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Market Review and Outlook QE Index and Volume
The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index gained 414.92 points, or 4.51%,
during the week, to close at 9,619.84 points. Market capitalization
increased by 4.02% to reach QR525.7 billion (bn) as compared to
QR505.4bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 42 listed
companies, 40 companies ended the week higher and 2 remained
unchanged. Qatari Investors Group (KHCD) was the best performing
stock with a gain of 12.20%; the stock is up 30.00% year-to-date
(YTD). There were no decliners this week.
Perceived ease in geo-political issues led to some recovery in
the regional markets. Dubai‟s benchmark index (DFMGI) was the
best performer, appreciating 8.62% week-on-week (WoW). The index
remains the best performing index in the region, up 56.5% YTD. The
second best performing market was Abu Dhabi, gaining 5.15% WoW.
Other regional indices also appreciated in the range of 2.5% to 4.5%
during the week with the exception of Bahrain (flat WoW
performance). Going forward, we maintain our view that
developments on the geo-political front will be the primary catalyst for
the market.
In our view, regional investors should also keep a close eye on
cues from the US Fed. Investors are waiting for any cues on when
the US Federal Reserve will start tapering its asset-purchasing
program Quantitative Easing (QE). According to QNB group, if the
Fed starts QE tapering in its forthcoming meeting on September 17-
18 as announced, this is likely to unleash further emerging market
(EM) capital flight, thus undermining their economic growth and
reducing global export demand. This will inevitably have a knock-on
effect on the relatively weak growth in the US and the incipient
recovery in Europe. Ultimately, QE tapering may well be self-
defeating as it could in fact lead to lower growth both in the US and
the rest of the world, thus derailing the global economic recovery.
Trading value during the week increased by 15.74% to reach
QR1.7bn vs. QR1.5bn in the prior week. The Banks & Financial
Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for
26.93% of the total equity trading value.
Trading volume also increased by 18.03% to reach 43.9 million
(mn) shares vs. 37.2mn shares in the prior week. The number of
transactions rose by 6.26% to reach 21,473 transactions versus
20,208 transactions in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led the
trading volume, accounting for 34.47% of the total.
Foreign institutions remained bearish for the week with net selling
of QR21.4mn (including t-bonds) versus net selling QR59.4mn in
the prior week. Non-Qatari individuals were net buyers of QR42.4mn
versus net buying QR2.5mn in the prior week. Finally, local institutions
were net sellers of QR26.0mn (including t-bonds) versus net buying of
QR96.6mn the week before.
Market Indicators
Week ended
Sep 12, 2013
Week ended
Sep 05, 2013
Chg. %
Value Traded (QR mn) 1,701.7 1,470.2 15.7
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 525,718.1 505,406.3 4.0
Volume (mn) 43.9 37.2 18.0
Number of Transactions 21,473 20,208 6.3
Companies Traded 42 42 0.0
Market Breadth 40:0 2:39 –
Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD%
Total Return 13,744.54 4.5 0.0 21.5
All Share Index 2,422.15 4.1 (0.1) 20.2
Banks/Financial Svcs. 2,361.93 4.6 0.6 21.2
Industrials 3,046.72 3.1 (1.1) 16.0
Transportation 1,769.84 4.5 0.5 32.0
Real Estate 1,735.13 5.0 1.0 7.7
Insurance 2,223.18 1.0 (0.5) 13.2
Telecoms 1,432.99 6.1 (0.3) 34.6
Consumer 5,796.40 3.6 (1.3) 24.1
Al Rayan Islamic Index 2,759.58 4.5 0.5 10.9
Market Indices
Weekly Index Performance
Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD%
Weekly Exchange
Traded Value ($ mn)
Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn)
TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield
Qatar (QE)* 9,619.84 4.5 0.0 15.1 487.44 144,414.8 12.1 1.7 4.8
Dubai 2,538.56 8.6 0.6 56.5 1,068.50 63,042.94 14.8 1.0 3.5
Abu Dhabi 3,719.83 5.2 (0.4) 41.4 538.60 107,766.3 10.6 1.3 4.8
Saudi Arabia 7,893.67 3.4 1.6 16.1 7,806.06 415,903.0#
16.5 2.1 3.7
