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Global Automotive Report
Analysis of New Car Registrations
March 2018
2
Global Market Overview
* Δ% in Volume March 2018 YTD / March 2017 YTD among markets with more than 250.000 new car registrations
Executive Summary
India: India registered a solid +10,3% in
new car registration in Q1 2018 (vs Q1
2018).Thanks to this result, since march
2018 India has surpassed Germany to
become the 4th biggest market
Top 3 Markets*
+22,7%
+12,8%
+10,3%India
Russia
Brazil
Brazil: in Q1 2018, Brazil
continued the trend
registered in 2017, with a
+12,8 in the first three
months of 2018 (But still
far from the level of 2014)
Russia:As for 2017, in Q1 2018
Russia registered the highest
volume increase among BRIC
countries (+22,7% vs Q1 ‘17).
3
Analysis of New Car Registrations in Europe and Italy
* EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland); ** Δ% March 2018 / March 2017
Executive Summary
 Areas: North-East -2,2%, North-West -6,8%, Islands -7,9%, Centre -8,4% and South
-10,3% in volume in March 2018 compared to March 2017
 Customer segments: Business +12,2%, Fleet +12,0% and Retail -11,4% in volume in
March 2018YTD compared to March 2017YTD
 Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, high increases for Jeep +87,0%, Dacia +22,6% and
Citroen +22,0% in March 2018YTD compared to March 2017YTD
 Premium brands: among the Top 15, Alfa Romeo +20,9%, Mercedes-Benz +3,0% and
Audi +0,4% in volume in March 2018YTD compared to March 2017YTD
 Top 3 Countries by growth in new registrations: Netherlands +15,3%, Poland +4,5% and
France +2,2% in volume in March 2018 compared to March 2017
 Top 3 Countries by market share: Germany 20,5% (+0,7), Italy16,8% (-2,5) and France
13,4% (-0,3) in March 2018YTD compared to March 2017YTD
 Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, high increases for Skoda +11,7%, Peugeot +9,4%
and Hyundai 7,5% in March 2018YTD compared to March 2017YTD
 Premium brands: Mercedes-Benz +0,9%, BMW -2,8% and Audi -3,4% in volume in March
2018YTD compared to March 2017YTD
Europe*
Italy
-5,2%**
-5,8%**
4
Agenda
1 Global Market Overview
2 Europe
3 Italy
4 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric)
5 New Car Models Launches in Italy
6 APPENDIX: Focus on ElectricVehicles CO2 Emissions
5
Global Overview –Top 10 Markets and Europe*
Source: Arthur D. Little Analysis on IHS Global Insight Data and on market data
Global Market Overview
Highlights
2018YTD vs. 2017YTD, DeltaVolume vs. Delta Market Share, Market Size
Bubble Size – New car
registrations in 2018 YTD
∆ % Volume 18 vs. 17
∆ % Market Share
18/17
-10,0% -5,0% 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0%
1,5%
1,0%
0,5%
0,0%
-0,5%
* EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland)
-1,1%
6
Top 5 Brands analysis in major economies
Source: Arthur D. Little Analysis on IHS Global Insight and on market data
Global Market Overview
Italy and Europe* Major Economies*
5
2
1
4
3
M.S. % CML
(Top 5)
Total market
2018 YTD
Δ% 18/17
45%
15%
11%
7%
6%
891.742
***
+10,3%
84%
India
22%
11%
9%
8%
7%
371.112
***
+22,7%
57%
RussiaEU28+EFTA
11%
7%
7%
6%
5%
4.282.134
+0,6%
36%
**
Italy
19%
8%
7%
6%
6%
46%
574.130
-1,5%
* Period January-March 2018; ** Opel includes Vauxhall New Car Registrations; *** IHS Global Insight estimated value
19%
15%
13%
9%
8%
64%
508.176
***
+12,8%
Brazil
13%
6%
5%
5%
5%
6.153.426
***
+6,9%
34%
China
30%
16%
13%
12%
11%
1.336.884
***
+0,3%
82%
Japan
13%
13%
12%
9%
9%
3.971.628
***
+1,1%
56%
US
7
Top 3 Premium Brands analysis in major economies
Source: Arthur D. Little Analysis on IHS Global Insight and on market data
Global Market Overview
* Period January-March 2018; ** IHS Global Insight estimated value
3
1
2
M.S. % CML
(Top 3)
Total market
2018 YTD
Δ% 18/17 Top3
Prem. Brands
5,3%
5,0%
5,0%2,9%
3,5%
3,1%
1,1%
1,5%
1,3%
2,3%
1,9%
1,2%
0,4%
0,3%
0,3%
0,5%
0,4%
0,4%
Italy and Europe* Major Economies*
1,6%
2,0%
1,8%
2,3%
2,7%
2,5%
India RussiaEU28+EFTAItaly BrazilChina JapanUS
+11,6%
1,0%
-3,0%
5,4%
-1,7%
15,3%9,5%
-0,1%
1,3%
+14,4%+8,0%
7,5%
+15,9%
3,8%
+1,9%
5,5%
4.282.134574.130
891.742
**
371.112
**
508.176
***
6.153.426
**
1.336.884
**
3.971.628
**
8
Agenda
1 Global Market Overview
2 Europe
2.1 Market Overview
2.2 New Car Registrations by Brand
3 Italy
4 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric)
5 New Car Models Launches in Italy
6 APPENDIX: Focus on ElectricVehicles CO2 Emissions
9
Top 10 European Markets* – March 2018 vs March 2017
Europe – Market Overview
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis
EU New Car Registrations
1.937.9841.836.960
-5,2%
20172018
##
#°
##
Ranking on March 2018 data
New Car Registrations in March 2018
Δ% Mar. 2018 / Mar. 2017
* EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland)
-5,8
4°
213.731 -3,9
10°
35.407
+4,5
7°
51.669
2°
347.433
-3,1
9°
37.206+15,3
8°
42.194
-4,3
6°
58.431
+2,1
5°
128.175
+2,2
3°
231.103
1°
474.069
-15,7
-3,4
The strong decrease in volume it’s partially
due to less working-days in respect to March
2017 (1 or 2 depending on the country)
10
-20
20
10
0
-10
In March 2018, demand for passenger cars in Europe continues to be sustained by the positive performance of
Germany, France and Spain. UK and Italy registered a decrease both in terms of volume and Market Share
Top 10 European Markets* – March 2018YTD
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Europe – Market Overview
Highlights Market Share
# Country
Mar.
