Carat's 10 trends for 2020

DECEMBER 2019
T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 - C A R A T
TEN TRENDS
FOR 2020
THE YEAR OF ALL-
CONQUERING
ECOSYSTEMS

T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
Try to name an industry that is not threatened by tech disruption.
Our 2020 vision for consumer, media and technology trends is
centred in our belief that the marketplace is increasingly
converging around the global tech-giant ecosystems.
Many of the trends that we will comment upon are the ripple
effects of the diversification of these platforms away from their
original specialism.
The more lines of business the big platforms develop the more
complex they become – and the further the ripple effects travel
into the economy and society.
Our driving trend for 2020 is entitled ‘Colliding Ecosystems’. It
reflects the points made above about the expansion of and
ultimately heightened competition between the big tech-
platforms.
TRENDS FOR 2020
2

1. Colliding Ecosystems
2. From Platforms to Producers
3. What’s Yours is Mine
4. Invisible Money
5. Life is Just a (Video) Game
6. Play it Your Way
TEN TRENDS
3
Ecosystem Economics
The Gamification of Everything
Hide & Seek with Audiences
7. Cookie Cutters
8. Dark(er) Social
9. Post-Production Advertising
10. The Age of Addressable TV

The leading technology ecosystems are growing stronger and
broadening their scope.
It used to feel like the tech-giants were on different train
tracks, running side by side, but never meeting. Now they are
more like dodgems, always bumping into each other.
There is much more direct competition between them in
several areas, including video, gaming and retail.
COLLIDING ECOSYSTEMS
4T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /

YouTube used to be a synonym for online videos.
Now its parent company Google is facing tightening competition,
when Facebook, Apple and Amazon
are investing in video content. While the formats
are different, they are all competing for time spent.
Facebook has introduced a ‘Watch’ tab which more than 140m
people view daily. Video is also huge on Instagram, where 50% of
stories feature an element of video.
Amazon is ramping up its Prime video offering, and has started to
film its Lord of the Rings series, the world’s most expensive TV show.
Apple is also investing heavily in video with a $6bn content budget,
and its own AppleTV+ service.

Apple launched Arcade, its subscription gaming platform in
September 2019. Users pay $4.99 for access to as many games as
they want, with new games added regularly. The service is free
from ads.
Google Stadia gaming service launched in November 2019,
featuring games streamed online. There is a free level, but also a
paid tier, with higher resolution and more games.
Facebook is betting on VR games. In late 2019, it acquired Beat
Games –the game studio behind the world’s most popular VR
game Beat Saber. Gaming is turning into a big area for Facebook
with the creation of its social VR platform Horizon. It is a place for
Oculus users’ avatars to meet, hang out, and play games together.
Amazon owns Twitch, the most popular game streaming platform.
Twitch accounts for about 70% of live streams globally, but
Microsoft, Google and Facebook are coming after it with
competing streaming services.

Amazon has the world’s largest ecommerce site, selling millions of
products directly, through its marketplace, and now through
physical stores.
Facebook has started to sell through its social channels, both with
Instagram Checkout, but also with shoppable ads in both
platforms. It is also introducing tools for merchants to sell on
WhatsApp.
Google has also introduced shoppable ads, and is moving into
other areas, like allowing its users to order restaurant deliveries.
Apple’s role in retail is in providing payments. All of the four now
offer payments, but Apple Pay is the biggest, accepted in more
than a million locations, and a physical payment card has just
been introduced.

IMPLICATIONS
Brands will need to
spend more money with
the big tech ecosystems.
Not necessarily on
advertising, but using all
their capabilities.
According to Dentsu Aegis Network CMO Survey, 50% of
CMOs plan to increase direct spending with the likes of
Facebook, Google, Tencent and WeChat over the next two
to three years.
Partners will benefit from high reach, but suffer from silo-ed
data – hard to compare openly with other providers.
It may be best to go all in with one partner – or even to cut
one out, as Nike has just done by removing its items from
Amazon.

Platforms are using their data to create own-label content and
products, directly competing with the merchants that use their
platforms.
Netflix started creating its own original content in 2013 with House of
Cards, created and cast with insight into which genres, directors
and actors its viewers liked. It did not guarantee success, but it
helped.
FROM PLATFORMS TO PRODUCERS

Amazon has been selling its own label products since 2009, but has
recently increased its scope, moving from low cost basics to more
designed brands.
It now has over 80 own label brands, including Lark & Ro (women’s
wear), 206 Collective (shoes), A For Awesome (kids clothing), and
NuPro (tech accessories). They have created Tovess, their own
small batch gin.
Amazon has been accused of showing ads for its own brands in its
search results for competing brands.