Kuwait 7,587.21 5.1 (0.6) 27.9 824.91 109,184.4 17.5 1.2 3.8
Oman 6,574.92 2.5 (1.7) 14.1 147.37 23,091.6 10.8 1.6 3.9
Bahrain 1,181.71 0.1 (0.6) 10.9 2.47 21,685.5 8.3 0.8 4.0
Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) (
#
Data as of September 11, 2013)
9,257.81
9,151.28
9,596.26
9,587.95 9,619.84
0
12,500,000
25,000,000
8,900
9,300
9,700
8-Sep 9-Sep 10-Sep 11-Sep 12-Sep
Volume QE Index
8.6%
5.2% 5.1% 4.5%
3.4%
2.5%
0.1%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Dubai
AbuDhabi
Kuwait
Qatar
SaudiArabia
Oman
Bahrain
Page 2 of 5
News
Economic News
 Qatar's trade surplus at QR32.9bn in July – According
to the data released by Qatar's Ministry of Development
Planning & Statistics (MDPS), the country's trade
balance of goods showed a surplus of QR32.9bn in July
2013, indicating a decrease of 2.6% YoY. The total
exports of goods decreased 1.6% YoY to QR41.3bn,
whereas the value of imports went up 2.7% YoY to
QR8.4bn. The exports increase was mainly from
petroleum oils & oils from bituminous minerals (crude)
that showed 13.5% YoY growth. However, this increase
was partially offset by the drop in exports of petroleum
gases & other gaseous hydrocarbons, and petroleum oils
& oils from bituminous minerals (not crude). The main
destination countries were Japan with a share of 28% of
total exports, followed by South Korea (14%) and India
(11%). Motor cars & other passenger vehicles, aircraft
spare parts, and telephones sets were the main imported
products in July 2013. China and the US and were the
leading countries of origin with a share of 10% of total
imports each, followed by the UAE with 7%. (QSA)
 QCB issues QR4bn T-bills – The Qatar Central Bank
(QCB) issued treasury bills worth QR4bn on September
3, 2013. Total bids came up to QR4.5bn for all the three
maturities combined as compared to QR4.02bn in August
2013. Yield on 91-day T-bills rose to 0.87% from 0.82%
and it was up to 1.15% from 1.04% for 182-day T-bills,
while for 273-day notes, yield fell to 1.22% from 1.23%.
(QCB)
 Qatari population rises on infrastructure spending –
According to a report released by QNB Group, the
massive infrastructure investment program in preparation
for the 2022 World Cup is driving the population growth
in Qatar, which will exceed 2mn by the year-end. Qatar‟s
population grew at a seasonally-adjusted 10.5% in
August 2013, which was the fastest population growth
rate in the world. The report stated that as the
government ramps up infrastructure investment and
creates new jobs, population is expected to grow at
10.9% in 2013. According to QNB Group, this would
create an estimated 120,000 new jobs in 2013. The
country‟s total population is expected to grow from
1.96mn in August to 2.03mn by December 2013, but this
growth would drive inflation up to around 3.8% in 2014.
(Gulf-Times.com)
Market & Corporate News
 New QE plans may double number of listed firms in
five years – The Qatar Financial Markets Authority‟s
(QFMA) Director Zain al Abdin Sharar said new capital
market regulations including plans to launch a second
market on the Qatar Exchange could double the number
of listed companies in the country in the next five years.
He added that the forecast of a sharp increase in the
number of listed firms and the volume of trade on the
exchange would reflect the impact of a wide-ranging
capital market reform. He also said that QFMA has new
rules for listing on the second market, which is for the
companies that cannot meet requirements for listing on
the primary market. QFMA have amended the corporate
governance code for companies listed on the main
market to improve the disclosure requirements. He also
added that QFMA was about to issue new rules for
financial adequacy for financial service firms. These will
help the market to be more efficient and to protect the
market against any unseen circumstances. Sharar added
QFMA will soon issue new M&A rules for listed
companies regarding disclosures. (Gulf-Times.com)
 S&P affirms QNB at A+/A-1, outlook Stable – S&P has
affirmed Qatar National Bank‟s (QNB) A+ long-term and
A-1 short-term counterparty credit ratings. The outlook is
stable.
