD) at a national and regional level. It is a stochastic quantitative model which uses
predictors of vaccine dose demand such as livestock population forecast, disease control policy related to
projected FMD Progressive Control Pathway (PCP) stage, vaccination schedule and outbreak forecasting. The WOAH
WAHIS and FAOSTAT databases, as well as country-specific data on current FMD outbreaks, livestock population and
density were used along with experts’ opinion sought to determine the extent of vaccine coverage, as well as the
reduction in number of outbreaks for each PCP stage.
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A web-based format with
an interactive interface allows
the user to modify parameters
and therefore run simulations
for “ad-hoc” scenarios.

7. Results
What outputs does VADEMOS provide?
Expected number of doses for FMD by:
•Geographic area: Country, Subregion and Continent level
•Type of vaccination: prophilactic, emergency, total vaccination
•Species: Large Ruminants, Small Ruminants, Pigs
•Year: 10-year period predictions
•-Sector: dairy/beef/smallholders
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8. Reality vs Prediction
What the accuracy of present version of VADEMOS?
A comparison is currently difficult due to data quality
regarding the real use of vaccines in the countries
• Scarce availability of official data
• Missing or inaccurate data from Authorities
• Vaccination scheme/strategy not clear
Some VADEMOS parameters are responsible of relevant uncertainty:
• Animal population prediction and density has to be improved
• %coverage of animal populations by year
• Outbreaks data are scarce
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- Most Probable (MP) predictions are
often overestimated and Credible
Intervals are still large
+ Good prediction for some some
countries and numbers are always within
the calculated credible intervals

9. Future developments
What are the next steps?
• Validation & Reduction of Uncertainty
• Addition of a further geographical level (i.e. provinces)
• Improvement of accuracy of livestock population density and
vaccination coverage
• Extension of the model to other FAST diseases (i.e. PPR,LSD)
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10. Conclusion
Presentation title
Meeting name

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