2018
∆ Vs
2017
1 Germany 20,5% 0,7%
2 UK 16,8% -2,5%
3 Italy 13,4% -0,3%
4 France 13,0% 0,3%
5 Spain 7,9% 0,7%
6 Belgium 3,9% 0,0%
7 Poland 3,3% 0,3%
8 Netherlands 3,2% 0,4%
9 Austria 2,1% 0,0%
10 Sweden 2,0% -0,1%
4,0
-12,4
-1,5
2,9
10,5
0,5
13,6
2,2
11,1
-2,2
Market Share
∆ % Volume
Mar. 18/17
* EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland)
20%10%
New Car Registrations Mar. 2018 YTD
11
Top 15 – March 2018YTD
Europe – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis
∆M.S.
18/17
0,38 -1,31 -0,20 0,51 -1,04 0,01 -0,18 -0,20 -0,55 -0,01 0,46 0,11 -0,46 0,22 0,13
Vol.'18 464.678 295.877 287.014 269.788 249.756 228.358 213.051 212.347 207.859 197.385 197.048 166.368 160.057 145.008 131.434 4.282.134
M.S.'18 10,9% 6,9% 6,7% 6,3% 5,8% 5,3% 5,0% 5,0% 4,9% 4,6% 4,6% 3,9% 3,7% 3,4% 3,1%
5,2
7,5
-10,4
3,6
11,7
0,4
-9,6
-3,4-2,8
0,9
-9,5
9,4
-2,3
-15,5
4,3
0,6
∆ %
18/17
Tot.
*
* Opel includes Vauxhall New Car Registrations
12
Agenda
1 Global Market Overview
2 Europe
3 Italy
3.1 Market Overview
3.2 Market Highlights
3.3 New Car Registrations by Brand
3.4 New Car Registrations by Group
3.5 New Car Registrations by Fuel Type
4 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric)
5 New Car Models Launches in Italy
6 APPENDIX: Focus on ElectricVehicles CO2 Emissions
13
Italian Market –Variation of New Car Registrations 2018 vs 2017
Italy – Market Overview
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis; *Dataforce ∆'17/'16 ∆'18/'17
In March 2018, new passenger car registrations in Italy decreased by almost
6%, mostly because of the retail channel (-15% vs Mar. 2017, -12%YTD) even if
Self-registration registered a double digit growth (+26%) compared to 2017. It
is fair to note that part of the decrease is due to one working-day less in
respect to March 2017.
The steady decrease of the retail channel (x3 the market decrease) has
reduced its market share by almost 6 p.p.. down to 52%. On the other hand,
business and fleet segments continue to register strong increases (+12,2% and
+12,0% respectively)
March 2018
November December
-3,2%
February
-5,8%
18,2%
-4,6%
3,4%
-1,4%
6,2%
January March
10,1%
July August
6,8%
12,9%
May
8,2%
April
8,1%
June October
7,1%
15,8%
September
5,9%
14
9,0
18,6
-20,3
-9,8
-1,3
-10,5
-16,3
-8,6
-0,4
76,7
Italian Market – March 2018 vs March 2017
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – Market Overview
2015
2014
Δ% March 2018 / March 2017
-5,8%
213.731
226.780
2017
2018
-6,8
North-West
64.017
-7,9
Islands
10.007
-2,2
North-East
82.174
-8,4
Centre
38.092
-10,3
South
19.441
##
aa
##
Region
New Car Registrations in March 2018
Δ% Mar. 2018 / Mar. 2017
Growth of the Top 10
brands by volumes
15
Diesel
55,3%
Petrol
32,8% LPG
5,9%
CNG*
2,1%
EV*
3,8%
Other
11,8%
Italian Market – March 2018YTD vs March 2017YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – Market Highlights
Analysis by “Customer Segment” Analysis by “Fuel Type”
Analysis by “Geographical Area” Analysis by “Car Segment”
Business
113.943
Fleet
142.691
159.863
338.940
Retail
300.325
101.531
2017
-11,4% 12,0% 12,2%∆'18/'17
SouthNorth-East
26.719
54.222
112.535
201.643
107.833
Islands
28.167
57.019
Centre
177.428 183.797
207.929
North-West
574.1311.6169.95873.248
192.937
208.444
87.928
A B DC E TotalF
-18,1% -0,4% 11,3% 9,4% -6,2% 27,6%-3,5% 3,1% -4,2% -4,9% -5,1%
2018
2017
∆'18/'17 ∆'18/'17
2018
2017
-2,5
+34,2
+29,7
-7,5
-3,3
∆% Volume Mar. 2018 / Mar. 2017 (YTD)
* CNG: Compressed Natural Gas (Methane and Ethanol); EV: Electric Vehicle (Hybrid and Electric)
574.130 583.162
2017
2018
-1,5
16
New Car Registrations by Brand – March 2018YTD (1/3)
Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
40.919
17.849
33.876
18.84119.80022.924
33.339 27.678
107.211
47.761
24.82928.171
16.80917.817 14.406
20,9
-3,9
22,6
3,00,46,5
87,0
-1,5
22,0
-10,8-9,9
8,5
-3,9
10,1
-15,5
Volume
∆Volume
18/17 %
∆ M.S.
