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The 2016 Election:
American Foreign and Economic
Policy Views
Bruce Stokes
Director, Global Economic Attitudes Stockholm, January 2016
January 14, 2016 2
Pew Research Center
• Established 1996
• Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts, Foundations
• Non-profit, non-partisan, non-advocacy fact tank in Washington
• Since 2002, we have surveyed in 85 countries
• www.pewresearch.org
• @pewresearch
www.pewresearch.org
THE HORSE RACE
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 3
Republicans Want a Conservative Nominee,
Democrats Prefer a Moderate
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 4
Would rather see their party nominate someone for president in 2016 who is …
Very
conservative Conservative Moderate Liberal
Very
Liberal
% % % % %
Republican
2007 15 45 30 9 1
2015 18 42 32 6 1
Democrat
2007 3 16 48 23 7
2015 6 15 40 26 10
Source: Gallup survey, Dec 2-6, 2015.
Democrats More Positive on the State of U.S. Economy
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 5
Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015.
Economic conditions in the country today are excellent/good
8 14
21
17
39 38
7
27
22
0
50
2012 2013 2014 2015
Republican Democrat Independent
%
But Higher Campaign Interest Among Republicans
Than at the Same Point in 2008
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 6
Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015.
74%
86
71%
75
66%
72
Dec 2007 Dec 2015
Republican Democrat Independent
Given a lot/some thought to the candidates
STRATEGIC CONCERNS
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 7
Growing Share of Americans Cite Terrorism and Foreign Issues as the
Most Important Problems Facing the U.S.
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 8
Note: Question was open-ended – no specific response options were provided.
Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015.
Most important problem facing the country today
Dec
2014
Dec
2015 Change
% %
Terrorism 1 18 +17
Economy (general) 14 9 -5
Defense/National security 2 8 +6
Immigration 12 7 -5
Unemployment 10 7 -3
ISIS/War in Iraq/War in Syria 2 7 +5
Dissatisfaction with government, Obama 10 6 -4
Gun control/Too many guns/ Mass shootings 1 5 +4
Political gridlock/division 8 5 -3
NET: Foreign/International 9 32 +23
NET: Economic issues 34 23 -11
Partisan Divide on International Concerns: More Republicans
Than Democrats See Terrorism, Defense as Top Problems
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 9
Note: Question was open-ended – no specific response options were provided.
Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015.
Most important problem facing the country today
Dem Ind Rep
Rep-Dem
diff
% % %
Defense/National security 5 6 16 R+11
Immigration 3 7 14 R+11
Terrorism 16 18 24 R+8
ISIS/War in Iraq/War in Syria 4 8 8 R+4
Economy (general) 6 12 7 R+1
Dissatisfaction with government, Obama 5 6 4 D+1
Gun control/Too many guns/Mass shootings 5 6 4 D+1
Unemployment 7 8 4 D+3
Political gridlock/Division 8 4 2 D+6
NET: Foreign/International 24 32 42 R+18
NET: Economic issues 20 25 21 D-1
ISIS Tops Public’s International Threat List by Large Margin
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 10
*August 2014 survey asked about ‘growing tension between Russia and its neighbors.’
Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015.
__ is a major threat to the well-being of the United States
83%
62
59
49
49
43
42
67%
59
57
48
48
48
53
ISIS
Iran's nuclear program
North Korea's nuclear program
China's emergence as a world power
Global climate change
Israeli-Palestinian conflict
Growing authoritatianism in Russia*
Dec 2015 Aug 2014
Republicans More Concerned About a Range
of International Issues, but Not Climate Change
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 11
*August 2014 survey asked about ‘growing tension between Russia and its neighbors.’
Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015.
__ is a major threat to the well-being of the United States
93%
79
70
62
56
50
22
79%
52
57
44
38
40
73
ISIS
Iran's nuclear program
North Korea's nuclear program
China's emergence as a world power
Isreali-Palestinian conflict
Growing authoritatianism in Russia*
Global climate change
Republican Democrat
Public Favors GOP on Terrorism, Democrats on Climate Change
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 12
Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015.
Which party could do a better job dealing with …
34%
37
37
40
46
53
46%
43
42
42
32
30
Terrorist threat at home
Gun control
Economy
Immigration
Global climate change
Environment
Republican PartyDemocratic Party
R+12
R+6
R+5
D+14
D+23
R+2
DEALING WITH TERRORISM
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 13
Republicans Far More Concerned Than Democrats About
Islamic Extremism Abroad and at Home
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 14
Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015.
