Weekly market report

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Weekly market report

  1. 1. Page 1 of 5 Market Review and Outlook QE Index and Volume The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index gained 23.93 points, or 0.21%, during the trading week, to close at 11,367.31 points. Market capitalization decreased by 0.5% to reach QR634.5 billion (bn) as compared to QR637.7bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 43 listed companies, 27 companies ended the week higher, while 15 fell and 1 remained unchanged. Zad Holding (ZHCD) was the best performing stock for the week, with a gain of 12.93% on 0.1 million (mn) shares traded. On the other hand, Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Co. (MPHC) was the worst performing stock with a decline of 8.38% on 10.6mn shares traded. During the week, the QE announced the results of its semi-annual index review. According to the announcement, Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK) and Medicare Group (MCGS) will replace National Leasing or Alijarah Holding (NLCS) and Widam Food Co. (WDAM) in the QE Index on April 01, 2014. The index is rebalanced twice a year. As per index rules, the maximum weight any stock can have in the QE index is 15% (and excess weight will be allocated to the remaining stocks proportionately). On the international front, the key news was the further scaling down of bond purchases by the US Federal Reserve and potential interest rate increases in 2015. The US Fed decided to cut bond purchases by a further $10bn per month. This is the third time in a row that the central bank has tightened its stimulus efforts. The latest reduction brings the Fed's monthly bond-buying down to $55bn from $85bn last year. Trading value during the week decreased by 15.2% to reach QR3.28bn vs. QR3.87bn in the prior week. The Industrials sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 35.1% of the total equity trading value. Barwa Real Estate Company (BRES) was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR476.3mn. Trading volume declined by 10.7% to reach 72.6mn shares vs. 81.4mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions fell by 3.4% to reach 44,274 transactions versus 45,854 transactions in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading volume, accounting for 35.1%. BRES was also the top volume traded stock during the week with total traded volume of 13.2mn shares. Foreign institutions turned bearish for the week with net selling of QR43.6mn vs. net buying of QR20.5mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions remained bullish with net buying of QR59.7mn vs. net buying of QR577.6mn the week before. Foreign retail investors turned bullish for the week with net buying of QR42.3mn vs. net selling of QR59.5mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors remained bearish with net selling of QR58.3mn vs. QR538.5mn the week before. Thus far in 2014, the QE has already witnessed net foreign portfolio investment inflow of ~$736mn. Market Indicators Week ended Mar 20, 2014 Week ended Mar 13, 2014 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 3,278.1 3,865.9 (15.2) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 634,540.0 637,717.7 (0.5) Volume (mn) 72.6 81.4 (10.7) Number of Transactions 44,274 45,854 (3.4) Companies Traded 43 43 0.0 Market Breadth 27:15 15:28 – Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 16,807.56 0.6 (1.3) 13.3 All Share Index 2,906.19 0.7 (1.7) 12.3 Banks/Financial Svcs. 2,734.01 (1.0) (4.7) 11.9 Industrials 4,025.85 2.6 1.5 15.0 Transportation 1,984.44 (1.0) (1.6) 6.8 Real Estate 2,147.94 (1.1) 6.4 10.0 Insurance 2,825.23 4.4 0.5 20.9 Telecoms 1,506.75 2.0 (5.7) 3.6 Consumer 6,913.78 3.3 0.8 16.2 Al Rayan Islamic Index 3,485.84 1.3 3.3 14.8 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QE)* 11,367.31 0.2 (3.4) 9.5 874.90 174,244.7 15.2 1.9 4.3 Dubai 4,303.55 8.1 2.0 27.7 2,663.44 86,856.4 18.2 1.6 2.2 Abu Dhabi 4,784.85 0.7 (3.5) 11.5 800.19 127,357.0 13.6 1.7 3.6 Saudi Arabia 9,305.64 (0.9) 2.2 9.0 10,934.87 505,899.5# 18.8 2.3 3.2 Kuwait 7,557.29 1.4 (1.8) 0.1 566.95 113,214.4 15.9 1.2 3.7 Oman 6,932.50 (1.8) (2.5) 1.4 96.41 24,919.0 11.0 1.6 3.8 Bahrain 1,386.27 0.8 1.0 11.0 14.23 51,956.7 9.8 0.9 3.9 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) ( # Data as of March 19, 2014) 11,331.05 11,401.65 11,418.76 11,388.14 11,367.31 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 11,280 11,360 11,440 16-Mar 17-Mar 18-Mar 19-Mar 20-Mar Volume QE Index 8.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% (0.9%) (1.8%)(3.5%) 0.0% 3.5% 7.0% 10.5% Dubai Kuwait Bahrain AbuDhabi Qatar SaudiArabia Oman
