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Scotland climate change impacts presentation 2009


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Scotland climate change impacts presentation 2009

  1. 1. WP2 Vulnerability to Climate ChangeWP3 Development of community-led adaptation strategy Alexandre Gagnon Environmental Initiatives Research Group University of the West of Scotland John McClatchey Environmental Research Institute, North Highland College, UHI Clive Bowman Centre for Mountain Studies, Perth College, UHI
  2. 2. How to predict the impacts of climatechange? Fig. Flow-chart for assessing climate change impacts. Source: Dr. Mark New, Oxford University29/04/2009 A. S. Gagnon 2
  3. 3. SRES emission scenarios SRES: four future storylinesSource: IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, 2007 29/04/2009 A. S. Gagnon 3
  4. 4. From emissions to concentrations By using biogeochemical cycle models that estimate the fate of emitted greenhouse gasesSource: IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, 2007 29/04/2009 A. S. Gagnon 4
  5. 5. Global and regional models General circulation models (GCMs) of the atmosphere and ocean simulate the response of the climate system to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphereFig. Example of a GCM Source: IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, 200729/04/2009 A. S. Gagnon 5
  6. 6. Regional models Higher resolution than General Circulation Models (GCMs) Fig. UK average winter precipitation.29/04/2009 A. S. Gagnon 6
  7. 7. Climate change scenarios  Outputs from regional climate model of the Hadley Centre  50 resolution grid points  Four GHG emission scenarios. Alternative projections of how the future climate might evolve over the 21st century: ◦ Low ◦ Medium-low ◦ Medium-high (also referred to as ‘Business As Usual scenario’) scenario. ◦ High  Time periods ◦ 2020s ◦ 2050s ◦ 2080s29/04/2009 A. S. Gagnon 7
  8. 8. Temperature projections Monthly daily mean temperature Low emissions scenario 20 Cairngorm National Park 15 Temperature (°C) 10 5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec month 1961-1990 2020s 2050s 2080s Monthly daily mean temperature High emissions scenario 20 Cairngorm National Park 15 Temperature (°C) 10 5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec month29/04/2009 1961-1990 Gagnon A. S. 2020s 2050s 2080s
  9. 9. Precipitation projections for the UK29/04/2009 A. S. Gagnon
  10. 10. Precipitation projections Monthly total precipitation rate Medium-High emissions scenario Cairngorm National Park 100 Precipitation (mm/month) 75 50 25 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec month 1961-1990 2020s 2050s 2080s29/04/2009 A. S. Gagnon
  11. 11. Wind projections29/04/2009 A. S. Gagnon
  12. 12. Snowfall projections Gridpoint centred over Cairngorm National Park02/09/08 A. S. Gagnon
  13. 13. Scenarios obtained for other climatevariables Max and min temperature Relative humidity Fractional cloud cover Soil moisture content Inter-annual variability of temperature and precipitation (2080s only)02/09/08 A. S. Gagnon
  14. 14. Summary of climate change projections Predicted climate, in general terms, suggests increasingly wetter winter half year and drier summer half year. Predicted temperature changes are for progressive warming over the next 100 years. Assuming a ‘Business-As-Usual’ scenario by 2050, annual temperature is expected to be approximately 1.5 C warmer on average Precipitation is projected to increase in the winter, but decrease in the summer months For snowfall, the model projections are provided for the months of December, January, and February only. By 2050, snowfall is projected to decrease by 44%, 40%, and 40% respectively, during those three months. Seasonally, the decrease in snowfall will be 41.5%02/09/08 A. S. Gagnon
  15. 15. Data provided at higher resolution 5km grid – better for ski resorts but no snowfall data29/04/2009 A. S. Gagnon
  16. 16. UKCIP08 -> UKCP09 Postponed from Autumn 2008 to early summer 2009 Dummy data have not been provided Higher spatial and temporal resolution Better assessment of uncertainty – two types of uncertainty Output 1 Output 202/09/08 A. S. Gagnon
  17. 17. Further analysis using local data Climate change and tourism  Cairngorm skiing industry and its ability to adapt to a changing climate  Viability of snow-based tourism not a simple function of winter temperature  Winters may be milder but wetter and therefore when snowfall occurs there may be greater amounts falling  Wind direction – changes in frequency of winds that encourage distribution towards the pistes during snowfall events? Tourism climatic index02/09/08 A. S. Gagnon
  18. 18. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
  19. 19. Combination of climate and socio-economic processes Cairngorm National Park  Focus on adaptation strategy for tourism sector Climate Climate processes  Socio-economic development at national scale needs to be processes considered in the development of adaptation strategy e.g. ageing and wealthier population Social change scenarios up to 2031 Vulnerability time scale for adaptation? assessment Transnationality aspect Socio-  Sweden and Finland (winter tourism) Socio-economic economic processes processes02/09/08 A. S. Gagnon
  20. 20. Workshop – WP3 Development of a community-led climate change adaptation strategy for the tourism sector Participatory approach Transnationality02/09/08 A. S. Gagnon