Food delivery platform Deliveroo has reportedly started to
create their own food brands.
Deliveroo operates ‘dark kitchens’ – kitchens not attached to
a restaurant and for delivery only – in many areas to let
restaurant brands deliver in areas where they don’t have a
physical restaurant.
However it is now creating its own delivery-only brands for
these kitchens – based on the knowledge of what the local
customers like.
Airbnb is creating 200 luxury apartments in New York, over 8
floors of the Rockefeller Plaza.
Again, it has the advantage of knowing what travellers want
to find in a short-term let, based on 10 years of reviews and
ratings of properties on its own platform.

It is not only very specific platforms that are doing this. Facebook,
Apple and Google are also ‘cutting out the middleman’ and
introducing their own services based on what they can see
happening on their platforms.
Facebook has launched a dating feature in 20 markets, integrated
into both Facebook and Instagram, and leveraging people’s
existing networks.
Apple is taking features from popular apps in its app store, and
making them features of its phones, like MeMoji, a very similar idea
to Bitmoji.
Google is now one of the most popular places online for reviews,
after years of sending traffic to Yelp & TripAdvisor.

IMPLICATIONS
Have a direct route
to the audience
through your own
channels and sales
platform – don’t rely
on marketplaces.
Invest in your brand, emphasise your authenticity, your quality, your
heritage and your point of difference. If you just compete on price, then
you can’t compete.
When more people use smart speakers, they will only get one choice of
product, and if no brand is stated, the default is likely to be own label.
Form partnerships to create products exclusively for platforms under your
own brand. Both Tuft & Needle, and Bic do this, making mattresses and
razors respectively for Amazon.

A decade after the launch of Airbnb & Uber, the concept of
ownership is being re-invented through the rise of new
models for rental and resale.
Developing technology and changing attitudes towards
sharing economy are making sharing, borrowing, and
reselling models accessible at scale.
Both peer-to-peer and B2C services are emerging.
WHAT’S YOURS IS MINE

Rental is becoming an alternative to purchase in some
categories, notably apparel and accessories.
Instead of one-off rental (like tuxedos and ball gowns), new
models are based on subscription rental that lets customers
rent a set number of items each month.
There are lots of new offerings, for example Rent The Runway,
Parcel22, and Nuuly (from Urban Outfitters).
There are also peer-to-peer versions like Hurr and By Rotation,
where you rent directly from other members.
Rental is also moving into other categories with companies like
Ikea and Lego either trialling or discussing it.

Resale is also becoming a vital part of retail.
Delivery networks make it easier to collect good quality items,
and image recognition makes it easier to identify and list
them.
This makes it easier for customers to find really sought-after
vintage and pre-owned items, often cheaper than new ones.
Big stores like Macy’s are starting to sell pre-owned items
though partnerships with companies like ThredUp.
Growing environmental consciousness boosts the trend. Why
buy new when you can buy something nearly new that could
be better quality and not use up additional resources?

T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T / 17
IMPLICATIONS
The environment should be the big
winner from this trend – As new
models take off, resources will be
used more efficiently.
The ongoing rise of conscious consumerism means
that every brand will need to find ways to offer
exceptional customer experiences with less natural
resources.
Sharing economy is increasingly seen as part of “the
economy”. Create a shift to quality and durability,
not disposability.

Finance and payment are becoming more flexible, more
automatic and more invisible as they become more digital.
Apps like Uber and Lyft have made people used to the idea, that a
payment happens automatically in the background when the
service has been carried out.
Fin-tech unicorn Klarna is providing shoppers with more flexibility by
separating the payment from the purchase. Klarna lets shoppers
buy goods on ecommerce sites by just entering email address and
phone number. After 14 days customers can pay back Klarna – or
return the goods.
INVISIBLE MONEY

Challenger banks like Monzo, N26 and Starling operate without
branches, but with apps as their primary touchpoint.
Similarly, the world’s largest financial services firm is Alibaba’s Ant
Financial with over one billion clients – and without any
branch. Instead, these companies provide flexibility, automation.
Monzo ‘pays’ its customers the day before payday, if they get their
salary paid into their account.
Barclays lets users of its app block certain companies – for example
online gambling sites – to help control spending.
Apple is now adopting some of these features through its new
credit card. It also gives cashback on purchases from Apple itself,
and select partners including Uber and Walgreens.
INVISIBLE MONEY