  2. 2. Page 2 of 5 News Economic News  QNB Group: Gas demand growth set to benefit Qatar – Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing energy source until 2035, according to the latest BP Energy Outlook 2035. Between 2012 and 2035, natural gas demand is expected to grow by an average 1.9% per year, outpacing all other energy sources. LNG exports are expected to grow more than twice as fast as gas consumption, at an average of 3.9% per year, and accounting for 26% of growth in global gas supply to 2035. Such large demand is likely to put upward pressure on natural gas prices, including LNG, and as a result Qatar is likely to benefit significantly from these developments. (QNB Group, Gulf-Times.com)  Deposit growth outpaced loan growth in the month of February 2014 – Loans climbed by 1.0% month-over-month (MoM) in February 2014. This is after a strong performance of 2.3% MoM in January 2014. However, deposits expanded by 3.9% MoM in the month of February 2014 (+1.0% MoM in January 2014). Hence, the banking sector‟s loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) decreased to 104% at the end of February 2014 vs. 107% in January 2014. Going forward, we expect activity in the banking sector to pick up in the coming months with the public sector leading the way. (QCB, QNBFS Research)  MEED: Qatar project market outlook strong amid $285bn spending plans – According to data from MEED Projects, the outlook for Qatar‟s project market until 2020 is strong as projects planned or underway have reached an estimated value of $285bn. Although the massive project activity is attributed to Qatar‟s preparations for the FIFA World Cup 2022, the bulk of the projects are actually part of the plan for the Qatar National Vision 2030 economic roadmap. Qatar is undertaking a number of mega projects in order to accomplish its National Vision, with significant investments being poured into transportation and shipping infrastructure. These investments include the construction of Hamad International Airport, the New Doha Port, and several mega cities such as Lusail and Msheireb. (Gulf-Times.com)  MEED: Tenders for 10 new stadiums to be issued in 2014 – Qatar, whose projects market witnessed a 21% growth in 2013 and is slated to see new deals worth $140bn-150bn in 2014, will soon invite tenders for some 10 projects related to hosting the 2022 World Cup. According to the MEED Insight Report, with an average yearly $16bn outlay during 2008-13, Qatar accounted for 12% ($96bn) of the total projects awarded in the GCC region. Yasser al-Mulla, Project Manager at Al-Rayyan Precinct for Supreme Committee for Delivery & Legacy said Qatar will issue some 10 tenders in 2014 for project managers and design consultants on the stadiums being built for the games. Doha expects to spend an additional $4bn for building stadiums and related sporting infrastructure for the World Cup. The largest new stadium planned is „Lusail Iconic‟, which will have a capacity of around 86,000 people and is to be used for the opening match and the finals. (Gulf-Times.com)  Qatar issues $2.2bn tender for Doha Metro phase one – Qatar has issued a new tender for phase one of the Doha Metro, a key infrastructure project in the Gulf country as it prepares to host the 2022 World Cup. According to sources, the tender, issued earlier this month, is for the rolling stock, systems, depot facilities, track work and other aspects of Doha Metro. The tender, which could cross $2.2bn, would be the final one for the metro‟s phase one and the contract is expected to be awarded in the next five months. Last year, Qatar awarded four design & build contracts worth about $8.2bn for phase one of the Doha Metro. (Gulf-Times.com)  QCB: Qatar to sign construction projects worth $50bn – The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) Governor HE Sheikh Abdullah bin Saud Al Thani said that Qatar‟s government is expected to sign various contracts for construction projects worth as much as $50bn in 2014 as it builds infrastructure needed to host the soccer World Cup in 2022. HE Sheikh Abdullah said that these projects will be in transport, energy and other sectors. He