Very concerned about the rise of …
Republican Democrat Independent
46
37
60 5761
51
82 83
44
29
51 53
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Islamic extremism around the world
43
36
50 49
59
54
71
65
46
24
46
38
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Islamic extremism in the U.S.
Most Republicans Say Government Anti-Terror
Policies Haven’t Gone Far Enough
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 15
Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015.
Gov’t anti-terrorism policies have not gone far enough to adequately protect the country
55
71
47
54
46
49
0
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Republican Democrat Independent%
Few Believe Current Military Effort in Iraq and Syria Is Going Well
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 16
Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015.
U.S. military campaign against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria is going …
58%
62
58
58
35%
30
36
34
Dec 2015
July 2015
Feb 2015
Oct 2014
Not too/at all well Very/Fairly well
But Most Americans Continue to Support U.S. Military
Campaign Against ISIS
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 17
Note: September 2014 survey asked about Barack Obama’s plan for a military campaign against militants in Iraq and Syria. August 2014 survey
asked about U.S. airstrikes against militants in Iraq only.
Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015.
__ of the U.S. military campaign against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria
54 53
57
63 63 64
31 29
33 30
26 28
0
100
Approve
Disapprove
Dec
2015
July
2015
Feb
2015
Oct
2014
%
Aug
2014
Sept
2014
Most Republicans Favor Sending U.S. Ground Troops to Iraq and Syria
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 18
Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015.
__ the U.S. sending ground troops to fight Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria
47%
66
48
33
47%
28
47
64
6%
5
5
4
TOTAL
Republican
Independent
Democrat
Favor Oppose Don't know
And the Public Is Optimistic About ISIS Fight in Long-Term
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 19
Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015.
U.S. and its allies will __ in their military campaign against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria
36%
27
55%
66
July 2015 December 2015
Definitely/Probably fail Definitely/Probably succeed
NATO AND RUSSIA
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 20
January 14, 2016 21www.pewresearch.org
NATO Support Steady in U.S.
Favorable view of NATO
2009 2011 2013 2015
09-15
Change
13-15
Change
% % % %
U.S. 53 54 49 49 -4 0
Canada — — 57 56 — -1
France 71 70 58 64 -7 +6
Germany 73 60 59 55 -18 -4
Italy 64 — 60 64 0 +4
Poland 75 72 64 74 -1 +10
Spain 56 62 42 47 -9 +5
UK 63 63 59 60 -3 +1
Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
January 14, 2016 22www.pewresearch.org
Americans More Ready Than Europeans
to Use Force to Defend NATO Allies
If Russia got into a serious military conflict with one of its neighboring countries that is our NATO ally,
do you think our country should use military force to defend that country?
56%
53
48
U.S.
Canada
EU median
Note: EU median includes France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK.
Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
January 14, 2016 23www.pewresearch.org
… But Deep U.S. Partisan Divide on Russia-Ukraine
Democrats Republicans Diff
% %
U.S. should use military force to defend
NATO ally against Russia
47 69 +22
Support for NATO sending arms to the
Ukrainian gov’t
39 60 +21
Increase economic sanctions on Russia 23 40 +17
Support for Ukraine becoming a NATO
member 59 71 +12
Russia is a major military threat to its
neighbors 56 67 +11
Russia is to blame for violence in eastern
Ukraine 39 50 +11
Support for Western countries providing
economic aid to Ukraine 60 69 +9
Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
CHINA
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 24
January 14, 2016 25www.pewresearch.org
China Seen Unfavorably by More Than Half of Americans
U.S. views of China
43
52
42
39
50 49 51
40
37 35
38
35
29
39
42
38 36 36
40
52
55 54
0
80
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Favorable
Unfavorable
%
Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
January 14, 2016 26www.pewresearch.org
Republicans and Older Americans Most Critical of China
U.S. views of China
54%
63
50
51
39
51
64
38%
27
42
42
55
41
27
TOTAL
Republican
Independent
Democrat
18-29
30-49
50+
FavorableUnfavorable
Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
January 14, 2016 27www.pewresearch.org
And Republicans More Concerned Than
Democrats About Most China-Related Issues
__ is a very serious problem
Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
January 14, 2016 28www.pewresearch.org
Moreover, A Partisan Divide Over the Asia Pivot
Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
THE OBAMA REFERENDUM
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 29
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 30
Source: NBC/WSJ survey, Dec 6-9, 2015.
