Arthur D. Little Automotive report December 2020

Automotive Report
Analysis of New Car Registrations
December 2020

2
Global Market Overview
Executive Summary
* Δ% in Volume December 2020 YTD / December 2019 YTD among markets with more than 850.000 New Car Registrations; ** BRIC: Brazil, Russia, India, China
Russia: Since July 2020, new car sales have been slightly
higher than in 2019.This might be explained by advanced
buying in anticipation of the second lockdown and vehicle
prices increase caused by the rouble depreciation. Such
advanced buying is likely to cause a payback effect in the first
half of 2021.
Top 3 Markets*
South Korea: the sales increase was mainly attributed to new model
launches from domestic brands, year-end aggressive sales promotions, and
growth in the import sector market with the consumption tax relief on
passenger vehicles.
China: Effective pandemic containment has
allowed greater restoration of economic
normalcy. Chinese auto market has improved
noticeably also thanks to the rollout of
government incentives.
7,5%
-6,7%
-18,9%
China
Russia
S. Korea

3
Analysis of New Car Registrations in Europe and Italy
* EU (27 Countries) + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) + UK; ** Δ% December 2020 / December 2019
Executive Summary
◼ Areas: North-East -18,2%, North-West -14,5%, Centre -14,9%, South -12,9% and Islands
-4,4%, in volume in December 2020 compared to December 2019
◼ Customer segments: Retail -19,3%, Fleet -34,9% and Business -44,6% in volume in
December 2020YTD compared to December 2019YTD
◼ Brands: among theTop 15 by volume, smallest decrease for BMW -20,9%,Audi -22,7% and
Toyota -21,1% in December 2020YTD compared to December 2019YTD
◼ Premium brands: among theTop 15 by volume BMW -20,9%,Audi -22,7% and Mercedes-
Benz -27,0% in volume in December 2020YTD compared to December 2019YTD
◼ Top 3 Countries by increase in new registrations: Ireland +168,3%, Norway +82,8% and
Denmark +46,8% in volume in December 2020 compared to December 2019
◼ Top 3 Countries by market share: Germany 24,4% (+1,6 p.p.), France 13,8% (-0,2 p.p.) and
UK 13,6% (-1,0 p.p.) in December 2020YTD compared to December 2019YTD
◼ Brands: among theTop 15 by volume, smallest decrease for Toyota -12,7%, Skoda -15,7%
and Kia -17,1% in December 2020YTD compared to December 2019YTD
◼ Premium brands:Audi -19,2%, BMW -18,8% and Mercedes-Benz -17,3% in volume in
December 2020YTD compared to December 2019YTD
Europe*
Italy
-3,7%**
-14,9%**

4
Agenda
1 Global Market Overview
2 Europe
3 Italy
4 Focus on Future of After Sales
5 New Car Models Launches in Italy

5
-4,0%
-3,0%
-2,0%
-1,0%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
-30,0% -25,0% -20,0% -15,0% -10,0% -5,0% 0,0% 5,0% 10,0%
Global Overview – Top 10 Markets and Europe*
Source: Arthur D. Little Analysis on IHS Global Insight Data and on market data
Highlights
2020YTD vs. 2019YTD, DeltaVolume vs. Delta Market Share, Market Size
Bubble Size – New Car
Registrations in 2020 YTD
∆ % Volume 20 vs. 19
∆ % Market Share
20/19
5,0%
* EU (27 Countries) + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) + UK

6
Top 5 Brands analysis in major economies
Source: Arthur D. Little Analysis on IHS Global Insight and on market data
Italy and Europe* Major Economies*
5
2
1
4
3
M.S. % CML
(Top 5)
Total market
2020 YTD
Δ% 20/19 Top5
Brands
46%
17%
10%
6%
5%
2.405.895
**
0,2%
84%
India
22%
13%
10%
8%
7%
1.523.880
**
0,9%
62%
Russia
EU+EFTA+UK
11%
7%
6%
6%
6%
11.961.182
0,2%
41%
Italy
15%
9%
7%
6%
6%
36%
1.381.496
0,9%
* Period January-December 2020; ** IHS Global Insight estimated value
18%
17%
14%
9%
8%
66%
1.883.066
**
1,9%
Brazil
14%
8%
8%
6%
5%
20.159.744
**
1,3%
China
33%
16%
13%
11%
11%
3.832.135
**
84%
Japan
13%
12%
12%
9%
6%
14.144.469
**
-1,0%
51%
US
1,8%
42%