Global currencies are coming. Mass market cryptocurrencies are
probably years away from acceptance, but in the meantime other,
more traditional ways of payment are available.
It is now possible for users of AliPay, the Alibaba payment app, to
shop with the app in western regions like the Nordics. It’s as if they
never left home.
Facebook is launching Facebook Pay, a way to pay across its four
main platforms. People can send money to merchants, friends or
good causes, regardless of currencies.
Banks are also starting to offer multi-currency accounts and cards,
so that people can save on exchange rates when they travel or do
business across national borders.
INVISIBLE MONEY

IMPLICATIONS
The shift to digital payments will have
most impact on businesses that rely
on cash sales, including impulse
purchases at the till.
More transactions will become separated from
the product or service, in the way that
subscriptions work automatically, or Uber and
AmazonGo take money with a simple
notification.
Banking and budgeting apps are becoming like
fitness apps, with visualisation of data, and
performance goals. This is leading to the
gamification of money and finance. Australian
bank Douugh even markets itself as ‘helping you
live financially healthier’.

Gaming is becoming a much bigger part of the entertainment
and media world, and its influence
is starting to spread into other areas.
Games have always been inspired by other cultures,
especially sport and movies, but as we enter the streaming
age, we see the inspiration moving the other way.
We see this influence in culture, particularly in sport and
music, and in offline leisure activities.
LIFE IS JUST A (VIDEO) GAME

Sport is competing for time and attention with eSports and gaming,
particularly among the young.
According to the Financial Times, the median age of golf fans is 64,
for English Premier League football it is 43 and for eSports it is 25.
Formula One and NBA are now shown live on Twitch. Coverage
includes streamers commentating, and a leader board of viewers
predictions for real-time results.
The look of video games is changing how sport is presented on TV,
and the influence of eSports tournaments is even changing sports
events themselves.
The Challenge Japan Skins golf tournament in October 2019 was a
game-style 4-player challenge, with different prize money for each
of the 18 holes.

Music is also being influenced by gaming. A track on a game
soundtrack can bring millions of new listeners.
The next step is artists and their shows being integrated into games.
Minecraft is already hosting electronic music festivals, and DJ
Marshmello played the biggest ever “live” concert in Fortnite in
2019.
Brands are now getting involved in gaming in similar ways to sport.
Nike and Puma make official kit for eSports teams. Adidas partners
with the streaming star Ninja. ABI has registered a trade mark for
‘The Official Beer of eSports.’
We are also seeing gaming move out of the home and become a
night out in its own right. The Void has a number of venues around
the world, and is developing immersive VR experiences with film
companies.

IMPLICATIONS
Gaming and eSports can be
seen as the new TV, the new
cinema, the new sport and the
new music. Any brands involved
in these areas should also be
involved in gaming.
Gaming and eSports are becoming more open to
brand involvement, as long as it fits with gaming
culture.
There is lots of scope for combining partnerships in
other media, for example sports or event sponsorship
with in-game partnerships.
Twitch is going to become more mainstream, hosting
content beyond gaming, for example music and
comedy that will also appeal to its audience.

Gaming is also influencing how stories are being told, with viewers
getting the chance to drive the action.
The idea is not new – witness the successful ’choose your own
adventure’ books from the 1980s – but the speed and connectivity
is now here to bring it to digital media without delays and buffering.
Netflix has been making interactive kids shows for a while, but in
December 2018 it released its most advanced effort, the Black
Mirror episode Bandersnatch, where viewers became players and
had to choose between different paths in the story.
Now Netflix is investigating making more shows interactive including
turning the most popular ones like Stranger Things into games.
PLAY IT YOUR WAY

Porsche created a game called Formula E Unlocked on Twitch,
which gave players the ability to control two actors with body
cams as they explored a Porsche facility and solved puzzles to
reveal the Formula E race car.
It launched in late August 2019, lasted for over three hours, and had
about 30,000 views at any time, and over 2m in total.
PLAY IT YOUR WAY

Eko is an Israeli / US start-up that creates short films that ask
you to make choices every few seconds.
So far it has done partnerships with BuzzFeed and Walmart
(also for recipes), and the videos are even shoppable – click
through at the end to buy the ingredients.
By involving the viewer in the action, interactive storytelling
brings more engagement for brands. As stories and games
merge more in the future, particularly with the opportunities in
VR, non-linear narratives will grow.
PLAY IT YOUR WAY

IMPLICATIONS
Interactive video will boost
creativity by giving brands new
ways to tell their stories.
This trend points to a more playful world, and a world
more appealing to people who play games.
Interactive videos are more expensive – Just as
Bandersnatch cost as much as a whole series of Black
Mirror episodes, producing interactive videos with
different paths will cost more than making linear films.
We may soon see smoother interactive storytelling
solutions that use AI to personalise content in the
background or based on users’ previous preferences.