 QCB: Qatar money market quite liquid, QR4bn bonds
and sukuk oversubscribed – The Qatar Central Bank‟s
(QCB) Governor HE Sheikh Abdullah Saoud Al-Thani
said QCB will continue to drain QR4bn a month from the
money market through its monthly Treasury bill auctions.
Sheikh Abdullah also said that the recent auction of riyal-
denominated government bonds has been
oversubscribed, which indicates that liquidity is still
positive. On September 10, the central bank offered a
total of QR4bn in three and five-year local currency
government bonds and sukuk in a quarterly issue, which
it allocates directly to banks. (Gulf-Times.com)
 Asia drives global energy demand – Qatar‟s Minister
of Energy & Industry HE Dr. Mohamed bin Saleh Al-Sada
said Asia remains the driver for global energy demand
due to its robust economic growth and increasing
population. Al-Sada added that Asian economies are not
just demanding more energy, but also cleaner and more
flexible energy. In 2012, Asia imported an additional
15.6mn tons of LNG, representing a 10% increase over
the previous year. Japan alone was responsible for more
than 50% of Asian LNG consumption growth, but that is
mostly due to the shutdown of its nuclear reactors. He
said gas prices will remain regionalized for the
foreseeable future. The global gas market will continue to
be divided with persisting discrepancies in pricing,
market outlook and structure, despite Asian consumer
efforts to change the pricing structure. (Gulf-Times.com)
 ORDS’ Iraq-based subsidiary appoints new CEO –
Ooredoo‟s (ORDS) Iraq-based subsidiary, Asiacell
Communications (TASC) has appointed Mr. Amer Al Sunna as
its new CEO. He had earlier joined the Ooredoo Group of
companies as the CEO of Wi-Tribe Jordan in August 2010, and
was subsequently appointed as Chief Operating Advisor of Wi-
Tribe Philippines in August 2011. He was appointed as the
Managing Director of Asiacell Iraq in February 2013. (ADX)
 QA to join Oneworld airline alliance on October 30 – Qatar
Airways (QA) is set to become a full member of Oneworld
alliance from October 30, 2013, adding the world‟s fastest
growing airline to the global leading airline alliance. QA was the
only one of the Gulf Big Three carriers slated to join any of the
global airline alliances. (Gulf-Times.com)
Page 3 of 5
Qatar Exchange
Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Laggards
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million)
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million)
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
12.2%
8.8%
6.8% 6.6%
6.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Qatari
Investors
Group
Al Meera
Consumer
Goods
Gulf
International
Services
Ooredoo Medicare
Group
0.0% 0.0%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
Qatar National
Cement
Qatar General
Insurance &
Reinsurance
Mannai Corp. Qatar Cinema
& Film
Distribution
Qatar
Electricity and
Water
There were no decliners this week
259.2
208.8
127.9
107.3
79.6
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
Industries
Qatar
United
Development
QNB Group Masraf Al
Rayan
Barwa Real
Estate
10.0
3.8 3.7
3.2
2.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
United
Development
Qatar Gas
Transport
(Nakilat)
Masraf Al
Rayan
Barwa Real
Estate
Qatari
Investors
Group
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Buy Sell
47.88% 47.58%
14.93% 16.46%
19.48% 16.99%
17.71% 18.97%
Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions
Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions
1,069
633
1,090
612
(21)
21
(200) - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Qatari
Non-Qatari
Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
Page 4 of 5
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
After threatening to escalate into a freefall last week, the QE Index rebounded from its week‟s low of 9,151.28 and closed above the 9,600.0 psychological
mark. The index registered few positive developments last week as it breached the three psychological levels (9,300.0, 9,400.0 and 9,500.0), and was able
to stop the last two weeks‟ continuous slide. The index was able to close higher around 415 points this week, which is a positive sign for the traders. The
index witnessed a week full of volatility and registered the highest day gains so far of 445 points on Tuesday, thus completely defeating the bears and
nullifying the steep fall. In all, the bulls turned out to be more powerful than the bears. Technically speaking, the index has seen a good rally from the lower
levels displaying good resistance from the bulls, who trapped the bears. The index has once again entered the congestion zone and now faces an
immediate resistance near the 9,670.0 level; it needs to breach this level in order to continue its upmove. If the index manages to penetrate this level, it may
stand a good chance of proceeding toward the 9,700.0 and 9,800.0 levels. On the downside, the immediate support comes in at the 55-day moving average
(currently at 9,594.84). A breakdown below this support could lead to a drop toward the 9,500.0 level, followed by 9,400.0. Meanwhile, both indicators are
providing mixed signals indicating caution ahead.
DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates
between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if
the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the
convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the
MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.
Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The „body‟ of the chart is portion between
the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the „shadow‟. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day
candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis.
Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and
based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal.
Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each
other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The
Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui
Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa
QNB Financial Services SPC
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025, Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar
Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an
offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential
investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be
reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts,
QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right
to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views
and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 5 of 5
Source: Bloomberg
Company Name
Price
(Sep 12)
% Change 5-
Day
% Change
Monthly
Market Cap.
QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield
Qatar National Bank 169.80 5.79 1.37 118,814 13.3 2.5 3.5
Qatar Islamic Bank 68.40 2.55 (2.01) 16,162 14.3 1.4 5.5
Commercial Bank of Qatar 67.70 2.11 (1.02) 16,752 8.3 1.2 8.9
Doha Bank 53.60 5.93 (0.19) 13,849 9.3 1.6 7.7
Al Ahli Bank 55.00 5.77 0.00 6,989 13.5 2.1 5.5
Qatar International Islamic Bank 56.30 3.11 1.44 8,522 12.1 1.7 6.2
Masraf Al Rayan 29.20 4.10 1.04 21,900 13.7 2.3 3.4
Al Khaliji Bank 18.63 4.08 0.76 6,707 12.4 1.3 5.4
National Leasing 34.10 4.28 (0.29) 1,687 9.9 1.3 5.9
Dlala Holding 21.60 6.14 12.15 480 N/M 2.2 N/A
Qatar & Oman Investment 13.00 5.61 4.42 410 21.4 1.3 3.8
Islamic Holding Group 39.15 5.81 0.90 157 25.0 3.0 2.9
Banking and Financial Services 212,428
Zad Holding 64.90 4.34 3.02 849 7.6 1.1 6.2
Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 14.74 3.08 2.36 170 N/M 0.9 N/A
Salam International Investment 12.28 1.74 (1.60) 1,404 23.3 0.9 5.7
Medicare Group 47.30 6.17 (1.36) 1,331 22.4 1.7 3.8
Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 49.35 0.51 0.51 282 29.9 2.1 4.0
Qatar Fuel 278.30 3.07 (1.63) 18,081 15.8 3.2 3.6
Qatar Meat and Livestock 50.00 1.01 (5.12) 900 13.7 3.9 8.0
Al Meera Consumer Goods 132.90 8.76 1.06 2,658 17.5 2.2 6.0
Consumer Goods and Services 25,675
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 49.50 1.02 2.91 1,960 11.5 1.5 6.1
Qatar National Cement 101.00 0.00 (1.17) 4,959 11.4 2.1 5.9
Industries Qatar 151.30 3.63 (1.43) 91,537 10.2 3.0 5.1
Qatari Investors Group 29.90 12.20 6.60 3,717 18.7 1.8 2.5
Qatar Electricity and Water 154.00 0.59 (2.53) 15,400 10.7 2.9 4.7
Mannai Corp. 83.50 0.36 (0.60) 3,809 8.8 1.7 5.7
Aamal 14.39 0.63 (1.44) 8,634 13.5 1.3 N/A
Gulf International Services 47.20 6.79 (1.67) 7,017 12.5 2.6 3.2
Industrials 137,034
Qatar Insurance 60.00 0.84 0.00 7,706 9.3 1.6 3.4
Doha Insurance 25.25 1.00 (2.88) 650 11.8 1.3 3.6
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 51.00 0.00 (0.58) 2,940 3.5 0.9 1.7
Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 40.15 5.10 (0.86) 686 14.4 1.2 2.1
Qatar Islamic Insurance 55.70 3.15 (2.96) 836 14.1 3.2 6.3
Insurance 12,817
United Development 21.20 5.89 (0.93) 7,149 9.4 0.7 4.7
Barwa Real Estate 25.10 4.58 2.45 9,767 16.2 0.8 6.0
Ezdan Real Estate 17.32 0.81 (0.69) 45,941 N/M 1.7 0.8
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 11.54 2.49 1.85 1,154 17.3 1.1 5.2
Real Estate 64,011
Qatar Telecom 138.50 6.62 (0.36) 44,364 13.2 1.7 3.6
Vodafone Qatar 9.06 2.84 0.44 7,659 N/M 1.3 N/A
Telecoms 52,024
Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 78.80 3.55 1.03 9,025 9.3 0.8 4.8
Gulf Warehousing 40.35 2.93 1.51 1,919 19.9 2.5 N/A
Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 19.26 5.53 (0.16) 10,786 14.3 3.4 5.2
Transportation 21,729
Qatar Exchange 525,718

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Weekly Market Report

  • 1. Page 1 of 5 Market Review and Outlook QE Index and Volume The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index gained 414.92 points, or 4.51%, during the week, to close at 9,619.84 points. Market capitalization increased by 4.02% to reach QR525.7 billion (bn) as compared to QR505.4bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 42 listed companies, 40 companies ended the week higher and 2 remained unchanged. Qatari Investors Group (KHCD) was the best performing stock with a gain of 12.20%; the stock is up 30.00% year-to-date (YTD). There were no decliners this week. Perceived ease in geo-political issues led to some recovery in the regional markets. Dubai‟s benchmark index (DFMGI) was the best performer, appreciating 8.62% week-on-week (WoW). The index remains the best performing index in the region, up 56.5% YTD. The second best performing market was Abu Dhabi, gaining 5.15% WoW. Other regional indices also appreciated in the range of 2.5% to 4.5% during the week with the exception of Bahrain (flat WoW performance). Going forward, we maintain our view that developments on the geo-political front will be the primary catalyst for the market. In our view, regional investors should also keep a close eye on cues from the US Fed. Investors are waiting for any cues on when the US Federal Reserve will start tapering its asset-purchasing program Quantitative Easing (QE). According to QNB group, if the Fed starts QE tapering in its forthcoming meeting on September 17- 18 as announced, this is likely to unleash further emerging market (EM) capital flight, thus undermining their economic growth and reducing global export demand. This will inevitably have a knock-on effect on the relatively weak growth in the US and the incipient recovery in Europe. Ultimately, QE tapering may well be self- defeating as it could in fact lead to lower growth both in the US and the rest of the world, thus derailing the global economic recovery. Trading value during the week increased by 15.74% to reach QR1.7bn vs. QR1.5bn in the prior week. The Banks & Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 26.93% of the total equity trading value. Trading volume also increased by 18.03% to reach 43.9 million (mn) shares vs. 37.2mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions rose by 6.26% to reach 21,473 transactions versus 20,208 transactions in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading volume, accounting for 34.47% of the total. Foreign institutions remained bearish for the week with net selling of QR21.4mn (including t-bonds) versus net selling QR59.4mn in the prior week. Non-Qatari individuals were net buyers of QR42.4mn versus net buying QR2.5mn in the prior week. Finally, local institutions were net sellers of QR26.0mn (including t-bonds) versus net buying of QR96.6mn the week before. Market Indicators Week ended Sep 12, 2013 Week ended Sep 05, 2013 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 1,701.7 1,470.2 15.7 Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 525,718.1 505,406.3 4.0 Volume (mn) 43.9 37.2 18.0 Number of Transactions 21,473 20,208 6.3 Companies Traded 42 42 0.0 Market Breadth 40:0 2:39 – Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 13,744.54 4.5 0.0 21.5 All Share Index 2,422.15 4.1 (0.1) 20.2 Banks/Financial Svcs. 2,361.93 4.6 0.6 21.2 Industrials 3,046.72 3.1 (1.1) 16.0 Transportation 1,769.84 4.5 0.5 32.0 Real Estate 1,735.13 5.0 1.0 7.7 Insurance 2,223.18 1.0 (0.5) 13.2 Telecoms 1,432.99 6.1 (0.3) 34.6 Consumer 5,796.40 3.6 (1.3) 24.1 Al Rayan Islamic Index 2,759.58 4.5 0.5 10.9 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QE)* 9,619.84 4.5 0.0 15.1 487.44 144,414.8 12.1 1.7 4.8 Dubai 2,538.56 8.6 0.6 56.5 1,068.50 63,042.94 14.8 1.0 3.5 Abu Dhabi 3,719.83 5.2 (0.4) 41.4 538.60 107,766.3 10.6 1.3 4.8 Saudi Arabia 7,893.67 3.4 1.6 16.1 7,806.06 415,903.0# 16.5 2.1 3.7 Kuwait 7,587.21 5.1 (0.6) 27.9 824.91 109,184.4 17.5 1.2 3.8 Oman 6,574.92 2.5 (1.7) 14.1 147.37 23,091.6 10.8 1.6 3.9 Bahrain 1,181.71 0.1 (0.6) 10.9 2.47 21,685.5 8.3 0.8 4.0 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) ( # Data as of September 11, 2013) 9,257.81 9,151.28 9,596.26 9,587.95 9,619.84 0 12,500,000 25,000,000 8,900 9,300 9,700 8-Sep 9-Sep 10-Sep 11-Sep 12-Sep Volume QE Index 8.6% 5.2% 5.1% 4.5% 3.4% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Dubai AbuDhabi Kuwait Qatar SaudiArabia Oman Bahrain
