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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                                    24th July 2012
         Indices *          Close          % Chg.
 BSE SENSEX                16877.35          -1.64
                                                                Nifty could test its 200-day SMA
 S&P CNX NIFTY              5117.95          -1.67
                                                       Mirroring the negative global market cues the domestic
 NIFTY JULY FUT.            5120.40          -1.84
                                                       markets witnessed a gap down opening. Sustained selling
 India VIX                   18.66          10.47      pressure was witnessed as markets traded with losses. The
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                 Indian markets extended their losses in the afternoon session
                                                       on back of weak European markets opening. The markets
                 Level 1    Level 2         Level 3
                                                       failed to show any signs of resilience against selling pressure
Support           5114       5101            4950
                                                       as buying support remained elusive. Tee markets ended the
Resistance        5250       5333            5379      day with large losses to close near the lows for the day,
 Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                  inching closer to its 200-day SMA. The top losers for the day
50 Day SMA                  5089.81
                                                       were BHEL, TCS, ACC, Jindal Steel, HUL, ITC, NTPC,
                                                       Powergrid, Sun Pharma and Hero Motorcorp.
100 Day SMA                 5162.13
200 Day SMA                 5101.28        ◄Critical   Technically, the market breadth remained negative
                                                       amidst higher volumes, which is a negative sign for the
   Market Breadth *          BSE             NSE
                                                       markets. The global market cues are negative. The
Advances                      990             360
                                                       domestic markets are likely to witness a flat opening. The
Declines                     1794            1132      prevailing technical negatives continued to weigh on
Same                          108               58     market sentiment. The Stochastic, MACD, RSI and KST
Total                        2892            1550      all remain placed below their respective averages.
A/D Ratio                   0.55 : 1        0.32 : 1   Further, the MACD and KST have slipped in the negative
                                                       and warn of impending selling pressure. The Nifty’s 50-
             Volume (Lacs Shares)      *               day SMA remains placed below its 100-day SMA and 200-
               23/07/12     20/07/12        % Chg.     day SMA. Moreover, the Nifty slips below its 100-day
BSE              2169        1575            37.71     SMA. These negative technical conditions would
NSE              4788        4774            0.28      continue to prompt selling pressure at regular intervals.
Total            6957        6349            9.57      The only silver lining for the market remains the Nifty
                                                       being placed above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA but
             Turnover ( ` Crores)      *               these are likely to be breached in the near future. The
               23/07/12     20/07/12        % Chg.     ADX line and -DI line are moving higher, while the +DI
BSE             1636.47     1727.85          -5.29     line is moving lower. The market sentiment remains
NSE             7783.35     8440.64          -7.79
                                                       negative as the markets continue to lack strength as
                                                       buying support remains absent. Now it is important that
NSE F&O        152550.62   118784.33         28.43
                                                       the Nifty does not breach its 200-day SMA on a closing
Total          161970.44   128952.82         25.60
                                                       basis otherwise increased selling pressure is likely to be
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)         *          witnessed. The markets would witness intermediate
               23/07/12     20/07/12        % Chg.
                                                       bouts of volatility. In the meanwhile the markets would
                                                       take cues from the earnings season, Rupee, global
Index Fut.      469297      340862           37.68
                                                       markets and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty
Stock Fut.      750963      572393           31.20
                                                       are placed at 5114, 5101 and 4950. The Nifty faces
Index Opt.     4353317      3356972          29.68     resistance at the 5250, 5333, 5379, 5464 and 5500 levels.
Stock Opt.      254592      224074           13.62
Total          5828169      4494301          22.85

NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE

Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                  Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in



                                                              Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                                th
                     The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                            www.keynotecapitals.com
Jaldi 5
                                     (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
                                                                                     Stop
                                                      Initiation      Stop           Loss                  Target
       Stock              Close         Action          Price        Loss *           (%)      Target       (%)         Remarks
Allahabad Bk. Fut         134.25       Sell Below          134.00     134.00          0.00        128         4.48
Crompton Greav. Fut       117.65       Sell Below          117.50     121.00          2.98        110         6.38


Balrampur Chini             59.60      Buy Above            60.00       56.75         5.42         67        11.67
Bata                      911.25   Buy Above         915.00           899.00          1.75        950         3.83
 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.


                                                              Intra-day Resistance                      Intra-day Support
       Indices            Close         Pivot Point          R1       R2         R3               S1           S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                   16877               16925       17000      17123          17322       16802        16726       16528
S&P CNX NIFTY                 5118                  5130      5152        5186          5242        5096         5074        5018
NIFTY JULY FUT.               5120                  5135      5159        5198          5260        5097         5073        5010




                                            Stocks To Watch Out Today
Bajaj Hind; Balrampur Chini, Bata, Colgate, McLeod Russel, Oil India, Opto Circuit, ZEEL
Aban, ABB, Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, BF Utilities, BGR Energy, Bharti Airtel, BPCL, Canara Bank, CESC, GAIL, HDFC,
HDFC Bank, HDIL, Hindalco, HOECL, HUL, ICICI Bank, IDBI Bank, IDFC, IFCI, IRB, ITC, JP Assoc; Kotak Bank, LIC Hsg;
Maruti, NTPC, Pantaloon Retail, PFC, Powergrid, Sterlite, Tata Steel, Yes Bank


