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The Best Practices in Program Portfolio Evaluation - Employer Demand

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The Best Practices in Program Portfolio Evaluation - Employer Demand

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This presentation highlights all of the sources your institution can use to evaluate employer needs for your graduates. We will also share the limitations of each data source, so you can use them more safely.

For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is the best source for total employment in a given occupation. However, 85% of BLS growth projections are off by 50% or more. And 42% of BLS's growth projections are off by more than 100%. This presentation will help you understand the major employment datasets, so you can avoid their pitfalls and use them effectively to guide program decisions.

This presentation highlights all of the sources your institution can use to evaluate employer needs for your graduates. We will also share the limitations of each data source, so you can use them more safely.

For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is the best source for total employment in a given occupation. However, 85% of BLS growth projections are off by 50% or more. And 42% of BLS's growth projections are off by more than 100%. This presentation will help you understand the major employment datasets, so you can avoid their pitfalls and use them effectively to guide program decisions.

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The Best Practices in Program Portfolio Evaluation - Employer Demand

  1. 1. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 1Confidential Best Practices in Program Research: Employer Demand March 2, 2017
  2. 2. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 2 Evaluating Markets for Programs Best-practices: inclusive process with sound data on four topics. Student Demand February 2 Employment March 2 Degree Fit March 30 Competitive Intensity March 30 Decision-Making Process April 22
  3. 3. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 3 Evaluating Markets for Programs Best-practices: inclusive process with sound data on four topics. Student Demand February 2 Employment March 2 Degree Fit March 30 Competitive Intensity March 30 Decision-Making Process April 22
  4. 4. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 4 The Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS is a primary source and its employment data is easy to access.
  5. 5. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 5 Employment Opportunity Data: BLS BLS surveys employers to estimate employment by Standard Occupation Code (SOC). SOCs are assigned to all people who do similar work 49-9052.00 Telephone Line Installers and Repairers29-1065.00 Pediatrician
  6. 6. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 6 NCES crosswalks intentionally draw a tight link between programs and SOCs. NCES Crosswalks History, General CIP 54.0101 Managers, All Other SOC 11-9199 Historians SOC 19-3093 Source: National Center for Education Statistics: SOC 2010 mapped to CIP. History Teachers, Postsecondary SOC 25-1125 Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education SOC 25-2031
  7. 7. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 7 1 4 462 - 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 CIPs (Programs) NCES Matched SOCs Actual Employment: SOCs Count of Programs and Occupations CIP 54.0101 History, General Reality: Loose Alignment, especially for Liberal Arts NCES Crosswalks Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Gray analysis of over 2.0 million records.
  8. 8. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 8 Even for one program, occupations are very diverse—from CEO to salesperson. ACS Actual Fields of Employment 11% 7% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 5% 10% 15% Lawyers, Judges, other Judicial Teachers: Elem. & Mid. School Postsecondary Teachers Miscellaneous Managers Secondary School Teachers Education Administrators Chief Executives and Legislators Clergy Retail Salespersons First-line Supervisors: Retail Administrative Assistants Management Analysts Sales Reps, Wholesale and Manufacturing Accountants and Auditors Librarians Physicians and Surgeons First-line Supervisors: Non-Retail Sales Customer Service Representatives Financial Managers General and Operations Managers What do History Majors Really Do? Percentage of History Majors by Occupation High Status Education Other
  9. 9. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 9 85% of BLS projected growth rates are off by 50% or more. BLS Forecast Accuracy 2% 3% 10% 21% 23% 23% 19% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% <10% 10-25% 25-50% 50-75% 75-100% 100-150% 150+ Percentage of SOCs Percentage Error BLS Forecast Error Actual Employment vs. Projected Employment Growth 2012-2015 Source: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics and BLS Employment Projections 2012-2022. Note: BLS forecasts are for 2022. BLS 2012 base and annual growth rate vs. actual growth from 2012 to 2015.
  10. 10. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 10 BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook
  11. 11. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 11 BLS Occupational Employment Statistics Despite its limitations, BLS is a frequently-used source on employment.
  12. 12. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 12 BLS 10th-Percentile Wages Wage profiles by occupation are available from BLS. $57,480 $81,350 $119,280 $168,390 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 10th Percentile 25th Percentile Median 75th Percentile BLS Wages Wages by Percentile Marketing and Sales Manager 11-2020.00 Source: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/oes