  • 2. Page 2 of 5 News Economic News  Qatar's trade surplus at QR32.9bn in July – According to the data released by Qatar's Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics (MDPS), the country's trade balance of goods showed a surplus of QR32.9bn in July 2013, indicating a decrease of 2.6% YoY. The total exports of goods decreased 1.6% YoY to QR41.3bn, whereas the value of imports went up 2.7% YoY to QR8.4bn. The exports increase was mainly from petroleum oils & oils from bituminous minerals (crude) that showed 13.5% YoY growth. However, this increase was partially offset by the drop in exports of petroleum gases & other gaseous hydrocarbons, and petroleum oils & oils from bituminous minerals (not crude). The main destination countries were Japan with a share of 28% of total exports, followed by South Korea (14%) and India (11%). Motor cars & other passenger vehicles, aircraft spare parts, and telephones sets were the main imported products in July 2013. China and the US and were the leading countries of origin with a share of 10% of total imports each, followed by the UAE with 7%. (QSA)  QCB issues QR4bn T-bills – The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) issued treasury bills worth QR4bn on September 3, 2013. Total bids came up to QR4.5bn for all the three maturities combined as compared to QR4.02bn in August 2013. Yield on 91-day T-bills rose to 0.87% from 0.82% and it was up to 1.15% from 1.04% for 182-day T-bills, while for 273-day notes, yield fell to 1.22% from 1.23%. (QCB)  Qatari population rises on infrastructure spending – According to a report released by QNB Group, the massive infrastructure investment program in preparation for the 2022 World Cup is driving the population growth in Qatar, which will exceed 2mn by the year-end. Qatar‟s population grew at a seasonally-adjusted 10.5% in August 2013, which was the fastest population growth rate in the world. The report stated that as the government ramps up infrastructure investment and creates new jobs, population is expected to grow at 10.9% in 2013. According to QNB Group, this would create an estimated 120,000 new jobs in 2013. The country‟s total population is expected to grow from 1.96mn in August to 2.03mn by December 2013, but this growth would drive inflation up to around 3.8% in 2014. (Gulf-Times.com) Market & Corporate News  New QE plans may double number of listed firms in five years – The Qatar Financial Markets Authority‟s (QFMA) Director Zain al Abdin Sharar said new capital market regulations including plans to launch a second market on the Qatar Exchange could double the number of listed companies in the country in the next five years. He added that the forecast of a sharp increase in the number of listed firms and the volume of trade on the exchange would reflect the impact of a wide-ranging capital market reform. He also said that QFMA has new rules for listing on the second market, which is for the companies that cannot meet requirements for listing on the primary market. QFMA have amended the corporate governance code for companies listed on the main market to improve the disclosure requirements. He also added that QFMA was about to issue new rules for financial adequacy for financial service firms. These will help the market to be more efficient and to protect the market against any unseen circumstances. Sharar added QFMA will soon issue new M&A rules for listed companies regarding disclosures. (Gulf-Times.com)  S&P affirms QNB at A+/A-1, outlook Stable – S&P has affirmed Qatar National Bank‟s (QNB) A+ long-term and A-1 short-term counterparty credit ratings. The outlook is stable.  