2. 12 TRENDS FOR 2012
⢠We have been producing trends for clients for the past few years
⢠Nothing changes on New Yearâs Day; all of these trends are already happening, but
will grow significantly over the next 12 months, having a greater impact than in the
previous twelve
⢠We highlight what we think will happen next year, with implications for brands, rooted
in what we have observed this year
3. 12 TRENDS FOR 2012
1. Mobile Commerce
2. Mobile Payments
3. Mobile + TV
4. Connected TV
5. Mobile in China, India & Africa
6. Mobile's Threat to Other Services
7. Ecosystems & Walled Gardens
8. Real Time Bidding & Automation
9. Education Enabled
10.Hijacks & Guerrilla Marketing
11.'eBay' for Services
12.Simplicity
4. 1 - MOBILE COMMERCE
⢠As more people have more advanced phones they are more willing to use
them to buy things, rather than wait to use a computer
⢠Smartphones outsold PCs in the final quarter of 2010, and quarterly
shipments have seen double-digit year on year growth since that
⢠Current levels of smartphone penetration are above 33% for the big in in
Europe & the US, and above 50% for several demographic groups in each
market
5. ⢠Lots of data shows that people are shopping via their mobile more and
more:
⢠10% of visits to eCommerce sites in the UK come from smartphones1
⢠In the US two thirds of smartphone owners used their phones to engage in
shopping activity (inc price comparison and product search) in Sept 20112
⢠In Australia, a quarter of Christmas shopping-related searches in 2011
come from mobile devices3
⢠Local transactions through Kenyaâs mobile money service M-Pesa now
exceed Western Unionâs global transactions4
⢠Sources: 1 â IAB UK, 2 â comScore, 3 â Google, 4 - IMF
6. ⢠In response, more companies are unveiling mobile sites and apps
⢠Many high street retailers, and online merchants now offer both mobile
optimised sites and apps
⢠Asos launched a mobile app after seeing 800% growth in sales from its
mobile site
⢠More and more brands are using QR codes to direct people from press and
outdoor ads or even virtual pop-up stores to mobile sites and apps, to make
the process easier
⢠Charities are using mobile more, for example Toys âRâ Us lets you donate a
gift from a window display via QR codes
⢠Easyjet has just introduced a Speedy Booking app, to take advantage of the
new willingness to book through mobile
7. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
⢠Brands need to ensure that their operations are optimised for people using
mobile throughout the purchase process
⢠This includes mobile search (organic and paid), mobile apps (not just for the
iPhone, but also Android, Windows and tablets), and ensuring that sites
work well with mobile
⢠Any links for mobile should point to a mobile site, and any links online
should recognise when a visitor is using a mobile device and automatically
redirect for the best experience
8. MOBILE PAYMENTS
⢠Mobiles have joined keys and wallets as items that people always carry with
them â and are now starting to be used as wallets
⢠Mobiles have been used for small in-store payments in Asia since the early
2000s, and this is spreading around the world
⢠New technologies like Square and Google Wallet have emerged, and existing
technologies like Paypal are adapting to allow payments
9. ⢠Square started trading in 2010, allowing merchants to use a smartphone
add-on to process credit card payments
⢠It is now processing over $8m per day, has over a million merchants, and
says that 70% of its merchants did not previously accept card payments
⢠Near Field Communications (NFC) is a technology that allows mobile
owners to âtap inâ to make a payment, similar to using a transit system card
or door entry system
⢠Google Wallet, launched in May 2011, uses NFC to allow people to pay for
goods in the US
⢠There are currently over 250,000 terminals to accept payment through NFC
in the US
⢠Paypal is also embracing NFC, and even lets people make payments to each
other by âtappingâ their phones
10. ⢠In 2012 we expect both Square and Google Wallet to expand outside the US
⢠Richard Branson is now an investor in Square, and has also given Virgin
Money a physical presence in the UK with the purchase of Northern Rock
⢠Financial institutions like NFC as a means of payment because people are
much more attached to their phones than their credit cards, and so notice
more quickly when they are missing
⢠The number of NFC phones is rising fast, with Samsung, Nokia, Blackberry,
HTC, Motorola and LG all now selling devices
⢠There may be issues around different standards (Google Wallet only works
for users of one mobile network, for example) but mobile payments will
become more widespread
11. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
⢠Brands need to be aware of the new retail environment
⢠Mobile payment is quicker and in many cases more convenient
⢠Can you make special low-price editions to sit near tills for impulse buy?
