Research Proposal and Policy Engagement on Climate Resilient and Nutritious Crops in Nigeria
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Research Proposal and Policy Engagement on Climate Resilient and Nutritious Crops in Nigeria
- 1. Research Proposal and Policy Engagement on Climate Resilient and Nutritious Crops in Nigeria Dr. Kyle Frankel Davis and Dr. Olawale Emmanuel Olayide 19 January 2018, Centre for Sustainable Development, University of Ibadan, Nigeria
- 2. Food Supply & Nutrition Environmental Impacts Farmer Livelihoods Climate Resilience The global food system must…
- 3. More frequent harvests Taking current approaches a step further... Mueller et al. 2012 Nature Ray & Foley 2013 ERL Increasing yields
- 4. ...by thinking holistically Davis et al., 2017, Nature Geosci.
- 5. Can humanity reduce water use while preserving nutrient supply and farmers’ incomes?
- 6. 8.0 109 kcal Increase in calories 825 million more people fed Davis et al., 2017, Nature Geosci.
- 7. ...by thinking holistically Davis et al., 2017, Nature Geosci.
- 8. 290 Mm3 H2O Water savings from replacement Feed +51% Protein +19% Calories +10% Green water -14% Blue water -12% ...and potential for large water savings Davis et al., 2017, Nature Geosci.
- 9. Unsustainable water use in agricultural baskets Davis et al., In revision 0 1 0.5 2 >2Ratio of water demand to availability 0 17.3 Current calorie production (1012 kcal)
- 10. 0 100 200 300 400 1983 1987 1993 1999 2004 2009 2011 Iron(mg/30days/cap) 0 50 100 150 200 250 1966 2009 Mtonnesproduction Wheat Shift to rice and wheat has depleted nutrient supply Davis et al., In revision; DeFries et al., In review RiceMaize Sorghu m Pearl millet Finger millet
- 11. How might water demand and nutrient supply change under scenarios of alternative cereal production?
- 12. Scenarios of alternative cereals Davis et al., In revision No replac e Maize Sorghu m Pearl millet Finger millet No rice cultivation Lowest water footprint
- 13. Benefits for reducing water scarcity Davis et al., In revision 0 4. 8 Water savings from replacement (km3 H2O) Lowest water footprint
- 14. 0 5 10 15 20 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Water Calories Protein Iron Zinc 0 5 10 15 20 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Water Calories Protein Iron Zinc 0 5 10 15 20 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Water Calories Protein Iron Zinc Water use and nutrient supply of cereals Davis et al., In revision Green (R) Green (I) Blue (I) Current km3H2Oyr-1|1012 kcal 106tonnesprotein |103tonnes iron/zinc
- 15. Large potential benefits and minimal tradeoffs Davis et al., In revision 0 5 10 15 20 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Water Calories Protein Iron Zinc 0 5 10 15 20 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Water Calories Protein Iron Zinc 0 5 10 15 20 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Water Calories Protein Iron Zinc Green (R) Green (I) Blue (I) Current Lowest footprint km3H2Oyr-1|1012 kcal 106tonnesprotein |103tonnes iron/zinc
- 16. -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 Rice Sorghum PearlMillet Maize FingerMillet Changeinyield(tonneperha) Incorporating other dimensions 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Finger… Maize Pearl… Sorghum Rice Wheat kgCO2-eqkg-1 non-CO2 Irrig. Pumping • Developing analyses: Cost (production, transport, storage, markets); consumer choice GHG footprint Climate sensitivity
- 17. Multidimensional perspective to inform policy in Nigeria • Possibility to save water AND increase food supply • For India, increasing alternative cereals can have important nutritional and environmental benefits • But we need more information to identify what is best for Nigeria • Leveraging existing policies is key • Thinking multidimensionally minimizes the risk of
- 18. Policy Engagements in Nigeria • Do we need policy makers and researchers in promoting agricultural transformation in Nigeria? • How we are engaging policy makers and researchers
- 19. What do your opinion about this?
- 20. Visit to Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
- 21. Visit to National Bureau of Statistics
- 22. Visit to Federal Ministry of Environment (Department of Climate Change)
- 23. Visit to United Nations Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO)
- 24. Visit to International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
- 25. Initial Outcomes of the Policy Engagements Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) Research Concept Note
- 26. Thank you Kyle Davis kd2620@columbia.edu Olawale Olayide oe.olayide@ui.edu.ng nbxcvkc
Editor's Notes
- Agriculture is one of the most important ways by which humans and the environment interact. In the coming decades, the global food system will need to increase food production, enhance rural incomes and climate resilience, and minimize environmental impacts.
- And potential solutions at meeting future demand include increasing crop yields and harvesting frequencies on currently cultivated lands, but these will likely entail substantial increases in demand for natural resources. So I performed a crop redistribution based on water use efficiency to examine to what extent it is possible to minimize water use and increase nutrient production within currently cultivated lands. And in doing so I found that there is a potential for large water savings as well as increases in calorie and protein production and feed supply. This shows that there are many places where crop production is inefficient in terms of water use and nutrient supply and suggests that factors such as crop subsidies have led to these distortions. And as you can see, India in particular is a place where large improvements in water use are possible.
- And these inefficiencies have in large part been driven by the country’s increasing reliance on rice and wheat. And you can see that the production of rice and wheat have increased substantially, while the other cereals grown in India have taken a back seat. And this has also led to the decreased availability of key nutrient’s for the Indian population. And this trend has likely been influenced by a national Public Distribution System, where the government buys rice and wheat from farmers at a minimum guaranteed price and makes that rice and wheat available to low-income households. So with this in mind, its conceivable that by including some of these alternative cereals in the same Public Distribution System, it would be possible for the country to reverse these trends. So now I am collaborating with experts in the Indian School of Business to examine the question:
- To do so, I considered several rice replacement scenarios. In the first, I replaced rice in each district with the crop with the lowest water footprint. In the second, rice was replaced by the most produced alternative crop, as long as the water footprint of that crop was lower than rice. And in the third, with the most consumed. And you can see that for the first and second scenarios, maize is the dominant replacing crop.
- So then I summarized these results at the national level.
- Go through fairly quickly