Cookies – pieces of code placed on web browsers to track
devices – have been used in digital media for 25 years, but their
relevance is now in decline.
In many ways, cookies are useful. First-party cookies can tell a site
that you are a repeat visitor and save your preferences. Third-party
cookies – placed by ad tech – can stop you from seeing the same
ad over and over again.
However, concerns about privacy have led both Apple’s Safari
browser and Firefox to start blocking cookies or limiting both types.
Studies show that advertisers can now only place cookies on 60%
of browsers, down from 85% a year ago.
Figures correlate with iOS usage – in the US only 44% of browsers
accept cookies.
COOKIE CUTTERS

Where browsers do not accept cookies, it is hard for sites and
advertisers to identify devices, and profile them; for example, to
see what other websites they visit, and whether they have been
exposed to advertising.
It makes it impossible to re-target ads at people who have
visited your site before, or people who have already responded
to an ad, and are likely to react to another one.
Without cookies, it is also difficult to see the effectiveness of a
campaign, and optimise campaigns by moving ads from sites
that are not driving response to ones that are.
COOKIE CUTTERS

It is very likely that cookie acceptance will continue to fall, as more
browsers adopt strict policies, and legislators impose restrictions on
tracking technologies.
Publishers are likely to charge more for the audiences that they can
track.
Publishers are also likely to try to gather more data on their audiences
in other ways, for example, incentivising them to set up accounts, and
to accept cookies (similar to insisting that visitors turn off ad blockers).
Creating their own apps also becomes more tempting for publishers.
Apps still record data, for example unique device IDs.
Technology companies are trying to find alternatives to cookies, for
example extrapolating other data to predict audience characteristics.
COOKIE CUTTERS

IMPLICATIONS
33
Access to first-party user data is more
valuable than ever. Publishers will
increasingly incentivise users to sign
in, so that they can understand more
about their audience, and monetise
their visitors more effectively.
Brands and agencies need to balance this greater
online privacy with the need for better tracking, and
better attribution, for example, so that advertisers
don’t advertise to people who have already bought.
There will be more focus on creative, and more focus
on context to keep advertising working effectively.
There will be attempts to replace cookies with some
kind of Universal ID, partly driven by analysis of
audiences through AI – but this is unlikely to be
effective in the short term.
Brands should move to less web-based channels – for
example, in-app advertising, and new devices like
smart TV.

Social media is becoming more private, more focussed and
more local.
Social media users are choosing which content to share with
whom and on which platforms, leading to less being shared
openly in the timeline.
This trend has accelerated since Instagram introduced its ‘Close
Friends’ feature at the end of 2018, allowing people to choose
whether to share pictures with all followers, or just selected ones.
The feature got questionable publicity in 2019 when UK TV
personality Coleen Rooney used it to find out who’s leaking her
private posts to the press.
DARK(ER) SOCIAL

The popularity of private messaging and closed groups is
growing hand in hand with the mistrust over tracking issues.
Over 50% of people in the UK, US and Australia have the highest
privacy settings in their social media profiles, according to our
proprietary data,
When people are sharing less publicly, Facebook is putting more
focus onto its groups (essentially forums), that people need to
apply to join. Non members can’t see group content.
Several brands have created their own groups, for example
Peloton, whose group has over 200,000 members.
DARK(ER) SOCIAL

Creators are also able to monetise their work on a number of
platforms, creating a divide between what all fans see, and what
paying subscribers see.
Thingtesting is an Instagram account that tests and reviews new
products, often from direct to consumer brands. It has started
selling places on a ‘close friends’ list as an unofficial subscription,
so that people who pay can see exclusive content.
DARK(ER) SOCIAL

IMPLICATIONS
Brands with super-fans will benefit
most from this trend. These fans will
want a closer connection to the
brand and to other fans.
More private sharing brings more trust to the network -
whether it be in a messaging group, a close friends
network, or an interest group.
It will be harder for brands to get organic reach.
Having ‘close friends’ is another signal for social media
algorithms and another indication that consumers do
not prioritise status updates from brands.
Interest groups are about communication with
context. Does your brands have the right profile, trust
and authenticity to have its own group, or to be part
of a group?
If so, brands can try to create a group, or use brand
ambassadors as their representatives within
established relevant interest groups.