⢠Can you equip store staff with readers, to make purchase easier?
⢠Can you have wandering sales staff at events, taking payment?
⢠If NFC becomes popular, could you use it for anything else, for example
giving more information in store, or allowing access to events?
12. MOBILE + TV
⢠People are increasingly using other media while they watch TV
⢠The internet, and especially the mobile internet, is now providing a commentary track
to popular TV shows
⢠Over 50% of X Factor viewers in the UK used Facebook while they were watching1
⢠80% of American mobile internet users use the internet while they are watching TV;
36% say they look up information relating to ads that they see2
⢠A contestant on Dragonâs Den in the UK received over a million visits to her site while
the programme she appeared on was on air
⢠An average episode of the X Factor in the US receives 94,000 comments in social
media3
⢠Sources: 1 â Carat, 2 â Razorfish & Yahoo, 3 â Bluefin
13. ⢠A mobile app Get Glue lets people âcheckinâ to show what TV programmes they are
watching
⢠Since mid-2010 it has grown to over 15m users, and some shows in the US get over
50,000 checkins while they are on
⢠Programmers are taking notice of the data. In November it was announced that the
three ânew for Fallâ shows in the US with the highest number of GetGlue checkins
were all recommissioned
⢠Another app, Zeebox, lets you see what programmes your friends are watching and
discussing, or what programmes are being discussed most
⢠This data could change viewing habits or be another tool to assess the popularity of
programming
⢠Finally, itâs probably that 2012 will see the first events that mass audiences will watch
through mobile â for example The Olympics
14. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
⢠Be aware that people watching your ads or your sponsorships on TV may be actively
using the internet
⢠Make it easy for them to find more information â buy keywords relating to advertising
content so that when people search they will find your official pages
⢠Use social media around what the brand is doing on TV â engage in conversations,
and make sure that there are people online to field queries or amplify good
comments made in social media
15. MOBILE IN CHINA, INDIA &
AFRICA
⢠As transformative as mobile will be in the West, thatâs nothing to the impact it will
have in other parts of the world, notably China, India & Africa
⢠In countries where many people cannot afford a PC, the mobile becomes the main
point of internet access
⢠For example in the UK & US approximately 25% of mobile internet users rarely or
never use a desktop â but itâs over 50% in Africa, and nearly 60% in India1
⢠Meanwhile smartphone shipments in China are now higher than those for the US2 â
and there are more than 110m 3G subscriptions3
⢠Mobile is likely to play a crucial role in its digital future
⢠Sources: 1 â On Device Research, 2 â Strategy Analytics, 3 â Marbridge Consulting
16. ⢠China is likely to become far more mobile as time goes on, as over ž of all phone
subscriptions are mobile1
⢠These users are now upgrading to smartphones; In 2011 over 340 different
smartphone models were sold in China, 80% running Android2
⢠& itâs not just for entertainment â over 50% of mobile web users use mobile banking3
⢠Smartphones are much less popular in India, but sport helps us see how popular the
mobile web is. During the 2011 Cricket World Cup Final, 45% of the visits to the
most popular cricket site came from mobile4
⢠Mobile payments are also important in India â Nokiaâs Mobile Money is being rolled
out by the Union Bank of India
⢠Similarly, in Kenya 99% of all internet access is through mobile, but itâs not all
smartphones â a lot still comes through GPRS
⢠Mobile is many peopleâs experience of the internet in these areas
⢠Sources: 1, 2 & 3 â Marbridge Consulting, 4 â ContentSutra, 5 â Communication Commission of Kenya
17. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
⢠Put mobile at the forefront of your strategies in these areas
⢠Make sure that the mobile technology that you use is appropriate for the local users
⢠Include mobile payment â many people do not have bank accounts, but can pay
through mobile systems like M-Pesa and Nokia Mobile Money
18. MOBILEâS THREAT TO OTHER
SERVICES
⢠There are signs that some of the first generation services and products are under
