A summary of research undertaken for FCDO Afghanistan on the challenges of natural hazards and internal displacement and migration in Afghanistan

1. Climate Change
Displacement & Migration
Summary of Technical Assistance provided to FCDO Afghanistan
March 2021
Magnus Wolfe Murray

2. Population exposed to
high frequency
drought in Afghanistan
Provides a forecast of potential
vulnerability to future
droughts.
Significant areas of
Afghanistan are highly
vulnerable to natural
disasters, especially drought,
given the lack of monsoon
rains, dwindling water
resources and denuded
landscapes.

3. Monitoring displacement over time:
The International Organisation for Migration
(IOM) manages a Displacement Tracking
Matrix (DTM).
• Note 25% displacement by natural hazards

4. Managing migration : Displacement and
Temporary Settlements
• Will be a feature of migration
everywhere.
• Multiple lessons can already be
learned from the Camp Management
sector on standards, value for money
and key priorities.
• Need to prepare for an adequate
response – that upholds protection,
dignity and builds resilience in the
course of people’s migration

5. Reality of displacement from natural hazards: chaotic, under-resourced, enormous
protection challenges, shelter, food security and WASH priorities

6. Support return where
possible
• A proportion of IDPs willing to return
home
• If conditions are acceptable (climate,
conflict, employment, basic services)
• Usually requires socio-economic
investment
• Create jobs – it will encourage return
• Where funding is limited – focus and
prioritise.

7. Lessons from Pakistan
Recovery from mega-floods: 2010 - 2014
In areas like these flooded by intense rains in
September 2012

8. • Shelter “roofing” kit – with steel beam = £70
• Water filter: multiple years of use
• Solar light x 1 @ £5.00 each
Lessons from Pakistan 2010 – 2018: Link
immediate relief to recovery – resilience
continuum – wherever possible

9. In migration or return, most families have used this roofing kit a “second time” to cover
temporary shelters. Now these same materials can be used a third time to cover a durable
flood-resistant home.

10. Overall – 120,000 Houses supported for post-flood reconstruction: very low cost / high
resilience design enabled 70% more beneficiaries with same budget.
Implementing partners: HANDS (Karachi based local NGO), IOM and ACTED
Walls from Lime-
Stabilised earth blocks:
flood resistant and low
cost
Steel girder used for
permanent roof

11. Raised platforms – for floods
(livestock protection)
Overall VFM
• Cost effective investment
• Multiple direct & indirect
benefits from single
investment
Excavation of earth
creates raised platform &
fish pond
And early rice seedlings
for pre-monsoon
harvest.

12. Baseline – pre-disaster
development / poverty
Disaster
B. Inadequate recovery =
increased vulnerability
A. Result: Communities are
less vulnerable and more
resilient
A. Reduced impact of
disaster due to multi-
sector recovery
B. More Severe impact of
disaster due to inadequate
recovery and insufficient
preparedness
B. Consequence of limited
recovery & resilience work:
Exacerbated vulnerability –
communities adopt negative
coping mechanisms
Time
Vulnerability
/
Resilience
Degree of resilience
increased – or
vulnerability exacerbated
– as result of recovery &
resilience decisions
Disaster – recovery – resilience continuum
Building Resilience to predictable natural hazards
Based on DFID response to floods in Pakistan 2010 - 2015

13. Significant waves of displacement to Urban areas – increasing pressure on limited local services:
health, water & sanitation, livelihoods.

14. What can be done to reduce climate
migration?
• Build resilience to known hazards (well known DRR response)
• Risk analysis: what are the specific natural hazards likely to increase
from climate variability in different regions?
• In Afghanistan: FAO supported Government to develop the National
Drought Risk Management Strategy – details risk and a response
plan.
• Sufficiently ambitious in scale: 10 years and $5bn

15. Examples of Operational priorities – Drought Risk
Management Strategy (2019 – 2030)
Sector Intended results Projects
Agriculture
(Dry-land & Irrigated)
• Increased knowledge & capacity for
production in extreme weather conditions
• Wider adoption of environmentally beneficial
techniques (reduce exposure)
✓ Conservation Agriculture
✓ Farmer Field Schools
✓ Demonstration plots and
practices
Rangeland, Pasture &
Forest
• Regeneration of denuded landscapes
• Increased capacity of land to absorb and hold
water
• Reverse top-soil erosion and landslides
✓ Reforestation
✓ “No-Grazing” zones and fencing
✓ Agro-forestry promotion
Soil & Water
• Increased capacity of soil to retain water
• Reduced flash flood / water run-off
• Improved soil quality and agriculture capacity
• Reduced vulnerability to drought and floods
• Increased ecological & biodiversity resilience
✓ Construction of on-contour
ditches and ponds to hold / slow
water
✓ Kareez rehabilitation
✓ Large scale application of
natural fertilisers and shade
(mulch) to protect exposed soil /
land

16. Where can we learn lessons from large scale landscape regeneration that has
reversed drought impacts?
• A good example: Loess Plateau Watershed Rehabilitation Project – China – where 50m
people were forced into migration due to denuded landscapes, drought and a food insecurity
crisis.
• In 1995, the Government of China and the World Bank started a watershed rehabilitation
programme.
• One of few projects to adopt ambitious scale: 15,600 km (half of Belgium)

18. The climate and environment in Afghanistan are not comparable to this part of China, but certain
principles and methods are universal: keep water higher for longer; create ditches on contour;
prevent water run-off; reduce grazing; accelerate reforestation, etc.

19. Regeneration in a dry mountain context?
South Asian Research Hub – look at existing evidence base at what works.

20. Addressing the “data challenge” DTM
Forestry &
Land Ministry
REACH
Govt. Stats
Beureau
Climate
modelling
Food
Insecurity
(FEWSNET)
Context is data rich
But often the different
information / data
sources are not
harmonised
Need to push for more
integration between Info
Management actors

21. Thanks –
to
FCDO and the people of
Afghanistan