18/17 %
Market
Share %
-3,09 0,88 -0,17 0,55 -0,53 -0,51 0,93 0,00 1,89 0,26 0,06 0,14 0,61 -0,07 0,47
18,67 8,32 7,13 5,90 5,81 4,91 4,82 4,32 3,99 3,45 3,28 3,11 3,10 2,93 2,51
17
New Car Registrations by Brand – March 2018YTD (2/3)
Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
2.8083.5694.124
5.571
2.618
1.1601.491
13.962 13.701 12.725
6.0766.324
9.115
7.319 6.423
4,43,3
51,8
-13,4
19,7
-14,7-12,1
4,5
26,4
-21,8
15,7
4,8
-8,4
-35,7
-7,3
Volume
∆Volume
18/17 %
∆ M.S.
18/17 %
Market
Share %
-0,15 -1,26 -0,16 0,10 0,18 -0,29 0,24 0,06 -0,12 -0,11 0,11 -0,07 0,16 0,01 0,01
2,43 2,39 2,22 1,59 1,27 1,12 1,10 1,06 0,97 0,72 0,62 0,49 0,46 0,26 0,20
18
New Car Registrations by Brand – March 2018YTD (3/3)
Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
131218397192122
211214
673
743763814
1.062
0,0
-70,0
-20,0
50,0
5,4
-17,4-16,4-6,2
73,0
-71,2
1,2
-17,3-19,8-13,5
10,2
Volume
∆Volume
18/17 %
∆ M.S.
18/17 %
Market
Share %
0,01 -0,02 -0,03 -0,02 0,01 -0,09 -0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
0,18 0,14 0,13 0,13 0,12 0,04 0,04 0,02 0,02 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
19
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
New Car Registrations by Group – Top 15 – March 2018YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Group
0,5
0,6
0,7
1,5
1,6
3,5
3,9
4,2
4,5
4,4
7,1
8,9
14,0
15,8
27,7
Top 5: 73,5%
Top 10: 94,1%
19,7%
-13,4%
-14,7%
15,3%
-5,0%
-6,1%
-1,1%
4,8%
3,5%
-8,2%
4,7%
-3,9%
-0,7%
9,2%
-7,8%
159.148
90.468
80.284
51.156
40.919
26.687
25.891
24.272
22.380
20.014
9.115
8694
4.124
3.569
2.808
FCA
PSA
Volkswagen
Renault
Ford
Hyundai
Toyota
Daimler
BMW
Nissan
Suzuki
JLR
Volvo
Mazda
Honda
Market Share
(%)
DeltaVolume
'18 vs '17
VolumeGroup Brand
20
New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – Petrol and Diesel
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Fuel Type








































DieselPetrol
March 2018 2018YTD
 Ranking variation compared to previous period
1.604
1.635
1.985
2.027
2.178
2.405
2.587
3.954
4.719
8.887
3.776
4.139
4.386
4.942
5.247
5.835
8.011
10.076
12.369
24.600
7.482
7.602
7.707
8.284
8.338
9.113
9.850
10.440
10.897
12.372
2.507
2.881
2.900
2.978
3.017
3.125
3.429
3.695
4.211
4.584
PANDA
500
YPSILON
POLO
FIESTA
FORTWO
208
C3
CORSA
AYGO
PANDA
500
YPSILON
POLO
C3
208
FIESTA
FORTWO
AYGO
CLIO
500X
TIPO
COMPASS
FIESTA
RENEGADE
TIGUAN
QASHQAI
500L
GOLF
DUSTER
500X
TIPO
COMPASS
RENEGADE
TIGUAN
CLIO
PANDA
GOLF
FIESTA
QASHQAI
21
572
595
638
662
673
785
872
878
960
1.123
New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – LPG and CNG
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis




















CNGLPG
March 2018 2018YTD




















Italy – New Car Registrations by Fuel Type
 Ranking variation compared to previous period
1.330
1.773
1.816
1.908
2.143
2.191
2.195
2.356
2.548
2.813
332
369
384
410
837
970
995
1.130
1.550
3.536
102
106
124
169
330
367
384
494
659
1.235
CORSA
PANDA
CLIO
YPSILON
C3
500X
SANDERO
TIPO
MOKKA
RENEGADE
CORSA
PANDA
CLIO
C3
YPSILON
SANDERO
500X
DUSTER
TIPO
KARL
GOLF
PANDA
POLO
UP!
OCTAVIA
PUNTO
A3
LEON
IBIZA
QUBO
GOLF
PANDA
POLO
PUNTO
UP!