threat as people move to more sophisticated, or cheaper services
⢠Handheld gaming devices like the Nintendo DS are losing share to the convenience
of mobile handsets with games like Angry Birds
⢠Microsoftâs Internet Explorer now has less than 50% of all browsers for the first time
since its launch, partly as a result of the rise of mobile browsing
⢠iPods sales are falling â in the most recent quarter Apple sold more iPads & iPhones
than iPods
⢠Digital camera sales are falling. As the cameras on smartphones get better, people
are buying fewer separate cameras
⢠SMS may also soon be under threat â many young people are now moving to cheaper
services like the free messaging of Blackberry Messenger (BBM) or apps like
WhatsApp that allow free messaging across different smartphone platforms
19. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
⢠This should serve as a wake up call that the world moves on, and things that seem
unassailable one year may be struggling the next
⢠Itâs also an indication of how much mobile, and specifically smartphones are taking
over, and changing how people use pre-smartphone devices
⢠Brands need to look at their products & services and examine how many are under
threat from mobile
⢠Unless you offer a brilliant mobile experience you could be under threat a competitor
who is
20. CONNECTED TV
⢠TVs are fast becoming connected devices, able to connect to the internet, select
programming, run apps, and show interactive advertising
⢠Many TVs on sale now are designed to be connected to the internet through ethernet
input and wifi
⢠In addition new set-top boxes like GoogleTV and Boxee, and games consoles like
Xbox also allow internet access through the TV
21. ⢠An estimated 50m internet-enabled TVs will be sold by manufacturers like Philips,
Sony, Samsung and LG in 2011
⢠Apple is also thought to be working on a TV
⢠Like smartphones, internet-connected TVs have operating systems, capable of
running apps and programmes
⢠The hardware manufacturers have app stores allowing you to download apps from
media owners, games, and even social media apps like Facebook and Twitter to run
on TVs
⢠Social media apps will allow people to comment on what they are viewing within the
TV interface, and see what others are saying
⢠This will mean that the âMobile + TVâ activity mentioned earlier will also be taking
place within the TV
⢠There is also the danger that this will create new, restrictive ecosystems â see the
next trend
22. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
⢠Think about how your brand would fit into TV through apps & extra content
⢠This includes games and entertainment, and also making sure that you are visible in
social media & search when your brand is likely to be on TV
⢠New opportunities within these environments include ads within the electronic
programme guide (EPG), and pre-rolls in videos
23. ECOSYSTEMS AND WALLED
GARDENS
⢠A few years ago people predicted the end of walled gardens â sites like AOL where
you were encouraged to stay within the safe confines of the site for all your content,
rather than to venture into the world wide web
⢠The idea of the walled garden has practically gone, but itâs being replaced by the
idea of the ecosystem, both on the web and particularly in mobile
⢠For example, changes at Facebook brought about by the frictionless sharing of apps
like Spotify and news sites, mean that you can see news and music consumed by your
friends from within the network; it wants you to stay within Facebook rather than
leave to go elsewhere
⢠Similarly, companies like Apple and Amazon have devices that give you access to a
prescribed set of retail outlets for content â other content is either discouraged or
impossible to use
24. ⢠Facebook has added features over the past few years to encompass the main
activities that people do online, from email, to news, to videos, to online shopping
⢠Facebook doesnât lock you into the site, but through its platform on other sites (for
example the Like button), or comments, it is never far from members wherever they
are online
⢠Facebook estimates that every month 500m people use an external app on Facebook
or experience the Facebook app on other sites
⢠One example of this is an integration with Ticketmaster that lets people see which
other friends have booked the same event â and then pick seats near to them