Advertising is currently seeing lots of innovation, as publishers
and content creators search for new ways to monetise their
assets.
New technologies are allowing digital advertising to be added to
content in post production.
Mirriad allows advertising to be put into TV shows after they have
been created, for example as posters on the wall, a can of drink
on a table, or a car parked in the street
Mirriad is currently available in the US, China, India, and parts of
Europe.
It cannot yet work programmatically – and so can’t be
addressable – but this feature will come.
POST-PRODUCTION ADVERTISING

Supponor is a new sports media whose augmented reality
technology is revolutionising perimeter advertising in sports.
They can replace traditional perimeter advertising in sports
broadcasts with virtual, digital content. Fans across the world
watching a sporting event see live TV feeds identical in every
way – but with pitch-side advertisements relevant to them.
Supponor recently signed a deal to provide virtual ads at Camp
Nou during FC Barcelona’s La Liga games.

BidStack places ads in video games as billboards within the
game.
It offers programmatic advertising in several sports games,
including football and racing. The presence of ads for real
brands makes the games feel more realistic!
The ads integrate into the game at the developer level, and then
appear whatever device the games are played on.
With more games played for free on streaming services, more will
try to monetise in this way.

IMPLICATIONS
Advertising in these new channels is
built in by the producers and
agencies, which makes it impossible
to block the advertising.
Beware; this also means that measurement is specific
to the platform and provided by the channel. This
makes it silo-ed and not directly comparable with
other channels
Where ads are placed into games there will be a
secondary audience of people watching the
gameplay on channels like Twitch

Addressable TV advertising – the ability to target TV audiences with
similar accuracy as digital advertising –
is now a reality, and its reach is expanding.
Penetration of Smart TVs is rising, and set to rise still further as Smart
TVs now account for over 70% of TV shipments globally.
Content platforms and technologies are vying to be the most
flexible and effective in targeting viewers on the biggest screens in
the home.
eMarketer estimates US connected TV advertising spend at $7bn
for 2019 (excluding ads bought in traditional placements).
Roku claims that only 3% of US TV ad budgets are spent on
connected TV, but connected TV is nearly 30% of viewing.
THE AGE OF ADDRESSABLE TV

While Netflix and Disney+ do not feature ads, more and more
platforms are letting people put ads into on-demand and catch-up
TV.
Samsung lets advertisers target households by their characteristics,
for example ‘gamers’.
YouTube now lets advertisers specifically target people watching
on Smart TVs, in the same way that you can target mobile or tablet
viewers separately, and has started to create TV-only formats, for
example masthead ads.
eMarketer estimates that 70% of US connected TV advertising is
either on YouTube, Hulu or Roku.

Sky TV has developed technology to put addressable advertising
into linear (‘live’) TV.
AdSmart allows advertisers to target households based on their
viewing choices, spending habits, lifestyle, and even if they have a
cat.
So far nearly 2,000 brands in the UK have advertised on AdSmart,
including over 75% of the UK’s top advertisers.
It has now been extended to other broadcast partners in the UK
and US – most notably to NBCUniversal, with their $11bn US ad
operation.

IMPLICATIONS
Rumours of TV’s demise are greatly
exaggerated. There is now more
potential to target audiences on the
biggest screen in the home.
Use the big canvas creatively – for example, high-quality
assets work well. Remember that video ad completion rate is
much higher on smart TV than on other devices. Focus on the
ending, not only the beginning of the spot.
New services can’t be tracked independently through 3rd
parties like BARB and Nielsen – advertisers will be reliant on
platform measurement.
The wealth of new subscription services may be
unsustainable and is likely to lead to more ad-funded VOD
content as people realise that they do not want to subscribe
to more than two or three different services.

ABOUT CARAT
46
Carat is a market-leading media agency
and RECMA’s #1 ranked global media
agency group for 113 of the past 142
reports. The business draws on over 10,000
experts globally to deliver diverse media
solutions for clients, operating across 190+
offices in 135+ countries. Key global clients
include General Motors, Diageo, Kellogg’s,
Mondelez, Philips, P&G, Coca-Cola and
Mastercard.
Read the full whitepaper
The year of all-conquering ecosystems – Carat
Trends 2020 on Carat.com.
CONTACT
Dan Calladine
Head of Media Futures
dan.calladine@carat.com