OCTAVIA
A3
QUBO
LEON
ASTRA
22
Overview of New Car Registrations by Segment
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
Segments Growth in Market Share* Market Share andVolume**
-2,7%
+1,2%
D
«Executive»
-1,0%
B
«Supermini»
-0,2%
E
«Luxury»
+2,6%
C
«Medium»
+0,0%
F
«Ultra Luxury»
F 1.6160,3%
E 9.9581,7%
D 73.24812,8%
Tot. 574.131100,0%
15,3%
192.93733,6%
36,3%
A 87.928
208.444
C
B
A
«Utility/City»
* Δ% March 2018 YTD / March 2017 YTD; ** Market Share and Volume March 2018 YTD
23
Segment A and Segment B – Top 10 – March 2018YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
A
“Utility/City”
B
“Supermini”
2.5363.0053.0223.0273.9514.1394.4854.759
15.715
35.076
i10CIUP! PICANTOTWINGOKARL AYGOPANDA FORTWO500
7.2127.473
10.88111.296
12.24212.55313.153
13.702
14.38514.794
208POLO SANDEROCAPTURYARIS500LFI ESTA C3 CLIOYPSILON
∆ Vol. %
18/17 YTD
∆ Vol. %
18/17 YTD
SegmentsA (-2,7%) and B (-1,0%) are the
segments which have registered the highest
decrease in 2018
-27,6% -8,7% -14,6% 56,0% -15,7% -8,9% 15,0% -19,2% 0,4% 5,1%
-0,2% 7,4% -35,6% -19,6% -13,3% -6,4% -3,9% 12,2% -15,6% 15,9%
24
Segment C and Segment D –Top 10 – March 2018YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
C
“Medium”
D
“Executive”
5.502
6.5857.027
9.3919.409
10.98911.254
13.455
16.008
16.812
GIULIETTAECOSPORT 3008QASHQAICOMPASSGOLF RENEGADETIPO500X DUSTER
2.3722.4032.6192.6342.6782.757
3.9714.228
5.231
9.197
TIGUAN GLARAV4OCTAVIAA4 RANGE
EVOQUE
GIULIAXISTELVIOKUGA
∆ Vol. %
18/17 YTD
∆ Vol. %
18/17 YTD
26,9% -2,7% 9,9% 3,3% N/A -3,9% 39,2% 28,1% 94,5% -17,3%
-0,4% 13,2% 586,4% -0,3% -14,8% 9,9% 16,2% 61,3% -0,5% -20,9%
C (+2,6%) and D (+1,2%) segments Are the
only segments which are continuing to grow
in respect to 2017
25
Segment E and Segment F –Top 10 – March 2018YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
E
“Luxury”
F
“Ultra Luxury”
5458677580
117127
177
284
329
GTMODEL S7 SERIES F-TYPEA8GHIBLI CLASSE S911 488PANAMERA
∆ Vol. %
18/17 YTD
∆ Vol. %
18/17 YTD
36,3% -3,2% 0,8% -20,1% -28,3% -32,4% -4,8% -30,3% -18,7% -30,2%
36,0% 21,9% 34,1% 0,8% 0,9% -2,4% 47,1% 76,3% -3,3% 237,5%
349357365381
460
857
949
1.195
1.312
1.473
A65 SERIES LEVANTE GLERANGE
SPORT
GLE
COUPÉ
F-PACEE CLASS XC90 GRAND
CHEROKEE
If in March 2018 the E segment remained
almost stable is mostly due to the excellent
result of the BMW Series 5
26
Agenda
1 Global Market Overview
2 Europe
3 Italy
4 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric)
5 New Car Models Launches in Italy
6 APPENDIX: Focus on ElectricVehicles CO2 Emissions
27
New Car Registrations of Hybrid vs Pure ElectricVehicles
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy
22.062
16.436
10.554
7.353
20182015 2016 2017
EV Registrations Trend
Volume, DeltaYoY, EV Market Share Mar. '18YTD
Hybrid and Pure ElectricVehicles Trend
Volume Mar. '18YTD
Delta
YoY
40,3% 43,5% 55,7% 34,2%
M.S. 2,07% 2,5% 2,8% 3,8%
CAGR
4,2%
96,8%
95,8%
2016
96,2%
3,8%
2015
8,1%
3,2%
91,9%
2017 2018
HybridElectric
+25,0%
+47,7%
28
Pure
Electric
Vehicles
Top 5 Hybrid and Pure ElectricVehicles – March 2018YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy
61
8083
124
373
C-ZEROMODEL SFORTWO LEAF ZOE
859
2.3402.545
4.237
6.916
IGNISYARIS RAV4 AURISC-HR
Hybrid
Vehicles
 While both petrol and diesel
cars registered a negative
growth in 2018, hybrids sales
increased steadily in March (up
30% compared to 2017), in line
with the results obtained in the
previous years
 Pure Electric vehicle sales
increased by a whopping 82% in
March '18 vs '17, with anYTD
growth in 2018 of +72%
29
Agenda
1 Global Market Overview
2 Europe
3 Italy
4 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric)
5 New Car Models Launches in Italy
6 APPENDIX: Focus on ElectricVehicles CO2 Emissions
30
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (1/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
A
B
C
D
F
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
Giulietta
A7 SportbackA6
(P)
X5i8 Roadster
2Series Active
& Gran TourerM3
Z4
(P)X4
DS7
Crossback
Duster
(P)
M5
Q3
(P)
RS5
Sportback
(P)
C5
Aircross
(P)
Q8
(P)
A1
(P)
DS3
Crossback
(P)
8Series
(P)
C4
(P)
Berlingo
(P)
E-tron
(P)
S8
(P)
Portofino
500X
31
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (2/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
F
G
H
I
J
K
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Fiesta ST
(P)
Mustang
CourierFocus
(P)
Tourneo
Custom
Jazz NSX
Roadster
(P)
HR-V
CR-V
i30 Fastback Santa
Fe i20H1 Tucson i40
I-PaceF-Pace SVR
(P)
Renegade
Cee’d
(P)
Cherokee Wrangler
Sportage Sportage
SUV
(P)
Niro EV
(P)
QX50
Edge
32
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (3/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
L
M
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Urus
Range Rover
Sport Hybrid
Aventador S
Performante
(P)
Aventador S
Roadster
Huracan Spyder
Performante
(P)
Discovery
SVX
(P)
LS
(P)
RX L
2
CX-3 CX-5
6
MX-5
Ghibli
GranCabrio GranTurismo
Quattroporte
3
(P)
AMG GT4G-Class
C-Class
CLS
Mini
(P)
33
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (4/5)
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
M
N
O
P
R
S
(P)
Juke
ASX
508
(P)
Eclipse
cross
Outlander
Outlander
PHEV
Leaf
Insigna GSi
508 SW
(P)
Cayman
GT4
(P)
911
GT3 RS
(P)
992
(P)
Macan
911 Carrera
T
Megan RS
Leon Cupra
R Ateca Cupra
(P)
Aranda
(P)
Kodiaq
sportline Karoq
(P)
Fabia
34
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (5/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
S
T
V
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Tivoli Actyon Sports
(P)
Smart Electric
Drive
Levorg
JimmySwift SportVitara
Land Cruiser Supra
(P)
XC40 S60
Touareg
(P)
Passat T-Cross
(P)
35
Agenda
1 Global Market Overview
2 Europe
3 Italy
4 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric)
5 New Car Models Launches in Italy
6 APPENDIX: Focus on ElectricVehicles CO2 Emissions
36
The attention of media towards pollution and global warming has put car
manufacturers under pressure over diesel engines
APPENDIX: Focus on ElectricVehicles CO2 Emissions
«Risk of diesel bans force automakers to ditch or
defend CO2-crucial powertrain”
April 4th, 2018 - Automotive News Europe
«End of the Road:Are Diesel Cars on the Way
Out in Europe?”
