An update on the Livestock-Climate Change CRSP CARBON Project (A cost-effectiveness framework for landscape rehabilitation and carbon sequestration in North Kenya) and the current status of the project. Presentation given by J. Belnap (USGS) at the Livestock-Climate Change CRSP Annual Meeting, Golden, CO, April 26-27, 2011.

1. A Cost-Effectiveness Framework for Landscape Rehabilitation and Carbon Sequestration in Northern Kenya Corinna Riginos, Jayne Belnap, Jeff Herrick, David W. Kimiti, Jesse Njoka, Wilfred O. Odadi,, Dan Rubenstein, Truman Young

2. C Sequestration & Rangelands C sequestration through improved management of world’s rangelands has significant potential to mitigate climate change (IPCC 2007) But most of Africa’s C sequestration potential is in areas that have been overgrazed Many areas already moderately to severely degraded

3. Improve rangeland management Rehabilitate degraded areas in socially-realistic ways Prevent further degradation in socially-realistic ways Increase C sequestration Decrease C loss Improve land productivity and resilience Improve livelihoods

4. Given limited resources, we need to know: Where are efforts (to rehabilitate degraded areas and to prevent further degradation) most likely to be effective, societally acceptable, cost-effective? Project Objective To develop and test a framework that informs managers how to prioritize efforts that maintains or increases quality of life (via increased forage), C storage

5. Four Questions to Address Objectives What is the potential of a site - how can it function and what is maximum forage, C storage under good management? How degraded is it relative to its potential? Corrective actions: What will it take to stop further degradation? To rehabilitate to a less degraded state? What will it cost? Will people support it? Benefits: How much can we increase forage, C storage and other services?

6. = preventing degradation Costs and Benefits of Transitions = restoring functioning State 1 Carbon storage or other ecosystem function State 2 State 3 State 4 Increasing degradation Where is the point that cost exceeds benefit?

7. Laikipia-Samburu Ecosystem

8. A Patchwork of Land Tenure and Use

9. What is the Potential of Different Sites? First, define key “ecological sites” -- similar capacity to produce forage, similar biotic community, resilience Requires combination of scientific and local knowledge

10. Q1. Two Broad Soil Groups Black Red

11. Q1: Progress Overlaid soil, vegetation, satellite imagery, and topographic maps to identify potential ecological sites On-site soil pits and vegetation surveys resulted in preliminary ecological sites for black cotton soils Red soils very complex

12. Q1: Next Steps Refine ecological sites on black cotton soils through further systematic sampling Define ecological sites on red soils. Will require much more effort, but they are the sites needing the most attention

13. 2. How Degraded is a Site Relative to its Potential? Identify possible degradation states and transitions among states (S&T models) Will pilot in black cotton Measure C storage in different states within different ecological sites in black cotton Red soil: start at patch scale within small sites until ecological site determined

14. Q2. Preliminary Patch Results

15. 3. Corrective Actions: What Will it Take to Rehabilitate Sites? Long-term goal: Cost-effectiveness of restoration for key ecological sites -- what does it take to move to a less degraded state? Short-term approach: Best methods (cost, spacing, labor, etc.) to increase plant cover, C storage at patch scale within a state/ecological site. We are starting with grass.

16. Q3. Erosion Barrier Experiment Silt fence Branches Branch bundles Labor & materials, more effective Cheap, ineffective Laborious, ineffective

17. Q3. Using Bomas for Restoration

18. 4. Costs & Benefits Costs: Money and labor costs for different management, restoration techniques Benefits: Success of different techniques in sites with different potential and/or degrees of degradation in terms of: C storage (soil C) Soil fertility (soil C, N, P) Water retention, reduced erosion (plant gaps, infiltration) Forage for animals (grass cover / biomass)

19. Outreach Activities Training & capacity building for local technicians Student group from U. of Nairobi (April) Interns from U. of Nairobi (July-Aug) Sharing findings with local organizations Training managers and NGO staff in monitoring & site potential concept in relation to management Possible future workshop for managers, CBOs

20. Leveraged Efforts for Better Management & Monitoring Predictive framework to advise future management decisions Complements efforts to promote long-term monitoring of land health Goal: Empower local people to improve their management & livelihoods Web link to boma and rangeland health guides: http://mpala.org/documents/Monitoring_Guide_29_2564489490.pdf

21. Summary: Next Steps Refine ecological sites for black cotton and red soils Develop state and transition models Test restoration techniques Measure long-term plant recovery, C storage at older restoration trials, boma sites in region to see what restores plants, soil C Work with communities to understand which restoration techniques are useful / usable Continue outreach efforts

22. Challenges & Lessons Landscape more complex than expected -- especially red soil Red soil more degraded than expected Wildlife, especially elephants, deconstruct that which we construct!! Site potential concept intuitive to local managers, but applying it requires long-term capacity building Gender inclusion – difficulty in finding interested and qualified women

23. Emerging/Future Scientific Issues for This Project Where will the ecological sites we develop apply across the region? Will others be needed? Need better mechanisms to tap local knowledge about site history & potential How will costs/benefits of interventions vary from year to year because of rainfall differences? Need to measure benefits in terms of resilience (climate change adaptation) Incorporate woody plants??? What techniques will people actually use?

24. Other Regional Issues Conversion of rangeland to cropland Human dimensions: How do governance / social factors interact with ecological factors in rangelands? What incentives are needed for better management and restoration of rangelands? Viability of carbon credit system in rangelands Ecological Socio-political structures (needs monitors) and changes (grazing, plant type, etc.) needed Economic analyses needed

25. Questions? This presentation was made possible by the United States Agency for International Development and the generous support of the American people through Grant No. EEM-A-00-10-0001. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.