Some thoughts on the recovery process after the Covid-19 pandemic and the problems the world will face in the future.

1. HOW CAN WE GET READY FOR THE
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
OF THE POST-COVID-19 WORLD?
Prof. David Alexander
Learning from Covid-19: Old Lessons,
New Lessons - The Future Starts Now

2. Covid-19
is a ‘wave
disaster’:
it ebbs and
flows, it
spreads
and dilates

3. SARS 2002-2004 gave us
the scenario for Covid-19
It did not give us the recovery part.

4. Pandemics are recurrent events
• influenza pandemics occur at a roughly
30-40 year interval
• other sources of pandemic
include SARS, MERS,
HIV-AIDS and Ebola
• the term 'pandemic' has
no precise definition

5. Recovery from the 1918-1920
influenza pandemic took five years
• it had to include recovery from WWI
• similar gravity of economic effects,
less developed world economy
• recovery led into the
Great Crash of 1929
and the 1930s
Depression

6. What sort of society weathers a pandemic best?
• cohesive
• disciplined
• trusts its leaders - must be justified
• strong sense of personal responsibility
• individualism is not exalted
• strong social participation
• good public healthcare
and welfare

7. welfare mobility
sovereignty
identity
entitlementproxy
wars
?
democracy legality

8. What is welfare?
The provision of care to a
minimum acceptable
standard to people who are
unable adequately to look
after themselves.
But we also need to focus
on what welfare is NOT...

9. LOSS OF
HUMAN RIGHTS
PROXY WAR,
CONFLICT &
POLARISATION
POVERTY &
MARGINALISATION
'WRECKAGE ECONOMY' &
RISE OF THE PRECARIAT
LACK OF
DISASTER
GOVERNANCE
NIHILISM
CORRUPTION &
LOSS OF TRUSTANOMIE
constraints upon life and safety
Anomie (Durkheim, 1893) is a condition
of instability resulting from
a breakdown of standards
and values or from
a lack of purpose
or ideals.

10. Climate change Terrorism
Displacement
and migration
Pandemics
and epidemics
Population increase
Environmentalchange
Conflict
Technological
disasters and
major incidents
'Natural'
disasters
Wealth disparity

11. Two models for analysis of
the current and future
situation.

12. The "egg hypothesis" Disaster
• prima facie causes
• root causes
• vulnerabilities
• dynamic pressures
Context
• general
vulnerability
• poverty
• deprivation
• marginalisation

13. HAZARD or
THREAT
SPECIFIC
VULNERABILITY
HUMAN
CONSEQUENCES
The 'hazardscape' or
the 'risk landscape'
WEAKENING of the
SOCIAL FABRIC
GENERAL
VULNERABILITY
HUMAN
CONSEQUENCES
The 'wreckage
economy'
Health
Employment
Services
• reduced
• rationed
• overpriced
AUSTERITY and INEQUITYDISASTER CAPITALISM

14. THE PILLARS OF MODERN LIFE
idealism
principle
belief
faith
fanaticism
ultranationalism
authoritarianism
backlash
virtue
charity
service
defence of principles
unscrupulousness
corruption
opportunism
censure
capital availability
wealth diffusion
financial security
financial repression
debt burden
consumerism
ingegnuity
pragmatism
technological progress
crass materialism
galloping consumption
pollution and waste
technological hegemony
Ideocentrism
Morality
Luchrocentrism
Technocentrism
SPIRITFLESH
PHILOSOPHICALPRACTICAL
Positive Negative

15. Ideocentrism
+ ideal: effective disaster mitigation
- fanaticism: politicization of humanitarian relief
Morality
+ virtue: untiring application of mitigation measures
- corruption: failure to observe building codes
Luchrocentrism
+ financial security: monetary reserves vs. disaster
- financial repression: poverty vulnerability
Technocentrism
+ ingenuity: new hazard monitoring systems
- technological hegemony: unfair distribution of
mitigation benefits
...culturally conditioned

16. Some issues for disaster risk reduction:-
• widening wealth gap and polarisation
between rich and poor
• the wrong kind of globalisation;
tax havens, exploitation, black economy
• gender: plight of women and girls
• power structures: human rights, corruption
• military aid versus humanitarian aid
• disintegrating consensuses

17. 1859 - the "Carrington Event"
660 BC - a CME ten times larger...

18. ...merely rearranging the
deckchairs on the Titanic
We need a new approach to disaster risk reduction in order to avoid…

19. Thank you for listening!
david.alexander@ucl.ac.uk
emergency-planning.blogspot.com
slideshare.net/dealexander