                                                             Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                               th
                    The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                           www.keynotecapitals.com
NOTE:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average




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                                                         Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                            th
                 The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                       www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report for 240712

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 24th July 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. BSE SENSEX 16877.35 -1.64 Nifty could test its 200-day SMA S&P CNX NIFTY 5117.95 -1.67 Mirroring the negative global market cues the domestic NIFTY JULY FUT. 5120.40 -1.84 markets witnessed a gap down opening. Sustained selling India VIX 18.66 10.47 pressure was witnessed as markets traded with losses. The S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels Indian markets extended their losses in the afternoon session on back of weak European markets opening. The markets Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 failed to show any signs of resilience against selling pressure Support 5114 5101 4950 as buying support remained elusive. Tee markets ended the Resistance 5250 5333 5379 day with large losses to close near the lows for the day, Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY inching closer to its 200-day SMA. The top losers for the day 50 Day SMA 5089.81 were BHEL, TCS, ACC, Jindal Steel, HUL, ITC, NTPC, Powergrid, Sun Pharma and Hero Motorcorp. 100 Day SMA 5162.13 200 Day SMA 5101.28 ◄Critical Technically, the market breadth remained negative amidst higher volumes, which is a negative sign for the Market Breadth * BSE NSE markets. The global market cues are negative. The Advances 990 360 domestic markets are likely to witness a flat opening. The Declines 1794 1132 prevailing technical negatives continued to weigh on Same 108 58 market sentiment. The Stochastic, MACD, RSI and KST Total 2892 1550 all remain placed below their respective averages. A/D Ratio 0.55 : 1 0.32 : 1 Further, the MACD and KST have slipped in the negative and warn of impending selling pressure. The Nifty’s 50- Volume (Lacs Shares) * day SMA remains placed below its 100-day SMA and 200- 23/07/12 20/07/12 % Chg. day SMA. Moreover, the Nifty slips below its 100-day BSE 2169 1575 37.71 SMA. These negative technical conditions would NSE 4788 4774 0.28 continue to prompt selling pressure at regular intervals. Total 6957 6349 9.57 The only silver lining for the market remains the Nifty being placed above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA but Turnover ( ` Crores) * these are likely to be breached in the near future. The 23/07/12 20/07/12 % Chg. ADX line and -DI line are moving higher, while the +DI BSE 1636.47 1727.85 -5.29 line is moving lower. The market sentiment remains NSE 7783.35 8440.64 -7.79 negative as the markets continue to lack strength as buying support remains absent. Now it is important that NSE F&O 152550.62 118784.33 28.43 the Nifty does not breach its 200-day SMA on a closing Total 161970.44 128952.82 25.60 basis otherwise increased selling pressure is likely to be F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * witnessed. The markets would witness intermediate 23/07/12 20/07/12 % Chg. bouts of volatility. In the meanwhile the markets would take cues from the earnings season, Rupee, global Index Fut. 469297 340862 37.68 markets and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty Stock Fut. 750963 572393 31.20 are placed at 5114, 5101 and 4950. The Nifty faces Index Opt. 4353317 3356972 29.68 resistance at the 5250, 5333, 5379, 5464 and 5500 levels. Stock Opt. 254592 224074 13.62 Total 5828169 4494301 22.85 NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. th The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks Allahabad Bk. Fut 134.25 Sell Below 134.00 134.00 0.00 128 4.48 Crompton Greav. Fut 117.65 Sell Below 117.50 121.00 2.98 110 6.38 Balrampur Chini 59.60 Buy Above 60.00 56.75 5.42 67 11.67 Bata 911.25 Buy Above 915.00 899.00 1.75 950 3.83 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 16877 16925 17000 17123 17322 16802 16726 16528 S&P CNX NIFTY 5118 5130 5152 5186 5242 5096 5074 5018 NIFTY JULY FUT. 5120 5135 5159 5198 5260 5097 5073 5010 Stocks To Watch Out Today Bajaj Hind; Balrampur Chini, Bata, Colgate, McLeod Russel, Oil India, Opto Circuit, ZEEL Aban, ABB, Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, BF Utilities, BGR Energy, Bharti Airtel, BPCL, Canara Bank, CESC, GAIL, HDFC, HDFC Bank, HDIL, Hindalco, HOECL, HUL, ICICI Bank, IDBI Bank, IDFC, IFCI, IRB, ITC, JP Assoc; Kotak Bank, LIC Hsg; Maruti, NTPC, Pantaloon Retail, PFC, Powergrid, Sterlite, Tata Steel, Yes Bank Keynote Capitals Ltd. th The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. NOTE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS SMA – Simple Moving Average EMA – Exponential Moving Average WMA – Weighted Moving Average Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. th The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com