J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 6
Election 2016 – A Brief Overview
and Analysis

M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y

PAGE 3
N U M B ER O F A M E R IC ANS W H O V I E W C O U NTRY O N T H E W R O N G
T R A C K I S H I G H ES T S I N CE 2 0 1 2
The percentage of
Americans saying the nation
is heading in the right
direction hasn’t topped 50%
in about a decade.
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 12, 2016
RIGHT DIRECTION 25.2%
WRONG TRACK 65.5%

PAGE 4
A M E R IC ANS A R E D I S S AT ISF IED O R A N G R Y A B O UT T H E WAY
T H I N GS A R E G O I N G I N WA S H I NG TON
Which comes closest to your feelings about theway things are going in Washington–
enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic,dissatisfied but notangry, or angry?
Source: CBS News / NY Times Poll, December 4-8, 2015
31%
53%
12%
1%
Angry
Dissatisfied butnotangry
Satisfied butnotenthusiastic
Enthusiastic
47% 49%
Approve Disapprove
Barack Obama's
Current Job Approval
15%
75%
Approve Disapprove
Congress
Current Job Approval
Source: CBS News
/ NY Times Poll,
January 7-10, 2016
Source: Gallup Poll,
January 4-10, 2016

PAGE 5
P U B L I C’S I S S UE P R I ORI TI ES R E F L ECT S A N AT I ON T H AT F E E L S
L E S S S E C U RE
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, December 6-9,2015
Let me list some issues that havebeen
proposed for the federal government to
address. Please tell me which ONE OR TWO
of these items you think should be the top
priority for the federal government?
National security has
become the top issue on the
public’s mind for the federal
government to address,
overtaking jobs and the
economy.

PAGE 6
D I S T I NCT S P L I T B E T WE EN T H E PA R TIE S O N T H E M O S T
I M P O RTAN T I S S UE
38%
17%
19%
8%
2%
29%
38%
5%
7%
4%
Economy Terrorism Health Care Immigration Tax Policy
Democrats Republicans
Which of these is the single most important issue in your choice for president?
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, December 10-13, 2015

PAGE 7
D I F F E RENCE S I N AT T RI BUT ES V O T E RS A R E L O O K I NG F O R I N
T H E I R PA R TY ’S N O M INE E; D E M O CRATS D E S IR E F O R A L I B E R AL
C A N D ID ATE H A S G R O W N
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015
Democrats Republicans
Shares values 19% 20%
Cares about
needs/problems
28% 13%
Strong leadership 16% 29%
Honest/Trustworthy 14% 21%
Rightexperience 16% 8%
Bestchance ofwinning 6% 7%
Thinking about your party’s nominee for president in 2016,
which of the following is most important to you?
December 2007 December 2015
60% 60%
Republicans /Leaners WhoPrefer
Conservative Presidential Candidate
December 2007 December 2015
30% 36%
Democrats /Leaners Who Prefer
Liberal Presidential Candidate
Source: Gallup Poll, December 2-6, 2015

2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :
R E P U B L I CA N N O M I N A T I ON

PAGE 9
S TA R TED W I T H 1 7 , N O W D O W N T O 1 2 C A N D IDATE S
Dropped Out

PAGE 10
H I G H ER C A M PAI GN I N T E REST A M O N G R E P U BLI CANS T H A N AT
S A M E P O I N T I N ’ 0 8 ;
65%
35%
80% 79%
48%
69%
65%
34%
64%
Dec-15Jan-12Feb-08
% who would describe the
presidential election campaign so far
as “interesting”
Democrat Republican Independent
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, December 8-13, 2015
74%
86%
71%
75%
66%
72%
Dec-07 Dec-15
% giving a lot/some thought to the
candidates
Republican Democrat Independent
+10
-15

PAGE 11
T R U M P S U P PO RT H A S P I C K ED B A C K U P ;
C A R S ON FA LTERS A S C R U Z C L I M BS
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016
12% 14%
9%
9%
7% 6% 5%
6%
5% 6% 6%
8%
13%
19%
11%
8%
6%
9%
10%
15%
11%
5%
15%
31%
28% 28%
34%
37%
10%
8%
14%
17%
21%
14%
8%
June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
2016 Republican Primary Preference
Among RepublicanandRepublicanleaning voters
Bush Cruz Rubio Trump Carson
Candidate Average
Donald Trump 37.0%
Ted Cruz 19.3%
Marco Rubio 11.3%
Ben Carson 7.5%
Jeb Bush 5.0%
Chris Christie 3.2%
Carly Fiorina 2.7%
Rand Paul 2.6%
John Kasich 2.4%
Mike Huckabee 2.2%
Rick Santorum 0.6%
Jim Gilmore 0.0%
HuffPost Pollster Trend
as of January 13, 2016

Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015 PAGE 12
M A J O RI TY O F R E P U B LIC ANS H AVE N’ T M A D E U P T H E I R M I N D S O N
A C A N D IDAT E; J U S T O N E I N F O U R S AY T H E Y D E F I NIT ELY D O N ’ T
WA N T T R U MP
41%
36%
63%
58%
64%
36%
Total Cruz supporter Trump
supporter
Made up Mightchange
Is your mind made up, or do you think you might
change your mind before the primary?
5%
7%
10%
12%
13%
14%
24%
28%
Cruz
Rubio
Christie
Carson
Kasich
Paul
Bush
Trump
Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not
support for the Republican nomination for president?

PAGE 13
R E P U BL ICA NS H AV E M O R E C O N DI FENC E I N T R U M P T H A N O T H E R
C O N T END ERS W H E N I T C O M E S T O T H E E C O N OMY, T E R ROR ISM
Source: CBS News/New York Times Poll, December 4-8, 2015
51%
23%
16%
26%
15%
Donald
Trump
Ben Carson Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Jeb Bush
% Very Confident
How confident are you in the candidate’s ability
to make the right decisions about the economy?
40%
16%
20%
30%
17%
Donald
Trump
Ben Carson Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Jeb Bush
% Very Confident
How confident are you in the candidate’s ability
to handle the threat of terrorism?