25. ⢠With mobile a handset is no longer just a handset. It needs an ecosystem of content
and applications
⢠Phones and other devices are not just sold on their capabilities, but on what they will
be able to do in the future
⢠Apple is in a powerful position because devices have access to a huge number of
apps and games, in addition to lots of music and other content through iTunes
⢠This is the strategy that Amazon is hoping to emulate through itâs new Kindle Fire
tablet. It gives (paid) access to the digital content available from Amazon, and uses
Googleâs Android operating system
⢠All of this will make it increasingly hard to consumers to choose which device to buy;
itâs not just about the device, but the content you can put on it
26. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
⢠Be aware of the different ecosystems, and make sure that you are accessible by
them, but not exclusively
⢠For example, produce apps for all of the main platforms, but also be aware which
your users are most likely to have access to
⢠Similarly use the âLikeâ buttons, but not the exclusion of other social buttons (like
âTweet Thisâ or +1)
27. REAL TIME BIDDING &
AUTOMATION
⢠The buying and selling of advertising will become more automated
⢠In digital media supply outstrips demand, so traditional pricing models are not
appropriate for many campaigns, bar the most sought-after content
⢠Data volunteered and collected from web users can be used to target advertising
⢠Audience behavioural targeting will become the norm, rather than contextual
advertising, or traditional demographic targeting
⢠Technology can automate the buying and selling process, with inventory being
aggregated in âexchangesâ on the sell side, and buyers bidding for audiences into
those exchanges via âDSP â Demand Side Platformâ technology on the buy side
⢠Buyers plug into the exchanges to select what they want based on a number of
criteria like demographics, content type, location, and the history of other sites
visited
⢠Advertising through exchanges can be more effective; some studies show what there
is a higher ad visibility compared to standard network buys
⢠This now exists for display, video and mobile
28. ⢠At the same time more media is being traded through the Google and Facebookâs
advertising platforms, based on selecting and bidding for inventory
⢠Twitter is also launching its own DIY platform to agencies to use to place ads on the
site
29. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
⢠Test, and learn from new technologies!
⢠Identify which campaigns need to be bought manually, on premium sites, and which
could benefit from the efficiencies of real time bidding
⢠Investigate the options offered by Facebook and Twitter as ways of targeting people
based on non-traditional metrics
30. EDUCATION
⢠Education is vital, but is becoming more expensive due to cuts in public services
across the world
⢠At the same time technology is emerging that would help students and educators
⢠The big changes in society brought about by digital media and the ease of
communication havenât yet hit education, but they will do soon
31. ⢠Video is a great way of teaching anything from cookery to craft but itâs also great for
more formal education
⢠The Khan Academy is a video site that has over 2,700 videos explaining everything
from basic arithmetic to physics and finance
⢠All videos are free to watch, and most are shorter than 10 minutes
⢠Many universities put their lectures online on video sites, or as podcasts
⢠YouTube is launching an education service, giving schools access to over 450,000
educational videos (with no comments allowed)
32. ⢠Google Hangouts let people have video conference calls of with up to 10 people
within Google Plus
⢠Performers like Will.i.am use them to talk to fans; but other musicians use them to
give lessons
⢠Hangouts could be a very useful tool for holding virtual seminars on subjects
33. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
⢠There have been lots of initiatives where brands have got involved with schools in
areas of sport, nutrition and more, but why not help enable a new era in education?
⢠We may be entering a new, more DIY age, and there could be a place for brands to
help enable communication and resources, for example sponsor physics or maths
hangouts?