Appendix 1
47
Links & photo sources
Colliding Ecosystems
140m people view Watch videos daily
https://about.fb.com/news/2019/06/catching-up-with-facebook-watch/
Amazon is spending $1bn on Lord of The Rings
https://www.esquire.com/uk/latest-news/a21079989/amazons-billion-dollar-lord-of-
the-rings-will-span-five-seasons/
Apple’s TV content budget is $6bn
https://www.macrumors.com/2019/08/19/apple-tv-plus-6-billion-spent/
Apple Arcade details & costs
https://www.macworld.com/article/3385024/apple-arcade-faq-games-price-
compatibility.html
Facebook and VR gaming
https://thenextweb.com/facebook/2019/09/25/ready-player-what-facebook-
announces-a-new-vr-social-network/?mc_cid=0a3cbe2928&mc_eid=5602d2e24f
Twitch accounts for approximately 70% of live streams
https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/12/twitch-continues-to-dominate-live-streaming-
with-its-second-biggest-quarter-to-date/
Instagram Checkout – selling on Instagram
https://instagram-press.com/blog/2019/03/19/instagram-checkout/
Facebook’s shoppable ads
https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/facebook-tests-new-in-app-shopping-ads-
for-both-facebook-and-instagram/562550/
Google’s shoppable ads
https://www.searchenginejournal.com/google-introduces-shoppable-ads-on-google-
images/296551/
Apple Pay is accepted in millions of places around the world
https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/apple-pay/

Appendix 1
48
From Platforms to Producers
How Netflix used data to help create House of Cards
https://www.idginsiderpro.com/article/3207670/how-netflix-built-a-house-of-cards-
with-big-data.html
Examples of Amazon’s own label brands
https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-owns-these-brands-list-2018-7?r=US&IR=T
Amazon’s Tovess Gin
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/alcohol/amazon-makes-own-label-spirits-debut-with-
tovess-gin/598706.article
Amazon reportedly has tested putting it’s own brands higher up in search results
https://www.pymnts.com/news/ecommerce/2019/amazon-tweaks-search-algorithm-
to-elevate-products/
How Deliveroo is changing from a platform to an operator
https://www.preoday.com/blog/deliveroo-changing-from-platform-to-operator/
Airbnb is creating apartments to rent out in Manhattan
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-29/airbnb-to-offer-200-new-
luxury-suites-at-rockefeller-plaza?srnd=technology-vp
Facebook’s dating platform
https://about.fb.com/news/2019/09/facebook-dating/
Examples of Apple taking inspiration from apps in its app store
https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/5/17428598/ios-12-apps-features-third-party-
clones-bitmoji-houseparty
How Google is providing more of its own data in search results
https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/google-takes-its-next-step-in-online-travel-
planning-052019.html
The impact on TripAdvisor
https://feeditback.com/tripadvisor-usage-falls-over-past-year/
Amazon exclusives – Bic razors
https://www.modernretail.co/platforms/bic-launched-a-new-razor-brand-exclusively-
on-amazon/
Amazon exclusives – Tuft & Needle
https://www.mattressclarity.com/news/tuft-needle-nod-exclusively-amazon/

Appendix 1
49
What’s Yours is Mine
Ikea & rental
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ikea-sustainability-cities/ikea-to-test-furniture-rental-
in-30-countries-idUKKCN1RF1ST
LEGO ‘is considering rental’
https://www.ft.com/content/b50bbbec-eda9-11e9-ad1e-4367d8281195
ThredUp stores up in Macy’s
https://www.forbes.com/sites/retailwire/2019/08/21/with-thredup-macys-taps-into-a-
hot-trend/
Invisible Money
An explanation of how Klarna works
https://www.klarna.com/uk/about-us/
Get paid early with Monzo
https://monzo.com/features/get-paid-early/
Block payees with Barclays
https://www.barclays.co.uk/help/mobile-banking/spending/merchant-control/
Examples of how Apple Card works
https://www.apple.com/apple-card/
AliPay lets people use the app in Scandinavia
https://www.helsinkibusinesshub.fi/alipay-epassi-lahitaksi-partner-finland-1st-chinese-
travellers-cash-free-holiday/
Facebook Pay – a way of paying across Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp
https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/12/20961447/facebook-pay-whatsapp-
instagram-messenger-features
An example of a multi currency cards
https://blockchainreporter.net/2019/11/11/crypto-news-wirex-introduces-visa-multi-
currency-travelcard-targeting-borderless-payments/

Appendix 1
50
Life is Just a (Video) Game
The median ages of sports fans
https://www.ft.com/content/f2103e72-b38f-11e9-bec9-fdcab53d6959
F1 on Twitch
https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/146720/f1-to-experiment-with-mexican-gp-
stream-on-twitch
NBA on Twitch
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nba-twitch/nba-twitch-announce-deal-for-
digital-rights-to-usa-basketball-idUSKCN1UW1EN
Japan Skins – A head to head golf tournament
https://www.todaysgolfer.co.uk/news-and-events/tour-news/2019/september/the-
challenge-japan-skins-match-between-rory-mcilroy-tiger-woods-hideki-matsuayam-
and-jason-day-confirmed-/
Music in video games is responsible for increasing artists popularity
https://www.dreamteamfc.com/c/gaming/137316/fifa-18-spoke-team-behind-
games-music-soundtrack/
Marshmallo’s concert in Fortnite
https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/21/18234980/fortnite-marshmello-concert-viewer-
numbers
An example of a kit deal for an eSports team
https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/28/18244435/nike-league-of-legends-jersey-
sneakers-lpl-china
An example of an immersive gaming experience
https://vrscout.com/news/void-jumanji-location-based-vr-announced/