Majority of Americans Disapprove of
Obama’s Handling of Foreign Policy
__ of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling foreign policy
49 48
52 52
44
37 37
42 44 41 40
48
55 57
0
100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Approve
Disapprove
%
Majority Say Obama Is “Not Tough Enough” on Foreign Policy
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 31
Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015.
When it comes to foreign policy and national security Barack Obama is …
June
2009
April
2010
Sept
2012
Nov
2013
Aug
2014
Jan
2015
July
2015
Dec
2015
% % % % % % % %
Too tough 2 2 2 5 3 5 4 2
Not tough enough 38 47 41 51 54 55 53 58
About right 51 41 42 37 36 37 37 34
Don’t know 8 10 15 6 7 3 3 6
And Criticism of Obama’s Toughness Is a Partisan Affair
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 32
Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015.
Too
tough
Not tough
enough
About
right
Don’t
know
% % % %
TOTAL 2 58 34 6
Republican 1 84 9 6
Conservative 1 89 4 5
Moderate/Liberal 1 72 19 7
Independent 3 61 30 6
Democrat 2 35 58 5
Conservative/Moderate 3 45 47 6
Liberal 2 26 69 3
When it comes to foreign policy and national security Barack Obama is …
ECONOMIC ENGAGEMENT
January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 33
January 14, 2016 34www.pewresearch.org
Relative to Other Issues, Trade Ranks Near the Bottom of
Americans’ Concerns and Always Has
Top priority for the president and Congress
*Before 2014, question asked about ‘illegal immigration.’
Source: Pew Research Center survey, Jan 7-11, 2015.
--Bush-- -------------------------------------------Obama-------------------------------------------
2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
% % % % % % % %
Defending against terrorism 80 76 80 73 69 71 73 76
Strengthening nation’s economy 68 85 83 87 86 86 80 75
Reducing the budget deficit 53 53 60 64 69 72 63 64
Dealing with immigration* 55 41 40 46 39 39 40 52
Protecting the environment 57 41 44 40 43 52 49 51
Dealing with moral breakdown in
country
47 45 45 43 44 40 39 48
Dealing with global warming 38 30 28 26 25 28 29 38
Dealing with global trade issues 34 31 32 34 38 31 28 30
January 14, 2016 35www.pewresearch.org
Americans Say Trade Is Good for the Country
Growing trade and business ties with other countries are a good thing
Note: 14 country median based on countries surveyed in 2002, 2007-2010 and 2014. U.S. not included in median.
Source: Spring 2014 Global Attitudes survey.
78
59
53
65 66
68
83
78
80 81
84
76
40
100
2002 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
14 country median
U.S.
%
January 14, 2016 36www.pewresearch.org
Yet Few Think Trade Deals Boost the Economy
Free trade agreements …
Note: “Other” and “Don’t know” responses not shown.
Source: Pew Research Center survey, May 12-18, 2015.
25%
19
31
42% 43
34
2009 2010 2015
Make
economy
grow
Slow
economy
down
18% 24 25
Don't make
a difference
11 8 11
49
45 46
2009 2010 2015
Make
wages
higher
Make
wages
lower
24 34 33
Don't make
a difference
13
8
17
53 55
46
2009 2010 2015
Create
jobs
Lead
to job
losses
19 24 28
Don't make
a difference
January 14, 2016 37www.pewresearch.org
Despite Such Skepticism, Half of Americans Support TPP
TPP will be __ for the U.S.
49%
13%
9%
29%
Don't
know
Good thing
Bad thing
Haven't heard enough/
Neither (VOL)
Question wording: “The United States is negotiating a free-trade agreement with countries in the Asia-Pacific region called the Trans-Pacific
Partnership. Do you think this trade agreement would be a good thing for our country or a bad thing?”
Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
January 14, 2016 38www.pewresearch.org
And Half Back TTIP
TTIP will be a __ for our country
50%
53
21%
20
17%
16
2015
2014
Good thing Bad thing Haven't heard enough/Neither (VOL)
Question wording: “As you may know, the United States and the European Union are negotiating a free-trade agreement called the
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, or TTIP. Do you think this trade agreement will be a good thing for our country or a bad thing?”
Source: 2015 Pew Research Center survey.
January 14, 2016 39www.pewresearch.org
A Significant Partisan Divide Exists on Both TPP and TTIP
__ would be a good thing for the U.S.
Republican Democrat
Dem-Rep
Diff
% %
TPP 43 51 +8
TTIP 45 59 +14
Source: 2015 Pew Research Center survey.
January 14, 2016 40
All Pew Research Center reports and data are
available online at www.pewresearch.org
www.pewresearch.org

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The 2016 election american foreign and economic policy views

  • 1. The 2016 Election: American Foreign and Economic Policy Views Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes Stockholm, January 2016
  • 2. January 14, 2016 2 Pew Research Center • Established 1996 • Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts, Foundations • Non-profit, non-partisan, non-advocacy fact tank in Washington • Since 2002, we have surveyed in 85 countries • www.pewresearch.org • @pewresearch www.pewresearch.org
  • 3. THE HORSE RACE January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 3
  • 4. Republicans Want a Conservative Nominee, Democrats Prefer a Moderate January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 4 Would rather see their party nominate someone for president in 2016 who is … Very conservative Conservative Moderate Liberal Very Liberal % % % % % Republican 2007 15 45 30 9 1 2015 18 42 32 6 1 Democrat 2007 3 16 48 23 7 2015 6 15 40 26 10 Source: Gallup survey, Dec 2-6, 2015.
  • 5. Democrats More Positive on the State of U.S. Economy January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 5 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. Economic conditions in the country today are excellent/good 8 14 21 17 39 38 7 27 22 0 50 2012 2013 2014 2015 Republican Democrat Independent %
  • 6. But Higher Campaign Interest Among Republicans Than at the Same Point in 2008 January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 6 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. 74% 86 71% 75 66% 72 Dec 2007 Dec 2015 Republican Democrat Independent Given a lot/some thought to the candidates
  • 7. STRATEGIC CONCERNS January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 7
  • 8. Growing Share of Americans Cite Terrorism and Foreign Issues as the Most Important Problems Facing the U.S. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 8 Note: Question was open-ended – no specific response options were provided. Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. Most important problem facing the country today Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Change % % Terrorism 1 18 +17 Economy (general) 14 9 -5 Defense/National security 2 8 +6 Immigration 12 7 -5 Unemployment 10 7 -3 ISIS/War in Iraq/War in Syria 2 7 +5 Dissatisfaction with government, Obama 10 6 -4 Gun control/Too many guns/ Mass shootings 1 5 +4 Political gridlock/division 8 5 -3 NET: Foreign/International 9 32 +23 NET: Economic issues 34 23 -11
  • 9. Partisan Divide on International Concerns: More Republicans Than Democrats See Terrorism, Defense as Top Problems January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 9 Note: Question was open-ended – no specific response options were provided. Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. Most important problem facing the country today Dem Ind Rep Rep-Dem diff % % % Defense/National security 5 6 16 R+11 Immigration 3 7 14 R+11 Terrorism 16 18 24 R+8 ISIS/War in Iraq/War in Syria 4 8 8 R+4 Economy (general) 6 12 7 R+1 Dissatisfaction with government, Obama 5 6 4 D+1 Gun control/Too many guns/Mass shootings 5 6 4 D+1 Unemployment 7 8 4 D+3 Political gridlock/Division 8 4 2 D+6 NET: Foreign/International 24 32 42 R+18 NET: Economic issues 20 25 21 D-1
  • 10. ISIS Tops Public’s International Threat List by Large Margin January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 10 *August 2014 survey asked about ‘growing tension between Russia and its neighbors.’ Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. __ is a major threat to the well-being of the United States 83% 62 59 49 49 43 42 67% 59 57 48 48 48 53 ISIS Iran's nuclear program North Korea's nuclear program China's emergence as a world power Global climate change Israeli-Palestinian conflict Growing authoritatianism in Russia* Dec 2015 Aug 2014
  • 11. Republicans More Concerned About a Range of International Issues, but Not Climate Change January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 11 *August 2014 survey asked about ‘growing tension between Russia and its neighbors.’ Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. __ is a major threat to the well-being of the United States 93% 79 70 62 56 50 22 79% 52 57 44 38 40 73 ISIS Iran's nuclear program North Korea's nuclear program China's emergence as a world power Isreali-Palestinian conflict Growing authoritatianism in Russia* Global climate change Republican Democrat
  • 12. Public Favors GOP on Terrorism, Democrats on Climate Change January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 12 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. Which party could do a better job dealing with … 34% 37 37 40 46 53 46% 43 42 42 32 30 Terrorist threat at home Gun control Economy Immigration Global climate change Environment Republican PartyDemocratic Party R+12 R+6 R+5 D+14 D+23 R+2
  • 13. DEALING WITH TERRORISM January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 13
  • 14. Republicans Far More Concerned Than Democrats About Islamic Extremism Abroad and at Home January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 14 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. Very concerned about the rise of … Republican Democrat Independent 46 37 60 5761 51 82 83 44 29 51 53 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Islamic extremism around the world 43 36 50 49 59 54 71 65 46 24 46 38 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Islamic extremism in the U.S.
  • 15. Most Republicans Say Government Anti-Terror Policies Haven’t Gone Far Enough January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 15 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. Gov’t anti-terrorism policies have not gone far enough to adequately protect the country 55 71 47 54 46 49 0 100 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Republican Democrat Independent%
  • 16. Few Believe Current Military Effort in Iraq and Syria Is Going Well January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 16 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. U.S. military campaign against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria is going … 58% 62 58 58 35% 30 36 34 Dec 2015 July 2015 Feb 2015 Oct 2014 Not too/at all well Very/Fairly well
  • 17. But Most Americans Continue to Support U.S. Military Campaign Against ISIS January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 17 Note: September 2014 survey asked about Barack Obama’s plan for a military campaign against militants in Iraq and Syria. August 2014 survey asked about U.S. airstrikes against militants in Iraq only. Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. __ of the U.S. military campaign against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria 54 53 57 63 63 64 31 29 33 30 26 28 0 100 Approve Disapprove Dec 2015 July 2015 Feb 2015 Oct 2014 % Aug 2014 Sept 2014
  • 18. Most Republicans Favor Sending U.S. Ground Troops to Iraq and Syria January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 18 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. __ the U.S. sending ground troops to fight Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria 47% 66 48 33 47% 28 47 64 6% 5 5 4 TOTAL Republican Independent Democrat Favor Oppose Don't know
  • 19. And the Public Is Optimistic About ISIS Fight in Long-Term January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 19 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. U.S. and its allies will __ in their military campaign against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria 36% 27 55% 66 July 2015 December 2015 Definitely/Probably fail Definitely/Probably succeed
  • 20. NATO AND RUSSIA January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 20
  • 21. January 14, 2016 21www.pewresearch.org NATO Support Steady in U.S. Favorable view of NATO 2009 2011 2013 2015 09-15 Change 13-15 Change % % % % U.S. 53 54 49 49 -4 0 Canada — — 57 56 — -1 France 71 70 58 64 -7 +6 Germany 73 60 59 55 -18 -4 Italy 64 — 60 64 0 +4 Poland 75 72 64 74 -1 +10 Spain 56 62 42 47 -9 +5 UK 63 63 59 60 -3 +1 Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
  • 22. January 14, 2016 22www.pewresearch.org Americans More Ready Than Europeans to Use Force to Defend NATO Allies If Russia got into a serious military conflict with one of its neighboring countries that is our NATO ally, do you think our country should use military force to defend that country? 56% 53 48 U.S. Canada EU median Note: EU median includes France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
  • 23. January 14, 2016 23www.pewresearch.org … But Deep U.S. Partisan Divide on Russia-Ukraine Democrats Republicans Diff % % U.S. should use military force to defend NATO ally against Russia 47 69 +22 Support for NATO sending arms to the Ukrainian gov’t 39 60 +21 Increase economic sanctions on Russia 23 40 +17 Support for Ukraine becoming a NATO member 59 71 +12 Russia is a major military threat to its neighbors 56 67 +11 Russia is to blame for violence in eastern Ukraine 39 50 +11 Support for Western countries providing economic aid to Ukraine 60 69 +9 Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
  • 24. CHINA January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 24
  • 25. January 14, 2016 25www.pewresearch.org China Seen Unfavorably by More Than Half of Americans U.S. views of China 43 52 42 39 50 49 51 40 37 35 38 35 29 39 42 38 36 36 40 52 55 54 0 80 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Favorable Unfavorable % Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
  • 26. January 14, 2016 26www.pewresearch.org Republicans and Older Americans Most Critical of China U.S. views of China 54% 63 50 51 39 51 64 38% 27 42 42 55 41 27 TOTAL Republican Independent Democrat 18-29 30-49 50+ FavorableUnfavorable Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
  • 27. January 14, 2016 27www.pewresearch.org And Republicans More Concerned Than Democrats About Most China-Related Issues __ is a very serious problem Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
  • 28. January 14, 2016 28www.pewresearch.org Moreover, A Partisan Divide Over the Asia Pivot Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