April 12th, 2018 - Yale Environment
«Germany's Merkel rejects nationwide driving
bans for diesel cars, preferring cities-tailored
solutions”
March 21°, 2018 - Reuters
«Diesel cars: Is it time to switch to a cleaner
fuel?”
July 16°, 2015 - BBC News
«Diesel cars are ‘more polluting’ than thought,
study finds”
Sept 17°, 2017 - Financial Times
In recent years, media and public opinion
have focused their attention on CO2
emission related to powertrains
In the automotive industry, IC
powertrains, and in particular diesel
engines, have been regarded as the
main problem
ElectricVehicles are globally seen as
the solution to the CO2 emission
problem, but they only solve part of the
problem
A study of the European Environment
Agency highlights how electricity and EV
production can reduce the benefits of EV
in terms of CO2 emissions
37
EVs effectiveness in reducing CO2 highly depends on the fuel mix used to
generate electricity and on their manufacture
APPENDIX: Focus on ElectricVehicles CO2 Emissions
EV CO2Total Emissions (Including Car Manufacturing)
Low
carbon
~80
(g/km)
Paraguay
Iceland
Sweden
Brazil
France
Fossil
light
~140
(g/km)
Russia
Spain
Canada
Fossil
heavy
~200
(g/km)
Turkey
Mexico
USA
Coal
based
~300
(g/km)
China
Australia
India
South
Africa
Indonesia
Broad-
mix
~180
(g/km)
Italy
Japan
UK
Germany
Car Production-related
emissions
It has been estimated that EV
production produces an higher amount
of CO2 emissions if compared to diesel
and gasoline ones1, mainly for its
battery components
Car Mobility-related
Emissions
The share of electricity consumption of
EVs will dramatically increase2, requiring
additional electricity generation
Electricity production-related
emission
Analysis of EV CO2 total produced
emissions shows that CO2 emissions
become increasingly important as
electricity moves from low carbon
sources to coal based sources
Electricity
Power
Source
Avg CO2
Total
Emissions
Main
Countries
If not supported by international investments in integrating and reinforcing low-
emission sources, the increase in electricity generation could be covered in part by
high-emission sources thus lowering benefits of road transport emissions reduction
Source: Arthur D. Little’s analysis of EEA reports, Notter (2010), Patterson (2011), Hawkins (2013 corrigendum) researches and of ISPRA, DEFRA, GHG protocol, IEA, EPA,
GREET and LCA literature data
Note: (1) various analyses have estimated a range of [50-90] CO2 g/km for EVs vs an estimation of 40 CO2 g/km on average for diesel and gasoline cars
(2) from 0.03% in 2014 to 4.5% by 2030 and 9.5% by 2050
Arthur D. Little has been at the forefront of innovation since 1886.
We are an acknowledged thought leader in linking strategy, innovation
and transformation in technology-intensive and converging industries.
We navigate our clients through changing business ecosystems to
uncover new growth opportunities.We enable our clients to build
innovation capabilities and transform their organizations.
Our consultants have strong practical industry experience combined
with excellent knowledge of key trends and dynamics.Arthur D. Little is
present in the most important business centers around the world.
We are proud to serve most of the Fortune 1000 companies, in
addition to other leading firms and public sector organizations.
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Copyright © Arthur D. Little 2016.All rights reserved.
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Arthur D.Little - Automotive market report March 2018

  • 1. Global Automotive Report Analysis of New Car Registrations March 2018
  • 2. 2 Global Market Overview * Δ% in Volume March 2018 YTD / March 2017 YTD among markets with more than 250.000 new car registrations Executive Summary India: India registered a solid +10,3% in new car registration in Q1 2018 (vs Q1 2018).Thanks to this result, since march 2018 India has surpassed Germany to become the 4th biggest market Top 3 Markets* +22,7% +12,8% +10,3%India Russia Brazil Brazil: in Q1 2018, Brazil continued the trend registered in 2017, with a +12,8 in the first three months of 2018 (But still far from the level of 2014) Russia:As for 2017, in Q1 2018 Russia registered the highest volume increase among BRIC countries (+22,7% vs Q1 ‘17).