Appendix 1
51
Play it Your Way
All about Black Mirror’s Bandersnatch film
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/black-mirror-bandersnatch-endings-
explained-1171556
Porsche’s event on Twitter
https://www.mobilemarketer.com/news/porsche-test-drives-branded-games-on-
amazons-twitch/562102/
Eko’s short interactive brand films
https://company.eko.com/
Cookie Cutters
There is lots of background on cookies in this iProspect report
https://www.iprospect.com/en/nl/insights/whitepapers/happy-25-birthday-cookie/
Dark(er) Social
Instagram’s close friends feature – launched in late 2018
https://instagram-press.com/blog/2018/11/30/share-with-your-close-friends-on-
instagram-stories/
How Coleen Rooney used this feature
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/coleen-rooney-rebekah-vardy-twitter-
instagram-stories-sun-wayne-jamie-wag-a9148631.html
Facebook’s increased focus on groups
https://www.facebook.com/notes/mark-zuckerberg/a-privacy-focused-vision-for-
social-networking/10156700570096634/
The Peloton members group
https://www.facebook.com/groups/pelotonmembers/?tn-str=*F
All about Thingtesting, and how it monetises
https://www.producthunt.com/stories/from-the-thingtester-how-to-build-an-entire-
business-on-instagram

Appendix 1
52
Post-Production Advertising
Mirriad
https://www.mirriad.com/
Supponor
https://www.supponor.com/
Bidstack
https://www.bidstack.com/
The Age of Addressable TV
70% of TV shipments are now connected TVs
https://www.digitaltveurope.com/2018/07/18/ihs-markit-70-of-tv-shipments-to-be-
smart-sets-in-2018/
eMarketer’s ad spend stats
https://www.fiercevideo.com/video/connected-tv-ad-spending-to-top-10b-by-2021-
emarketer-says
Roku’s estimate of the amount of connected TV watched, vs ad budgets for
connected TV
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/11/09/roku-is-making-2258-per-user-and-this-is-
just-the.aspx
YouTube’s new connected TV ad formats
https://www.thedrum.com/news/2019/09/18/youtube-bringing-masthead-ads-
connected-tv-its-fastest-growing-medium
Examples of targeting options available on Sky AdSmart
https://www.adsmartfromsky.co.uk/audience/
Info on Sky AdSmart, including number of brands who advertise
https://www.skymedia.co.uk/news/sky-media-reveals-power-of-addressable-tv-in-
five-year-study-amid-successful-expansion-into-virgin-homes/

Contextual Commerce
The year saw many examples of brands selling via social media and
video. For some major brands in the US, the biggest event was the
introduction of Instagram Checkout in March. While this still has not
been rolled out more widely than its original list of brands, or outside of
the US, reportedly brands are doing well with the feature (and adidas
has reported a sales boost because of it).
News of brands selling via social channels seems to happen every
week, including Kroger on TikTok, while Facebook has introduced
shoppable ads, and Google is making YouTube more shoppable. It’s
not as easy or as prevalent as in China yet, but we’re getting there.
Appendix 2
53
DID WE GET IT RIGHT?
Yes, though just via Social and Video
2019 TRENDS REVISITED

Experiential eCommerce
This year, more brands and influencers are experimenting with selling
through live streams. Kim Kardashian took part in a live stream for
China’s Singles Day in November (to 12m viewers), while in the West
Amazon co-opted Twitch into its own Prime Day for the first time. Twitch
streamers got to choose their favourite Prime Day bargains, and sell
them in a 2-day event, appropriately called Twitch Sells Out. Amazon is
also testing its live shopping streams, at Amazon.com/live, but it still
feels like a trial (for example Oprah did not appear for the 1-hour
stream devoted to her Christmas picks).
We’ve also seen more shoppable augmented reality, from brands like
Nike, Ikea, and Kohls, and in South Korea a new 5G service lets people
use their phones to see detailed 360° versions of products being shown
on shopping channels.
Appendix 2
54
Yes