PAGE 14
T R U M P A N D C R U Z R U N A C L O S E R A C E I N I O WA W H I L E T R U MP
L E A D S I N N E W H A M P SH IRE
Candidate Average
Donald Trump 29.1%
Marco Rubio 14.2%
Ted Cruz 11.9%
Chris Christie 11.3%
John Kasich 10.5%
Candidate Average
Donald Trump 27.9%
Ted Cruz 27.7%
Marco Rubio 12.7%
Ben Carson 7.6%
Jeb Bush 4.2%
Source: HuffPost Pollster, based on the average of the most recent polls by unique pollsters

2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :
D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N

PAGE 16
C L I N TON O N T O P I N D E M O C RATI C R A C E, B U T S A N DER S H A S
N A R R OWE D H E R L E A D
Candidate Average
Hillary Clinton 52.4%
Bernie Sanders 38.5%
Martin O’Malley 2.4%
HuffPost Pollster Trend
as of January 13, 2016
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016
12%
17%
24% 25%
30%
33%
39%
60% 58%
47% 45%
55% 56%
52%
June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
2016 Democratic Primary Preference
Among registered/leaned Democrats
Sanders Clinton

PAGE 17
M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS H AV E T H E IR M I N D M A D E U P O N
W H I C H C A N D IDAT E T H E Y A R E S U P P ORTI NG
57% 59%
55%
41% 38%
44%
Total Clinton
supporter
Sanders
supporter
Made up Mightchange
Is your mind made up, or do you think you might
change your mind before the primary?
8%
9%
19%
58%
Clinton
Sanders
O'Malley
No one
Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not
support for the Democratic nomination for president?
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015

Source: HuffPost Pollster, based on the average of the most recent polls by unique pollsters PAGE 18
T H E R A C E I S C L O S E B E T W EEN C L I NTON A N D S A N DE RS I N B O T H
I O WA A N D N E W H A M P S HIRE
Candidate Average
Bernie Sanders 49.8%
Hillary Clinton 44.3%
Martin O’Malley 2.7%
Candidate Average
Hillary Clinton 45.9%
Bernie Sanders 42.2%
Martin O’Malley 5.1%

P R E D I C T I O N M A R K E T & W H A T ’ S U P C O M I N G

PAGE 20
T H E P R E D I CTI ON M A R K ETS
Source: PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster
3%
10%
21%
32%
34%
Chris Christie
Jeb Bush
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
PredictWiseChance ofWinningRepublican Nomination
1%
16%
83%
Martin
O'Malley
Bernie
Sanders
Hillary
Clinton
PredictWiseChance ofWinningDemocratic Nomination
As ofJanuary 14th

PAGE 21
A M A J O RIT Y O F A M E R I CANS H AV E WAT CH ED AT L E A S T S O M E O F
T H E P R E S I DEN TIA L D E B ATES, A C O M P LE TE C O N T RAST T O 8
Y E A R S A G O
Source: Pew Research Center, December 8-13, 2015
43%
69%
57%
31%
Dec-07
Dec-15
Yes No
So far, have you watched any of the televised debates between presidential
candidates or haven’t you had a chance to watch any of them?

PAGE 22Source: Washington Post
D E B ATE S C H E DUL E

PAGE 23
E A R LY 2 0 1 6 P R I MA RY & C A U C US C A L E NDA R
Note: All dates tentative and subject to change prior to 2016
Date State
Monday, February 1, 2016 Iowa (caucus)
Tuesday, February 9, 2016 New Hampshire (primary)
Saturday, February 20, 2016 South Carolina (primary)
Tuesday, February 23, 2016 Nevada (caucus)
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
Texas, Georgia, Tennessee,
Alabama,Arkansas
Tuesday, March 15, 2016 Florida (primary)
18 DAYS UNTIL IOWA CAUCUS

PAGE 24
M A J O RI TY O F A M E R I CAN S B E L I EVE T H E 2 0 1 6 C A M PAIGN T O B E
“ I N T E RES TING ,” “ T O O N E G ATI VE, ” A N D “ N O T F O C US ED O N
I M P O RTAN T P O L IC Y D E B ATES .”
Source: Pew Research Center, December 8-13, 2015
26%
67%
Dull Interesting
Would you describe the presidential
campaign as dull or interesting?
54%
39%
Too negative Nottoo negative
34%
58%
Focused on
importantpolicy
debates
Notfocused on
importantpolicy
debates
Would you describe the presidential
campaign as too negative or not?
Would you describe the presidential campaign
as focused on important policy debates or not?

PAGE 25
N E I T HE R F R O NT RUNN ER M E T W I T H A L O T O F E N T H USI ASM;
S O M E WHAT M O R E A N X IE TY A B O U T A T R U MP P R E S ID ENCY T HAN A
C L I N TON O N E
Source: CBS News/New York Times Poll, Dec 4-8, 2015
If Donald Trump is elected as President, what best
describes your feelings about what he will do in office?
If Hillary Clinton is elected as President, what best
describes your feelings about what she will do in office?
Total Rep Dem Ind
Excited 11% 25% 2% 8%
Optimistic,
notexcited
24% 41% 8% 23%
Concerned,
notscared
24% 20% 25% 26%
Scared 40% 13% 63% 41%
Total Rep Dem Ind
Excited 9% 2% 22% 4%
Optimistic,
notexcited
33% 8% 54% 35%
Concerned,
notscared
23% 24% 17% 27%
Scared 34% 65% 6% 32%

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