2. 2
Analysis of New Car Registrations in Europe and Italy
* EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland); ** Δ% November 2018 / November 2017
Executive Summary
Areas: Islands +4,2%, South -2,4%, Centre -5,0%, North-East -8,3% and North-West
-8,4% in volume in November 2018 compared to November 2017
Customer segments: Fleet +0,3%, Retail -3,1% and Business -8,2% in volume in
November 2018YTD compared to November 2017YTD
Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, high increases for Jeep +71,7%,Volkswagen
+11,6% and Citroen +6,0% in November 2018YTD compared to November 2017YTD
Premium brands: among the Top 15 by volume, BMW -5,1%, Mercedes-Benz -7,3% and
Audi -9,4% in volume in November 2018YTD compared to November 2017YTD
Top 3 Countries by growth in new registrations: Poland +2,1%, UK -3,0% and France
-4,7% in volume in November 2018 compared to November 2017
Top 3 Countries by market share: Germany 21,9% (-0,1 p.p.), UK 15,2% (-1,2 p.p.) and
France 13,8% (+0,5 p.p.) in November 2018YTD compared to November 2017YTD
Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, high increases for Dacia +13,2%, Peugeot +6,4%
and Citroen +5,2% in November 2018YTD compared to November 2017YTD
Premium brands: BMW -0,7%, Mercedes-Benz -3,5% and Audi -11,8% in volume in
November 2018YTD compared to November 2017YTD
Europe*
Italy
-8,1%**
-6,3%**
3. 3
Agenda
1 Europe
1.1 Market Overview
1.2 New Car Registrations by Brand
2 Italy
3 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric)
4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
4. 4
Top 10 European Markets* – November 2018 vs November 2017
Europe – Market Overview
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis
EU New Car Registrations
1.158.300
1.259.793
2018 2017
-8,1%
##
#°
##
Ranking on November 2018 data
New Car Registrations in November 2018
Δ% Nov. 2018 / Nov. 2017
* EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland)
** World Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure
-6,3
4°
146.991
-9,9
10°
24.103
+2,1
6°
43.248
1°
272.674
-20,5
9°
25.813-7,4
7°
34.785
-14,7
8°
33.819
-12,6
5°
91.063
-4,7
2°
171.611
3°
158.639
-3,0
-9,9
Once more, the European landscape is dominated by
negative growth across all Europe due to the
introduction in September of the new EU testing scheme
(WLTP**)
5. 5
-20
20
10
0
-10
In November 2018, registrations of Passenger Cars in all European major markets suffered for the third consecutive
month. In spite of the exogenous shock (WLTP**), on aYTD basis there are just few countries that registered a
significant decrease both in terms of volume and market share (e.g., UK, Italy, Sweden and Switzerland)
Top 10 European Markets* – November 2018YTD
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Europe – Market Overview
Highlights Market Share
# Country
Nov.
2018
∆ Vs
2017
1 Germany 21,9% -0,1%
2 UK 15,2% -1,2%
3 France 13,8% 0,5%
4 Italy 12,2% -0,5%
5 Spain 8,4% 0,6%
6 Belgium 3,6% 0,0%
7 Poland 3,3% 0,3%
8 Netherlands 2,9% 0,2%
9 Sweden 2,3% -0,1%
10 Austria 2,2% -0,1%
0,4
-6,9
-3,5
4,7
8,0
1,5
6,8
-1,8
11,0
-4,0
Market Share
∆ % Volume
Nov. 18/17
* EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland); ** World Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure
20%10%
New Car Registrations Nov. 2018 YTD
6. 6
Top 15 – November 2018YTD
Europe – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis
∆M.S.
18/17
0,03 -0,02 -0,02 0,06 -0,07 -0,04 -0,01 0,04 -0,12 0,05 -0,09 0,05 0,05 0,13 -0,12 0,01
Vol.'18 1.633.485 1.026.559 928.601 907.710 829.594 802.182 750.476 680.260 679.779 672.671 672.618 559.647 507.292 488.330 466.516 14.585.417
M.S.'18 11,2% 7,0% 6,4% 6,2% 5,7% 5,5% 5,1% 4,7% 4,7% 4,6% 4,6% 3,8% 3,5% 3,3% 3,2%
3,4
-2,1 -2,2
6,4
-6,5
-3,5
-0,7
3,8
-11,8
5,1
-8,6
5,2 5,0
-11,8
0,6
13,2
∆ %
18/17
Tot.
*
* Opel includes Vauxhall New Car Registrations
7. 7
Agenda
1 Europe
2 Italy
2.1 Market Overview
2.2 Market Highlights
2.3 New Car Registrations by Brand
2.4 New Car Registrations by Group
2.5 New Car Registrations by Fuel Type
3 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric)
4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
8. 8
Italian Market –Variation of New Car Registrations 2018 vs 2017
Italy – Market Overview
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis; * World Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure ∆'17/'16 ∆'18/'17
November registrations confirm a very slow recovery after the introduction of the
WLTP(*). A strong decline of Diesel in November (-26% vs November 2017) sends a
clear signal to the market and shows how the market downward trend (-6% with
146,991 registrations vs 156,886 in November 2017) is still caused by WLTP, which
had already affected heavily registrations during September and October 2018.As in
October, the decline in registration had a notable horizontal impact on almost all
segments, excluding A, and geographic areas, excluding the islands
November 2018
April
-4,6%
FebruaryJanuary DecemberMarch
8,1%
-2,8%
May June July September October November
10,1%
3,4% 6,2%
August
-1,4%
15,8%18,2%
-5,8%
6,5% 8,2%
12,9%
-7,3%
5,9% 4,4%
-25,4%
9,5% 7,1%
-7,4%
6,8%
-6,3% -3,2%
9. 9
Diesel
51,8%
Petrol
34,8% LPG
6,5%
CNG*
2,0%
EV*
4,8%
Other
13,2%
Italian Market – November 2018YTD vs November 2017YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – Market Highlights
Analysis by “Customer Segment” Analysis by “Fuel Type”
Analysis by “Geographical Area” Analysis by “Car Segment”
1.007.988
411.669 366.065
1.040.334
410.523 398.799
FleetRetail Business
2017
-3,1% 0,3% -8,2%∆'18/'17
551.002
585.946
368.025
186.711
94.038
597.543 599.219
373.759
185.471
93.664
North-West CentreNorth-East South Islands
277.685
1.785.722
653.475
590.227
227.048 32.148 5.139
A B FDC E Total
-10,7% -3,5% 1,1% -4,2% -10,9% 6,6%-7,8% -2,2% -1,5% 0,7% 0,4%
2018
2017
∆'18/'17 ∆'18/'17
2018
2017
-11,7
+34,9
+20,5
-3,3
+6,0
∆% Volume Nov. 2018 / Nov. 2017 (YTD)
* CNG: Compressed Natural Gas (Methane and Ethanol); EV: Electric Vehicle (Hybrid and Electric)
1.785.722 1.849.656
2017
2018
-3,5
10. 10
11,8
4,4
3,4
-0,4
-5,7
-13,3
-14,6
-15,6
-33,1
34,3
Italian Market – November 2018 vs November 2017
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – Market Overview
2015
2014
Δ% November 2018 / November 2017
146.991
156.886
-6,3%
2017
2018
-8,4
North-West
44.591
+4,2
Islands
8.499
-8,3
North-East
44.143
-5,0
Centre
33.080
-2,4
South
16.679
##
aa
##
Region
New Car Registrations in November 2018
Δ% Nov. 2018 / Nov. 2017
Growth of the Top 10
brands by volumes
6
11. 11
New Car Registrations by Brand – November 2018YTD (1/3)
Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
304.634
151.332
122.035 116.237 101.225 89.778 82.903 77.869 77.590 58.030 56.905 56.167 53.560 51.654 50.013
-20,0
11,6
-3,2 -7,1
4,2
-5,7
3,4 6,0
-9,4 -7,3
4,3
-5,1
-11,8 -7,9
71,7
Volume
∆Volume
18/17 %
∆ M.S.
18/17 %
Market
Share %
-3,52 1,14 0,01 -0,26 0,42 -0,12 0,30 1,91 0,39 -0,21 -0,13 0,24 -0,05 -0,28 -0,13
17,06 8,47 6,83 6,51 5,67 5,03 4,64 4,36 4,35 3,25 3,19 3,15 3,00 2,89 2,80
12. 12
New Car Registrations by Brand – November 2018YTD (2/3)
Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
45.088 44.202 41.191
30.499
23.694 23.241
19.454 18.878 17.533 16.350
10.164 8.710 8.332 5.443 4.866
1,4
-22,7
-3,0
4,8 9,7
-7,5 -15,0
16,0 11,8
-7,4
4,1
-9,5 -5,1
74,1
56,3
Volume
∆Volume
18/17 %
∆ M.S.
18/17 %
Market
Share %
0,12 -0,61 0,01 0,14 0,16 -0,06 -0,15 0,18 0,13 -0,03 0,04 0,22 -0,03 0,11 -0,01
2,52 2,48 2,31 1,71 1,33 1,30 1,09 1,06 0,98 0,92 0,57 0,49 0,47 0,30 0,27
13. 13
New Car Registrations by Brand – November 2018YTD (3/3)
Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
3.443
3.183
2.621 2.439 2.319
1.329
824
534 411 381 199 55 48 26 2
15,1
-5,3 -4,4
10,5
-10,7
13,4
61,8 71,9
-5,9 -23,5
100,0
216,9237,3
-0,9
-70,5
Volume
∆Volume
18/17 %
∆ M.S.
18/17 %
Market
Share %
0,00 0,03 0,00 0,00 0,02 0,05 -0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
0,19 0,18 0,15 0,14 0,13 0,07 0,05 0,03 0,02 0,02 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
14. 14
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
New Car Registrations by Group – Top 15 – November 2018YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Group
26,4
15,2
14,1
9,7
6,8
5,3
4,8
4,5
4,1
2,9
1,7
1,4
1,0
0,6
0,5
Top 5: 72,1%
Top 10: 93,8%
-3,7%
4,1%
-10,9%
-3,2%
-7,4%
6,1%
1,1%
-3,7%
3,2%
-8,0%
-13,6%
4,8%
10,6%
11,8%
-9,5%
470.898
271.032
252.133
172.404
122.035
95.101
86.346
80.146
73.014
52.188
30.499
25.060
17.533
10.164
8.332
FCA
PSA
Volkswagen
Renault
Ford
Hyundai
Toyota
Daimler
BMW
Nissan
Suzuki
JLR
Volvo
Mazda
Honda
Market Share
(%)
DeltaVolume
'18 vs '17
VolumeGroup Brand
15. 15
New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – Petrol and Diesel
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Fuel Type
DieselPetrol
November 2018 2018YTD
Ranking variation compared to previous period
9.354
2.938
2.077
2.058
1.877
1.723
1.400
1.387
1.376
1.331
79.995
30.004
29.146
21.205
18.065
17.842
15.376
14.874
14.522
12.995
32.801
32.189
29.097
26.300
25.858
25.162
24.092
21.077
19.992
19.524
2.885
2.601
2.443
1.913
1.781
1.770
1.751
1.412
1.388
1.255
TIGUAN
RENEGADE
COMPASS
500X
CLIO
GOLF
3008
CAPTUR
QASHQAI
KUGA
PANDA
YPSILON
500
POLO
C3
FIESTA
208
CLIO
FORTWO
UP!
COMPASS
500X
RENEGADE
CLIO
TIGUAN
TIPO
QASHQAI
3008
FIESTA
500L
PANDA
YPSILON
C3
500
208
UP!
500X
FIESTA
KARL
AYGO
16. 16
1.460
1.442
1.398
1.333
956
744
550
354
267
179
New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – LPG and CNG
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
CNGLPG
November 2018 2018YTD
Italy – New Car Registrations by Fuel Type
Ranking variation compared to previous period
10.671
10.137
8.764
7.095
6.705
6.283
5.883
5.710
4.624
4.312
7.364
5.820
4.673
3.487
2.339
2.295
1.698
1.474
1.093
1.010
605
564
230
204
82
78
42
37
33
27
PANDA
SANDERO
DUSTER
YPSILON
CORSA
CLIO
MOKKA
500
PICANTO
110
PANDA
YPSILON
CORSA
CLIO
SANDERO
C3
500X
TIPO
KARL
MOKKA
GOLF
POLO
PANDA
UP!
PUNTO
OCTAVIA
IBIZA
QUBO
ASTRA
LEON
UP!
PANDA
ASTRA
QUBO
CADDY
YPSILON
PUNTO
CITIGO
MII
POLO
17. 17
Overview of New Car Registrations by Segment
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
Segments Growth in Market Share* Market Share andVolume**
-1,3%
D
«Executive»
0,0%
B
«Supermini»
-0,2%
E
«Luxury»
+1,5%
C
«Medium»
0,0%
F
«Ultra Luxury»
15,6%A
F
C 33,1%
36,6%
D 12,7%
B
1,8%E
0,3%
100,0%Tot.
32.148
277.685
653.475
590.227
227.048
5.139
1.785.722
A
«Utility/City»
* Δ% November 2018 YTD / November 2017 YTD; ** Market Share and Volume November 2018 YTD
-0,1%
18. 18
Segment A and Segment B – Top 10 – November 2018YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
A
“Utility/City”
B
“Supermini”
113.724
38.292
17.529 16.525 15.522 12.904 10.830 9.850 8.594 8.197
UP!PANDA KARL500 PICANTOFORTWO 110AYGO IGNIS TWINGO
48.269
44.200
38.985 37.836 37.761 37.232
32.726 31.378
26.842 26.822
YARISYPSILONCLIO FIESTAC3 208POLO 500L SANDERO CAPTUR
∆ Vol. %
18/17 YTD
∆ Vol. %
18/17 YTD
SegmentA is the only segment that registered a
strong increase in November 2018 (+7,5% in
respect to November 2017) which is still not
sufficient to recover theYTD decline. Segment B
also registers aYTD decline (-3,5% in respect to
November 2017YTD), confirming the trend
observed over the last months
-17,8% -25,3% 69,5% 9,9% -8,8% 4,8% -25,3% 31,2% 1,0% 3,1%
-3,0% -22,7% -14,1% -2,3% 2,2% 8,2% -24,9% -8,5% 2,5% -2,9%
19. 19
Segment C and Segment D –Top 10 – November 2018YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
C
“Medium”
D
“Executive”
47.046
38.745 38.495
35.991
33.577
27.634 26.747 25.056 23.033
17.825
C-HRDUSTERCOMPASS ECOSPORT500X RENEGADETIPO GOLF QASHQAI 3008
28.705
16.468
12.063 11.447
8.265 8.113 7.614 7.306 7.087 6.901
KUGA OCTAVIASTELVIO XITIGUAN A4 RAV4GLA Q3 Q5
∆ Vol. %
18/17 YTD
∆ Vol. %
18/17 YTD
10,5% -27,4% 10,3% 449,9% -14,4% -5,9% 48,1% 13,0% 47,1% 13,4%
4,7% -3,4% 71,4% -5,8% -23,7% 2,9% -15,8% -20,6% -2,8% 1,7%
Segment C is the only non-luxury segment that still
shows a positive sign on aYTD basis (+1,1% vs
November 2017YTD), whereas Segment D decreased
by -4,2% on aYTD basis
20. 20
Segment E and Segment F –Top 10 – November 2018YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
E
“Luxury”
F
“Ultra Luxury”
976
881
539
360 321
233 229 217 178 173
SERIE 7PAN
AM ERA
911 GHIBLI CLASSE S MODEL S F-TYPE A8 MODEL X 488
∆ Vol. %
18/17 YTD
∆ Vol. %
18/17 YTD
9,1% -24,1% -16,3% -15,4% -27,0% -14,6% -1,9% -18,9% -4,2% -20,9%
13,5% 10,5% 11,6% -15,3% -10,3% -10,0% 28,7% 33,1% -11,4% 8,1%
4.646
4.223
3.169
2.529 2.396
1.517 1.451 1.291 1.271 1.117
LEVANTEF-PACESERIE 5 RANGE
SPORT
CLASSE E X5A6 XC90 GLE GRAND
CHEROKEE
Segment E registered one of the strongest drop
(-19,9% vs November 2017) which involved
almost all the Top10 carlines of the segment.This
further decrease makes Segment E register the
worstYTD result among all segments (-10,9%)
Segment F is the only segment which registered
a notable positive growth throughout the year
(+6,6% on aYTD basis)
21. 21
Agenda
1 Europe
2 Italy
3 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric)
4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
22. 22
New Car Registrations of Hybrid vs Pure ElectricVehicles
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy
24.910
36.205
63.268
85.370
20182015 20172016
EV Registrations Trend
Volume, DeltaYoY, EV Market Share Nov. '18YTD
Hybrid and Pure ElectricVehicles Trend
Volume Nov. '18YTD
Delta
YoY
20,7% 45,3% 74,8% 34,9%
M.S. 1,7% 2,1% 3,4% 4,8%
CAGR
2,9%
5,4%
97,1%
94,6%
3,3%
2015 2016
96,7%
2017
5,4%
94,6%
2018
Electric Hybrid
+50,4%
+50,8%
23. 23
Pure
Electric
Vehicles
Top 5 Hybrid and Pure ElectricVehicles – November 2018YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy
1.404
998
913
233 178
MODEL XLEAF FORTWO ZOE MODEL S
26.454
17.271
6.955 6.654
3.807
YARIS C-HR RAV4 AURIS NIRO
Hybrid
Vehicles
While Diesel vehicles continue
to register a negative growth
(-12% vs November 2017YTD),
hybrids increased steadily in
November reaching +31% vs
2017 on aYTD basis
Pure Electric vehicles continue
to show strong increases on a
YTD basis (+155% vs
November 2017YTD)
24. 24
Agenda
1 Europe
2 Italy
3 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric)
4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
25. 25
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (1/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
A
B
C
D
F
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
Giulietta
A7 SportbackA6
(P)
X5i8 Roadster
2 Series Active
& Gran TourerM3
Z4
(P)X4
DS7
Crossback
Duster
(P)
M5
Q3
(P)
RS5
Sportback
(P)
C5
Aircross
(P)
Q8
(P)
A1
(P)
DS3
Crossback
(P)
8Series
(P)
C4
(P)
Berlingo
(P)
E-tron
(P)
S8
(P)
Portofino
500X
26. 26
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (2/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
F
G
H
I
J
K
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Fiesta ST
(P)
Mustang
Focus
(P)
Tourneo
Custom
Jazz NSX
Roadster
(P)
HR-VCR-V
i30 Fastback Santa
Fe
i20
H1 Tucson i40
I-Pace
Renegade
Cee’d
(P)
Cherokee Wrangler
Sportage
Niro EV
(P)
QX50
Edge
27. 27
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (3/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
L
M
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Urus
Range Rover
Sport Hybrid
Aventador SVJ
(P)
Aventador S
Roadster
Huracan Spyder
Performante
(P)
Discovery
SVX
(P)
LS
(P)
RX L
2
CX-3 CX-5
6
MX-5
Ghibli Quattroporte
3
(P)
AMG GT4
G-Class
C-Class
CLS
Mini
(P)
28. 28
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (4/5)
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
M
N
O
P
R
S
(P)
Juke
ASX
508
(P)
Eclipse
cross
Outlander
Outlander
PHEV
Leaf
Insigna GSi
508 SW
(P)
Cayman
GT4
(P)
911
GT3 RS
(P)
992
(P)
Macan
911 Carrera
T
Megan RS
Leon Cupra
R Ateca Cupra
(P)
Tarraco
(P)
Kodiaq
sportline
Fabia
29. 29
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (5/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
S
T
V
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Tivoli Actyon Sports
(P)
Smart Electric
Drive
Levorg
JimnySwift SportVitara
Land Cruiser Supra
(P)
XC40 S60
Touareg
(P)
Passat
T-Cross
(P)