Session 1.1 mediating factors of agroforestry changes vietnam


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Session 1.1 mediating factors of agroforestry changes vietnam

  1. 1. Mediating factors of agroforestry changes in Vietnam: implications for agroforestry development Nguyen Thi Hoa, Delia Catacutan, Nguyen Mai Phuong The 3rd World Agroforestry Congress New Delhi, India, 10-14 February 2014
  2. 2. Background • Agroforestry has been practiced in Viet Nam since early 1960s--- garden/fish pond/livestock and forest/garden/fish pond/livestock models in upland regions. • Other AF practices were then adopted at landscape, farm and field levels, including integrated AF systems. • The literature on transition of agroforestry and its drivers is very limited; main focus on perennial trees. Observations: • Apparent change in agroforestry over the past decades • Decreasing trend in AF since the government launched its national forest protection and development programmes • No information on how government reforestation and forest expansion programmes affected areas under AF
  3. 3. Objectives and study sites Through a mixed-method approach, the study examined: • The spatial and temporal changes of agroforestry in Vietnam • The drivers of these changes • Agroforestry’s contribution to people’s livelihoods Bac Kan Ha Tinh Dac Nong
  4. 4. Changes in agroforestry areas in 3 provinces (2000 to 2020) Area (ha) 250,000 210,675 200,000 218,197 Perennial tree based AF 150,000 Bac Kan 124,556 Ha Tinh 102,861 Dac Nong 100,000 72,912 Parkland AF 50,000 - 38,668 Parkland AF, perennial tree based AF, fruit tree based AF 23,265 2000 2010 9,951 2,026 2020
  5. 5. 2000 2010 2020 2% 5.6% 0.09% 6.4% Natural forest 0.14% 2% 5.9% Planted forest 0.42% Agroforestry 26% 15% 11 % 0.13% 0.05% 0.13 % Annual crops 1% 0.05% 1.6% 0.02% 1% 0.06% 0.44% 1.8% 5% 0.03% 0.6% Bare land 0% 0% 0.01% 0.04% Pathway analysis of AF land in Bac Kan province Water surface Conversion of AF to other land uses Changes in other land uses Settlement & Built up Conversion of other land uses to AF Increase in natural forest Peason’s correlations with decrease in agroforestry area (2000-2010) 0.094 Increase in planted forest 0.511** Increase in shifting cultivation area -0.007 Increase in paddy area 0.528** Increase in other land uses (bare land and settlement area) 0.0061 *p<0.05, ** p< 0.01 and ***p<0.001. Decrease in upland crop ~ Increase in AF: Peason’s R: 0.498, p<0.001
  6. 6. 2000 2010 1.24% 1.9% 3.3% 1.4 % 0.92% 3.9% 0.57 % Natural forest 0.87% 0.17% 0.05% 0.24% 6.54% 2020 Planted forest 1.66% Agroforestry Annual crops 0.29% 1.3% 0.03% 0.00% 0.03% 0.04% 0.00% 0.24%0.04% 0.06% Bare land 0% 0.06% Pathway analysis of AF land in Ha Tinh province 0.00% 0.01% Conversion of AF to other land uses Changes in other land uses Decrease in natural forest Increase in planted forest Increase in upland crop area Decrease in paddy area 0.07% 0.35% Water surface Conversion of other land uses to AF Peason’s correlations with increase in parkland AF area 0.721** 0.711*** (spurious as correlating with decrease in natural forest) 0.462** 0.023 Decrease in other land uses (bare land and settlement area) -0.083 *p<0.05, ** p< 0.01 and ***p<0.001. Settlement & Built up
  7. 7. 2000 2010 8.75% 1% 10.3 % 2.4% 1% 0.57% 15.8% 2020 1.95% 32.3% 1.8% Natural forest 0.8% 22.3 % Planted forest 33.5% Agroforestry 3.5% Annual crops 3% Settlement & Built up 1.2% 2.2% 8.74% 0.8% 0.8% 2.47% 0.28% 0.7% 0.42% Bare land 0.28% 0.18% 0.08% 0.46% Water surface 5.1% Conversion of AF to other land uses Pathway analysis of agroforestry land in Dac Nong province Conversion of other land uses to AF
  8. 8. Drivers of agroforestry transition (2000-2010)  Forest regeneration policies facilitated conversion of parkland agroforestry to natural forest ---Allocated forest land for households and communities for forest regeneration ---Provided financial support for forest regeneration and protection ---Prohibited slash-and-burn on hillsides Parkland agroforestry conversion to natural forest took place mainly on community natural forests. But, not in Ha Tinh and Dac Nong • Government incentives is insufficiently attractive to farmers • Other economically lucrative land uses are preferred (e.g., timber, perennial tree plantations)