  • 3. 3 Analysis of New Car Registrations in Europe and Italy * EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland); ** Δ% March 2018 / March 2017 Executive Summary  Areas: North-East -2,2%, North-West -6,8%, Islands -7,9%, Centre -8,4% and South -10,3% in volume in March 2018 compared to March 2017  Customer segments: Business +12,2%, Fleet +12,0% and Retail -11,4% in volume in March 2018YTD compared to March 2017YTD  Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, high increases for Jeep +87,0%, Dacia +22,6% and Citroen +22,0% in March 2018YTD compared to March 2017YTD  Premium brands: among the Top 15, Alfa Romeo +20,9%, Mercedes-Benz +3,0% and Audi +0,4% in volume in March 2018YTD compared to March 2017YTD  Top 3 Countries by growth in new registrations: Netherlands +15,3%, Poland +4,5% and France +2,2% in volume in March 2018 compared to March 2017  Top 3 Countries by market share: Germany 20,5% (+0,7), Italy16,8% (-2,5) and France 13,4% (-0,3) in March 2018YTD compared to March 2017YTD  Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, high increases for Skoda +11,7%, Peugeot +9,4% and Hyundai 7,5% in March 2018YTD compared to March 2017YTD  Premium brands: Mercedes-Benz +0,9%, BMW -2,8% and Audi -3,4% in volume in March 2018YTD compared to March 2017YTD Europe* Italy -5,2%** -5,8%**
  • 4. 4 Agenda 1 Global Market Overview 2 Europe 3 Italy 4 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 5 New Car Models Launches in Italy 6 APPENDIX: Focus on ElectricVehicles CO2 Emissions
  • 5. 5 Global Overview –Top 10 Markets and Europe* Source: Arthur D. Little Analysis on IHS Global Insight Data and on market data Global Market Overview Highlights 2018YTD vs. 2017YTD, DeltaVolume vs. Delta Market Share, Market Size Bubble Size – New car registrations in 2018 YTD ∆ % Volume 18 vs. 17 ∆ % Market Share 18/17 -10,0% -5,0% 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% -0,5% * EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) -1,1%
  • 6. 6 Top 5 Brands analysis in major economies Source: Arthur D. Little Analysis on IHS Global Insight and on market data Global Market Overview Italy and Europe* Major Economies* 5 2 1 4 3 M.S. % CML (Top 5) Total market 2018 YTD Δ% 18/17 45% 15% 11% 7% 6% 891.742 *** +10,3% 84% India 22% 11% 9% 8% 7% 371.112 *** +22,7% 57% RussiaEU28+EFTA 11% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4.282.134 +0,6% 36% ** Italy 19% 8% 7% 6% 6% 46% 574.130 -1,5% * Period January-March 2018; ** Opel includes Vauxhall New Car Registrations; *** IHS Global Insight estimated value 19% 15% 13% 9% 8% 64% 508.176 *** +12,8% Brazil 13% 6% 5% 5% 5% 6.153.426 *** +6,9% 34% China 30% 16% 13% 12% 11% 1.336.884 *** +0,3% 82% Japan 13% 13% 12% 9% 9% 3.971.628 *** +1,1% 56% US
  • 7. 7 Top 3 Premium Brands analysis in major economies Source: Arthur D. Little Analysis on IHS Global Insight and on market data Global Market Overview * Period January-March 2018; ** IHS Global Insight estimated value 3 1 2 M.S. % CML (Top 3) Total market 2018 YTD Δ% 18/17 Top3 Prem. Brands 5,3% 5,0% 5,0%2,9% 3,5% 3,1% 1,1% 1,5% 1,3% 2,3% 1,9% 1,2% 0,4% 0,3% 0,3% 0,5% 0,4% 0,4% Italy and Europe* Major Economies* 1,6% 2,0% 1,8% 2,3% 2,7% 2,5% India RussiaEU28+EFTAItaly BrazilChina JapanUS +11,6% 1,0% -3,0% 5,4% -1,7% 15,3%9,5% -0,1% 1,3% +14,4%+8,0% 7,5% +15,9% 3,8% +1,9% 5,5% 4.282.134574.130 891.742 ** 371.112 ** 508.176 *** 6.153.426 ** 1.336.884 ** 3.971.628 **
  • 8. 8 Agenda 1 Global Market Overview 2 Europe 2.1 Market Overview 2.2 New Car Registrations by Brand 3 Italy 4 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 5 New Car Models Launches in Italy 6 APPENDIX: Focus on ElectricVehicles CO2 Emissions
  • 9. 9 Top 10 European Markets* – March 2018 vs March 2017 Europe – Market Overview Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis EU New Car Registrations 1.937.9841.836.960 -5,2% 20172018 ## #° ## Ranking on March 2018 data New Car Registrations in March 2018 Δ% Mar. 2018 / Mar. 2017 * EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) -5,8 4° 213.731 -3,9 10° 35.407 +4,5 7° 51.669 2° 347.433 -3,1 9° 37.206+15,3 8° 42.194 -4,3 6° 58.431 +2,1 5° 128.175 +2,2 3° 231.103 1° 474.069 -15,7 -3,4 The strong decrease in volume it’s partially due to less working-days in respect to March 2017 (1 or 2 depending on the country)
  • 10. 10 -20 20 10 0 -10 In March 2018, demand for passenger cars in Europe continues to be sustained by the positive performance of Germany, France and Spain. UK and Italy registered a decrease both in terms of volume and Market Share Top 10 European Markets* – March 2018YTD Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis Europe – Market Overview Highlights Market Share # Country Mar. 2018 ∆ Vs 2017 1 Germany 20,5% 0,7% 2 UK 16,8% -2,5% 3 Italy 13,4% -0,3% 4 France 13,0% 0,3% 5 Spain 7,9% 0,7% 6 Belgium 3,9% 0,0% 7 Poland 3,3% 0,3% 8 Netherlands 3,2% 0,4% 9 Austria 2,1% 0,0% 10 Sweden 2,0% -0,1% 4,0 -12,4 -1,5 2,9 10,5 0,5 13,6 2,2 11,1 -2,2 Market Share ∆ % Volume Mar. 18/17 * EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) 20%10% New Car Registrations Mar. 2018 YTD