7
Agenda
2 Europe
2.1 Market Overview
2.2 New Car Registrations by Brand
3 Italy

8
Top 10 European Markets* – December 2020 vs December 2019
Europe – Market Overview
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis, Sweden Transport Analysis Agency
EU New Car Registrations
1.214.581 1.261.550
2020 2019
-3,7%
##
#°
##
Ranking on December 2020 data
New Car Registrations in December 2020
Δ% December 2020 / December 2019
-14,9
4°
119.454
-15,4
10°
29.451
-1,9
6°
51.507
1°
311.394
-0,0
5°
105.841
-11,8
2°
186.323
-10,9
3°
132.682
+9,9
During the month of December the EU passenger car market has continued to decline as several countries
continued to adopt measures to contain the 2° wave of COVID-19. It was given by mixed results (increase
for 11 out of 30 countries and decrease for 19 countries). However, 30 countries still show negative sign if
compared full year results of 2020 vs. 2019 (from -0,7% in Norway up to -42,8% in Croatia)
-10,1
9°
30.078
-28,0
8°
34.662
◼ The second wave of COVID-19 in EU
slipped back PC market into negative
territory again. The cumulative performance
in 2020 has been severely impacted (-24,3%
or 3.844.476 units sold less in twelve
months of 2020 vs. 2019)
7°
42.829
+2,9

9
On a year-to-date basis, European PC registrations (11.961.182 units in total) decreased by -24,3% compared to
2019YTD.The Market Share has decreased in almost all Top 5 European Markets (UK, Spain, Italy and France). Germany
continues its positive performance (positive signs for the fifth month in a row).
Top 10 European Markets* – December 2020YTD
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Europe – Market Overview
Highlights Market Share
# Country
December
2020 YTD
∆ Vs 2019
1 Germany 24,4% 1,6%
2 France 13,8% -0,2%
3 UK 13,6% -1,0%
4 Italy 11,5% -0,6%
5 Spain 7,1% -0,8%
6 Belgium 3,6% 0,1%
7 Poland 3,6% 0,1%
8 Netherlands 3,0% 0,2%
9 Sweden 2,4% 0,2%
10 Austria 2,1% 0,0%
-19,1
-25,5
-29,4
-27,9
-32,3
-21,5
-22,9
-19,5
-18,0
-24,5
Market Share
∆ % Volume
December 20/19
20%
New Car Registrations December 2020
YTD
10%
-25
-35
-15

10
Top 15 – December 2020YTD
Europe – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis
∆ M.S.
20/19
0,00 0,02 0,02 0,09 0,07 -0,10 0,15 0,11 0,07 -0,01 -0,21 -0,07 0,00 0,10 -0,08
Vol.’20 1.346.999 819.009 741.498 738.236 674.654 654.729 648.275 643.019 600.470 492.101 485.778 448.352 424.805 416.715 405.472 11.961.182
M.S.’20 11,3% 6,8% 6,2% 6,2% 5,6% 5,5% 5,4% 5,4% 5,0% 4,1% 4,1% 3,7% 3,6% 3,5% 3,4%
-24,5 -22,9 -23,2
-17,3 -18,8
-31,7
-12,7
-15,7
-19,2
-25,4
-40,4
-29,6
-24,5
-17,1
-30,2
-24,3
∆ %
20/19
Tot.**
*
* Opel includes Vauxhall New Car Registrations; ** EU (27 Countries) + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) + UK

11
Agenda
2 Europe
3 Italy
3.1 Market Overview
3.2 Market Highlights
3.3 New Car Registrations by Brand
3.4 New Car Registrations by Group
3.5 New Car Registrations by FuelType

12
Italian Market –Variation of New Car Registrations 2020 vs 2019
Italy – Market Overview
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis ∆’19/’18 ∆’20/’19
The month of December confirms the strong decline in the Italian car market (-14.9% vs. December 2019).The drop caused by
COVID-19 outbreak, washed out almost one third of its annual volume (-27.9% compared to 1.916.949 in January-December
2019), with a final balance of 535.453 units units sold less. Private segment in December was recovering better than other
segments (-19.3% for Private, -34.9% for Fleet and -44.6% for Business). Main optimistic numbers are related for more month in a
row to EV sales (+753.5% in December 2020 vs. 2019 with 6.405 registered units this month) and hybrid sales (+225.8% or 22.378
units registered more than in December 2019). Italian Government has approved the Budget Law 2021 that introduced new
measures to support the renewal of the circulating fleet with less polluting and safer cars.
December 2020
-0,2%
-8,3%
March August
April
-2,1%
-2,4%
May
-49,6%
1,5%
June July September October
6,7%
-7,5%
-85,4%
-5,9% -8,8% -9,6%
-97,6%
-1,2%
-11,0%
-23,1%
-0,1%
November
-0,4%
13,4%
9,5%
2,2%
-3,1%
-14,9%
December
February
January
12,5%

13
46,2
15,4
8,7
4,3
1,0
-0,3
-5,1
-10,6
-27,8
-46,7
Italian Market – December 2020 vs December 2019
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – Market Overview
2015
2014
119.454
140.448
-14,9%
2019
-14,5%
North-West
36.317
Islands
7.214
-18,2%
North-East
33.929
-14,9%
Centre
28.646
South
13.347
##
aa
##
Region
New Car Registrations in December 2020
Growth of the Top 10
brands by volumes
6
-4,4%
-12,9%
2020

14
Diesel
33,1%
Petrol
37,5%
LPG
6,8%
CNG* 2,3%
EV*
20,3%
Other
29,4%
Italian Market – December 2020YTD vs December 2019YTD
Italy – Market Highlights
Analysis by “Customer Segment” Analysis by “Fuel Type”
Analysis by “Geographical Area” Analysis by “Car Segment”
878.091
299.068
204.337
1.088.751
459.462
368.735
Retail Fleet Business
-19,3% -34,9% -44,6%
∆’20/’19
416.018 434.501
304.660
151.020
75.297
588.567
628.851
402.106
196.727
100.698
Centre South
North-West Islands
North-East
226.595
1.381.496
518.135
436.069
171.151 24.781 4.765
Total
D
C
A F
B E
-29,9% -22,7% -33,2% -25,4% -29,9% -14,6%
-29,3% -30,9% -24,2% -23,2% -25,2%
2020
2019
∆’20/’19 ∆’20/’19
2020
2019
-40,4
-38,9
∆% Volume December 2020 / December
2019 (YTD)
* CNG: Compressed Natural Gas (Methane and Ethanol); EV: Electric Vehicle (Hybrid and Electric)
1.381.496
1.916.949
2019
2020
-27,9
+122,2
-31,3
-18,4

15
Italian Market – Distribution channels – December 2020YTD vs
December 2019YTD
Italy – Market Highlights
∆% Volume December 2020 / December
2019 (YTD)
*) Self-registrations related to LTR&STR use made by Dealers and OEMs;
**) Including Dealers and OEMs self-registrations not related to LTR & STR
Retail
Private Customers
-34,9%
MS:
21,6%
2019
459,5
62,9
2020
280,9
211,4
137,9
40,6 24,7
299,1
-24,7%
-19,3%
MS:
63,6%
-44,6%
MS:
14,8%
-54,4%
-39,2%
132,1
72,2
270,7
98,0
2019 2020
368,7
204,3
-26,4%
2019
1.088,8
2020
878,1
-19,3%
-51,2%
Private Customers LTR Captive LTR&STR*
STR Companies Captive self-registrations
◼ Respect December 2019YTD, in 2020,
Retail segment of the Italian market was
recovering better than other segments
(210.661 units sold less) and has increased
its Market ShareYTD (56.8% in December
2019 vs. 63.6% in December 2020)
◼ All of Fleet subsegments decreased in
December 2020YTD due to COVID-19
outbreak: STR segment (-54,4% or 74.999
units sold less vs. December 2019).The drop
of LTR segment was also relevant (-24,7% or
69.473 units sold less vs. December 2019)
◼ The decrease of the Business segment
registrations in December 2020YTD vs.
December 2019YTD was related both to the
reduction of Captive self-registrations (-51,2%
or 138.540 units less sold) and Company
registrations (-26,4% or 25.858 units less sold)
Fleet
LTR, STR and Captive LTR&STR*
Business
Company registrations**
Market Share YTD increase / decrease

16
New Car Registrations by Brand – December 2020YTD (1/3)
Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand
211.297
128.152
89.558 85.893 81.626 71.148 64.363 59.598 53.880 53.407 49.833 46.011 45.909 43.023 35.454
-26,1 -27,5 -26,9 -24,6 -25,8
-21,1
-25,6 -26,9
-44,2
-36,5
-22,7 -20,9
-27,0 -26,8 -25,8
Volume
∆Volume
20/19 %
∆ M.S.
20/19 %
Market
Share %
0,37 0,05 0,09 0,28 0,17 0,45 0,15 0,06 -1,14 -0,52 0,25 0,30 0,04 0,04 0,08
15,29 9,28 6,48 6,22 5,91 5,15 4,66 4,31 3,90 3,87 3,61 3,33 3,32 3,11 2,57

17
33.455 33.387
28.353
24.659
22.138
17.202 17.053 16.586
11.319 10.096
6.705 5.688 4.633 4.574 4.044
-12,6
-33,7 -34,3
-7,4
-17,5
-33,5
-18,4 -23,4 -31,1 -24,7 -22,7 -15,5
3,9
-87,0
-30,6
Volume
∆Volume
20/19 %
∆ M.S.
20/19 %
Market
Share %
0,42 -0,21 -0,20 0,39 0,20 -0,10 0,14 0,07 -0,04 0,03 0,04 0,06 0,11 -1,51 -0,01
2,42 2,42 2,05 1,78 1,60 1,25 1,23 1,20 0,82 0,73 0,49 0,41 0,34 0,33 0,29

18
4.032 3.804 3.534 3.476
2.099
1.358 1.244 1.150
505 369 270 52 12 6
-49,0
55,1
-56,2
-8,4 -25,1 -34,8
23,7
-50,1
2,0
235,5
-13,7 -1,9
-95,0 -84,2
Volume
∆Volume
20/19 %
∆ M.S.
20/19 %
Market
Share %
-0,12 0,15 -0,16 0,05 0,00 -0,01 -0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
0,29 0,28 0,26 0,25 0,15 0,10 0,09 0,08 0,04 0,03 0,02 0,00 0,00 0,00

19
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
New Car Registrations by Group – Top 15 – December 2020YTD
Italy – New Car Registrations by Group
24,1
16,3
14,8
10,1
6,5
5,4
5,0
4,5
3,7
2,4
2,1
1,2
1,1
0,7
0,5
Top 5: 71,8%
Top 10: 92,8%
-39,4%
-26,8%
-23,7%
-21,7%
-26,9%
-29,7%
-31,3%
-29,8%
-21,6%
-12,6%
-48,6%
-34,6%
-18,4%
-24,7%
-22,7%
332.983
225.052
204.502
139.300
89.558
75.192
68.841
62.597
50.483
33.455
28.365
17.053
14.853
10.096
6.705
FCA
Volkswagen
PSA
Renault
Ford
Toyota
Hyundai Kia
BMW
Daimler
Suzuki
Nissan
Volvo
JLR
Mazda
Honda
Market Share
(%)
DeltaVolume
‘20 vs ‘19
Volume
Group Brand

20
New Car Registrations by FuelType – Top 10 – Petrol and Diesel
Italy – New Car Registrations by Fuel Type








































Diesel
Petrol
December 2020 2020YTD
 Ranking variation compared to previous period
5.076
2.820
2.033
2.031
1.790
1.455
1.412
1.236
1.223
1.070
66.604
22.918
19.204
17.669
17.145
16.266
15.159
14.387
13.850
12.748
1.608
1.565
1.499
1.111
1.099
887
864
793
790
779
COMPASS
500X
QASHQAI
3008
RENEGADE
500L
2008
C3
CAPTUR
KUGA
PANDA
C3
YPSILON
T-CROSS
CORSA
208
POLO
AYGO
500X
T-ROC
COMPASS
500X
RENEGADE
3008
QASHQAI
TIGUAN
T-ROC
TIPO
500L
CLIO
20.439
17.979
17.466
13.810
12.421
12.244
12.057
10.579
10.145
9.159
PANDA
T-ROC
208
T-CROSS
C3
AYGO
500X
2008
RENEGADE
C1

21
2.086
1.257
604
576
560
460
303
280
270
145
New Car Registrations by FuelType – Top 10 – LPG and CNG




















CNG
LPG




















5.048
4.815
3.783
2.977
2.903
2.712
2.579
1.714
1.706
917
697
539
331
293
254
250
182
151
147
61
SANDERO
CAPTUR
YPSILON
DUSTER
CLIO
PANDA
SPORTAGE
500
FIESTA
I10
DUSTER
SANDERO
PANDA
CAPTUR
YPSILON
CLIO
FIESTA
STONIC
PICANTO
SPORTAGE
GOLF
ARONA
POLO
OCTAVIA
PANDA
UP!
KAMIQ
LEON
IBIZA
A3
ARONA
POLO
UP!
GOLF
KAMIQ
IBIZA
PANDA
OCTAVIA
A3
YPSILON
14.153
13.530
10.608
10.354
8.768
8.365
4.715
3.969
3.508
3.370

22
4.101
3.349
3.332
2.267
2.120
1.464
858
754
751
714
New Car Registrations by FuelType – Top 10 – Hybrid and Pure Electric
(*) Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicle (MHEV), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV), Full Hybrid; (**) Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)










Pure
Electric
(**)
Hybrid
(*)




















1.549
1.153
851
683
477
449
366
232
194
177
YARIS
PANDA
YPSILON
500
CAPTUR
PUMA
GOLF
SWIFT
COMPASS
IGNIS
PANDA
YARIS
PUMA
500
YPSILON
C-HR
IGNIS
SWIFT
COROLLA
RAV4
ZOE
FORTWO
MODEL 3
UP!
500
208
KONA
CORSA
LEAF
TWINGO
500
ZOE
MODEL 3
TWINGO
FORTWO
ID.3
UP!
KONA
CORSA
LEAF
30.344
23.072
17.148
15.916
14.385
11.348
10.918
10.078
7.728
6.503
5.470
3.770
3.352
2.839
2.175
1.733
1.464
1.310
1.251
1.172











23
New Car Registrations of Hybrid vs Pure ElectricVehicles
Italy – Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy
68.328
91.540
126.404
280.816
2017 2018 2019 2020
EV RegistrationsTrend
Volume, DeltaYoY, EV Market Share December ‘20YTD
Hybrid and Pure ElectricVehiclesTrend
Volume December ‘20YTD
Delta
YoY
71,1% 34,0% 38,1% 122,2%
M.S. 3,5% 4,8% 6,6% 20,3%
CAGR
11,5%
97,1%
2,9%
2018
5,4%
91,7%
2017
94,6%
8,3%
2019
88,5%
2020
Electric Hybrid
+152,8%
+55,3%
Successful new models
Top selled in December ‘20
Hybrid
– Fiat Panda (+ 3.349 units in December’ 20, +30.344 unitsYTD)
– Ford Puma (+1.464 units in December ’20, +17.148 unitsYTD)

24
Overview of New Car Registrations by Segment
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
Segments Growth in Market Share* Market Share andVolume**
-0,5%
D
«Executive»
+2,5%
B
«Supermini»
+0,1%
E
«Luxury»
-2,5%
C
«Medium»
-0,1%
F
«Ultra Luxury»
171.151
16,4%
37,5%
B
D
4.765
31,6%
A
1,8%
12,4%
C
E
0,3%
F
100,0%
Tot.
226.595
518.135
436.069
24.781
1.381.496
A
«Utility/City»
* Δ% December 2020 YTD / December 2019 YTD; ** Market Share and Volume December 2020 YTD
+0,4%

25
Segment A and Segment B –Top 10 – December 2020YTD
A
“Utility/City”
B
“Supermini”
110.465
31.409
14.387 11.361 11.254 10.724 9.551 8.024 6.061 5.047
PICANTO
UP!
PANDA IGNIS
500 I10
AYGO C1 TWINGO 108
43.033
31.653
29.608 29.299 29.168 28.101
24.534 24.135 23.423 23.121
PUMA
YPSILON CLIO YARIS CORSA
CAPTUR C3 SANDERO 208 T-CROSS
∆ Vol. %
20/19 YTD
∆ Vol. %
20/19 YTD
Segment A has registered a decrease in terms of
MS (-0,5 p.p), while Segment B have registered
an increase (+2,5 p.p. vs December 2019YTD).
But in terms of volumes, both Segment A and
Segment B, in December 2020 have decreased
vs. December 2019 (-29,9% and -22,7%
respectively)
-20,0% -11,5% -11,5% 30,4% -35,6% -6,5% -25,7% 3,5% -33,1% -11,4%
-26,8% -24,1% -19,6% -9,0% -30,0% -20,5% 8,1% 39465,6% -23,9% 8,2%

26
Segment C and Segment D – Top 10 – December 2020YTD
C
“Medium”
D
“Executive”
31.831 31.088
26.872
24.805 24.114
20.569
18.280 17.467 16.586
14.179
T-ROC
500X 3008
COMPASS
RENEGADE DUSTER QASHQAI
GOLF TIPO FOCUS
16.910
11.187
10.421 10.152
8.370
6.504 6.503 6.269 6.220 6.064
A4
TIGUAN KUGA RAV4
Q3 X1 STELVIO GLA OCTAVIA RANGE
ROVER E
∆ Vol. %
20/19 YTD
∆ Vol. %
20/19 YTD
-25,2% -25,4% -24,5% -37,4% -44,8% -24,8% -29,3% -33,9% -38,1% -11,3%
-29,1% -7,2% -12,0% -39,5% -32,3% -11,5% -36,6% -15,5% -18,7% -16,0%
Medium Segment and Executive Segment continue to
have a bad performance registering another
consecutive drop (respectively -33,2% and -25,4%
compared to December 2019). But in terms of MS on
YTD basis Segment C decreased (-2,5 p.p) while
Segment D increased (+0,4 p.p)

27
Segment E and Segment F – Top 10 – December 2020YTD
E
“Luxury”
F
“Ultra Luxury”
1.155
424
332
279 229 223 210 184 183 164
GHIBLI
911 MODEL X
TAYCAN PANAMERA SERIE 7
A8
MODEL S F-TYPE 488
∆ Vol. %
20/19 YTD
∆ Vol. %
20/19 YTD
-42,1% 58,8% -45,8% -16,5% -42,6% -54,5% -29,8% -12,0% -17,4% 47,2%
-0,9% -33,8% NA -47,9% -8,0% -13,9% -6,7% -37,6% 8,3% -4,1%
2.666
2.353
2.117
1.884
1.649 1.569 1.543
1.379
1.066 1.010
Q8
A6 RANGE
ROVER S
X5 CLASSE E
SERIE 5
GLE CAYENNE XC90 X6
Segment E declined (-0.1 p.p) and Segment F has slightly
increased in terms of market shares (+0.1 p.p).While
Segment F, despite COVID-19, has lost only 14,6% (or 815
units sold less vs. December 2019), the drop of Segment
E was more relevant (-29,9% or 10.591 units less vs.
December 2019)

28
Agenda
2 Europe
3 Italy

29
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis on ACI and Unrae data
Focus on Future of After Sales
Italian car fleet, by fuel type
BEV vehicles have had in
important uptake in 2020
(21.961 new cars registered),
but they are still just a small
part of the overall fleet
5,84%
48,47%
0,03%
49,71%
41,94%
5,72%
0,01%
2,36%
6,51%
0,23%
0,85%
42,93%
2,41%
6,18%
0,02%
0,32%
47,24%
0,06%
2,41%
2,44%
43,86%
1,43%
0,02%
0,46%
46,35%
2,42%
44,38%
0,63%
45,96%
2,44%
44,17%
45,67%
6,52%
43,79%
0,13%
5,99%
Petrol
Diesel
LPG
CNG
Hybrid
BEV
2015 2017 2019
2016 2018 2020E
◼ Petrol and Diesel cars are still the
preponderant part of Italian fleet
(36.626.528 in 2020E or 89,5%)
◼ LPG have increased their market
share over the years (2.668.547 in
2020E vs. 2.137.078 in 2015)
◼ CNG vehicles have remained
almost stable (883.190 in 2015 vs.
996.953 in 2020E)
◼ The fastest uptake is related to
Hybrid vehicles that have almost
doubled in the last year (334.568 in
2019 vs. 585.297 in 2020E)
After Sales market is still operating mostly with ICE vehicles. Nr. of hybrid
vehicles has increased recently. BEVs are still the minimum part

30
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis on electronicdesign.com and Jeff Phillips "Hybrid Vehicles: The worst of Both Worlds?" data
Alternative fuel impact on Powertrain complexity
Hybrid vehicles "heritage" the needs of ICEs but also acquire BEV service needs. But will the
perspectives of Aftersales market will remain positive when BEVs will take over?
Complexity
(#
of
parts
and
opportunities
for
failure)
Time
ICE Era Hybrid Era BEV Era
Vehicle powertrain is a mature,
well-understood technology
Combination of ICE with new
electric powertrain components
drives up complexity
Elimination of ICE components &
increasing BEV knowledge simplify
vehicle powertrain to a lower level
than previous ICE level
Internal combustion
Engine (ICE)
Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Plug-In-Hybrid
Battery Electric
Vehicle (BEV)
Engine
Clutch
Transmission
Diff Diff
Transmission
Clutch
Battery
pack
Inverter
Engine
Small
motor /
Generator
Diff
Transmission
Clutch
Battery
pack
Inverter
Engine
Motor
generator
Motor/Generator
Diff
Battery
pack
Inverter
Engine
Motor
Generator
Battery pack
Inverter
Diff
Hybrid vehicles, includes both
internal combustion and electric-
energy-generation components,
which substantially increases
vehicle complexity
The complexity of hybrid vehicles, which MS is growing during last years,
creates positive perspectives for Aftersales market in short-medium term

31
Source: Arthur D Little analysis on ICDP Executive Briefing data
ICE vs. BEV aftersales needs
Maintenance, mechanical repair and tire replacement markets will not be affected equally
Market Share YTD increase / decrease
100% (components needed for ICE vehicles
Gearbox and coupling
Engine lubricants
Timing belt, ignition
Exhaust system
Engine electrical system
(starter, generator, etc.)
Brake pads Braking system
Shock absorbers
Air conditioning
Steering and axles
Electrical system
(wires, dashboards,
electic devices, ecc.)
Cooling system
Tyres
0% need for BEVs 60-70% need for BEVs 70-80% need for BEVs 100% need for BEVs 100+ % need for BEVs
No needs correlated to
engine (e.g., oil change,
timing bet replacement)
Brake regeneration system will most likely save drivers
from having to use the brakes themselves to slow the
car down so often
Same needs for all types
of vehicles
BEVs have higher torque
and are on average
heavier than ICEs
ICE
BEV
The impact of BEV technology, though, on aftersales needs would, most
likely, differ from one vehicle component to another

32
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis on ICDP Executive Briefing data
Possible impacts of BEVs Era on aftersales Operations & Revenues
The size of the business drop in short-medium term will depend on the dynamics of BEVs Fleet MS
Change in AS generated by BEVs
Revenues
Maintenance Repairs Tires
Volume of
operations
Possible
impact
Aftermarket
segment
◼ Possible drop of revenue
due to the reduction of
cost for each maintenance
operations (BEVs vs. ICEs)
according to OEMS
◼ The number of operations
will most likely remain the
same due to equivalent
service interval
recommendations
◼ No obvious reason to think
that repairing operations
(besides specific jobs on
electric motor or battery
packs) could be more
expensive for BEVs
◼ Most likely there will be a
drop in the number of
repairs due to the new
technology adopted in
BEVs
◼ Most likely, in most of the
cases, BEVs will use the
same replacement tires as
ICEs
◼ More torque and the
weight of BEV vehicles will
mostly lead to more tire
wear for this type cars
1 2 3
1 2 3
Over the next few years the gradual growth of BEVs will lead to a decline in
Maintenance and Repair businesses,whileTyre sector might benefit from change

33
Regular maintenance of BEV vehicles appears to have lower costs given the
lower complexity of this type of cars
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis on Arval, "4 Ruote Professional"
Regular maintenance costs – Diesel vs BEV
Peugeot 2008 example
Assumptions - 1-15.000 km/year; maintenance in 3 years Assumptions – 2-30.000 km/year; maintenance in 4 years
90 62
128
100
81
Diesel
20
318
BEV
163
-49%
Spare parts cost
Labor cost Fluids cost
203
83
184
162
154
549
BEV
Diesel
277
40
-50%
Fluids cost
Labor cost Spare parts cost
This decline can only be offset by a greater focus on services and a more proactive and commercial
approach by after sales personnel.
1 2 3
€ €

34
The number of Repairs for BEV vehicles will drop given the smaller number
of moving parts and progressive adoption of ADAS*
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis on Arval, "4 Ruote Professional", ICDP and VDI Wisses Forum data; *) ADAS – Advanced Driver Assistance Systems
Focus on Future of After Sales Maintenance Repairs Tires
1 2 3
ICE vs. BEV complexity
Peugeot example
# engine and gearbox spare parts - BEV vs ICE
181 171
49
2008 BlueHDi
100 CV S&S
2008 PureTech
130 S&S
e-2008 136 CV
Diesel Petrol BEV
Possible impacts of AVs and ADAS on aftersales
Potential crush reduction by 2030
Automated
emergency braking - 38%
Forward collision
warning - 8%
Blind spot
monitoring - 7%
Lane departure
warning - 3%
Adaptive
headlights - 2.5%
◼ Sensor and camera
driver assistance
technologies are already
presented in the latest
car generations and it
starts to make effect on
Aftermarket
◼ Such features as cruise
control, blind spot and
lane departure
monitoring, automated
braking and other
feature already reduce
likehood of accidents
In the long term ADAS will likely have the biggest effect in the body repair sector thanks to the decline in the volume and severity of
accidents. But their widespread adoption will require the increase of skills and equipment needed to repair and calibrate them when
accidents do happen.The increase of complexity will bring toward reinforcement of OEM-approved bodyshops and larger independents.

35
BEV tires wear out faster than ICE car tires. It will lead to an increased
rate of tire wear bringing more benefits to non-OEM related operators
Source: Arthur D. Little Analysis on Osservatorio Autopromotec, Continental corporate website and Cnet.com data; *) BEV Era: Hypothesis of Italian Car Fleet composed of 100% BEV vehicles
Focus on Future of After Sales Maintenance Repairs Tires
1 2 3
◼ EVs are 20-30% heavier than
ICE cars because of the massive
electric battery.Their weight
places additional strain on
electric car tires
◼ According to estimations, a
standard road tire might wear
out 20-30% faster when
installed on an EV
◼ Likely it will bring more
benefits to non-OEM
operators as far as tier changing
and maintenance operations are
prevalent in their business
Tiers contribution in After Sales market in Italy
The positive impact of a higher number of tire changes operations might not compensate revenue lost
generated by the switch to BEVs: the market might reduce its size due to the relevant the loss of
revenues that come from Maintenance and Repair
91%
9%
BEV Era*
21%
79%
2019
44,7
25,5
-43%
€ Bln
Maintenance and Repair Tiers
Tiers Market has only 9% of the Market Share stable
over the last years. Maintenance and Repair generate
the preponderant part of revenues.
Even if the Tires
segment might
generate more
revenues in the future
(+25%), the drop of
Maintenance and
Repair could be
severe (up to -50%)

36
Agenda
2 Europe
3 Italy

37
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2020 (1/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
A
B
C
D
F
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
E-Tron
A3
Tonale
C5 Aircross
X6
Serie 2 Active
Tourer
Q5
Q4 e-Tron
M 3 X5 M
Serie 4
Coupè
C4
Roma
SF 90 812 GTS
Panda Mild
Hybrid
Giulia Plug-in Stelvio Plug-In
A5
iX3
DS 9
F8 Spider
500 Full Electric
500 Mild Hybrid
Sandero
◼ The launch plans announced by
OEMs could be delayed/reversed
due to the contingent market
situation

38
F
G
H
I
J
K
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Kuga
XCeed
Wrangler
Grand Cherokee
Renegade
Compass
Mustang
Mach-E
Explorer
Plug-In
i 10
Jazz Hybrid
F Type XJ Electric
e-Soul
situation

39
L
M
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Road Rover
GLA
MX-30
E-Class S-Class
GLS
2 Hybrid
Ghibli
Mini Full Electric
UX 300e
Ypsilon Mild
Hybrid
Urus Plug-In
situation

40
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
M
N
O
P
R
S
(P)
Zoe
El Born
Mokka X
508 Plug-In
3008 Plug-In
Insignia
Corsa-e
Spacestar
ASX
Clio E-Tech
Captur E-tech
Leon
Cupra
Formentor
Octavia
situation

41
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
S
T
V
(P)
Model Y
ID.3
1) EQ fortwo
2) EQ forfour
Yaris
XV Hybrid
Vitara Hybrid
S-Cross Hybrid
Mirai
Rav 4 Plug-In
ID.4
XC 40 Recharge
situation

Arthur D. Little has been at the forefront of innovation since 1886.
We are an acknowledged thought leader in linking strategy, innovation
and transformation in technology-intensive and converging industries.
We navigate our clients through changing business ecosystems to
uncover new growth opportunities.We enable our clients to build
innovation capabilities and transform their organizations.
Our consultants have strong practical industry experience combined
with excellent knowledge of key trends and dynamics.Arthur D. Little is
present in the most important business centers around the world.
We are proud to serve most of the Fortune 1.000 companies, in
addition to other leading firms and public sector organizations.
For further information please visit www.adlittle.com.
Copyright © Arthur D. Little 2020.All rights reserved.
Contacts:
Fabrizio Arena
Partner
Tel.: +39 06 68 882 344
Fax: +39 335 123 2387
e-mail: arena.fabrizio@adlittle.com
Arthur D. Little S.p.A.
Via Sardegna 40
00187 Rome – Italy
Tel.: +39 06 68 882 1
Fax: +39 06 68 882 322
Corso Monforte 54
20122 Milan – Italy
Tel.: +39 02 67 376 1
Fax: +39 02 67 376 251

Arthur D. Little Automotive report December 2020

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Similar to Arthur D. Little Automotive report December 2020

Similar to Arthur D. Little Automotive report December 2020 (14)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Arthur D. Little Automotive report December 2020