Automotive industry is in the middle of a perfect storm.
We analyzed the current situation and provided useful insight on future scenario, in order to better understand how to face the crisis and build the “New normal”.
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What Causes BMW Chassis Stabilization Malfunction Warning To Appear
How OEMs can build the "new normal
1. Covid-19: how to face the crisis
and build the “new normal”
May 2020
2. 2
Agenda
1 Covid-19 impact and global automotive market outlook
2 How OEMs can face the crisis
3 The OEMs agenda towards the “new normal”
3. 3
Agenda
1 Covid-19 impact and global automotive market outlook
1.1 Possible developments based on past crises experiences
1.2 Automotive market 2020-2025 scenario analysis
2 How OEMs can face the crisis
3 The OEMs agenda towards the “new normal”
4. 4
2015
2018
2016
2017
2019
2020
16,4
14,5
12,1
16,1
16,9
23,4
17,6
18,4
21,6
20,0
14,5
23,4
17,1
15,4
12,2
23,7
15,4
16,6
17,117,1
24,4
16,0
24,4
16,9
15,915,9
17,1
16,8
23,7
16,0
16,6
23,3
20,0
16,8
Covid-19 is having a disruptive effect on automotive market in all the
main economies with gaps vs pre-crisis forecasts for 2020 up to 31%
Possible developments based on past crises experiences
-21.1%
-31.0%
Jan ’20 forecast As of today forecast Expected Covid-19 effect
Covid-19 impact on Passenger Car Sales 2015-2020F*
Units, Mio
Pre-Covid:
+7.8% vs. 2019
Post-Covid:
-15.0% vs. 2019
Pre-Covid:
-1.3% vs. 2019
Post-Covid:
-26.6% vs. 2019
Pre-Covid:
+8.7% vs. 2019
Post-Covid:
-24.9% vs. 2019
-25.7%
Source: * Arthur D. Little analysis on IHS early May ’20 forecast light vehicle sales. ** Western Europe and Central Europe: Austria, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia; Cyprus; Czech Republic; Denmark;
Estonia; Finland; France; Germany; Greece; Hungary; Iceland; Ireland; Italy; Latvia; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Macedonia; Malta; Netherlands; Norway; Poland; Portugal; Romania; Serbia; Slovakia;
Slovenia; Spain; Sweden; Switzerland; United Kingdom;
**
2020 Forecast
5. 5
V-Shape:
Immediate
recovery of the
car market
The history of past crises says that car sales are more than proportionally
impacted by GDP decline and generally take 1-2 years more to recover
Possible developments based on past crises experiences
▪ Past economic crises show that
vehicle sales fluctuate in line
with the overall economy
▪ This pattern varies slightly by
geography but generally the
declines in car sales were
more intense than the overall
GDP contraction and the
recovery took longer
▪ Only in China the recovery
has a “V” shape
▪ Covid-19 impact will be
deeper that past crises
considering not only the car
demand decline but also the
supply-side shock due to
lockdowns and preventive
closures
GDP and car sales curve correlation
W-Shape:
Multiple bounds
preventing overall
long-term economic
stabilization L-Shape:
Severe decline
without any return
to growth for many
years
Time
1-2
years gap
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
U-Shape:
Car market recovery
delayed 1-2 years
w/r to GDP
GDP
Car sales
6. 6
Considering past crises, in Europe car sales suffered more than the overall
economy returning to pre-crisis levels after 3 years
Notes: * Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and UK. ** Scrapping premium (“Abwrackprämie” in German) as an incentive for car
buyers significantly increased car sales especially in Germany; Western and Northern Europe without Germany shrunk by 10%.
