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Public Opinion Landscape: Brexit

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As the UK nears a vote on whether to remain in or leave the EU, GPG takes a look at publicly-released polls out of the UK along with American and European views on the EU and various issues.

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Public Opinion Landscape: Brexit

  1. 1. International Affairs: Brexit Public Opinion Landscape JUNE 2016
  2. 2. PAGE 2 TA B L E O F C O N T ENTS Slide American Views Toward Europe and the EU 3 European Views Toward the U.S. and the EU 8 American & European Views 12 Brexit 17
  3. 3. A m e r i c a n V i e w s T o w a r d E u r o p e a n d t h e E U
  4. 4. Source: Gallup Country Ratings, February 3-7, 2016 PAGE 4 C O U N TRI ES A M E R IC ANS H AV E A FAV O RAB LE O P I N IO N O F 53% 54% 59% 71% 73% 75% 82% 85% 87% 90% 93% 39% 40% 38% 24% 18% 18% 12% 10% 8% 4% 7% Egypt Cuba Mexico Israel Brazil India Japan Germany France Great Britain Canada Favorable Unfavorable
  5. 5. Source: Gallup Country Ratings, February 3-7, 2016 PAGE 5 C O U N TRI ES A M E R IC ANS H AV E A U N FAVOR ABLE O P I NI ON O F 8% 12% 14% 15% 15% 19% 21% 30% 37% 44% 86% 80% 79% 79% 78% 68% 70% 65% 55% 52% North Korea Syria Iran Iraq Afganistan Palestinian Authority Pakistan Russia Saudi Arabia China Favorable Unfavorable
  6. 6. PAGE 6 A M E R IC AN V I E W S O F T H E E U R O P EAN U N I O N M O R E P O S IT IVE T H A N N E G AT IVE 53% 39% 47% 56% 57% 55% 50% 50% 58% 53% 14% 26% 22% 23% 20% 22% 21% 26% 26% 27% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % saying they have a _______ view of the EU… Source: Pew Research Center Poll, April 4-24, 2016 Unfavorable Favorable
  7. 7. PAGE 7 A M E R IC ANS V I E W E U R OP EAN T I E S A S M O R E I M P O RTANT T H A N A S I A N T I E S 50% 49% 44% 37% 50% 52% 31% 31% 34% 47% 35% 32% Source: Pew Research Center Poll, April 4-24, 2016 % saying ties to the nations of ________ are most importantto the U.S…. Asia Europe
  8. 8. E u r o p e a n V i e w s T o w a r d t h e U . S . a n d t h e E U
  9. 9. PAGE 9 H O W E U R O PE ANS S E E T H E U . S . , O T H ER P O T ENT IAL T H R EAT S 23% 26% 28% 31% 33% 34% 34% 34% 39% 71% Hungary Greece UK Germany Netherlands Sweden France Italy Spain Poland % saying each is a major threat to their country Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey Tensions with Russia 23% 25% 31% 28% 21% 18% 43% 47% 56% 47% 23% 43% 24% 25% 19% 12% 28% 21% 42% 25% China’s emergence as a world power U.S. power and influence
  10. 10. PAGE 10 M O S T E U R OPE ANS S E E U . S . A S M O R E I M P O RTANT T H A N A S I A 41% 43% 23% 25% 30% 38% 34% 31% 19% 13% 43% 49% 50% 51% 53% 56% 56% 57% 60% 60% Germany Sweden Hungary Greece UK France Netherlands Spain Italy Poland Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey Which area do you think is more important to Europe? Asia U.S.
