Regression analysis: Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression
Keynote technicals daily report for 060812
1. Daily Technical Outlook
6th August 2012
Indices * Close % Chg. Markets to test higher levels
BSE SENSEX 17197.93 -0.15
S&P CNX NIFTY 5215.70 -0.23 Mirroring the weak global market cues the domestic markets
NIFTY AUG. FUT. 5241.05 -0.11 witnessed a negative opening. Sustained selling pressure
India VIX 16.12 -3.87 was witnessed in the morning trade as markets traded below
the 5200 level. However, the markets managed to bounce
S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels back from the lower levels on back of positive European
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 market opening. Short covering and buying support was
Support 5106 5047 4950 witnessed which helped the markets move higher nearer the
Resistance 5250 5333 5379 5250 resistance level. The markets ended the day with
marginal losses to close near the highs for the day. The top
Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY losers for the day were BHEL, TCS, Jindal Steel, ACC, ITC,
50 Day SMA 5139.55 HUL, Powergrid, Hero Motocorp, Sun Pharma and Grasim.
100 Day SMA 5146.77
Technically, the market breadth remained negative
200 Day SMA 5106.52 ◄Critical
amidst higher volumes, which is a negative sign for the
Market Breadth * BSE NSE markets. The global market cues are positive. The
Advances 1263 598 domestic markets are likely to witness a firm opening.
Declines 1514 869
The prevailing technical negatives continued to weigh on
the market sentiment leading to selling pressure. The
Same 126 70
Stochastic and KST have slipped below their respective
Total 2903 1537
averages. Moreover, the MACD is already placed below
A/D Ratio 0.83 : 1 0.69 : 1
its average its average. The Stochastic remains placed in
Volume (Lacs Shares) * the over bought zone. The KST and MACD are placed in
the negative territory, which warns of impending selling
03/08/12 02/08/12 % Chg.
pressure. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed below
BSE 1988 1686 17.91
its 100-day SMA and is on verge of moving above it in the
NSE 5371 5576 -3.68 next few trading sessions. These negative technical
Total 7359 7262 1.33 conditions would prompt further bouts of profit taking
and selling pressure especially at higher levels. However,
Turnover ( ` Crores) *
a few technical positives still hold good. The RSI is
03/08/12 02/08/12 % Chg.
placed above its average. The Nifty remains placed
BSE 1905.55 1756.07 8.51 above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
NSE 8903.67 9345.22 -4.72 More so the Nifty’s 50-day SMA is placed above the
NSE F&O 100201.47 55596.18 80.23 Nifty’s 200-day SMA. These positives would lead to
Total 111010.69 66697.47 66.44 buying support at lower levels. The ADX line, the +DI line
and the –DI line are moving sideways, indicating a range
F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * bound trend. The market sentiment remains tentative as
03/08/12 02/08/12 % Chg. Nifty continues to struggle around the 5250 resistance
Index Fut. 423133 246418 71.71 level. Now it is important that the markets witness buying
Stock Fut. 428451 306701 39.70 support at regular intervals for the Nifty to close above
Index Opt. 2791816 1446881 92.95 the 5250 level and move higher to test the 5333-5379
Stock Opt. 168780 110561 52.66
levels. In the meanwhile the markets would take cues
from the Rupee, global market cues and the crude prices.
Total 3812180 2110561 66.48
The support levels for Nifty are placed at 5106, 5047, 5000,
NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE 4950 and 4859. The Nifty faces resistance at the 5250, 5333,
5379 and 5464 levels.
Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
th
The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
www.keynotecapitals.com
2. Jaldi 5
(Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
Stop
Initiation Stop Loss Target
Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks
Asian Paints 3757.25 Buy Above 3777 3724.00 1.40 3894 3.10
Balrampur Chini 60.35 Buy Above 61 58.25 4.51 67 9.84
Bata 917.90 Buy Above 922 899.00 2.49 970 5.21
BHEL 225.15 Buy Above 226 222.00 1.77 235 3.98
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.
Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support
Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
BSE SENSEX 17198 17144 17262 17326 17507 17080 16963 16782
S&P CNX NIFTY 5216 5200 5236 5256 5311 5180 5145 5089
NIFTY AUG. FUT. 5241 5196 5292 5343 5489 5145 5049 4902
Stocks To Watch Out Today
AB Nuvo, BoI, Bharat Forge, Dish TV, IDFC, LIC Hsg; M&M, McLeod Russel, RPower, Sterlite, Tata Power, Tata Steel, ZEEL
Apollo Tyre, Asian Paints, Bajaj Hind; Balrampur Chini, Bata, BHEL, Colgate, Dabur, Dr. Reddys, FT, HOECL, IVRCL, MRF,
MTNL, NTPC, OFSS, Raymond, Tata Coffee, Tata Global, Titan, United Spirits, Wipro
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
th
The Ruby, 9 Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
www.keynotecapitals.com
3. NOTE:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average
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www.keynotecapitals.com