Prof. David Alexander Discusses Systemic Risks, Emerging Challenges, and Building Disaster Resilience
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1) The document discusses systemic risks and emerging future challenges, including issues like complexity, cascading consequences, climate change, and digital insecurity. 2) It argues that participatory democracy and human rights are key to reducing disaster risks but that inequality can undermine efforts if human rights are not upheld. 3) Looking ahead, the document stresses that foresight, planning, and clear communication according to established quality standards will be crucial for success in addressing future disasters and challenges in a rapidly changing world.
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Prof. David Alexander Discusses Systemic Risks, Emerging Challenges, and Building Disaster Resilience
- 1. Prof. David Alexander SYSTEMIC RISKS AND EMERGING FUTURE CHALLENGES
- 2. Theory is our roadmap. It helps make complex situations clear. Towards a renewal of theory for the 21st century: we cannot afford to allow theory to lag behind events and developments.
- 3. Systematic risk refers to the possible breakdown of an entire system rather than merely the failure of some of its parts. Existential risk refers to the likelihood of a disaster that threatens the existence of all or a significant part of the human race.
- 4. The system is... Example of catalytic disaster Substituted Economic catastrophe after an enormous natural or anthropogenic event Threshold of economic sustainability Redirected Indian Ocean tsunami, 2004 (?) Threshold of political and public tolerance Static Earthquakes: Sichuan 2008, Nepal 2015 Threshold of sustained political and public attention In decline No significant major events The potential catalysts for change
- 5. COMPLEXITY
- 7. RISK Cascading risk tightly-coupled systems and critical infrastructure Compound risk multiple extreme events Interacting risk environmental drivers Interconnected risk interdependent natural, human and technological systems Composite risk any and all? COMPLEXITY
- 8. INTERSECTIONALITY SOVEREIGNTY DEMOCRACY MOBILITY IDENTITY HUMAN RIGHTS LEGALITY ENTITLEMENT ANTI- CORRUPTION WELFARE COMPLEX DISASTERS
- 9. Intersectionality - borrowed (with apologies) from studies of race and culture Intersection of: • forms of disaster causality • different kinds of disaster and crisis • disaster and its context • disaster and social circumstances
- 10. Where are our standards and moral principles? • human rights - in retreat • democracy - threatened by authoritarianism • identity - acquires new meaning • sovereignty - in a globalised world, needs to be redefined • mobility - no longer containable • welfare - undefined, undefinable? • hegemony (proxy wars) - destructive free-for-all • legality - under threat by anomie (nihilism)
- 12. Self-esteem Achievement, mastery, recognition Self-actualisation Talent, creativity, fulfilment Connection Physical participation, cyber-participation Belonging Identity, family, communities, workplace Threat and hazard abatement Safety, security, protection Welfare Reconsidering Abraham Maslow's pyramid of needs Food, water, sanitation, shelter, warmth, healthcare
- 13. Escalation Vulnerability scenarios Risk scenario Primary impact Secondary impacts Cascade path Cascade path Hazard event(s) After Nones & Pescaroli 2016, Pescaroli & Nones 2016 Interaction between vulnerabilities Legislation Management Time-space transitions
- 14. Secondary events Primary impact Hazard events Risk scenario Management Legislation Time and space transitions Vulnerability scenario Cascading path Cascading path After Nones & Pescaroli 2016, Pescaroli & Nones 2016
- 16. Cyber crime (illegal activity) deception theft Digital terrorism (sabotage) computer viruses ransomware Digital influence (subversion) spreading false information Digital extremism (on-line intervention) conspiracy theories character assassination incitement to violence MISUSE OF THE INTERNET AND SOCIAL MEDIA
- 17. Perceived reality Objective reality "Manufactured" reality* perceptions, leading to opinions and actions *the collective result of the public's choices
- 18. LOSS OF HUMAN RIGHTS PROXY WAR, CONFLICT & POLARISATION POVERTY & MARGINALISATION 'WRECKAGE ECONOMY' & RISE OF THE PRECARIAT LACK OF DISASTER GOVERNANCE CORRUPTION & LOSS OF TRUST ANOMIE NIHILISM constraints upon life and safety Anomie (Durkheim 1893) is a condition of instability resulting from a breakdown of standards and values or from a lack of purpose or ideals.
- 19. HAZARD/THREAT DISASTER VULNERABILITY WEAKENING OF SOCIAL FABRIC GENERAL VULNERABILITY HUMAN CONSEQUENCES The 'hazardscape' or 'risk landscape' The 'wreckage economy'
- 20. The "egg hypothesis" Disaster • vulnerabilities • prima facie causes • dynamic pressures • root causes Context • general vulnerability • poverty • deprivation • marginalisation • discrimination
- 21. HAZARD or THREAT SPECIFIC VULNERABILITY HUMAN CONSEQUENCES The 'hazardscape' or the 'risk landscape' WEAKENING of the SOCIAL FABRIC GENERAL VULNERABILITY HUMAN CONSEQUENCES The 'wreckage economy' Health Employment Services • reduced • rationed • overpriced
- 22. Herbert Simon's homo œconomicus Bounded rationality Satisficer Optimiser Ideologue racist suprematist oligarch kleptocrat Evolution Protest Revolution Internet and social media 1950s 2020s
- 23. Xenophobia: antagonism towards unfamiliary people Compassion: desire to help refugees Refusal: it is not our problem Distancing: not in my back yard The role of mass cognitive dissonance Charity: willingness to donate Humanity: living together in harmony
- 24. Politics in the service of economics DISASTER POLITICS ECONOMICS SOCIAL CONDITIONS PHYSICAL IMPACT VULNERABILITY Knowledge is ideology Underlying risk drivers Complexity Ideology • extremism • separatism • isolationism • exclusion Conflict Climate change Demographic change • human mobility Culture Technology
- 25. CONCLUSIONS
- 26. Conclusions:- • participatory democracy is the key to disaster risk reduction and it must be founded on human rights • inequality and inequity often result from poor human rights and may be diagnostic of inability to act • the foundation of rights is shifting as the world goes rapidly through momentous changes
- 27. Foresight, planning and communication are the keys to success in disaster reduction:- • foresight must examine future outcomes with creativity and intelligence • planning must follow quality standards (which have yet to be established) • communication must be clear, consistent and trustworthy
- 28. LIFE SAVING RESPONSE • search and rescue • crisis evacuation • medical surge capacity • intensive care capacity • epidemiology and disease prevention DAMAGE LIMITATION • infrastructure protection • impact reduction measures • bracing of damaged structures LAUNCHING RECOVERY • route clearance • infrastructure repair • debris management EMERGENCY RESPONSE CAPACITY AND CAPABILITY