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Climate change in Sudan and related tasks for the science, Extreme events and Managing Risks

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Abdalla Khiyar, IPCC Outreach Event in Sudan 2018

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Climate change in Sudan and related tasks for the science, Extreme events and Managing Risks

  1. 1. Climate change in Sudan and related tasks for the science. Extreme events and Managing Risks Outreach Event on the Role and Activities of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sudan Khartoum, 12 – 13 August 2018 Dr. Abdalla Khyar U of K - IES
  2. 2. Climate of in Sudan The climate ranges from arid in the north to tropical wet-in the south. Desert regions in central and northern Sudan are among the driest and the sunniest places on Earth. The sunshine duration is always uninterrupted year- round and soar to above 4,000 hours in the best cases per year, or about 91% of the time and the sky is cloudless all the time. The bright sunshine duration hours vary from 11.3 hours in Wadi Halfa to 5.3 hours in Ed Damazine. Temperatures do not vary greatly with the season at any location; the most significant climatic variables are rainfall and the length of the dry season. Variations in the length of the dry season depend on which of two air flows predominates, dry northeasterly winds from the Arabian Peninsula or moist southwesterly winds from the Congo River Basin and the Atlantic Ocean. The rainfall increases from north to south and the annual amount is zero millimeters in the extreme north of the country rising to 500 mm in central Sudan, to more than 800 mm in the southern parts of the country.
  3. 3. H H Sources of moisture
  4. 4. -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Dongola Minimum temperature anomalies -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Dongola Maximum temperature anomalies Temperature Anomalies
  5. 5. -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 El Gadarif Minimum temperature anomalies -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 El Gadarif Maximum temperature anomalies
  6. 6. -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 1980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016 Elfasher Minimum temperature anomalies -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Elfaser Maximum Temperature Anomalies
  7. 7. -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Edamazine Minimum temperature anomalies -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Edamazine Maximum temperature anomalies
  8. 8. -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Khartoum Minimum temperature anomalies -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Khartoum Maximum Temperature Anomalies
  9. 9. -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Dongola Rainfall Anomalies -800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Elgadarif Rainfall Anomalies Rainfall Anomalies
  10. 10. -300.0 -200.0 -100.0 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 1917 1920 1923 1926 1929 1932 1935 1938 1941 1944 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Elfasher Rainfall Anomalies -300.0 -200.0 -100.0 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Ed Damazeen Rainfall Anomalies
  11. 11. -200.0 -150.0 -100.0 -50.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Khartoum rainfall anomalies
  12. 12. 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Sudan rainfall climate normal for the period 1941-1970 Sudan rainfall climate normal for the period 1951-1980
  13. 13. 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Sudan rainfall climate normal for the period 1971-2000Sudan rainfall climate normal for the period 1961-1990
  14. 14. SUDAN NORMAL RAINFALL IN MM FOR THE PERIOD 1941-1970 COMPARED TO 1971-2000 (Source: Sudan Meteorological Authority, 2002) ABH ABN AQQ ARB ARM ATB BAR BNS DMZ DNG DUM NSR FSH GDF GEN HAL HAS HDB HLG JUB KDG KHA KHW KRM KSL KST KUR MLK NHD NYL OBD PSD RAG RNK RSH SNR SHW SHM SHN TKR TOR UMB WAU WHF WMD NAG PIB MAR YEI YAM KAP 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00 22.00 500 mm 200 mm
  15. 15. Earth’s climate has changed over the past century. The atmosphere and oceans have warmed, sea levels have risen, and glaciers and ice sheets have decreased in size. The best available evidence indicates that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the main cause. Continuing increases in greenhouse gases will produce further warming and other changes in Earth’s physical environment and ecosystems.
  16. 16. The science behind these statements is supported by extensive studies based on four main lines of evidence: Physical principles established more than a century ago tell us that certain trace gases in the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide (CO 2) and water vapour, restrict the radiant flow of heat from Earth to space. This mechanism, known as the ‘greenhouse effect’, keeps Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere considerably warmer than they would otherwise be. The record of the distant past (millions of years) tells us that climate has varied greatly through Earth’s history. It has, for example, gone through ten major ice age cycles over approximately the past million years. Measurements from the recent past (the last 150 years) tell us that Earth’s surface has warmed as atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases increased through human activities, and that this warming has led to other environmental changes. Climate models allow us to understand the causes of past climate changes, and to project climate change into the future. Together with physical principles and knowledge of past variations, models provide compelling evidence that recent changes are due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.
  17. 17. How to understand the climate change and variability through the new progress in the science of climate prediction? •Through improving the statistical and dynamical models to predict the seasonal rainfall and temperature; • Improve the network of the observing system by using the new satellite generation and remote sensing for weather monitoring and risk zones; • Develop the General Circulation Models (GCMs) to study the interaction between the atmosphere and oceans and their effect on the climate system.
  18. 18. What does science say about options to address climate change? Societies face choices about how to respond to the consequences of future climate change. Available strategies include reducing emissions, capturing CO2, adaptation and ‘geoengineering’. These strategies, which can be combined to some extent, carry different levels of environmental risk and different societal consequences. The role of climate science is to inform decisions by providing the best possible knowledge of climate outcomes and the consequences of alternative courses of action.
  19. 19. EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS • Sudan had experienced several cases of natural disasters caused by extreme climate events. • During the twentieth century, Sudan had witnessed several major drought in 1913, 1940, 1954 a wide spread severe drastic drought in 1983-1984 and a localized drought in the west of Sudan in 1990 • Also the country had witnessed floods caused by the overflow of the Nile River and heavy localized torrential rains in the years 1946, 1988, 1994, 1996, 1997-1999- 2001-2003- 2006 and 2007 – 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, impacts were loss in lives and properties • The frequency of the extreme climate events has increased during 1990-20017
  20. 20. Drought
  21. 21. Dust storm at Khartoum May 2012 after noon
  22. 22. Torrential Rains
  23. 23. Blue Nile Floods
  24. 24. Managing the risks: flash floods
  25. 25. Risk Management Improve water management Sustainable farming practice Drought resistant crops Drought forecasting Risk Factors More variable rain Population Growth Ecosystem degradation Poor health and education system Managing the risks: Drought
  26. 26. Climate change leads to drought which implies to:  Limitation in natural resources… ..conflicts  Food security collapse……famine… displaced people; refugees… .misuse of natural resources  Floods… .imply to migration of people from rural and remote areas to the cities which causes stress on service infrastructure …spoil stability and security conditions  ٍSpreading of epidemic and vector diseases … production declines consequently affects the GDP. Socioeconomic impacts
  27. 27. Thanks

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