  9. 9.  Government reforestation: conversion of parkland agroforestry to plantation forest ---Reforestation programmes (327, 661 and 147) provided technical and material support Rapid and expansive conversion in Ha Tinh province: • Initial technical and financial supports before 2000 for forest plantation • Favorable market conditions for timber tree plantation Less popular in Bac Kan province: Ha Tinh province Peason’s R with decrease in • Limited market for parkland AF Number of seedlings supported for timber 0.012 reforestation Financial support required Amount of money provided for reforestation -0.087 Bac Kan province Number of seedlings supported for reforestation Amount of money provided for reforestation *p<0.05, ** p< 0.01 and ***p<0.001. Small conversion in Dac Nong: • High competition with perennial trees 0.040 0.193*
  10. 10.  National poverty alleviation programmes’ support for fruit and perennial tree plantation High expansion of fruit tree-based agroforestry within settlement areas in Ha Tinh • Poverty reduction programmes (134, 135) • Free fruit tree seedlings and trainings on fruit tree plantation In Dac Nong • Home lots distributed • Technical and financial supports provided for the establishment of perennial tree farms.
  11. 11.  Government policies and local programmes on the development of perennial tree plantations National strategy on expansion of perennial tree plantations (ex. rubber) Support and programs localized, some cases with mis-implementation of the government’s policy Ha Tinh: rubber expansion on both Dac Nong: develop market access for community/allocated natural forest perennial trees (coffee, cacao) in the area; land, plantation forest technical training on perennial trees • Rubber allowed (regardless of type of land • Mostly occurred on community-managed use) in areas between 15 and 25 degree natural forest lands, since these have not slopes. + financial support been allocated to households • Linkage between farmers, local government • Home gardens and rubber companies facilitated • Increase farmers’ knowledge on rubber and emerging market =com_content&view=article&id=386%3Aklk-ci-to-li-cac-vn-ca-phe-bng-cac-ging-chnlc-cht-lng-cao&catid=90%3Atin-hoat-dongnganh&Itemid=199&lang=en
  12. 12.  Proximity to tree nurseries facilitated conversion of upland crop cultivation areas to park land AF In Bac Kan, but not in Ha Tinh and Dac Nong province • • • Timber tree seedlings mainly bought from nurseries in Bac Kan Seeds or seedlings directly from local traders at a reasonable price than from nurseries in other areas Rubber seedlings may be freely supplied or delivered by rubber companies in Ha Tinh Peason’s correlations Proximity to tree nurseries ~ increase in parkland AF Proximity to markets for cash crop (tobacco) ~ decrease in parkland AF Proximity to cassava market ~decrease in parkland AF *p<0.05, ** p< 0.01 and ***p<0.001. -0.244* (Bac Kan) -0.199* (Bac Kan) -0.032 (Ha Tinh) Availability of markets for cash crops • Improved markets for cash crops • Shorter proximity to market for cash crop facilitated conversion of parkland AF to cash crop production (farmers have to transfer products to collection points in Bac Kan) • In Ha Tinh, farmers are able to sell cassava directly to local traders
  13. 13.  Market availability for timber and price increase: conversion of parkland AF to plantation forest in Bac Kan and Ha Tinh provinces Bac Kan: • Increase in Melia timber price strongly correlates with the decrease in agroforestry area during 2000-2010 (Peason’s R: 0.094, p<0.001). • • Ha Tinh: Emerging market for Acacia timber pushed expansion of Acacia plantations into parkland areas Farmers are able to sell Melia timber (main species on parkland AF; not a regulated species). Price boom for Melia timber  farmers converted their agroforestry areas into Melia plantation forest. Distance to timber market Peason’s correlation with decrease of parkland AF Bac Kan 0.257 (p: 0.225) Ha Tinh -0.06 (p: 0.826) Farmers are able to directly sell their timber to local traders
  14. 14.  Infrastructure development and market for perennial tree products Expansion of perennial treebased AF in natural forests and settlement areas in Dac Nong Increasing markets for cashew and coffee • Local traders collect products • Products to collection points by farmers • Inputs easily accessible Improved proximity to markets for perennial tree products and urban centres Peason’s R with increase in perennial tree AF -0.154; p: 0.032 Proximity to urban area Proximity to the market for perennial tree products -0.157; p: 0.029 clip/366-ngan-ngo-voi-nui-doi-dak-