  • 11. 11 Top 15 – March 2018YTD Europe – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis ∆M.S. 18/17 0,38 -1,31 -0,20 0,51 -1,04 0,01 -0,18 -0,20 -0,55 -0,01 0,46 0,11 -0,46 0,22 0,13 Vol.'18 464.678 295.877 287.014 269.788 249.756 228.358 213.051 212.347 207.859 197.385 197.048 166.368 160.057 145.008 131.434 4.282.134 M.S.'18 10,9% 6,9% 6,7% 6,3% 5,8% 5,3% 5,0% 5,0% 4,9% 4,6% 4,6% 3,9% 3,7% 3,4% 3,1% 5,2 7,5 -10,4 3,6 11,7 0,4 -9,6 -3,4-2,8 0,9 -9,5 9,4 -2,3 -15,5 4,3 0,6 ∆ % 18/17 Tot. * * Opel includes Vauxhall New Car Registrations
  • 12. 12 Agenda 1 Global Market Overview 2 Europe 3 Italy 3.1 Market Overview 3.2 Market Highlights 3.3 New Car Registrations by Brand 3.4 New Car Registrations by Group 3.5 New Car Registrations by Fuel Type 4 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 5 New Car Models Launches in Italy 6 APPENDIX: Focus on ElectricVehicles CO2 Emissions
  • 13. 13 Italian Market –Variation of New Car Registrations 2018 vs 2017 Italy – Market Overview Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis; *Dataforce ∆'17/'16 ∆'18/'17 In March 2018, new passenger car registrations in Italy decreased by almost 6%, mostly because of the retail channel (-15% vs Mar. 2017, -12%YTD) even if Self-registration registered a double digit growth (+26%) compared to 2017. It is fair to note that part of the decrease is due to one working-day less in respect to March 2017. The steady decrease of the retail channel (x3 the market decrease) has reduced its market share by almost 6 p.p.. down to 52%. On the other hand, business and fleet segments continue to register strong increases (+12,2% and +12,0% respectively) March 2018 November December -3,2% February -5,8% 18,2% -4,6% 3,4% -1,4% 6,2% January March 10,1% July August 6,8% 12,9% May 8,2% April 8,1% June October 7,1% 15,8% September 5,9%
  • 14. 14 9,0 18,6 -20,3 -9,8 -1,3 -10,5 -16,3 -8,6 -0,4 76,7 Italian Market – March 2018 vs March 2017 Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – Market Overview 2015 2014 Δ% March 2018 / March 2017 -5,8% 213.731 226.780 2017 2018 -6,8 North-West 64.017 -7,9 Islands 10.007 -2,2 North-East 82.174 -8,4 Centre 38.092 -10,3 South 19.441 ## aa ## Region New Car Registrations in March 2018 Δ% Mar. 2018 / Mar. 2017 Growth of the Top 10 brands by volumes
  • 15. 15 Diesel 55,3% Petrol 32,8% LPG 5,9% CNG* 2,1% EV* 3,8% Other 11,8% Italian Market – March 2018YTD vs March 2017YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – Market Highlights Analysis by “Customer Segment” Analysis by “Fuel Type” Analysis by “Geographical Area” Analysis by “Car Segment” Business 113.943 Fleet 142.691 159.863 338.940 Retail 300.325 101.531 2017 -11,4% 12,0% 12,2%∆'18/'17 SouthNorth-East 26.719 54.222 112.535 201.643 107.833 Islands 28.167 57.019 Centre 177.428 183.797 207.929 North-West 574.1311.6169.95873.248 192.937 208.444 87.928 A B DC E TotalF -18,1% -0,4% 11,3% 9,4% -6,2% 27,6%-3,5% 3,1% -4,2% -4,9% -5,1% 2018 2017 ∆'18/'17 ∆'18/'17 2018 2017 -2,5 +34,2 +29,7 -7,5 -3,3 ∆% Volume Mar. 2018 / Mar. 2017 (YTD) * CNG: Compressed Natural Gas (Methane and Ethanol); EV: Electric Vehicle (Hybrid and Electric) 574.130 583.162 2017 2018 -1,5
  • 16. 16 New Car Registrations by Brand – March 2018YTD (1/3) Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis 40.919 17.849 33.876 18.84119.80022.924 33.339 27.678 107.211 47.761 24.82928.171 16.80917.817 14.406 20,9 -3,9 22,6 3,00,46,5 87,0 -1,5 22,0 -10,8-9,9 8,5 -3,9 10,1 -15,5 Volume ∆Volume 18/17 % ∆ M.S. 18/17 % Market Share % -3,09 0,88 -0,17 0,55 -0,53 -0,51 0,93 0,00 1,89 0,26 0,06 0,14 0,61 -0,07 0,47 18,67 8,32 7,13 5,90 5,81 4,91 4,82 4,32 3,99 3,45 3,28 3,11 3,10 2,93 2,51
  • 17. 17 New Car Registrations by Brand – March 2018YTD (2/3) Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis 2.8083.5694.124 5.571 2.618 1.1601.491 13.962 13.701 12.725 6.0766.324 9.115 7.319 6.423 4,43,3 51,8 -13,4 19,7 -14,7-12,1 4,5 26,4 -21,8 15,7 4,8 -8,4 -35,7 -7,3 Volume ∆Volume 18/17 % ∆ M.S. 18/17 % Market Share % -0,15 -1,26 -0,16 0,10 0,18 -0,29 0,24 0,06 -0,12 -0,11 0,11 -0,07 0,16 0,01 0,01 2,43 2,39 2,22 1,59 1,27 1,12 1,10 1,06 0,97 0,72 0,62 0,49 0,46 0,26 0,20