QCB: Qatar money market quite liquid, QR4bn bonds and sukuk oversubscribed – The Qatar Central Bank‟s (QCB) Governor HE Sheikh Abdullah Saoud Al-Thani said QCB will continue to drain QR4bn a month from the money market through its monthly Treasury bill auctions. Sheikh Abdullah also said that the recent auction of riyal- denominated government bonds has been oversubscribed, which indicates that liquidity is still positive. On September 10, the central bank offered a total of QR4bn in three and five-year local currency government bonds and sukuk in a quarterly issue, which it allocates directly to banks. (Gulf-Times.com)  Asia drives global energy demand – Qatar‟s Minister of Energy & Industry HE Dr. Mohamed bin Saleh Al-Sada said Asia remains the driver for global energy demand due to its robust economic growth and increasing population. Al-Sada added that Asian economies are not just demanding more energy, but also cleaner and more flexible energy. In 2012, Asia imported an additional 15.6mn tons of LNG, representing a 10% increase over the previous year. Japan alone was responsible for more than 50% of Asian LNG consumption growth, but that is mostly due to the shutdown of its nuclear reactors. He said gas prices will remain regionalized for the foreseeable future. The global gas market will continue to be divided with persisting discrepancies in pricing, market outlook and structure, despite Asian consumer efforts to change the pricing structure. (Gulf-Times.com)  ORDS’ Iraq-based subsidiary appoints new CEO – Ooredoo‟s (ORDS) Iraq-based subsidiary, Asiacell Communications (TASC) has appointed Mr. Amer Al Sunna as its new CEO. He had earlier joined the Ooredoo Group of companies as the CEO of Wi-Tribe Jordan in August 2010, and was subsequently appointed as Chief Operating Advisor of Wi- Tribe Philippines in August 2011. He was appointed as the Managing Director of Asiacell Iraq in February 2013. (ADX)  QA to join Oneworld airline alliance on October 30 – Qatar Airways (QA) is set to become a full member of Oneworld alliance from October 30, 2013, adding the world‟s fastest growing airline to the global leading airline alliance. QA was the only one of the Gulf Big Three carriers slated to join any of the global airline alliances. (Gulf-Times.com)
  • 3. Page 3 of 5 Qatar Exchange Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Laggards Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) 12.2% 8.8% 6.8% 6.6% 6.2% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Qatari Investors Group Al Meera Consumer Goods Gulf International Services Ooredoo Medicare Group 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% Qatar National Cement Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Mannai Corp. Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution Qatar Electricity and Water There were no decliners this week 259.2 208.8 127.9 107.3 79.6 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 Industries Qatar United Development QNB Group Masraf Al Rayan Barwa Real Estate 10.0 3.8 3.7 3.2 2.0 0.0 4.0 8.0 12.0 United Development Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) Masraf Al Rayan Barwa Real Estate Qatari Investors Group 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Buy Sell 47.88% 47.58% 14.93% 16.46% 19.48% 16.99% 17.71% 18.97% Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions 1,069 633 1,090 612 (21) 21 (200) - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Qatari Non-Qatari Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
