2017 February GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Higher Education Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through February 2017

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
GRAY
For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: Sales@GrayAssociates.com
Who Is Gray?
Program and Market
Evaluation Data
Employment
Placement RatesStudent Inquiries
Demographics
Job Postings
Programs Price ProjectsPlace
§  Program Evaluation
System
§  Program profiles
§  Program development
§  City targeting
§  Location selection
§  Campus consolidation
§  Price elasticity
§  Price positioning
§  Price optimization
§  Business strategy
§  Strategy implementation
§  Acquisition analysis
§  Complex analytics
Advanced Analytics
Predictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition
Enhanced Crosswalks

GRAY
Agenda
1.  Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Google Searches
1.  National
2.  Online and On-Campus
3.  Degree and Channel
4.  City and Program
2.  Job Postings
3.  NHE: Benchmarking Institute
4.  Summary

GRAY
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
We will share data from 2015, 2016 and 2017.
§  GrayReports covers January 2012 through the present.
§  We add between 600,000 and one million qualified inquiries to the dataset each month.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels
2015 2016 2017

GRAY
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
National Inquiries
2015 2016 2017
In 2017, inquiries have fallen by an average of 12% year-over-year.
-12%

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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
National Inquiries
2015 2016 2017
In February, inquiry volumes dropped another 12%.
-12%
YoY

GRAY
External Inquiries: Definition
Third party web sites attract students, who fill out inquiry forms. This inquiry data is sold to colleges.

GRAY
External Inquiries: Overall Results
External (or PPL) inquiries for higher education dropped an average of 15% in 2016.
§  February inquiries fell 16% year-over-year.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
National External Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017
-16%
YoY

GRAY
Branded Inquiry: Definition
Branded Inquiry: When potential students search for a school by name.

GRAY
Branded Inquiries
For the third consecutive month, Branded inquiries fell.
§  In 2016, the average monthly growth rate for Branded inquiries was 6%.
§  But, Branded inquiries shrank 1% in December, 2% in January, and 5% in February.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
National Branded Inquiries
-5%
YoY

GRAY
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends
(Indexed to Q1 2014)
Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2016, conversion rates seemed to be stabilizing above our 2014 baseline.
§  Q3 2016 was 12% above the baseline last month and improved to 14% as more Q3 inquiries converted.
§  Q4 2016 is already beating the baseline by 6% and will continue to improve as it matures.
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry).
Typically, the application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2.  Total includes unknown source type.
+6%

GRAY
Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For November 2016 inquiries, total conversions fell 8% year-over-year.
§  It now takes six months for conversions to fully mature.
§  November’s 8% decline is a considerable improvement on the 16% drop in October 2016.
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry).
Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Total Inquiry Conversions
2015 2016 2017
-8% YoY
Immature Months1

GRAY
2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75
2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.55
2017 $45.41 $45.42 $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
Since December, the average price of an External inquiry has been over $45.
§  For the first time in four months, the average price is down year-over-year;
§  But, February 2016 was the highest average price in four years.
Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
-1%

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
2.  Job Postings
4.  Summary

GRAY
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeYear-over-year, inquiries for online programs were flat in 2016.
+0.5%

GRAY
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Inquiries
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs grew 13% in February.
§  Online inquiries have now increased in seven of the last eight months.
+13%
YoY

GRAY
Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
Conversions for online higher education programs increased 36% in November.
§  This is the fourth consecutive increase in conversions.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
2015 2016 2017
1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a
January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
+36% YoY
Immature Months1

GRAY
Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
Conversions for online higher education programs increased 36% in November.
§  December and January have already passed last year’s levels and February should also.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
2015 2016 2017
Immature Months1

GRAY
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
Inquiries for on-campus academic programs are in free-fall.
§  2016 fell short of year-ago levels by an average of 15%.
§  January inquiries for on-campus higher education programs dropped 14%.
§  In February, inquiries for on-campus programs plunged 19% year-over-year.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
2015 2016 2017
-19% YoY

GRAY
Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
Conversions for on-campus programs fell 13% year-over-year in November.
§  October conversions improved 2% this month, but still fell short year-over-year.
§  The three immature months have a lot of ground to make up.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
2015 2016 2017
-13% YOY
Immature Months1

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
2.  Job Postings
4.  Summary

GRAY
Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Trailing Three Months
Post-Master’s certificate continued to be the fastest-growing award.
§  Associate’s degrees also increased over the past quarter (3%).
§  Lower-level degrees are now outperforming more advanced degrees.
-22%
-16%
-10%
-8%
3%
151%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180%
Master's degree
Bachelor's degree
Doctor's degree
Undergraduate certificate
Associate's degree
Post-master's certificate
Quarterly Change in Inquiries
December through February YoY

GRAY
Inquiry Volumes by Channel – Trailing Three Months
Once again, Affiliate – PPC was the fastest-growing channel for student inquiries.
§  Five different Branded inquiry channels grew in the most recent quarter.
-72%
-41%
-40%
-37%
-18%
-17%
-9%
-7%
-5%
-5%
2%
27%
27%
41%
82%
432%
-100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500%
PPC - Inbound Call: Branded
Display: Branded
Interactive: Branded
PPL: External
Social Media: Branded
Referral: Branded
Website: Branded
Email: Branded
All Other Internal: Branded
Affiliate: External
PPC: Branded
Inbound Phone: Branded
Organic: Branded
Event: Branded
Offline Media: Branded
Affiliate - PPC: External
Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel
(December through February YoY)
Branded
External

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
2.  Job Postings
4.  Summary

GRAY
The Big 5 Programs: December Growth
Inquiries for the Big Five shrank again.
§  Medical Assisting performed the best, but dropped 17%.
§  Registered Nursing, last month’s best performer at -9%, decreased 21%.
§  Criminal Justice/Police Science was down 30%.
§  The two business programs continued to drop the most, both down more than 35%.
-17%
-21%
-30%
-36%
-38%
-45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Medical Assistant Registered Nursing Criminal Justice Business Admin:
Associate's -
Business Admin:
Bachelor's +
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in February Inquiries
2017 YoY % Change

GRAY
280%
129% 119% 114%
91%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Human Services Accounting and
Business
Counseling Psychology Medical Insurance
Coding
Electrical and
Electronics Engineering
The Fast 5 Programs
2017 YoY % Change
The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew more than 90%.
§  At 280%, Human Services grew the fastest for the fifth consecutive month.
§  Second on the list, Accounting and Business grew nearly 130%.
1.  Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.

GRAY
-88%
-70% -70% -68%
-60%
-100%
-50%
0%
Electrical, Electronic
and Comm. Eng. Tech.
Radiologic Technology Accounting and
Finance
Computer and
Information Sciences,
General.
Criminal Justice/Safety
Studies.
The Slow 5 Programs
2017 YoY % Change
The Slow 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Slowest Inquiry Growth
All five of the slowest-growing big programs1 shrank more than 60%.
§  Electronics Engineering was a fast-growing program, but the the Technician program is shrinking.
§  Criminal Justice/Safety Studies is the only new program in the “Slow 5” this month.
1.  Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.

GRAY
Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
All of The Big 5 fell more than 10% year-over-year.
§  Atlanta, the worst performer last month, performed the best this month.
-22%
-3%
-15%
-30%
-28%
-14% -15%
-16%
-18%
-22%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Atlanta, GA Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Chicago, IL
Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in December Inquiries
2016 YoY % Change 2017 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
2.  Job Postings
4.  Summary

GRAY
Job Postings: Demand Map
Where are the top locations for jobs? Example: Human Services
MSAs (Top 5 MSA) Count % of Total Location Quotient Demand Level Index
New York-Newark-Jersey City 3,217 7.2% 0.9 Average
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim 1,677 3.8% 0.9 Low
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington 1,638 3.7% 1.1 Very High
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin 1,534 3.5% 1.7 Average
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria 1,427 3.2% 1.4 High
Total (specified) 44,517
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017.
SOCs used: 21-1093 Social and Human Service Assistants and 11-9151 Social and Community Service Managers (Data for 3/1/2016 to 2/28/2017)

GRAY
MSAs (Top 5 MSA) Count % of Total Location Quotient Demand Level Index
New York-Newark-Jersey City 3,217 7.2% 0.9 Average
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim 1,677 3.8% 0.9 Low
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington 1,638 3.7% 1.1 Very High
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin 1,534 3.5% 1.7 Average
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria 1,427 3.2% 1.4 High
Total (specified) 44,517
Job Postings: Demand Map
Where are the top locations for jobs? Example: Human Services

GRAY
Job Postings: Job Titles
There is strong demand for Director-level specialists in Human Services.
Job Titles (Top 10) Count % to Total
Director
of
Rehabilita/on
2,677
5.2%

Execu/ve
Director
2,193
4.2%

Director
of
Social
Services
1,949
3.8%

Case
Manager
1,098
2.1%

Social
Services
Assistant
709
1.4%

Care
Coordinator
687
1.3%

Social
Services
Coordinator
567
1.1%

Social
Worker
516
1.0%

Social
Work
Assistant
485
0.9%

Nursing
Home
Administrator
421
0.8%

Total 31,030

GRAY
Job Postings: Human Services Skill Clusters
The Human Services skill clusters most commonly cited are related to health care.
§  37% of the job postings mentioned people management.
14%
15%
16%
23%
23%
25%
25%
28%
30%
37%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Health Care: General Medicine
Industry Knowledge: Social Services Industry Knowledge
Customer and Client Support: Basic Customer Service
Information Technology: Microsoft Office and Productivity Tools
Health Care: Medical Support
Health Care: Mental and Behavioral Health Specialties
Finance: Budget Management
Health Care: Social Work
Health Care: Advanced Patient Care
Business: People Management
Human Services Job Postings:
Most-Frequently-Cited Skill Clusters
Health Care
Business
Finance
Other

GRAY
Job Postings: Human Services Education (Minimum Advertised)
Human Services job postings most frequently request Bachelor’s degrees.
§  12% of the specified job postings advertised higher degrees.
17%
8%
63%
11%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
High school or vocational training
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Doctoral degree
Human Services Job Postings
Most Frequently-Cited Skill Clusters

GRAY
Human Services Job Postings: Employers
During the past 12 months, The Mentor Network had over 1,000 job postings.
1,116
873
468
369
345
337
310
296
280
278
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
The Mentor Network
Employer 2
Employer 3
Brookdale Senior Living
Employer 5
Golden Living Centers
Employer 7
Consulate Health Care
HCR ManorCare
Employer 10
Employers by Volume in Job Postings

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
2.  Job Postings
4.  Summary

Case Studies
Lou Guthrie
National Benchmarking Institute

PHYSICAL THERAPY ASSISTANT PROGRAM
Full-time
Faculty SCH/Fall
SCH/
Spring
Total
SCH Salary Benefits
Individual
ROI
Faculty Smith 107 85 192 110,418.95$ 44,830.10$ 18.2%
Faculty Jones 119 310 429 92,979.22$ 37,749.56$ 48.2%
Faculty Doe 110 94 204 44,560.12$ 18,091.41$ 47.9%
Part-time Faculty
None
Totals 336 489 825 247,958.29$ 100,671.07$

SCH/Fall
SCH/
Spring Total SCH Salary Benefits
Salary +
Benefits
Totals 336 489 825 247,958.29$ 100,671.07$ $348,629.36
Tuition SCH $147
Tuition
Revenue 121,275.00$
348,629.36$
-$
-$
-$
5,580.00$
354,209.36$
429.34$
(232,934.36)$
34.24%
Margin (Revenue - Costs) =
ROI/% Efficiency (Revenue/Costs)=
Faculty Costs
Total Costs
FT Overloads + Benefitcs
Clinicals
Adjunct +benefits
Supplies
Production Cost per SCH =

Criminal
Justice
F-‐T
Faculty SCH/FallSCH/Spring Total
SCH Salary Benefits Individual
ROI
Faculty 434 492 926 59,576.00$

24,187.86$

162.5%
Faculty 312 384 696 36,210.00$

14,701.26$

201.0%

P-‐T
Faculty

Adjunct 57
57 1,650.00$

142.23$

467.5%
Adjunct 201 216 417 7,425.00$

640.04$

760.1%
Adjunct 84 90 174 6,600.00$

568.92$

356.8%
Totals 1088 1182 2270 111,461.00$
40,240.30$

SCC
Summary
Data NCCBP
Mean

Tuition
Revenue
=
SCH
x
$147.00 333,690.00$

Faculty
Costs
(Salary
+
Benefits) 151,701.30$

FT
Overloads
+
benefits 7,008.91$

Other
than
Personnel
(Supplies) $8,277.00
69% 31%
36% 64%
373 253
342 382
24/1 23/1
73.56$

79.00$

166,702.79$

199.83%
Percentage
of
SCH
taught
by
FT
Percentage
of
SCH
taught
by
PT
SCH
taught
by
FT
faculty
SCH
taught
by
PT
faculty
Student
Faculty
Ratio
Instructional
cost/SCH
Margin
(Revenue-‐Costs)
=
ROI/%
Efficiency
(Revenue/Costs)
=

Cost & Productivity/Academic Divisions
Quadrants

Conclusions
§  Cost & Productivity measures are a key part of a program review
§  Cost per SCH and Student/Faculty Ratios are the measures used to
examine the efficiency of programs
§  Benchmarking enhances the analysis by adding context
§  Decisions should not be made based on cost alone
§  Use analysis to balance programs/divisions, adjust teaching loads
and class sizes, and make strategic decisions

Learn More about
Benchmarking and Best
Practices
BenchmarkingInstitute.org
Maria Harper-
Marinick
Michelle Asha
Cooper
Randy Swing

Keep up with the Benchmarking Institute and all of our projects
by joining us on LinkedIn and following us on Twitter
@EdBenchmark
Join the National Higher Education
Benchmarking Institute Group
louguthrie@jccc.edu

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National
2.  Job Postings
4.  Summary

GRAY
Key Demand Trends and Observations
§  Overall student inquiries are declining.
§  But, Online is continuing to grow.
─  Inquiries for online programs grew 13%
─  Conversions are growing at least 36% year-over-year
§  Rapid growth in Post-Master’s certificates continues.
§  Human services continues to be the fastest-growing program.
─  The job market for the profession is healthy.
─  63% of jobs specifying an education level request a Bachelor’s degree.
§  Gray has added new data to its services
─  Instructional Cost Index to help inform new program decisions
─  Brand Search to track the reach of your school’s brand

GRAY
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836

GRAY
Webcast 3 of 4: Thursday, March 30th at 2:00 PM EST. Register at GrayAssociates.com
Webcast Series: Best Practices in Program Portfolio Evaluation

GRAY
Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast
Please join us next month!
April Webcast
(March Results)
Thursday, April 20th at 2:00 PM EDT

2017 February GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

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2017 February GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education