Multicultural Risk Management

Global Risk Forum Davos 31 May 2010 Multicultural Risk Management

SUMMARY STATEMENT ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Contents ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

To add ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Introduction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Actuaries make financial sense of the future Training in risk, probability and statistics Experts in insurance, pensions, investment and health care Typical actuary jokes: Definition of an actuary – someone who finds accounting too exciting Definition of an extrovert actuary – someone who looks at your shoes when he is talking to you

Where are we now? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Where are we ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

We cannot grow without intensive energy use http://aspo-usa.com/2009proceedings/Dave_Cohen_Oct_12_2009.pdf Graph implies that economic growth without energy growth is not possible.

Impacts of Climate Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],CO 2 e Stabilization level IPCC Temp increase projection Temp. Increase with ESS = 4.5°C Temp. Increase with ESS = 6°C 450ppm ~2°C ~3°C ~4°C 500ppm ~2.5°C ~4°C ~5°C

Climate Sensitivity vs Earth System Sensitivity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Impacts of Climate Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What are the tipping points? From Lenton et al, PNAS 2008, Tipping Elements in the Earth’s Climate System Most vulnerable ? Methane release? Featured BC Projects

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Climate Change and Risk

Risk Management: Insurance company or business

Example excedence curve for the Earth’s climate Since Copenhagen, the line has moved outwards

Risk Management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Xynthia – 2009 France BP – 2010 Gulf of Mexico ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Local Impact Examples ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

BC Project 1: Sunderbans Region ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Example of Embankment Ceding and inundation of saline water

Erosion in Satjelia Region ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Assessment of Risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Project and Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Project 2: Paramo Ecosystem in Colombia 10 million Bogotanos and 80% of their water needs depend on the Paramo ecosystem Impacts of climate change already perceived by inhabitants Anecdotal evidence of climate change impact (e.g. January forest fires)

Project 2: Paramo Ecosystem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Project 3: Go Green Burma ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

How is Local Risk Management different and better ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

How to ensure local risk management ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Multicultural Risk Management

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Multicultural Risk Management

Editor's Notes