  11. 11. PAGE 11 E U FAV O RAB ILI TY VA R I ES W I D E LY I N E U R O P E 27% 38% 44% 47% 50% 51% 54% 58% 61% 72% 71% 61% 48% 49% 48% 46% 44% 39% 37% 22% Greece France UK Spain Germany Netherlands Sweden Italy Hungary Poland Favorable UnfavorableViews of EU? Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey
  12. 12. A m e r i c a n & E u r o p e a n V i e w s
  13. 13. PAGE 13 A M E R IC ANS A N D E U R O PE ANS A G R EE I S I S I S T O P T H R EAT 34% 30% 66% 49% 60% 54% 76% 42% 50% 53% 55% 67% 72% 80% Tensionswith Russia China's emergence as a world power Global climate change Large number ofrefugees leaving Iraq/Syria Global economic instability Cyberattacks from other countries ISIS % saying each is a major threat to their country U.S. Europe median Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. U.S. survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.
  14. 14. PAGE 14 A M E R IC AN A N D E U R O PEA N V I E W S O N G L O B A L E N G A GEM ENT Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey, U.S. Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016 40% 40% 45% 51% 52% 60% 65% 67% 77% 83% Germany Spain Sweden Netherlands UK France Poland Italy Hungary Greece % who say… Country should deal with its own problems 11% 50% 28% 30% 40% 46% 28% 52% 33% 65% 24% 39% 25% 24% 29% 45% 27% 44% 34% 57% Country is less important that it was 10 yearsago Global economic engagement is a bad thing 57%U.S. 46% 49%
  15. 15. PAGE 15 A M E R IC ANS, M A N Y E U R OP EAN S WA N T T O F O C U S O N O W N C O U N TRY’ S P R O B LEM S 40% 40% 45% 51% 52% 60% 65% 67% 77% 83% 55% 53% 51% 43% 43% 36% 21% 22% 18% 12% Spain Germany Sweden Netherlands UK France Poland Italy Hungary Greece Our country should… Deal with its own problems and let other countries deal with their own problems Help other countries deal with their problems 57% 37%U.S. Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey, U.S. Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016
  16. 16. PAGE 16 I N G E N E RA L, A M E R IC ANS M O R E N E G ATI VE T O WAR D G L O BA L E C O N OMI C E N G A GEME NT 57% 44% 27% 45% 39% 34% 29% 24% 25% 24% 35% 44% 48% 51% 56% 56% 64% 70% 71% 72% Greece Italy Poland France Spain Hungary UK Germany Sweden Netherlands Global economic engagement is a _____ Bad thing because it lowers wages and costs jobs Good thing because it creates new markets, growth 49% 44%U.S. Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey, U.S. Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016
  17. 17. B R E X I T
  18. 18. Source: Financial Times UK’s EU referendum Brexit poll tracker. Updated June 22th PAGE 18 S U P P ORT F O R B R E X IT G R O W S A S W E N E A R V O T E I N U K 40% 44% 42% 47% 48% 49% 45% 47% 45% 44% 44% 47% 44% 43% 43% 43% 44% 44% 38% 39% 38% 36% 35% 33% 37% 39% 40% 40% 41% 40% 41% 40% 40% 41% 42% 45% Leave Remain Remain % Leave % Undecided % Date Pollster 45 44 11 20-Jun-16 Survation 53 46 2 19-Jun-16 ORB 42 44 13 19-Jun-16 YouGov 45 42 13 18-Jun-16 Survation 44 44 12 17-Jun-16 Opinium 42 44 14 17-Jun-16 YouGov 44 43 13 16-Jun-16 YouGov LATEST POLLS
  19. 19. Source: Financial Times UK’s EU referendum Brexit poll tracker. Updated June 22th PAGE 19 V O L ATI LIT Y I N R E C E NT P O L L I NG 42% 44% 38% 48% 48% 52% 41% 47% 48% 45% 43% 43% 48% 45% 40% 46% 41% 35% 41% 42% 43% 44% 44% 55% 47% 44% 45% 44% 5/3 5/8 5/13 5/18 5/23 5/28 6/2 6/7 6/12 6/17 Leave Remain
  20. 20. “ R E M AI N” L E A DS I N B E T T I NG M A R KE TS Remain (1/4) 57% Leave (3/1) 43% MostPopular Bets Oddschecker Brexit Referendum Betting Odds June 21
  21. 21. C O N S ID ERATI ONS D R I VI NG V O T I NG B E H AVIO RS 30% 19% 29% 4% 9% 9% Which is likely to be better for jobs, investment and the economy generally Which is likely to help us deal better with theissue of immigration Which is likely to strike a better balance betweenBritain's right to act independently,and the appropriatelevel of co-operation with other countries Which is likely to maximise Britain's influence in the world Something else None of these Source: YouGov/Times Survey 6/17-6/19 Which ONEofthe followingwill be the mostimportantto you in decidinghowto vote in the referendum?