  15. 15.  Fruit market availability and proximity • • Proximity to market--- not significantly correlated with the increase in fruit tree-based agroforestry area in Ha Tinh province (Peason’s R: 0.191; p: 0.355) Good access and increasing market demand, farmers able to sell fruit to local traders  Population increase: expansion of AF area (where AF can be an economically viable option) Natural population growth In-migration Greater demand for land for agricultural production Encroach natural forest land or buy land to convert to perennial tree based AF in Dac Nong Peason’s R with increase in perennial tree AF The area of lands bought by migrant families 0.916 (p<0.001) Household size 0.401 (p< 0.001)
  16. 16.  Household economy: increase income from paddy fields In Bac Kan province Peason’s R with increase in the share of income from paddy fields per total household income in 2000-2010 Decrease in parkland agroforestry area 0.155*, increase in paddy area 0.468* (*) p<0.05 Increase in the share of income from paddy fields, in total HH income Increase in paddy area in 2000-2010 • • More resources to invest in converting parkland AF to plantation forest Household economy more focus on paddy fields Decrease of parkland AF in Bac Kan province
  17. 17. Linking household economic factors with the area under agroforestry Peason’s correlation with total area under AF Bac Kan Ha Tinh 0.161* (spurious, with the area of Income from upland crops 0.201* planted forest) Income from paddy field 0.064 0.106 Income from livestock raising 0.525*** 0.047 Off-farm income -0.123 0.301 Total household income 0.195* 0.111 Total number of cattles (buffalo, cow 0.404*** (spurious, with income 0.189* and goat) by 2012 from livestock) Number of deer NA 0.416*** *p<0.05, ** p< 0.01 and ***p<0.001. • • • AF significantly contributes to the household’s economy Richer households are more incline to adopt AF More resources from upland crops or livestocks AF adoption • Households who owned a number of animals are better off, and invest more on AF. Dac Nong Area of perennial tree-based AF ~ household income: significantly correlated (Peason’s R: 0.562***), but not with any other income sources.
  18. 18. Conclusions and implications AF development in Vietnam is largely based on reinforcing factors such as government support, market creation for agroforestry products, local capacity development, and availability of, or access to financial capital. • Parkland AF areas were mainly converted to natural forest in Bac Kan province and to planted forest in Ha Tinh province. Conversely, in Dak Nong province, natural forest and settlement areas were converted to agroforestry. • Agroforestry change in Bac kan province was largely driven by government forest regeneration and reforestation programmes and creation of markets for cash crops; whereas, improved physical and market infrastructure, as well as steady increases in timber prices and perennial tree crops were key drivers in Ha Tinh and Dak Nong provinces. • Richer households tend to increase their agroforestry areas from surplus incomes than accept minimal government incentives for reforestation or forest regeneration. Therefore, • The development of agroforestry in Vietnam will likely take place in areas where no land use option is economically superior to it. • The decision to adopt agroforestry is largely attributed to the economic value of AF products. • The economic value of environmental services derived must be accounted to increase the profitability of agroforestry.
  19. 19. Thank you for your attention The authors would like to thank Vietnam Forest Inventory and Planning Institute (FIPI) for providing spatial data, the District People Committees and local authorities in the six study districts, and the 900 farmer-respondents who willingly collaborated us in this study, and to Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Thuy from Ho Chi Minh Nong Lam University for his supervision of the survey in Dac Nong province. The authors also acknowledged the assistance from Ms. Doan Thi Luyen, Ms. Dang Thi Thu Thuy, Ms. Nguyen Thi Toan, Ms. Pham Thanh Loan, Ms. Le Thi Tam and Ms. Tran Thi Sang. For more information, please contact: