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10 TRENDS FOR 2013
December 2012
10 TRENDS FOR 2013
•   We have been producing trends for clients for the past few years
•   Nothing changes on New Year’s Day; all of these trends are already happening, but
    will grow significantly over the next 12 months, having a greater impact than in the
    previous twelve
•   We highlight what the trends are, why they are growing, key illustrative examples, and
    implications for brands, rooted in what we have observed this year

•   These are trends, not ‘the trends’. There are lots of things happening, and we hope
    we have chosen some the most interesting
10 TRENDS FOR 2013
1. Makers
2. Online to Offline
3. Work-arounds
4. Paid
5. Digital Scarcity
6. Chinese Influence
7. Acquisitions
8. Targeting
9. New Currencies
10.The Wow Factor
MAKERS
•   People and brands are extending the DIY ethos of user generated content and
    starting to make real, physical things. Leading to a rise of user generated content as
    physical things
•   This is driven by the falling cost of technology like 3D printers, and the rose of crowd-
    funding sites
MAKERS
•   3D printing, where physical objects are printed or cut out are falling in price, which
    will make them more viable for businesses or shared spaces like studios to buy
•   (The Pirate Bay now even has a special download category, physables, which are
    patterns to use on 3D printers)
•   Although music, films and art make up over 2/3 of the successful projects on the
    crowdfunding platform Kickstarter, more people are raising money for physical
    products, like the Pebble ePaper watch, the Ubi voice controlled computer, or
    Projecteo, a projector for Instagram pictures
•   Marketplaces like Etsy are also making it easier to for people to design and sell their
    own goods to a global audience
MAKERS
•   Brands are also starting to let their
    customers make products relating to their
    brands, by working with the new creator
    communities
•   Disney let visitors to their Parks create a
    Disney Princess with their own face on the
    doll
•   Domino’s Pizza set a challenge to the Forge
    open source car creator community to
    create the perfect pizza delivery vehicle –
    and hope to build it next year
•   The ‘Quirky’ community crowdsourced 15
    iPhone 5 accessories and put them on sale
    on Fab.com within a week of the new phone
    being released
IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
•   Get involved!
•   What products are there, outside of your normal activities, that would appeal to your
    customers or users?
•   Is there a maker community with a strong affinity with your brand that you could
    involve?
ONLINE TO OFFLINE
•   Digital only companies are establishing physical presences, or building real
    experiences
•   Online brands know that if they take their knowledge of online into the physical world
    they can gain even more market share
ONLINE TO OFFLINE
•   Amazon, the biggest online retailer is starting
    to same day delivery (order in the morning
    and receive in the evening), and have
    ‘Lockers’ in public places where goods can be
    delivered to
•   Brands are offering real experiences to make
    the virtual real - Nissan Gran Turismo trained
    some online gamers to be racing drivers at Le
    Mans
•   Google’s new mobile game is a physical
    game. You play Ingress by walking around
    getting physical cues from your surroundings
    on your phone
ONLINE TO OFFLINE
•   We’re also seeing more seamless integration
    between online data and traditional media
•   The TV ads for Halo 4 put gamers’ names &
    pictures from a Facebook app directly onto
    TV
•   Gambling ads can give live odds within a TV
    ad at half-time in a game
•   We’re also seeing more brands measure
    offline results from digital campaigns – for
    example the sales uplift in-store from a
    search campaign
IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
•   Think about areas where you are currently online only, but could benefit from a real
    world presence
•   This could be anything from seasonal pop-up shops to photo opportunities in high
    traffic areas
•   Think about data or information that could be used in near-real time in traditional
    communication
•   Design measurement frameworks to let you track online activity to offline
WORK-AROUNDS
•   People and companies are developing work-arounds for technology that
    doesn’t work as well as it should
•   This can be seen in anything from mobile payment systems to sharing on
    Instagram, as people use their ingenuity to work around legal restrictions, or
    just service deficiencies
WORK-AROUNDS
•   There are lots of work-arounds with mobile
    payments
•   Google wallet started off as a way of paying with
    an Android phone with its own NFC chip, but
    Google are now producing a full physical card
•   The Paypal mobile payment system works on any
    phone, using either QR codes or payment codes,
    and they are introducing it to retail chains
•   Square’s Wallet is a mobile app that contains all
    of your cards and loyalty cards by also bypasses
    NFC
•   Even through there are now over 100m phones
    with NFC chips in circulation (& all major
    manufacturers apart from Apple sell at least one),
    operators are experimenting with NFC chips built
    into the SIM card
WORK-AROUNDS
•   There are lots of other examples of work-
    arounds where the technology isn’t good
    enough or widespread enough, or simply
    won’t let you do things
•   Instagram won’t let you share other
    people’s photos (but you can do it by
    taking screen shots & re-uploading)
•   Apple wanted to take a large cut in digital
    subscriptions from the FT in the Apple App
    Store (so the FT made HTML5 app that
    would work on all devices to get around it)
•   IFTTT – IF This Then That - is a site that
    lets you do your own work-arounds by
    linking different technologies beyond what
    the originators intended – for example
    automatically save all your Instagram
    pictures to Dropbox (or to put your
    Instagram pics onto Twitter)
IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
•   Finding popular work-arounds can be great inspiration for either adapting your
    business or creating a new business
•   Are there awkward things that everyone does with your product that you can
    simplify?
•   Or things that people like your customers do that you could offer as a simplified
    service?
PAID
•   There has never been more online piracy than there is now, but at the same time
    people are getting more willing to pay for some things
•   This is down to the ease of payment, understanding why the payment is needed, and
    being able to see where the payment is going
PAID
•   Again Kickstarter is a great example of this. It’s very
    simple to make a payment, there are no ‘free options’, so
    no freeloaders. You need to pay even to express your
    support for a campaign, while projects are encouraged to
    both explain very clearly their ‘journey’ and why they
    want the money
•   People funding through Kickstarter know that the
    payment is going directly to the projects (with a small
    deduction), and the people seeking funding often try to
    get closer to their funders at the higher payment levels –
    gigs in people’s houses, or allowing people to be involved
    in development decisions for example
•   Comedian Louis CK managed to sell an album to over
    200,000 at $5 a download, by telling people why he
    deserved the money, and how hard he worked
PAID
•   A statue of Robocop in Detroit was funded (to over
    $100,000) because people thought it was a great idea
•   Facebook has launched a new gifts service in the US,
    where people pay to have physical gifts delivered to their
    friends. Once credits are set up, paying for items is very
    easy
•   There is even a sign that newspaper paywalls may be
    working. The New York Times now has over 450,000
    digital subscribers, and gets more revenue from
    subscriptions than advertising
•   Charities are also getting good at taking payment.
    Charity Water shows how its donations are spent with use
    of photos and GPS
IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
•   Consider whether you are giving something away that you could sell – digital does not
    have to mean free
•   Provenance and understanding of why payment is needed is vital – and so corporate
    social responsibility becomes more important than ever
DIGITAL SCARCITY
•   One of the features of digital media is that things don’t run out – a store can’t run
    out of eBooks for example
•   However scarcity (or artificial scarcity) can create demand & push up prices so
    businesses are starting to find ways to build it in
DIGITAL SCARCITY
•   Brands can create scarcity by doing things for a limited
    time. Ebay created an online pop-up shop for Henry
    Holland to run only during London Fashion Week
•   Sites like Fab.com run sales over very limited periods (&
    even the concept of ‘Black Friday’ online, where the
    stores were open on Thanksgiving Day anyway is
    artificial)
•   JK Rowling’s site Pottermore was originally launched to
    only 1m members despite there being much higher
    demand
•   Some celebrities (like Justin Bieber and members of One
    Direction) have special ‘secret’ accounts on Twitter &
    Instagram for super fans in addition to their verified
    accounts
DIGITAL SCARCITY
•   Sites are pushing scarcity by developing their own
    ad formats that only they can sell, which also blur
    the boundaries between what is an ad and what is
    content
•   Sites doing this include Facebook, Twitter, Tumblr
    and YouTube – and many magazines sell out of ad
    inventory for their iPad editions by deliberately
    limiting the number of ads and advertisers per
    issue
•   However this can lead to silo-ed measurement,
    where it’s hard for advertisers to see the
    performance of media in relation to the whole
    media buy
IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
•   It’s an opportunity – and a threat
•   It’s an opportunity to make your content seem more desirable by limiting access to it
    (assuming that it’s desirable in the first place), and also to try to identify your most
    valuable customers and reward them with some kind of access
•   It’s also an opportunity to achieve real stand out on sites where ad formats are
    specifically designed to reflect the feel and content, but it’s a threat in that it can
    lead to higher media costs, and more silo-ed tracking
CHINESE INFLUENCE
•   China’s power & influence in the digital economy is increasing and will soon start to
    be very noticeable
•   The Chinese became the largest nation online three years ago, and since they block
    many Western services, domestic companies have been able to grow without
    competition from Silicon Valley
•   Now they are starting to lead and set trends, especially in mobile, messaging and
    ecommerce
CHINESE INFLUENCE
•   China is a leader in mobile internet access. In the third quarter this year 60 million
    smartphones were sold in China, compared to 20 million PCs
•   This is reflected in it’s media channels - Social media firm Tencent has nearly 800
    million active users of it’s instant messaging service; it’s also well diversified, with
    less than 10% of revenues coming from advertising
•   Its mobile app Weixin (WeChat) has over 200 million users less than two years since
    launch (100m in the past 6 months), and looks set to go global
•   Meanwhile Baidu reports that 25% of searches now relate to location, so presumably
    from mobile devices
CHINESE INFLUENCE
•   eCommerce is also starting to out-pace the West – Singles Day (11th November, or
    11.11) generated an online spend of $3 billion, compared to just $1.4 billion in the
    US on Cyber Monday
•   China also leads in mobile TV viewing, with 45 million viewers, as at June 2012,
    nearly half of whom pay
•   Not surprisingly, Chinese companies are seeing Western investment, including UUCun
    (mobile advertising) and Transmension (putting mobile and other games onto TV
    platforms)
IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
•   Keep up to date with what is happening in China
•   Look on China as an innovation leader in human behaviour in technology usage,
    particularly mobile. What works in China today may be popular in the West soon
•   Monitor what services are available within technologies like WeChat – they may soon
    emerge elsewhere
ACQUISITIONS
•   A scary statistic: four billion dollar software companies are created every year in
    Silicon Valley
•   Many companies are created with the aim going public, but since the recent IPOs of
    companies like Zynga, Pandora and Facebook many of these companies will be put
    off from taking this route (& find it hard to get underwritten) so there is likely to be a
    wave of large acquisitions
ACQUISITIONS
•   Many of the new companies are more single purpose &
    specialised than previous companies
•   For example Facebook wanted to cover all of the most
    used parts of the web (mail, pictures, video, instant
    messaging), but Pinterest does just one thing very well
•   Specialist single aim companies seen often as ‘better’
    at particular service than generalists, so can be targets
    for takeover
ACQUISITIONS
•   Many companies from a few years ago left it too late to
    be bought – Digg was rumoured to be worth $200m in
    2008; in 2012 it sold for under $20m
•   Google tried to buy Groupon for (a reported) $6 billion –
    now Groupon is missing revenue targets and investors
    are unhappy
•   The dream for many start-ups could now be to ‘do an
    Instagram’ rather than to float – get an exit without
    having to struggle for monetisation
IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
•   Lots of the start-ups from the past few years are likely to become part of bigger
    companies, specifically the big 5 of Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft
•   These companies will see their technological footprint grow; decide whose side(s) you
    want to be on
TARGETING
•   There are now lots of new targeting options from individual sites like Facebook
    and Twitter, and ad exchanges, based either on real data or assumptions
•   Sites with lots of data on consumers are getting better at processing it and
    selling on it, but advertising has to work harder
TARGETING
•   Facebook and Twitter both introduced lots of new
    targeting options in 2012, and will introduce more as they
    push for more monetisation
•   This is part of a move in planning from proxy-based (e.g.
    demographics), to cookie based, to self-declared data
•   Akamai & Quantcast are now offering targeting across
    networks based on audience characteristics inferred from
    very high sample sizes
•   Lots of online display advertising is now created
    dynamically – the audience attributes determine the
    message, the images and the colour of the ad from a
    range of options
•   Even direct mail is changing – retailers can now work out
    so much about us from what we regularly buy, and put the
    right vouchers and offers into mail shots
TARGETING
•   Facebook is going to have a great year, based on its new
    powers of targeting
•   It can already target across its site on declared and
    demographic data, as sold on its ad exchange
•   It can also tracking events (e.g. purchases) on third party
    sites back to the ads it shows, and can target on email
    addresses, for example to allow online retailers to advertise
    to its subscribers when they log in to Facebook.
•   It is likely to start to monetise Instagram (which also has
    lots of user data)
IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
•   Get to know your audience and try to find characteristics that define them
•   Think about new ways of targeting, based on habits, preferences, what else they buy,
    where they go, and more
NEW CURRENCIES
•   People are now leveraging their social influence as a currency
•   Measurement helps brands to understand the benefit of personal endorsement, so
    there will be more ways to encourage this by giving people with influence incentives
    to try goods
NEW CURRENCIES
•   Amazon offer free product through their Vine
    programme to valued reviewers, on the understanding
    that they will write an honest review (positive or
    negative)
•   Services like Klout, Peer Index and Kred allow brands
    to assess audience value through influence & more
•   Kellogg’s let customers pay with a tweet – one tweet
    about the product got a box of their new Special K
    Cracker Crisps
•   But… Trust is an essential part of any social currency,
    so over-use will lead to expectation by the influencers
    and the benefit will be lost
NEW CURRENCIES
•   Mobile credit is also emerging as a new currency
•   In Zimbabwe mobile credit is being given by YoTime
    instead of change for small amounts, as it is easier than
    printing currency
•   British virtual mobile operator GiffGaff rewards its users
    with free credit when they recruit new customers
IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
•   Understand your audience, and the influence they have over others
•   Is it worth rewarding the ones who recommend you? Will they do it more often, or
    will it devalue your brand?
•   Can you reward your most passionate fans on other ways if not with your own
    products?
THE WOW FACTOR
•   Brands will do more and more breathtaking things
THE WOW FACTOR
•   Felix Baumgartner’s Red Bull Stratos jump was a genuinely breathtaking piece of
    marketing that was watched like on YouTube by 8 million people. The highlights have
    been viewed 30 million times
THE WOW FACTOR
•   Microsoft is working in a real time voice translation
•   It will translate voice in (very near) real time – it’s been demonstrated with
    English and Mandarin
THE WOW FACTOR
•   But other ‘wows’ are lower tech, for example the
    Popinator voice controlled pop-corn machine,
    made by snacks company Popcorn Indiana
•   Which leads us back to ‘Makers’
IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
•   Be original, unusual, and unique
•   Budgets don’t have to be enormous, but do or make things that really capture the
    imagination

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10 Trends for 2013

  • 1. 10 TRENDS FOR 2013 December 2012
  • 2. 10 TRENDS FOR 2013 • We have been producing trends for clients for the past few years • Nothing changes on New Year’s Day; all of these trends are already happening, but will grow significantly over the next 12 months, having a greater impact than in the previous twelve • We highlight what the trends are, why they are growing, key illustrative examples, and implications for brands, rooted in what we have observed this year • These are trends, not ‘the trends’. There are lots of things happening, and we hope we have chosen some the most interesting
  • 3. 10 TRENDS FOR 2013 1. Makers 2. Online to Offline 3. Work-arounds 4. Paid 5. Digital Scarcity 6. Chinese Influence 7. Acquisitions 8. Targeting 9. New Currencies 10.The Wow Factor
  • 4. MAKERS • People and brands are extending the DIY ethos of user generated content and starting to make real, physical things. Leading to a rise of user generated content as physical things • This is driven by the falling cost of technology like 3D printers, and the rose of crowd- funding sites
  • 5. MAKERS • 3D printing, where physical objects are printed or cut out are falling in price, which will make them more viable for businesses or shared spaces like studios to buy • (The Pirate Bay now even has a special download category, physables, which are patterns to use on 3D printers) • Although music, films and art make up over 2/3 of the successful projects on the crowdfunding platform Kickstarter, more people are raising money for physical products, like the Pebble ePaper watch, the Ubi voice controlled computer, or Projecteo, a projector for Instagram pictures • Marketplaces like Etsy are also making it easier to for people to design and sell their own goods to a global audience
  • 6. MAKERS • Brands are also starting to let their customers make products relating to their brands, by working with the new creator communities • Disney let visitors to their Parks create a Disney Princess with their own face on the doll • Domino’s Pizza set a challenge to the Forge open source car creator community to create the perfect pizza delivery vehicle – and hope to build it next year • The ‘Quirky’ community crowdsourced 15 iPhone 5 accessories and put them on sale on Fab.com within a week of the new phone being released
  • 7. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS • Get involved! • What products are there, outside of your normal activities, that would appeal to your customers or users? • Is there a maker community with a strong affinity with your brand that you could involve?
  • 8. ONLINE TO OFFLINE • Digital only companies are establishing physical presences, or building real experiences • Online brands know that if they take their knowledge of online into the physical world they can gain even more market share
  • 9. ONLINE TO OFFLINE • Amazon, the biggest online retailer is starting to same day delivery (order in the morning and receive in the evening), and have ‘Lockers’ in public places where goods can be delivered to • Brands are offering real experiences to make the virtual real - Nissan Gran Turismo trained some online gamers to be racing drivers at Le Mans • Google’s new mobile game is a physical game. You play Ingress by walking around getting physical cues from your surroundings on your phone
  • 10. ONLINE TO OFFLINE • We’re also seeing more seamless integration between online data and traditional media • The TV ads for Halo 4 put gamers’ names & pictures from a Facebook app directly onto TV • Gambling ads can give live odds within a TV ad at half-time in a game • We’re also seeing more brands measure offline results from digital campaigns – for example the sales uplift in-store from a search campaign
  • 11. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS • Think about areas where you are currently online only, but could benefit from a real world presence • This could be anything from seasonal pop-up shops to photo opportunities in high traffic areas • Think about data or information that could be used in near-real time in traditional communication • Design measurement frameworks to let you track online activity to offline
  • 12. WORK-AROUNDS • People and companies are developing work-arounds for technology that doesn’t work as well as it should • This can be seen in anything from mobile payment systems to sharing on Instagram, as people use their ingenuity to work around legal restrictions, or just service deficiencies
  • 13. WORK-AROUNDS • There are lots of work-arounds with mobile payments • Google wallet started off as a way of paying with an Android phone with its own NFC chip, but Google are now producing a full physical card • The Paypal mobile payment system works on any phone, using either QR codes or payment codes, and they are introducing it to retail chains • Square’s Wallet is a mobile app that contains all of your cards and loyalty cards by also bypasses NFC • Even through there are now over 100m phones with NFC chips in circulation (& all major manufacturers apart from Apple sell at least one), operators are experimenting with NFC chips built into the SIM card
  • 14. WORK-AROUNDS • There are lots of other examples of work- arounds where the technology isn’t good enough or widespread enough, or simply won’t let you do things • Instagram won’t let you share other people’s photos (but you can do it by taking screen shots & re-uploading) • Apple wanted to take a large cut in digital subscriptions from the FT in the Apple App Store (so the FT made HTML5 app that would work on all devices to get around it) • IFTTT – IF This Then That - is a site that lets you do your own work-arounds by linking different technologies beyond what the originators intended – for example automatically save all your Instagram pictures to Dropbox (or to put your Instagram pics onto Twitter)
  • 15. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS • Finding popular work-arounds can be great inspiration for either adapting your business or creating a new business • Are there awkward things that everyone does with your product that you can simplify? • Or things that people like your customers do that you could offer as a simplified service?
  • 16. PAID • There has never been more online piracy than there is now, but at the same time people are getting more willing to pay for some things • This is down to the ease of payment, understanding why the payment is needed, and being able to see where the payment is going
  • 17. PAID • Again Kickstarter is a great example of this. It’s very simple to make a payment, there are no ‘free options’, so no freeloaders. You need to pay even to express your support for a campaign, while projects are encouraged to both explain very clearly their ‘journey’ and why they want the money • People funding through Kickstarter know that the payment is going directly to the projects (with a small deduction), and the people seeking funding often try to get closer to their funders at the higher payment levels – gigs in people’s houses, or allowing people to be involved in development decisions for example • Comedian Louis CK managed to sell an album to over 200,000 at $5 a download, by telling people why he deserved the money, and how hard he worked
  • 18. PAID • A statue of Robocop in Detroit was funded (to over $100,000) because people thought it was a great idea • Facebook has launched a new gifts service in the US, where people pay to have physical gifts delivered to their friends. Once credits are set up, paying for items is very easy • There is even a sign that newspaper paywalls may be working. The New York Times now has over 450,000 digital subscribers, and gets more revenue from subscriptions than advertising • Charities are also getting good at taking payment. Charity Water shows how its donations are spent with use of photos and GPS
  • 19. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS • Consider whether you are giving something away that you could sell – digital does not have to mean free • Provenance and understanding of why payment is needed is vital – and so corporate social responsibility becomes more important than ever
  • 20. DIGITAL SCARCITY • One of the features of digital media is that things don’t run out – a store can’t run out of eBooks for example • However scarcity (or artificial scarcity) can create demand & push up prices so businesses are starting to find ways to build it in
  • 21. DIGITAL SCARCITY • Brands can create scarcity by doing things for a limited time. Ebay created an online pop-up shop for Henry Holland to run only during London Fashion Week • Sites like Fab.com run sales over very limited periods (& even the concept of ‘Black Friday’ online, where the stores were open on Thanksgiving Day anyway is artificial) • JK Rowling’s site Pottermore was originally launched to only 1m members despite there being much higher demand • Some celebrities (like Justin Bieber and members of One Direction) have special ‘secret’ accounts on Twitter & Instagram for super fans in addition to their verified accounts
  • 22. DIGITAL SCARCITY • Sites are pushing scarcity by developing their own ad formats that only they can sell, which also blur the boundaries between what is an ad and what is content • Sites doing this include Facebook, Twitter, Tumblr and YouTube – and many magazines sell out of ad inventory for their iPad editions by deliberately limiting the number of ads and advertisers per issue • However this can lead to silo-ed measurement, where it’s hard for advertisers to see the performance of media in relation to the whole media buy
  • 23. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS • It’s an opportunity – and a threat • It’s an opportunity to make your content seem more desirable by limiting access to it (assuming that it’s desirable in the first place), and also to try to identify your most valuable customers and reward them with some kind of access • It’s also an opportunity to achieve real stand out on sites where ad formats are specifically designed to reflect the feel and content, but it’s a threat in that it can lead to higher media costs, and more silo-ed tracking
  • 24. CHINESE INFLUENCE • China’s power & influence in the digital economy is increasing and will soon start to be very noticeable • The Chinese became the largest nation online three years ago, and since they block many Western services, domestic companies have been able to grow without competition from Silicon Valley • Now they are starting to lead and set trends, especially in mobile, messaging and ecommerce
  • 25. CHINESE INFLUENCE • China is a leader in mobile internet access. In the third quarter this year 60 million smartphones were sold in China, compared to 20 million PCs • This is reflected in it’s media channels - Social media firm Tencent has nearly 800 million active users of it’s instant messaging service; it’s also well diversified, with less than 10% of revenues coming from advertising • Its mobile app Weixin (WeChat) has over 200 million users less than two years since launch (100m in the past 6 months), and looks set to go global • Meanwhile Baidu reports that 25% of searches now relate to location, so presumably from mobile devices
  • 26. CHINESE INFLUENCE • eCommerce is also starting to out-pace the West – Singles Day (11th November, or 11.11) generated an online spend of $3 billion, compared to just $1.4 billion in the US on Cyber Monday • China also leads in mobile TV viewing, with 45 million viewers, as at June 2012, nearly half of whom pay • Not surprisingly, Chinese companies are seeing Western investment, including UUCun (mobile advertising) and Transmension (putting mobile and other games onto TV platforms)
  • 27. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS • Keep up to date with what is happening in China • Look on China as an innovation leader in human behaviour in technology usage, particularly mobile. What works in China today may be popular in the West soon • Monitor what services are available within technologies like WeChat – they may soon emerge elsewhere
  • 28. ACQUISITIONS • A scary statistic: four billion dollar software companies are created every year in Silicon Valley • Many companies are created with the aim going public, but since the recent IPOs of companies like Zynga, Pandora and Facebook many of these companies will be put off from taking this route (& find it hard to get underwritten) so there is likely to be a wave of large acquisitions
  • 29. ACQUISITIONS • Many of the new companies are more single purpose & specialised than previous companies • For example Facebook wanted to cover all of the most used parts of the web (mail, pictures, video, instant messaging), but Pinterest does just one thing very well • Specialist single aim companies seen often as ‘better’ at particular service than generalists, so can be targets for takeover
  • 30. ACQUISITIONS • Many companies from a few years ago left it too late to be bought – Digg was rumoured to be worth $200m in 2008; in 2012 it sold for under $20m • Google tried to buy Groupon for (a reported) $6 billion – now Groupon is missing revenue targets and investors are unhappy • The dream for many start-ups could now be to ‘do an Instagram’ rather than to float – get an exit without having to struggle for monetisation
  • 31. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS • Lots of the start-ups from the past few years are likely to become part of bigger companies, specifically the big 5 of Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft • These companies will see their technological footprint grow; decide whose side(s) you want to be on
  • 32. TARGETING • There are now lots of new targeting options from individual sites like Facebook and Twitter, and ad exchanges, based either on real data or assumptions • Sites with lots of data on consumers are getting better at processing it and selling on it, but advertising has to work harder
  • 33. TARGETING • Facebook and Twitter both introduced lots of new targeting options in 2012, and will introduce more as they push for more monetisation • This is part of a move in planning from proxy-based (e.g. demographics), to cookie based, to self-declared data • Akamai & Quantcast are now offering targeting across networks based on audience characteristics inferred from very high sample sizes • Lots of online display advertising is now created dynamically – the audience attributes determine the message, the images and the colour of the ad from a range of options • Even direct mail is changing – retailers can now work out so much about us from what we regularly buy, and put the right vouchers and offers into mail shots
  • 34. TARGETING • Facebook is going to have a great year, based on its new powers of targeting • It can already target across its site on declared and demographic data, as sold on its ad exchange • It can also tracking events (e.g. purchases) on third party sites back to the ads it shows, and can target on email addresses, for example to allow online retailers to advertise to its subscribers when they log in to Facebook. • It is likely to start to monetise Instagram (which also has lots of user data)
  • 35. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS • Get to know your audience and try to find characteristics that define them • Think about new ways of targeting, based on habits, preferences, what else they buy, where they go, and more
  • 36. NEW CURRENCIES • People are now leveraging their social influence as a currency • Measurement helps brands to understand the benefit of personal endorsement, so there will be more ways to encourage this by giving people with influence incentives to try goods
  • 37. NEW CURRENCIES • Amazon offer free product through their Vine programme to valued reviewers, on the understanding that they will write an honest review (positive or negative) • Services like Klout, Peer Index and Kred allow brands to assess audience value through influence & more • Kellogg’s let customers pay with a tweet – one tweet about the product got a box of their new Special K Cracker Crisps • But… Trust is an essential part of any social currency, so over-use will lead to expectation by the influencers and the benefit will be lost
  • 38. NEW CURRENCIES • Mobile credit is also emerging as a new currency • In Zimbabwe mobile credit is being given by YoTime instead of change for small amounts, as it is easier than printing currency • British virtual mobile operator GiffGaff rewards its users with free credit when they recruit new customers
  • 39. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS • Understand your audience, and the influence they have over others • Is it worth rewarding the ones who recommend you? Will they do it more often, or will it devalue your brand? • Can you reward your most passionate fans on other ways if not with your own products?
  • 40. THE WOW FACTOR • Brands will do more and more breathtaking things
  • 41. THE WOW FACTOR • Felix Baumgartner’s Red Bull Stratos jump was a genuinely breathtaking piece of marketing that was watched like on YouTube by 8 million people. The highlights have been viewed 30 million times
  • 42. THE WOW FACTOR • Microsoft is working in a real time voice translation • It will translate voice in (very near) real time – it’s been demonstrated with English and Mandarin
  • 43. THE WOW FACTOR • But other ‘wows’ are lower tech, for example the Popinator voice controlled pop-corn machine, made by snacks company Popcorn Indiana • Which leads us back to ‘Makers’
  • 44. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS • Be original, unusual, and unique • Budgets don’t have to be enormous, but do or make things that really capture the imagination