  • 29. THE OBAMA REFERENDUM January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 29
  • 30. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 30 Source: NBC/WSJ survey, Dec 6-9, 2015. Majority of Americans Disapprove of Obama’s Handling of Foreign Policy __ of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling foreign policy 49 48 52 52 44 37 37 42 44 41 40 48 55 57 0 100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Approve Disapprove %
  • 31. Majority Say Obama Is “Not Tough Enough” on Foreign Policy January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 31 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. When it comes to foreign policy and national security Barack Obama is … June 2009 April 2010 Sept 2012 Nov 2013 Aug 2014 Jan 2015 July 2015 Dec 2015 % % % % % % % % Too tough 2 2 2 5 3 5 4 2 Not tough enough 38 47 41 51 54 55 53 58 About right 51 41 42 37 36 37 37 34 Don’t know 8 10 15 6 7 3 3 6
  • 32. And Criticism of Obama’s Toughness Is a Partisan Affair January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 32 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. Too tough Not tough enough About right Don’t know % % % % TOTAL 2 58 34 6 Republican 1 84 9 6 Conservative 1 89 4 5 Moderate/Liberal 1 72 19 7 Independent 3 61 30 6 Democrat 2 35 58 5 Conservative/Moderate 3 45 47 6 Liberal 2 26 69 3 When it comes to foreign policy and national security Barack Obama is …
  • 33. ECONOMIC ENGAGEMENT January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 33
  • 34. January 14, 2016 34www.pewresearch.org Relative to Other Issues, Trade Ranks Near the Bottom of Americans’ Concerns and Always Has Top priority for the president and Congress *Before 2014, question asked about ‘illegal immigration.’ Source: Pew Research Center survey, Jan 7-11, 2015. --Bush-- -------------------------------------------Obama------------------------------------------- 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % % % % % % % % Defending against terrorism 80 76 80 73 69 71 73 76 Strengthening nation’s economy 68 85 83 87 86 86 80 75 Reducing the budget deficit 53 53 60 64 69 72 63 64 Dealing with immigration* 55 41 40 46 39 39 40 52 Protecting the environment 57 41 44 40 43 52 49 51 Dealing with moral breakdown in country 47 45 45 43 44 40 39 48 Dealing with global warming 38 30 28 26 25 28 29 38 Dealing with global trade issues 34 31 32 34 38 31 28 30
  • 35. January 14, 2016 35www.pewresearch.org Americans Say Trade Is Good for the Country Growing trade and business ties with other countries are a good thing Note: 14 country median based on countries surveyed in 2002, 2007-2010 and 2014. U.S. not included in median. Source: Spring 2014 Global Attitudes survey. 78 59 53 65 66 68 83 78 80 81 84 76 40 100 2002 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 14 country median U.S. %
  • 36. January 14, 2016 36www.pewresearch.org Yet Few Think Trade Deals Boost the Economy Free trade agreements … Note: “Other” and “Don’t know” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center survey, May 12-18, 2015. 25% 19 31 42% 43 34 2009 2010 2015 Make economy grow Slow economy down 18% 24 25 Don't make a difference 11 8 11 49 45 46 2009 2010 2015 Make wages higher Make wages lower 24 34 33 Don't make a difference 13 8 17 53 55 46 2009 2010 2015 Create jobs Lead to job losses 19 24 28 Don't make a difference
  • 37. January 14, 2016 37www.pewresearch.org Despite Such Skepticism, Half of Americans Support TPP TPP will be __ for the U.S. 49% 13% 9% 29% Don't know Good thing Bad thing Haven't heard enough/ Neither (VOL) Question wording: “The United States is negotiating a free-trade agreement with countries in the Asia-Pacific region called the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Do you think this trade agreement would be a good thing for our country or a bad thing?” Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
  • 38. January 14, 2016 38www.pewresearch.org And Half Back TTIP TTIP will be a __ for our country 50% 53 21% 20 17% 16 2015 2014 Good thing Bad thing Haven't heard enough/Neither (VOL) Question wording: “As you may know, the United States and the European Union are negotiating a free-trade agreement called the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, or TTIP. Do you think this trade agreement will be a good thing for our country or a bad thing?” Source: 2015 Pew Research Center survey.
  • 39. January 14, 2016 39www.pewresearch.org A Significant Partisan Divide Exists on Both TPP and TTIP __ would be a good thing for the U.S. Republican Democrat Dem-Rep Diff % % TPP 43 51 +8 TTIP 45 59 +14 Source: 2015 Pew Research Center survey.
  • 40. January 14, 2016 40 All Pew Research Center reports and data are available online at www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org