34. HIJACKS AND GUERRILLA
MARKETING
⢠Digital media, and particularly social media have helped information to spread more
quickly
⢠Brands need to be able to act and respond to events quickly, and this will lead to
more hijacks and guerrilla marketing
⢠Brands can act quickly and do things in the short term, often at the expense of
competitors
35. ⢠Two recent examples:
⢠Samsung hijacked the launch of the iPhone 4S in Sydney by opening a store a few
doors away selling the new Galaxy S for $2
⢠Only 10 were sold at this price each day, but this ensured a queue for Samsung
near to the Apple store
⢠Samsung also hijacked the âiPhoneâ with their most recent ad, mocking Apple fans
in their queue
⢠âI canât have a Samsung â Iâm creativeâ
⢠âDude â youâre a baristaâ
36. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
⢠Brands need to be in a position to act on events whether they are done by
competitors or happen in the wider consciousness
⢠2012 has lots of big events including the Olympics, Euro2012, and the US Election
⢠All are perfect for opportunist marketing, and produce incidents that are likely to be
seen by millions very quickly, and could be used for unofficial and irreverent
marketing
⢠Beyond this, what are your competitorsâ marketing calendars?
⢠Also, be aware that what you are doing may get hijacked â how can you protect
yourself?
37. âEBAYâ FOR SERVICES
⢠More and more people are turning to the internet to find people as well as things
⢠As a result the eBay auction model is being adapted and localised to allow people to
find the services that they want
⢠Itâs also helping employment become more flexible
⢠In the UK the number of people making a living from online selling has doubled in
the past year1; soon more people around the world are likely to be selling their
services online as well as goods
⢠Source: 1 â Collect+
38. ⢠The three most interesting companies are Fiverr, Zaarly and Roamler
⢠Fiverr allows people to sell their services â what they would do for $5 â ranging from
design and art to writing, to tourist advice
⢠Zaarly lets you find local people willing to help you out, for example decorators,
removals people, and so on, by posting briefs and then letting people bid on the work
⢠Roamler is a Dutch service that lets people sign up (with their location) to say that
theyâre available for work. Prospective employers issue requests for staff; anyone
local can apply
39. ⢠All three services provide flexible ways of working for both employers and employees
⢠Zaarly claims to have over 100,000 users across the US and has raised over $15m in
funding
⢠Examples of tasks bought include:
⢠A critique of DJing skills
⢠Translation
⢠A private yoga lesson
⢠Rescuing lost keys from a drain
⢠Services like this seem like the natural extension of local marketplaces
40. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
⢠Get involved!
⢠Think about what you could buy, and what you could sell
⢠Major brands are now very active users of eBay to sell goods, especially excess supply
⢠Could you use any of these services to sell excess capacity, or even recruit short term
staff?
41. SIMPLICITY
⢠People now navigate the web using a wide range of devices, operating systems and
browsers
⢠Itâs increasingly important for sites and applications to work as simply as possible,
and be usable on a range of screen sizes
⢠Sites donât need to be too polished, if that is at the expense of speed and usability
Users want sites to look professional, but often they donât need too many features,
they just need to features to work on multiple platforms
42. ⢠Similarly, donât over-complicate what users need to do to respond
⢠Pepsi ran a competition with the X Factor in the US that just required users to email
a photo from their phone â a capability that is built into every smartphone
⢠There was no app to download, nothing to scan
⢠Converse ran a location-based treasure hunt competition in the UK that simply
showed pictures of the Converse logo on objects like phone boxes. Locals were able
to identify the places and find the shoes. No checkin was needed
⢠& some restaurants now run their sites as blogs â the only content is a daily upload of
a photo of the menu
43. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
⢠Are your sites and online presences as simple and straightforward as they could be?
⢠Are they accessible from all devices, in all operating systems?
⢠Are any campaign metrics easy enough to encourage widespread participation?