Games in Messaging
Instagram got rid of one of the main ‘by invitation’ mechanisms late in
2018 when they made it possible to share with close friends, rather than
create ‘finsta’ accounts. Some are using this feature to monetise their
social media followings, including Jenny Gyllander’s ThingTesting
Instagram page, where she reviews new direct-to-consumer products.
She charges to be part of her close friends' network, with advance
notice of new products and invites to events. There are now 600
people in her waiting list to join.
We also saw other attempts to let superfans be in the know, including
Samsung partnering with restaurants to create secret menus on a
page that only Samsung devices could visit. Conservatory, a store in
New York, requires people to visit in person to get an access code so
that they can shop online.
Appendix 2
55
Absolutely

Life as a Service (LaaS)
Subscriptions were huge in 2019. Lots of new categories and players
tried a subscription model, making commerce more of a service,
including Fender guitars (pay to get regular new lessons for songs to
play), A barbershop (a regular haircut and shave with drink included),
and the Camp toy shop (shop out of standard times, and use the store
act as a creche). Meanwhile, Apple moved more into services, with
bundled access to games (Arcade) and TV (TV+), in addition to its
Apple music offering.
Appendix 2
56
Absolutely

‘By Invitation’
Instagram got rid of one of the main ‘by invitation’ mechanisms late in
2018 when they made it possible to share with close friends, rather than
create ‘finsta’ accounts. Some are using this feature to monetise their
social media followings, including Jenny Gyllander’s ThingTesting
Instagram page, where she reviews new direct-to-consumer products.
She charges to be part of her close friends' network, with advance
notice of new products and invites to events. There are now 600
people in her waiting list to join.
We also saw other attempts to let superfans be in the know, including
Samsung partnering with restaurants to create secret menus on a
page that only Samsung devices could visit. Conservatory, a store in
New York, requires people to visit in person to get an access code so
that they can shop online.
Appendix 2
57
Absolutely

Smart Out Of Home
We saw lots of brands using the new digital capabilities of out of home.
HBO ran a very ambitious campaign for Watchmen, featuring
countdown clocks, and augmented reality integration. Pokemon Go
arranged to digital posters to all ‘crash’ and get taken over by
Pokemon to publicise a big event in New York. Unlike in 2018, one of
the Cannes Outdoor winners for 2019 included smart targeting, but we
expect the capabilities to feed into the creativity next year.
Out Of Home also proved a perfect medium for very agile brands like
GSK’s Piri allergy products, who were able to include triggers like pollen
counts in their targeting.
Appendix 2
58
Partly

Design From Data
Data and measurement are being used to design products and
services more than ever. This year one of our trends is the rise of ‘Own
Label’ – platforms like Netflix, Airbnb, and Deliveroo taking the data
they have and cutting out the middle man by creating products for
themselves based on what they know is likely to work. We are also
seeing the rise of new measurement companies, including Spate,
which helps beauty brands make decisions by telling them what
people are searching for within the category, including new colours
and ingredients.
Appendix 2
59
Yes

Targeting Post-GDPR
GDPR has ushered in a new way of thinking, with some partners leaving
the European market altogether and privacy concerns being top of
mind in agencies and publishers
GDPR is continuing to have an impact on marketers, and its influence is
spreading beyond Europe, for example, in the California Consumer
Privacy Act, which comes into force on 1st January 2020. It can be
argued that GDPR has had a good effect on targeting, as it has meant
that advertisers have had to clean up their data and that as a result,
data is much higher quality. But targeting now has a new threat – the
fact that two major browsers, Apple’s Safari, and Firefox, are more
actively blocking cookies.
We see more contextual advertising as a result of GDPR, but we also
see more advertising on signed in platforms. For example, Spotify’s new
focus on podcasts means that it can advertise to signed-in users,
targeting both on the user’s ID, but also the context of the podcast
itself.
Appendix 2
60
Partly

Expanding Connectivity
5G has arrived and is already seeing take-up. In South Korea, there
were 3.5m 5G accounts by the end of September, and it looks likely
that there will be more than 5m by the end of the year. We are
monitoring for new services coming out of the fast connectivity, and
we have already seen an augmented reality app for TV shopping. In
the US many sports stadiums are being connected to 5G so that fans
can enjoy extra features in their seats.
We also see lots of plans to help global connectivity through satellites,
with Elon Musk’s SpaceX planning more than 40,000 to boost global
broadband. Connectivity has never been more important.
Appendix 2
61
Yes

Digital Detox
Digital Detox was the only one of the ten trends that did not happen.
We have not seen a decline in usage of digital media, and it seems
that the lure of content is just too great. However, we have seen
initiatives to reduce the addictive nature of some of the features of
social media, most notably Instagram making the number of ‘Likes’
that a post gets invisible to users, to reduce the pressure that some feel.
While we may not have many detoxing, this feels like a positive step.
Appendix 2
62
Not really

Carat's 10 trends for 2020

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