Source: ACEA
Possible developments based on past crises experiences
GDP Car sales
Crisis Description Impact
EMS crisis
+ Gulf war
EMS crisis and limited consumer credit availability and
Gulf war raised oil prices
-6%
1 year to recover
-13%
3 years to recover
Financial crisis Consumer credit market collapse impacted middle class
-10%
3 years to recover
-5% (-10%)**
3 years to recover
Eurozone crisis
Several eurozone member states were unable to repay
or refinance their government debt or bail out banks
-4%
1 year to recover
-6%
2.5 years to recover
COVID crisis
Supply and demand shock impacting lower and middle
class, recession hits a stagnating new car market
-5% to -10%*
1-1.5 years to recover*
-20 to -35%*
3 years to recover*
1
2
3
Car sales crises last up to
3 years and exceed GDP decline
*
7. 7
In the US crises showed car sales drop lasting twice the GDP decline and
be more severe than in Europe
Notes: *Consensus expectations for annualized figures and ADL extrapolation as of April 2020, GDP and Car Sales Compare Approximate
Annual Peaks vs Recovery
Source: World Bank, US BEA, Consensus Estimates from 10+ Banks and Economic Forecasts, Arthur D. Little
Possible developments based on past crises experiences
GDP Car sales
Crisis Description Impact
Early ’80s
recession
Federal reserve interest rate hike made financing
unaffordable for most customers
-2%
1 year to recover
-20%
2 years to recover
S&L crisis
+ Gulf war
S&L and bank failures limited consumer credit availability,
Gulf war raised oil prices
-0.1%
1 year to recover
-11%
2 years to recover
Financial crisis
Consumer credit market collapse impacted middle class.
Overall lengthened car ownership from 4 to 6 years
-3%
2 years to recover
-35%
3 years to recover
COVID crisis
Supply and demand shock impacting lower and middle
class, financial institutions in stronger position vs. ’08,
significantly older used car park could limit downside
-5% to -15%*
1-2 years to recover*
-20% to -40%*
≥3 years to recover*
1
2
3
Car sales recessions are on average
2x longer and 10x worse
8. 8
China didn’t experience significant impacts. However car market has started
to suffer in 2018 for stricter limitations, Covid is giving an additional hit
Possible developments based on past crises experiences
GDP Car sales
Crisis Description Impact
SARS
2002/2003
First Corona-induced pandemic, impact on tourism and
Chinese economy
+9.6%
No significant impact
+36%
Boost of car sales
Financial crisis
2008
Credit crisis in western economies, Chinese GDP
growth reduced to 9%
+9.5%
No significant impact
+3.6%
Decreased growth,
strong catch up
Car market
decline
Lower new car sales due to limited registrations and less
favorable policies
+6.5%
Reduced GDP growth
-8%
2 years of car
market decline
COVID crisis
Very significant economic supply and demand shocks,
expected to be shorter than in Europe and the US, but
with consequences for exports
+3% to +5%* -10% to -20%
1
2
3
Negative trend on car market
expected to continue
– political interventions decisiveNotes: *e.g. China International Capital Corporation forecast from end of March (2.6% for 2020) included Corona-impact, Government economists stay
with original forecast of 6%
Source: IHS, World Bank
9. 9
Agenda
1 Covid-19 impact and global automotive market outlook
1.1 Possible developments based on past crises experiences
1.2 Automotive market 2020-2025 scenario analysis
2 How OEMs can face the crisis
3 The OEMs agenda towards the “new normal”
10. 10
◼ Factors behind the earlier convergence
– Early commercialization of vaccines and therapeutic drugs
– Early clarification of the mechanism of deterioration
– Expansion of medical resources
It is expected that it will take several years for the economy to converge,
while the economic activity will have to be restrained during this period
Automotive market 2020-2025 scenario analysis
Source: * Kissler et al., Science 14 Apr 2020 noted that social distance will be needed until 2022. Also, it was mentioned that there is a risk of relapse even after convergence. In developed countries, it may take about 5
years for group immunity to be established by natural infection (Mizuho Securities bajosman Three Report). Prepared ADL from various second information such as Kissler et al., Science 14 Apr 2020.
Covid-19 Convergence Scenario
Currently Partial convergence:1 to 5 years *
Hour
Convergence
◼ Delay factor of convergence
– Delay in vaccine development
– Reinfection was detected shortly after recovery.
– Drastic change in the nature of the mutation
Number
of patients
Limitations
of medical
resources
Economic
activity
Notes
◼ Development of vaccines and therapeutic agents
and expansion of medical resources may
shorten the duration
◼ As with seasonal influenza, infection and
convergence will be repeated *
◼ Economic activity is limited (with the Covid-19):
– UK strategy: repeated deregulation
– Limited enforcement of regulations and sustained economic
activity
– Cluster strategy
– Partial commitment (China’s strategy)
◼ Economic recovery (post Covid-19 era):
– Herd immunity acquired by vaccination or natural infection
– Pre-Covid economic activity resumed with reduced risk of
infection and aggravation
11. 11
Automotive market 2020-2025 scenario analysis
Deteriorating performance in the automotive industry
Spread of the new coronavirus
Restrictions on going out
Decline in automobile demand
Is a financial
crisis possible?
CCorona direct
strike industry
BHow long
will it last?
A
Reduction and suspension of production
of completed vehicles and parts
Decrease in income (wage
decrease, unemployment)
Restrictions on
consumption behavior
From the decline in stock
prices
Inverse asset effect
1 2 3
Demand
stimulation
measures
Compensation
for absence
from work
cash benefits
Economic
slowdown
(decrease in
household
consumption)
Urban
blockade
Request for
voluntary
restraint, etc.
Govern-
ment
response
Scheme of Covid-19 impact on automotive industry
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Three major factors limit the automotive demand determining the decline
of the industry, government response is crucial
12. 12
Automotive market 2020-2025 scenario analysis
Depending on the Covid-19 convergence time, the income decline and
the development of a financial crisis, 3 scenarios might occur
Corona
convergence
scenario
Economic
scenario
Downside
(Expansion to Financial Crisis)
Base scenario : Partial
convergence of 1 to 5 years
Base
(Low Flying in the Real Economy)
Upside
The corona is suppressed by the first
wave, and the following elements recover
for a short time.
Prolonged response to Corona,
widespread and prolonged decline in
demand
Real Economic Slump Spreads to Financial
Economy
Decline in income
Restrictions on
consumption behavior
Impactontherealeconomy
(householdconsumption)
Decline in demand for workers in the
Corona direct strike industry
(Same as ←. Deeper)
← In addition to the decrease in demand
by other industrial workers
Decline in demand for restricted outings
Due to the market crash
Extreme decline in the demand of wealthy
people
Decline in demand from wealthy people
due to prolonged market stagnation
Inverse asset effect
Financial institutions' loan losses and
credit instability
Impact on the financial economy
(Lengthening the time) (Same as ←)
Short-term decline in the demand of
wealthy people due to the deteriorating
market
1
2
3
Automobile
demand
scenario
Prolonged slump in sales due to a
sharp decline in purchasing power
The decline in demand spread
throughout the country and to all
workers in all industries, and it is
time for recovery.
Temporary decline in sales, mainly
in restricted outings areas,
recovered quickly
IF THE FIRST WAVE STOPS AND EARLY
CONVERGENCE IS ACHIEVED.
IF THE CONVERGENCE IS WORSE THAN
EXPECTED.
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
13. 13
Automotive market 2020-2025 scenario analysis
Due to the prolonged Corona convergence and the persisting financial crisis,
according to the Base Scenario, 2019 volumes will be achieved again in 2023
89,7
95,9
99,0
101,5
89,7
84,2
95,8
89,7
68,4 69,1
88,8
92,1
89,4
91,4
94,0
97,1
99,6
101,5
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
74,8
CY19 CY22E
72,5
CY20E
77,4
CY21E
89,1
92,2
91,4
86,5
CY23E CY24E
99,4
CY25E
Global LightVehicle Sales Scenarios (2012-2025F)
Base
Upside
Downside
Pre-Covid forecast*
Source: * IHS early May ‘20 forecast. ** Reuters News on April 20, 2020
LCM CY20 Forecast : 71.0**
IHS CY20 Forecast : 69.6*
Units, Mio
▪ Lower impact on 2020 volumes with a
recovery to 2019 level by 2021 due to
early convergence of overall economy
Upside
Base
▪ Moderate recovery on pre-crisis
volumes across CY 22 and 23,
differentiated by geography
Base
▪ Due to the prolonged effects of the
financial crisis, the recovery is slow
even after restrictions are lifted; last
year’s level will be achieved only by the
end of the forecast window
Downside
14. 14
Automotive market 2020-2025 scenario analysis
The longer the duration of the convergence period, the more relevant
will be the available income factor respect the restrictions on consumes
Upside Base Downside
-9%
-8%
-4%
-5%
-16%
-3%
-2%
-5%
-1%
-6% -4% -2%
-24%
-4%
-18%
-10%
-6%
-2%
-13%
-2%
-5%
-3%
-1%
-2%
-1%
-1%
-19%
-3% -2% -1%
-3%
-13%
-4%
-16%
-9%
-3%
-11%
-5%
-3%
-18%
-11%
-8%
-2%-2%
-8% -7%
-2%
-24% -24%
-11%
-9%
Decrease
Number
(Mio units)
Rate of
decrease
CY20E CY21E CY22E CY23E CY24E CY25E CY20E CY21E CY22E CY23E CY24E CY25E CY20E CY21E CY22E CY23E CY24E CY25E
0 0 0 0 0
-4.17 -2.30 -1.75 -1.19 -0.61 -0
-1.60 0 0 0 0 0
-11.23
-17.00 -2.30 -1.75 -1.19 -0.61 -0
-14.10 -8.02 -4.12 0 0 0
-4.47 -7.29 -4.77 -5.38 -3.77 -2.10
-2.60 -1.38 -0.88 -0.35 0 0
-21.18 -16.69 -9.77 -5.73 -3.77 -2.10
-14.10 -8.02 -4.12 0 0 0
-4.47 -11.69 -9.89 -8.14 -8.30 -6.96
-2.60 -2.67 -2.54 -2.42 -2.47 -2.51
-21.18 -22.38 -16.55 -10.55 -10.77 -9.47Total
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Restrictions on consumption behaviour
Decline in income
Inverse asset effect
15. 15
Automotive market 2020-2025 scenario analysis
The low potential growth rate and the high elasticity of household
consumption with respect automobile demand widely affect mature markets
CAGR***Simulation Results (Base Case Sales by Region)
CY 19 to 22 CY 19 to 25
89,7
95,8
3,7
3,9
5,7
16,8
4,5
6,1
18,5
2,8
25,3
30,6
4,6
6,8
4,5
CY21E
20,6
CY25E
17,820,3
5,4
6,0
CY19 CY20E
2,8
3,3
4,4
CY23E
15,6
3,9
5,6
3,4
5,3
4,9
14,2
20,2
3,3
3,8
5,2
4,0
20,95,3
16,2
15,0
23,8
4,0
4,0
4,5
5,7
26,2
5,5
4,9
CY22E
4,9
20,0
28,5
4,8
5,4
5,2
18,7
29,6
CY24E
6,2
21,3
19,4
68,4
74,8
84,2
91,4
99,4
1.2% 3.2%
-6.1% -0.8%
-3.6% 0.5%
-0.5% 2.8%
-1.0% 3.4%
1.7% 6.6%
2.6% 6.1%
-2.1% 1.7%
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis *ASEAN + Oceania, ** 2 countries, India + Pakistan, *** CAGR : compound annual growth rate
-5.7% -1.5%
Greater China
Japan/KoreaNorth America
Europe South East Asia*
South America
Middle East/Africa
Indian Subcontinent **
Units, Mio
16. 16
Automotive market 2020-2025 scenario analysis
The huge investments required to face the current crisis could bring OEMs
to review their strategies
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Key MobilityTrends
New safety and social
distancing measures are strong
inhibitors of shared mobility,
potentially compromising its
future also in the mid-long
term
The huge investments for the
EV offensive could be
postponed and reallocated to
support current stocks
disposal (highly composed by
ICE vehicles). Public incentives
(at today focused on EV) could
be extended to new ICE cars
Shared
Mobility
Electrification
Autonomous
Driving
Connected
Services
What will be the impact of Covid-19 on OEMs’ strategy?
PossiblestrongimpactsofCovid-19
17. 17
Agenda
1 Covid-19 impact and global automotive market outlook
2 How OEMs can face the crisis
3 The OEMs agenda towards the “new normal”
18. 18
In order to tackle this extraordinary crisis, OEMs and NSCs need to act
fast and also with a mid-long term view…
Source: Arthur D. Little
How OEMs can face the crisis
Main considerations
◼ Unprecedented crisis, historic data cannot support to manage it.The impact on the demand is
brutal, however the recovery might start (hopefully) soon
◼ The time required for a full recovery is uncertain and variable by geography (China example
could be misleading for “traditional economies”)
◼ The risk for the companies is to focus their effort on the short term adapting quickly their
capabilities and their offers, without thinking about mid term recovery plan and next steps
◼ Companies need to structure their “War Room” differently than usual crisis management approaches in
order to:
‒ not only move beyond limiting the negative impact of the crisis (and sometime just
thinking on how to survive)
‒ but also take advantage of this situation to improve their competitive position.As
consequence of this crisis new business models are emerging and could change the way people
work and live even when we will be back to “normal life”
19. 19
…arranging a “War Room” considering 5 key points
Source: Arthur D. Little
How OEMs can face the crisis
The 5 key points to manage the crisis
◼ Free cash: free cash-flow management is critical. It is not just a question of surviving, but foremost a
question of strategic agility to enable to leverage on the fast recovery and fast future growth
◼ Fast adaptation: changes to be done as soon as possible (immediately) in terms of capabilities and
offers. Pragmatism, agility and quick implementation remain the golden rules
◼ Fast recovery: this situation could end within 3-4 months from now (based on the Chinese experience
and ADL’s main scenario), the recovery phase needs to be thought of as from day 0. The ability to
anticipate the recovery and be better prepared than competitors can create a long lasting advantage
◼ Fast forward looking: structural decision could be made to be able to generate a long lasting
competitive advantage.This long term vision necessitates to have from day 0 a strategic vision
developed: it requires the right choice in resource allocation when the resources are under pressure
and when uncertainty is high
◼ Forward Organization & Communication: a large proportion of people are now interacting in
“virtual” ways. Keeping momentum and motivation in the new digital world, developing new process /
ways of working leveraging emerging technologies.This requires a strong focus on the short term
(especially on communication towards employees), but also needs to be seen as a way to implement
faster new effective digital organizations & behaviors
1
2
3
4
5
20. 20
As shown by a recent ADL survey to Automotive&Manufacturing CEOs,
OEMs have started to react working in particular on FastAdaptation
Source: Arthur D. Little survey to Automotive&Manufacturing CEOs
How OEMs can face the crisis – The voice of CEOs
Fast Recovery
Fast Forward Looking
Fast Adaptation
Forward Organization &
Communication
Free Cash
75%
56%
58%
92%
69%
31%
63%
60%
23%
53%
24%
29%
56%
47%
35%
Adapt operations to quickly restore/protect P&L and ensure deliveries
Establish risks and mitigation plan regarding operations ramp-up
Forecast scenarios for the recovery plan
Actions to ensure workforce health & safety
Review implication for business model of the "new world"
Specific actions to free cash in the short term
Cash-flow forecast process 6–18 months
Develop new ways to reach customers
Assess free cash needs for recovery and forward looking
Develop specific offer/marketing and productivity plan
Frame uncertainty in terms of customer demand and environment
Review strategy, investment and development plan
Implement new communication channel & empower critical ressources
Scale up new digital ways of working
Embed the new ways of working in the regular organization
done planned not considered (yet)
However there are areas such as “Free Cash” and “Fast Recovery” that are now a key priority to assure
system financial sustainability and to speed up the restart
21. 21
Agenda
1 Covid-19 impact and global automotive market outlook
2 How OEMs can face the crisis
3 The OEMs agenda towards the “new normal”
22. 22
Liquidity, issue for all the
automotive supply chain players
and in particular for the retail
network
Processes for production,
logistic, sales and after sales to
be aligned to safety and social
distancing measures
Customers with changed
characteristics and needs to be
addressed in a different way
The OEMs agenda towards the “new normal”
Source: Arthur D. Little
The OEMs agenda towards the “new normal”
Short term Mid-long term
New customer journey
for sales and service
leveraging digitalization
Future retail with new sales
and service formats and retail
network engagement models
Shift in ownership, towards
more flexible models of car’s
use, subscription and financing
and mobility
Key issues
for OEMs
Ensure quick and effective restart Prepare the “new normal”
23. 23
OEMs need to assure the financial stability of the system, implement safe
processes and address the new emerging needs of customers
Source: Arthur D. Little
The OEMs agenda towards the “new normal” – Short term
◼ Health check / stress test of the retail network to understand its sustainability and
liquidity needs
◼ Identification of viable “ordinary” measures (e.g. payment conditions) to be adopted to
sustain dealerships and other key players of the supply chain
◼ Definition of “extraordinary” measures to inject liquidity into the system
Short term
Liquidity
Processes
Customers
Focus
◼ Assure all the necessary safety devices to minimize contagion risks
◼ Adapt internal and customer facing environments to all sanitary and social distancing
measures required
◼ Review marketing & communication activities focusing on digital channels
◼ Adapt sales and after sales processes in order to assure a safe interaction with customers
◼ Understand the new customer’s characteristics and needs to be addressed (B2B and
B2C)
◼ Develop new offers and pricing/payment solutions to meet customers difficulties and
define a proper communication strategy to promote them considering the new context
◼ Review of the Communication&Marketing Plan in terms of timing and channels
(increasing the incidence on digital)
Not exhaustive
24. 24
The “new normal” will be very different from the last decade with some
trends reinforced and accelerated by the changes induced by the crisis
Source: Arthur D. Little
The OEMs agenda towards the “new normal” – Mid-long term
◼ Leverage the momentum of crisis-induced change to prepare the organization for the era
of digitalization “from head to toe” (i.e., from HQ to dealers)
◼ Reshape the journey using new sales models, channels and tools to sell cars, after sales
and mobility services potentially with an increasing direct role of NSC
◼ Leverage new profit opportunities and generate higher revenues from the aftermarket
◼ Rethink the way to communicate and engage the customer focusing on digital channels
Mid-long term
New customer
journey
Future retail
Shift in
ownership
Focus
◼ Rethink the activities and the role of the retail network in “physical” and “digital” sales
and redesign the engagement model (e.g. towards an “agent model”)
◼ Review the market coverage strategy (e.g. dealers/stores/workshops density/capillarity
and locations) and sales/after sales formats (e.g. digitalized, emotional, specialized, etc.)
◼ New “flexible” models of car use based on subscriptions,private mid-long term rental or
leasing
◼ Solutions focused on mobility and not on the car (which may eventually be changed
during the period according to customer’s needs)
◼ Offering extension to new/additional services/products related to customer’s mobility
needs
Not exhaustive
25. 25
Where Arthur D. Little can help you to address the key topics
The OEMs agenda towards the “new normal” – Where ADL can support OEMs
Future retail
▪ Evolution of the engagement model for the
retail network (e.g. direct sales, agent model)
▪ Definition of the new sales & aftersales
formats and development of the new market
coverage strategy
Shift in ownership
▪ Development of new mobility services and
definition of related business models
▪ Definition of the sales proposition of the new
services offered
Customer Journey
▪ Digitalization of the Customer Journey (sales
and after sales)
▪ Develop on line sales models
▪ Develop a new independent aftermarket
strategy
Liquidity
▪ Analyze possible scenarios and the impacts on
retail network and supply chain financial health
▪ Review the retail network structure
▪ Define ordinary/extraordinary measures to
sustain the financial health of OEMs, NSCs and
dealerships
Processes
▪ Analyze the areas at risk according to current
regulation and identify the intervention
priorities and alternatives
▪ Develop new “Covid-free” processes
Customers
▪ Update/review customer profiling
▪ Redesign the sales proposition
War Room
• ▪ Establish a virtual war room to manage urgencies and boost the recovery with an eye also on mid-long term priorities
▪ Cross-departments steering and monitoring