  13. 13. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 13 Educational Attainment of Workers By SOC Educational attainment indicates the degree level needed in the occupation.
  14. 14. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 14 Placement Rates Placement rates by program highlight the employability of program graduates.
  15. 15. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 15 Placement Rates Regulations require many institutions to disclose placement rates on their websites.
  16. 16. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 16 Job Postings: Employer-Site or Total? Job-posting data come from three sources, which vary in quality. Job Sites Recruiters Employers ✔
  17. 17. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 17 Job Postings Data Job postings are available from Burning Glass, CEB TalentNeuron, and others.
  18. 18. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 18 Job postings in 2014 were a reliable predictor of job postings in 2016. Job Postings: Predictive Power 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2016 Job Postings 2014 Job Postings Job Postings By 8-Digit SOC Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions. Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies. Correlation: 0.969 Registered Nurses Retail Salespersons Managers, All Other Security Guards
  19. 19. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 19 Data for a single program is a challenge to interpret. Data Interpretation New Job Postings: 153,611 ?
  20. 20. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 20 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percentiles and color codes aide interpretation. Data Interpretation New Job Postings Percentiles for all Programs N =1,000 Program 1: 153,611 Program 800: 10,000 Program Percentile
  21. 21. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 21 Interpreting employment information requires a context. Employment Data: Interpretation
  22. 22. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 22 Agenda 1.  Employment Opportunity Data: Sources, Uses, and Limitations 2.  U.S. Employment Trends: Job Postings
  23. 23. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 23 10% 3% 0% -2% -10% 0% 10% 20% High school or vocational training Associate's degree Graduate or professional degree Bachelor's degree 2016 YoY Change in Job Postings* (January through December) Job Postings: Required Degree Level National Job Postings illustrate degree requirements and trends. Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions. Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.
  24. 24. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 24 Job Postings: Geographic Density Employment is a very local phenomenon, led by the West Coast. Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions. Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies. Map circle size represents ratio of job postings to employed population. Metro  Area   Job  Pos-ngs  per  10,000   people  employed   Portland-­‐Vancouver-­‐Hillsboro   307   San  Francisco-­‐Oakland-­‐Hayward   301   Sea>le-­‐Tacoma-­‐Bellevue,   275   Denver-­‐Aurora-­‐Lakewood,   259   Washington-­‐Arlington-­‐Alexandria   256   Atlanta-­‐Sandy  Springs-­‐Roswell   230   Dallas-­‐Fort  Worth-­‐Arlington   219   Phoenix-­‐Mesa-­‐Sco>sdale   209   Boston-­‐Cambridge-­‐Nashua   195   Philadelphia-­‐Camden-­‐Wilmington   189   New  York-­‐Newark-­‐Jersey  City   159   Los  Angeles-­‐Long  Beach-­‐Anaheim   148   Houston-­‐The  Woodlands-­‐Sugar  Land   146   Chicago-­‐Naperville-­‐Elgin,   139   Miami-­‐Fort  Lauderdale-­‐West  Palm  Beach   135  
  25. 25. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 25 Job Postings: The Big 5 Cities Employer demand trends vary substantially by location. 6% -9% 19% 23% 15% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% New York, NY Houston, TX San Francisco, CA Atlanta, GA Los Angeles, CA 2016 YoY Job Posting Growth Five Cities with the Most Job Postings Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions. Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.
  26. 26. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 26 Job Postings: Salaries in the Big 5 Cities Wages also vary by location. 649 758 371 473 781 908 527 476 283 704 1,651 756 842 313 878 2,121 567 1,874 1,251 1,010 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 New York, NY Houston, TX San Francisco, CA Atlanta, GA Los Angeles, CA Five Cities with the Most Job Postings 2016 Salary Distribution More than $75,000 $50,000 to $74,999 $35,000 to $49,999 Less than $35,000 Avg. Salary $70,716 $57,014 $81,255 $77,996 $62,684 Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Technologies. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions. Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies. Excludes job postings without salary information. Job Postings
  27. 27. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 27 Job Postings: Ten Largest Occupations Healthcare and IT took the top five slots for job posting volume. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 Registered Nurses Managers, All Other Computer Occupations, All Other Software Developers, Applications Medical and Health Services Managers Sales Managers General and Operations Managers Human Resources Specialists Management Analysts Financial Managers Job Postings in 2016 Ten Largest Occupations Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher). Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies. Managers Healthcare IT
  28. 28. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 28 The fastest-growing occupations are dominated by healthcare and education. Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Occupations 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education Pharmacists Medical Equipment Repairers Education Administrators, Preschool and Special Education Teachers, All Other Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists Radiologic Technologists Chemists Respiratory Therapists Speech-Language Pathologists Job Postings in 2016 Ten Fastest-Growing Occupations in the U.S. Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher). Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies. Education Healthcare
  29. 29. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 29 Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Skill Clusters The top skill cluster is Microsoft Office. 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 IT: Microsoft Office and Productivity Tools Business: People Management Customer and Client Support: Basic Customer Finance: Budget Management Business: Project Management Sales: General Sales Administration: Scheduling Business: Business Process and Analysis Business: Business Management Business: Business Strategy Job Postings in 2016 Ten Most-Requested Skill-Clusters Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher). Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.
  30. 30. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 30 Job Postings: Most Requested Specialized Skills Microsoft Excel is the most frequently-requested specialized skill. 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Microsoft Excel Microsoft Office Budgeting Scheduling Supervisory Skills Customer Service Project Management Microsoft Powerpoint Sales Microsoft Word Job Postings in 2016 Ten Most-Requested Specialized Skills in the US Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher). Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies. Microsoft Other
  31. 31. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 31 Half of the ten fastest-growing specialized skill clusters are in healthcare. Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Skill Clusters 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Supply Chain and Logistics: Inventory Health Care: Pharmacy Finance: Cash Management Health Care: Medical Procedure and Regulation Health Care: Medical Records Marketing and Public Relations: Packaging and Administration: Office Machines Health Care: Patient Reception Health Care: Medical Billing and Coding Finance: Financial Advisement Job Postings in 2016 Ten Fastest-Growing Skill Clusters Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher). Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies. Other Healthcare
  32. 32. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 32 Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Certifications Nationally, healthcare, especially RN, dominates the jobs requiring certification. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000120,000 Registered Nurse Security Clearance Project Management Certification (e.g., PMP) Basic Cardiac Life Support Certification Certified Public Accountant (CPA) Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) Series 7 American Heart Association Certificate Cert. Info. Sys. Security. Pro. (CISSP) Nurse Practitioner Job Postings in 2016 Ten Most-Requested Certifications in the U.S. 1. Includes only the 200 largest certifications in occupations that require at least an Associate’s degree. Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions. Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies. Other Healthcare
  33. 33. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 33 Interpreting employment information requires a context. Employment Data: Interpretation
  34. 34. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 34 CIP 43.0107 – Criminal Justice/Police Science. Program Scorecard: Employment
  35. 35. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 35 CIP 43.0107 – Criminal Justice/Police Science. Program Scorecard: Employment
  36. 36. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 36 CIP 43.0107 – Criminal Justice/Police Science. Program Scorecard: Employment
  37. 37. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 37 Evaluating Markets for Programs Best-practices: gather sound data on four topics. Student Demand February 2 Employment March 2 Degree Fit March 30 Competitive Intensity March 30
  38. 38. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 38 Employment in Context
  39. 39. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 39 Summary §  BLS data is readily available, but is dated and a weak indicator of trends. §  Job posting data is vital for trends in employment growth, skills and certifications. §  Aligning labor data (SOCs) with programs (CIPs) is hard and error-prone. §  Numbers for one program lack the context needed to interpret the data. §  Employment is only one part of the puzzle. §  As a result, DIY is quite expensive, time-consuming, and error-prone. §  Gray’s Program Evaluation System can do the heavy lifting for you. Assessing employer demand in your markets is no easy task.
  40. 40. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 40 Evaluating Markets for Programs On March 30th we will share best practices for assessing Competition and Fit. Student Demand February 2 Employment March 2 Degree Fit March 30 Competitive Intensity March 30 Decision-Making Process April 22
  41. 41. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 41 For More Information To contact Gray Associates: Bob Atkins CEO Gray Associates, Inc. Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com 617-366-2836

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