  22. 22. W H Y B R I T ONS M I G H T WA N T T O L E AV E More immigration into Britain, 4% Less immigration into Britain 54% Would make no difference to the amount of immigration 30% Don't know 12% Do you think there would be more or less immigration into Britain if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference? Source: YouGov/Times Survey 6/17-6/19 Good for NHS 34% Bad for NHS 23% Would make no difference to the NHS 26% Don't know 17% Do you think it would have a good or bad effect on theNHS if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference?
  23. 23. W H Y B R I T ONS M I G H T WA N T T O R E M A I N Better off 22% Worse off 37% Would make no real difference to the British economy 25% Don't know 15% Do you think Britain would be economically better or worse off if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference? Source: YouGov/Times Survey 6/17-6/19 Good for jobs 21% Bad for jobs 36% Would make no difference to British jobs 28% Don't know 16% Do you think it would have a good or bad effect on British jobs if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference?
  24. 24. PAGE 24 E U R O PE ANS O V E R WHEL MING LY A G R EE T H AT U K D E PART URE W O U L D H U R T T H E E U 57% 62% 65% 66% 70% 70% 74% 75% 89% 23% 32% 14% 11% 16% 10% 16% 17% 8% Italy France Greece Poland Spain Hungary Germany Netherlands Sweden Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey If the UK were to leave the EuropeanUnion, this would be a ________ for the EU? Bad thing Good thing
  25. 25. PAGE 25 E U R O PE AN V I E W S A B O U T T H E F U T U RE O F T H E E U 35% 38% 39% 39% 40% 43% 44% 47% 65% 68% 27% 39% 21% 26% 35% 25% 29% 38% 25% 18% 30% 9% 34% 21% 17% 26% 24% 13% 6% 8% Spain Poland France Italy Hungary Germany Netherlands Sweden UK Greece Some powers should be returned to national govts Division of powers should remain the same National govts should transfer more powers to EU Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey Which statement best describes your views aboutthe future ofthe EuropeanUnion?
  26. 26. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com) G P G R e s e a r c h G P G h a s a f u l l - s e r v i c e r e s e a r c h t e a m o f f e r i n g a f u l l c o m p l e m e n t o f q u a l i t a t i ve a n d q u a n t i t a t i ve p u b l i c o p i n i o n , a s w e l l a s d i g i t a l , r e s e a r c h s e r v i c e s . W e u s e r e s e a r c h t o i n f o r m m e s s a g e d e v e l o p m e n t a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n s t r a t e g y , a s w e l l a s t o h e l p c l i e n t s a s s e s s a n d m o n i t o r c r i t i c a l i s s u e s a n d t r a c k t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f s t r a t e g i c c o m m u n i c a t i o n c a m p a ig n s . G P G h a s e x t e n s i v e e x p e r i e n c e c o n d u c t i n g r e s e a r c h o n c o m p l e x i s s u e s a n d p o l i t i c a l t o p i c s w i t h d i v e r s e a u d i e n c e s . W e g o b e y o n d t h e s t a n d a r d Q & A , u s i n g i n n o v a t i v e , p r o j e c t i v e t e c h n i q u e s t o u n c o v e r k e y i n s i g h t s. T h e r e s u l t i s a c t i o n a b l e r e s e a r c h t h a t h e l p s s h a p e o u r c l i e n t s ’ m e s s a g i n g a n d s t r a t e g y .

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