  • 4. Page 4 of 5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX Source: Bloomberg After threatening to escalate into a freefall last week, the QE Index rebounded from its week‟s low of 9,151.28 and closed above the 9,600.0 psychological mark. The index registered few positive developments last week as it breached the three psychological levels (9,300.0, 9,400.0 and 9,500.0), and was able to stop the last two weeks‟ continuous slide. The index was able to close higher around 415 points this week, which is a positive sign for the traders. The index witnessed a week full of volatility and registered the highest day gains so far of 445 points on Tuesday, thus completely defeating the bears and nullifying the steep fall. In all, the bulls turned out to be more powerful than the bears. Technically speaking, the index has seen a good rally from the lower levels displaying good resistance from the bulls, who trapped the bears. The index has once again entered the congestion zone and now faces an immediate resistance near the 9,670.0 level; it needs to breach this level in order to continue its upmove. If the index manages to penetrate this level, it may stand a good chance of proceeding toward the 9,700.0 and 9,800.0 levels. On the downside, the immediate support comes in at the 55-day moving average (currently at 9,594.84). A breakdown below this support could lead to a drop toward the 9,500.0 level, followed by 9,400.0. Meanwhile, both indicators are providing mixed signals indicating caution ahead. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The „body‟ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the „shadow‟. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
  • 5. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services SPC Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025, Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 5 of 5 Source: Bloomberg Company Name Price (Sep 12) % Change 5- Day % Change Monthly Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 169.80 5.79 1.37 118,814 13.3 2.5 3.5 Qatar Islamic Bank 68.40 2.55 (2.01) 16,162 14.3 1.4 5.5 Commercial Bank of Qatar 67.70 2.11 (1.02) 16,752 8.3 1.2 8.9 Doha Bank 53.60 5.93 (0.19) 13,849 9.3 1.6 7.7 Al Ahli Bank 55.00 5.77 0.00 6,989 13.5 2.1 5.5 Qatar International Islamic Bank 56.30 3.11 1.44 8,522 12.1 1.7 6.2 Masraf Al Rayan 29.20 4.10 1.04 21,900 13.7 2.3 3.4 Al Khaliji Bank 18.63 4.08 0.76 6,707 12.4 1.3 5.4 National Leasing 34.10 4.28 (0.29) 1,687 9.9 1.3 5.9 Dlala Holding 21.60 6.14 12.15 480 N/M 2.2 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 13.00 5.61 4.42 410 21.4 1.3 3.8 Islamic Holding Group 39.15 5.81 0.90 157 25.0 3.0 2.9 Banking and Financial Services 212,428 Zad Holding 64.90 4.34 3.02 849 7.6 1.1 6.2 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 14.74 3.08 2.36 170 N/M 0.9 N/A Salam International Investment 12.28 1.74 (1.60) 1,404 23.3 0.9 5.7 Medicare Group 47.30 6.17 (1.36) 1,331 22.4 1.7 3.8 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 49.35 0.51 0.51 282 29.9 2.1 4.0 Qatar Fuel 278.30 3.07 (1.63) 18,081 15.8 3.2 3.6 Qatar Meat and Livestock 50.00 1.01 (5.12) 900 13.7 3.9 8.0 Al Meera Consumer Goods 132.90 8.76 1.06 2,658 17.5 2.2 6.0 Consumer Goods and Services 25,675 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 49.50 1.02 2.91 1,960 11.5 1.5 6.1 Qatar National Cement 101.00 0.00 (1.17) 4,959 11.4 2.1 5.9 Industries Qatar 151.30 3.63 (1.43) 91,537 10.2 3.0 5.1 Qatari Investors Group 29.90 12.20 6.60 3,717 18.7 1.8 2.5 Qatar Electricity and Water 154.00 0.59 (2.53) 15,400 10.7 2.9 4.7 Mannai Corp. 83.50 0.36 (0.60) 3,809 8.8 1.7 5.7 Aamal 14.39 0.63 (1.44) 8,634 13.5 1.3 N/A Gulf International Services 47.20 6.79 (1.67) 7,017 12.5 2.6 3.2 Industrials 137,034 Qatar Insurance 60.00 0.84 0.00 7,706 9.3 1.6 3.4 Doha Insurance 25.25 1.00 (2.88) 650 11.8 1.3 3.6 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 51.00 0.00 (0.58) 2,940 3.5 0.9 1.7 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 40.15 5.10 (0.86) 686 14.4 1.2 2.1 Qatar Islamic Insurance 55.70 3.15 (2.96) 836 14.1 3.2 6.3 Insurance 12,817 United Development 21.20 5.89 (0.93) 7,149 9.4 0.7 4.7 Barwa Real Estate 25.10 4.58 2.45 9,767 16.2 0.8 6.0 Ezdan Real Estate 17.32 0.81 (0.69) 45,941 N/M 1.7 0.8 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 11.54 2.49 1.85 1,154 17.3 1.1 5.2 Real Estate 64,011 Qatar Telecom 138.50 6.62 (0.36) 44,364 13.2 1.7 3.6 Vodafone Qatar 9.06 2.84 0.44 7,659 N/M 1.3 N/A Telecoms 52,024 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 78.80 3.55 1.03 9,025 9.3 0.8 4.8 Gulf Warehousing 40.35 2.93 1.51 1,919 19.9 2.5 N/A Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 19.26 5.53 (0.16) 10,786 14.3 3.4 5.2 Transportation 21,729 Qatar Exchange 525,718