stated that this reflected the rapid development of the Qatari economy and the extended growth expected in the next few years for achieving the Qatar National Vision (QNV) 2030. He mentioned that in order to achieve the QNV 2030 goals, various QCB initiatives, including the strategy of supervisory and regulatory bodies have been launched. (Gulf-Times.com, Peninsula Qatar)  $6.5bn Al Karaana petchem project eyes Asian markets – The new Al Karaana petrochemicals project – a 80:20 JV of Qatar Petroleum and Shell – is eyeing Asian markets to a great extent for its products. Al Karaana‟s CEO designate Stijn van Els said that the estimated $6.5bn project, which is now in the middle of the FEED phase, will embark on the next stage of engineering, procurement & construction (EPC) and is considering a mix of conventional bank loans and Islamic financing. In March 2013, Qatar had awarded the plant‟s front- end engineering & design (FEED) contract to Fluor. The project is slated for completion by 2018. Upon commissioning, the project is expected to contribute an additional 25% to Qatar‟s petrochemicals production capacity. Els said that the plant‟s total production capacity would be 2mn tons per year of petrochemicals, including 1.5mn tons of mono ethylene glycol, 300,000 tons of linear alpha olefin and 250,000 tons of oxo alcohol. (Gulf-Times.com)  Qatar to launch $65bn worth projects – The Administrative Control and Transparency Authority‟s President HE Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah announced that Qatar is set to launch development projects worth around $65bn soon. Of this, $30bn ventures are high-profile projects. Al Attiyah said that Qatar is set to launch large number of mega projects to realize the Qatar National Vision 2030, as well as other infrastructure projects associated with hosting the FIFA 2022 event. These projects vary from stadiums, railway network, roads, highways, bridges, intersections, water and electricity, hotels and urban development. (Peninsula Qatar) Market & Corporate News  MPHC posts QR609.6mn net profit from May 29, 2013 to December 31, 2013 – Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company (MPHC) reported a net profit of QR609.6mn for the period May 29, 2013 to December 31, 2013. On a separate note, the company announced the financial highlights of the last four months of 2013 (more relevant to shareholders). According to which MPHC registered a net profit of ~QR0.6bn for the four- month period ended December 31, 2013, and the Board of Directors proposed a cash dividend of ~QR0.4bn, or QR0.35 per share. This proposed dividend is equivalent to 72.1% of net profit. The Board also recommended that the shareholders as of the close of trading on the last trading day before the group‟s first post-IPO annual general assembly meeting will be entitled to receive a dividend relating to the four-month period ended December 31, 2013 despite the fact that MPHC was only listed on February 26, 2014. (MPHC Press Release, MPHC Financial Statements)
  3. 3. Page 3 of 5 Qatar Exchange Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Decliners Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) 12.9% 10.3% 8.5% 8.0% 6.9% 0.0% 4.5% 9.0% 13.5% Zad Holding Islamic Holding Group Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution Widam Food Co. Qatari Investors Group -8.4% -7.7% -4.6% -3.0% -3.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) Commercial Bank of Qatar QNB Group Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 476.3 394.9 350.2 327.3 179.2 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 Barwa Real Estate Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Qatari Investors Group QNB Group Industries Qatar 13.2 10.6 9.1 6.4 3.6 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Barwa Real Estate Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Mazaya Qatar Qatari Investors Group Masraf Al Rayan 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Buy Sell 47.46% 49.24% 17.66% 15.84% 16.62% 15.33% 18.26% 19.59% Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions 2,135 1,143 2,133 1,145 1 (1) (500) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Qatari Non-Qatari Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
