Climate change causes rise global risks of hunger, floods and conflicts, warns the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its latest report entitled Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability available on website <http: />. This report states that the catastrophic effects of climate change must take place, for the most part, by inadequate preparation for coping with risks. The IPCC document details the impacts of climate change, future risks and opportunities for the adoption of effective measures to reduce the risks. It concludes that the response to climate change involves making appropriate choices to face the risks in a world that is constantly changing.

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CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE AND COP 21
Fernando Alcoforado *
Climate change causes rise global risks of hunger, floods and conflicts, warns the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its latest report entitled Climate
Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability available on website
<http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/>. This report states that the catastrophic effects of
climate change must take place, for the most part, by inadequate preparation for coping
with risks. The IPCC document details the impacts of climate change, future risks and
opportunities for the adoption of effective measures to reduce the risks. It concludes that
the response to climate change involves making appropriate choices to face the risks in
a world that is constantly changing.
The IPCC report confirms that the effects of climate change caused by man will be
widespread, affecting agriculture, human health, ecosystems, water supplies and some
industries. To decrease these risks, there must be substantial reduction in global
emissions of greenhouse gases that should be obtained along with strategies and actions
to improve preparedness against disasters as well as to reduce exposure to changes
caused by climate events. The melting of the poles and mountain ranges, migration of
species, declining crop yields, increased disease and the increase of extreme events are
some of the factors cited in the IPCC report as evidence of the need for the international
community must make appropriate choices for better adaptation and decrease the
negative effects of global warming.
One of the negative effects of global warming concerns the possibility of rising sea
level in more than 20 meters. This estimate is valid even if nations can at COP 21 Paris
limiting the temperature rise to just 2 °C. Even if humanity manages to limit the
increase in global warming to just 2 °C, more optimistic estimate proposed by the IPCC,
future generations will have to deal with sea level from 12 to 22 meters higher than the
current one, according to the scientists of University Rutgers in New Jersey, United
States. They focused on the end of the time data known as Pliocene, between 2.7 and
3.2 million years ago, when the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere was similar to
the current and the temperature was 2 °C over higher than now. The rise in sea level
would occur due to the large volume of water that would be released with the melting of
the entire Greenland, which is the world's second largest ice reserve, the ice sheets in
West Antarctica, as well as from some parts of Antarctica East. The rising sea levels
would flood the coasts around the world and affect about 70% of Earth's population.
Another negative effect of global warming concerns the role of the large methane
deposits under the Arctic seas. According to Gary Houser, an environmental writer and
producer of a documentary on the Arctic methane, the clathrate problem should be seen
as one of many possible disasters that can affect humanity. Houser states that it is quite
likely that global warming will increase the methane emissions from permafrost
deposits and submarine hydrates. Methane part will be released in the atmosphere and
the other will be consumed by the soil and the water column of the ocean. The emission
of methane may increase over time and affect the climate. There is much concern in the
scientific community about the dangers of emission of methane. This is one of the most
feared scenarios for climate scientists. Once the methane emission process begins, a
sudden catastrophic event could occur without that mankind can do nothing to stop it. If
humanity wait until this hypothesis can be proved, it is quite possible it's too late to
prevent the colossal forces that will be already in motion.

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The international community begins working to achieve in 2015 at COP 21 (UN
Conference on climate change) in Paris an important agreement for a maximum of 2 ° C
increase in average temperature of the planet Earth. For some scientists, it is an almost
impossible task, a colossal challenge. What is the mandatory requirement? What
commitments will be taken to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases? Will be
maintained flexibility for large emerging countries such as China to continue polluting
in the name of the right to development? The issues are many and complex, but the goal
is to limit global warming to 2 °C above levels before the Industrial Revolution in
England in the early eighteenth century. With the continuous increase in emissions, the
concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has recently reached 400 ppm (parts per
million) level unprecedented in human history. According to the reference group of
IPCC experts, limiting the temperature increase of 2 °C to 2.4 °C assumes that the CO2
concentration does not exceed 350-400 ppm. We would have to reduce by at least half
the emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050. The 2 °C are possibly symbolic, but if they
are overcome, we will take risks with respect to our ability to adapt to the effects of
climate change that will be catastrophic.
One aspect that needs to be highlighted concerns the lack of consensus in the scientific
community about the true causes of global warming. Some meteorologists,
climatologists and scientists in related fields do not believe in the theory of
anthropogenic global warming, that is, that has the man in charge. Despite this, there are
now 95% certain that human influence on climate is responsible for more than half
(70%) of average temperature increases observed between 1951 and 2010. A major
debate has intensified recently when the discussion revolved around the slowing global
warming that has occurred since 1998, with many scientists demanding further
explanation of the phenomenon. The IPCC agrees that the rate of global warming in the
past 15 years is lower than previous trends. This slowdown or hiatus, as the IPCC
classifies the reversal in the trend, it has been used by some scientists as an argument to
say that is wrong "scientific belief" that the emission of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere increases the temperature of the planet. However, the explanation for
slowing global warming resides in the fact that most of the heat was being submerged
below the ocean's surface with the transfer of the increased temperature to ocean.
The risk that global warming contributes to the occurrence of catastrophic climate
change requires that COP 21 adopt in its decisions the precautionary principle that has
its application based on two assumptions: 1) the possibility that human behavior is
cause of collective damage linked to catastrophic situations that may affect the set of
living beings; and, 2) the lack of scientific evidence (uncertainty) about the existence of
the feared harm. The fact that the possible catastrophic events resulting from global
warming have no measurable risk would be to require the adoption of precautionary
measures to prevent its occurrence. It should be noted that we are dealing with a non-
measurable risk potential, not assessable. The adoption of precautionary measures
reinforces the duty of care. It is better to take precautions than cure. The precautionary
principle will further the idea of preventing certain risk because it seeks to preserve the
environment considering an uncertain risk. Precaution is considered when the risk is
high - so high that full scientific certainty should not be required prior to take corrective
action and should be applied in cases where any activity can result in lasting or
irreversible damage to the environment. The precautionary principle differs from the
principle of prevention that is directly related to a certain risk, known to science. The
precautionary principle is that should preside decisions at COP 21In Paris.

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Fernando Alcoforado, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011),
Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012) and
Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2015).