  4. 4. Page 4 of 5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The QE Index ended the volatile week on a slightly positive note and snapped its three-week losing streak. The index attempted to halt its recent downmove and closed last week on a predominantly flattish note. The index after Sunday‟s decline witnessed a short-rally on Monday & Tuesday and managed to climb above the 11,400.0 psychological level. However, the rally was short-lived as the index reversed in the remaining two trading sessions. Meanwhile, the index has strong support near the 11,300.0 level, which is also in proximity to the 55-day moving average (currently at 11,307.30). We believe if the index can stay above 11,300.0 and attempt a rebound above the 11,400.0-11,480.0 levels, it may set the stage for a further higher move toward the 11,500.0-11,600.0 levels. However, if the index fails to cling onto to its support of the 55-day moving average and the 11,300.0 level it may result in bearish implications and may drift lower to test the next important support near the 11,170.0 level. Further, the RSI is stalling, while the MACD continues to grow more bearish. Thus, we expect the volatility to continue. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The „body‟ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the „shadow‟. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
  5. 5. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services SPC Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025, Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 5 of 5 Source: Bloomberg Company Name Price (Mar 20) % Change 5- Day % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 177.00 (3.01) 2.91 123,852 13.1 2.3 4.0 Qatar Islamic Bank 72.90 (0.82) 5.65 17,226 12.9 1.5 5.5 Commercial Bank of Qatar 60.00 (4.64) 1.69 17,816 11.1 1.1 2.8 Doha Bank 58.40 1.92 0.34 15,089 10.1 1.3 7.7 Al Ahli Bank 50.40 2.86 19.13 8,326 15.8 2.3 N/A Qatar International Islamic Bank 71.60 0.14 16.05 10,838 14.4 2.0 5.2 Masraf Al Rayan 38.50 0.79 23.00 28,875 17.0 2.7 3.9 Al Khaliji Bank 20.94 0.96 4.75 7,538 13.7 1.3 4.8 National Leasing 28.10 (0.18) (6.80) 1,390 15.9 1.1 5.3 Dlala Holding 22.86 1.83 3.44 507 N/M 2.3 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 12.40 0.40 (0.96) 391 19.7 1.2 4.0 Islamic Holding Group 61.90 10.34 34.57 248 27.4 4.2 2.7 Banking and Financial Services 232,096 Zad Holding 76.00 12.93 9.35 994 10.1 0.8 5.3 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 13.60 0.74 (1.81) 157 N/M 0.8 N/A Salam International Investment 12.06 (0.66) (7.30) 1,379 12.1 0.8 8.3 Medicare Group 65.00 4.50 23.81 1,829 29.8 2.4 2.8 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 43.95 8.52 9.60 251 33.6 1.8 4.6 Qatar Fuel 248.00 3.33 13.48 20,946 17.2 3.3 3.1 Qatar Meat and Livestock 45.50 7.95 (11.99) 819 14.9 3.3 8.8 Al Meera Consumer Goods 161.40 (0.31) 21.08 3,228 15.7 2.4 5.0 Consumer Goods and Services 29,603 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 43.05 1.06 2.09 2,046 10.1 1.5 5.8 Qatar National Cement 119.50 0.42 0.42 5,868 13.5 2.3 5.0 Industries Qatar 178.90 2.11 5.92 108,235 13.5 3.2 6.1 Qatari Investors Group 55.60 6.92 27.23 6,913 31.3 3.2 1.3 Qatar Electricity and Water 171.00 2.09 3.41 18,810 13.6 3.1 4.0 Mannai Corp. 105.10 2.84 16.91 4,795 10.8 2.2 4.5 Aamal 14.35 0.35 (4.33) 8,610 17.1 1.2 N/A Gulf International Services 79.00 5.61 61.89 14,681 21.7 4.8 2.0 Mesaieed Petrochem. Holding Co. 35.00 (8.38) N/A 43,971 N/A N/A N/A Industrials 213,927 Qatar Insurance 64.90 3.84 21.99 10,419 12.8 2.0 3.1 Doha Insurance 22.60 (1.74) (9.60) 582 8.7 1.1 8.8 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 40.00 6.19 0.21 2,767 1.3 0.6 3.1 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 42.20 (2.99) 15.62 721 10.9 1.2 2.0 Qatar Islamic Insurance 62.50 4.17 7.94 938 14.7 3.4 6.0 Insurance 15,426 United Development 21.85 (1.00) (3.36) 7,368 22.8 0.7 4.6 Barwa Real Estate 35.30 (1.40) 18.46 13,736 17.5 1.0 4.2 Ezdan Real Estate 15.95 (1.54) (6.18) 42,307 N/M 1.5 0.8 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 12.62 1.28 12.88 1,262 19.1 1.2 4.8 Real Estate 64,674 Qatar Telecom 139.80 2.42 1.90 44,781 17.4 1.8 3.6 Vodafone Qatar 12.20 0.00 13.91 10,314 N/M 1.7 N/A Telecoms 55,095 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 93.00 0.22 12.05 10,651 11.2 0.8 4.0 Gulf Warehousing 42.10 2.68 1.45 2,002 19.7 2.5 3.6 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 19.76 (7.66) (2.42) 11,066 15.0 2.5 5.6 Transportation 23,719 Qatar Exchange 634,540

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