  • 18. 18 New Car Registrations by Brand – March 2018YTD (3/3) Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis 131218397192122 211214 673 743763814 1.062 0,0 -70,0 -20,0 50,0 5,4 -17,4-16,4-6,2 73,0 -71,2 1,2 -17,3-19,8-13,5 10,2 Volume ∆Volume 18/17 % ∆ M.S. 18/17 % Market Share % 0,01 -0,02 -0,03 -0,02 0,01 -0,09 -0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,18 0,14 0,13 0,13 0,12 0,04 0,04 0,02 0,02 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
  • 19. 19 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 New Car Registrations by Group – Top 15 – March 2018YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Group 0,5 0,6 0,7 1,5 1,6 3,5 3,9 4,2 4,5 4,4 7,1 8,9 14,0 15,8 27,7 Top 5: 73,5% Top 10: 94,1% 19,7% -13,4% -14,7% 15,3% -5,0% -6,1% -1,1% 4,8% 3,5% -8,2% 4,7% -3,9% -0,7% 9,2% -7,8% 159.148 90.468 80.284 51.156 40.919 26.687 25.891 24.272 22.380 20.014 9.115 8694 4.124 3.569 2.808 FCA PSA Volkswagen Renault Ford Hyundai Toyota Daimler BMW Nissan Suzuki JLR Volvo Mazda Honda Market Share (%) DeltaVolume '18 vs '17 VolumeGroup Brand
  • 20. 20 New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – Petrol and Diesel Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Fuel Type                                         DieselPetrol March 2018 2018YTD  Ranking variation compared to previous period 1.604 1.635 1.985 2.027 2.178 2.405 2.587 3.954 4.719 8.887 3.776 4.139 4.386 4.942 5.247 5.835 8.011 10.076 12.369 24.600 7.482 7.602 7.707 8.284 8.338 9.113 9.850 10.440 10.897 12.372 2.507 2.881 2.900 2.978 3.017 3.125 3.429 3.695 4.211 4.584 PANDA 500 YPSILON POLO FIESTA FORTWO 208 C3 CORSA AYGO PANDA 500 YPSILON POLO C3 208 FIESTA FORTWO AYGO CLIO 500X TIPO COMPASS FIESTA RENEGADE TIGUAN QASHQAI 500L GOLF DUSTER 500X TIPO COMPASS RENEGADE TIGUAN CLIO PANDA GOLF FIESTA QASHQAI
  • 21. 21 572 595 638 662 673 785 872 878 960 1.123 New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – LPG and CNG Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis                     CNGLPG March 2018 2018YTD                     Italy – New Car Registrations by Fuel Type  Ranking variation compared to previous period 1.330 1.773 1.816 1.908 2.143 2.191 2.195 2.356 2.548 2.813 332 369 384 410 837 970 995 1.130 1.550 3.536 102 106 124 169 330 367 384 494 659 1.235 CORSA PANDA CLIO YPSILON C3 500X SANDERO TIPO MOKKA RENEGADE CORSA PANDA CLIO C3 YPSILON SANDERO 500X DUSTER TIPO KARL GOLF PANDA POLO UP! OCTAVIA PUNTO A3 LEON IBIZA QUBO GOLF PANDA POLO PUNTO UP! OCTAVIA A3 QUBO LEON ASTRA
  • 22. 22 Overview of New Car Registrations by Segment Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment Segments Growth in Market Share* Market Share andVolume** -2,7% +1,2% D «Executive» -1,0% B «Supermini» -0,2% E «Luxury» +2,6% C «Medium» +0,0% F «Ultra Luxury» F 1.6160,3% E 9.9581,7% D 73.24812,8% Tot. 574.131100,0% 15,3% 192.93733,6% 36,3% A 87.928 208.444 C B A «Utility/City» * Δ% March 2018 YTD / March 2017 YTD; ** Market Share and Volume March 2018 YTD
  • 23. 23 Segment A and Segment B – Top 10 – March 2018YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment A “Utility/City” B “Supermini” 2.5363.0053.0223.0273.9514.1394.4854.759 15.715 35.076 i10CIUP! PICANTOTWINGOKARL AYGOPANDA FORTWO500 7.2127.473 10.88111.296 12.24212.55313.153 13.702 14.38514.794 208POLO SANDEROCAPTURYARIS500LFI ESTA C3 CLIOYPSILON ∆ Vol. % 18/17 YTD ∆ Vol. % 18/17 YTD SegmentsA (-2,7%) and B (-1,0%) are the segments which have registered the highest decrease in 2018 -27,6% -8,7% -14,6% 56,0% -15,7% -8,9% 15,0% -19,2% 0,4% 5,1% -0,2% 7,4% -35,6% -19,6% -13,3% -6,4% -3,9% 12,2% -15,6% 15,9%
  • 24. 24 Segment C and Segment D –Top 10 – March 2018YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment C “Medium” D “Executive” 5.502 6.5857.027 9.3919.409 10.98911.254 13.455 16.008 16.812 GIULIETTAECOSPORT 3008QASHQAICOMPASSGOLF RENEGADETIPO500X DUSTER 2.3722.4032.6192.6342.6782.757 3.9714.228 5.231 9.197 TIGUAN GLARAV4OCTAVIAA4 RANGE EVOQUE GIULIAXISTELVIOKUGA ∆ Vol. % 18/17 YTD ∆ Vol. % 18/17 YTD 26,9% -2,7% 9,9% 3,3% N/A -3,9% 39,2% 28,1% 94,5% -17,3% -0,4% 13,2% 586,4% -0,3% -14,8% 9,9% 16,2% 61,3% -0,5% -20,9% C (+2,6%) and D (+1,2%) segments Are the only segments which are continuing to grow in respect to 2017
  • 25. 25 Segment E and Segment F –Top 10 – March 2018YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment E “Luxury” F “Ultra Luxury” 5458677580 117127 177 284 329 GTMODEL S7 SERIES F-TYPEA8GHIBLI CLASSE S911 488PANAMERA ∆ Vol. % 18/17 YTD ∆ Vol. % 18/17 YTD 36,3% -3,2% 0,8% -20,1% -28,3% -32,4% -4,8% -30,3% -18,7% -30,2% 36,0% 21,9% 34,1% 0,8% 0,9% -2,4% 47,1% 76,3% -3,3% 237,5% 349357365381 460 857 949 1.195 1.312 1.473 A65 SERIES LEVANTE GLERANGE SPORT GLE COUPÉ F-PACEE CLASS XC90 GRAND CHEROKEE If in March 2018 the E segment remained almost stable is mostly due to the excellent result of the BMW Series 5
  • 26. 26 Agenda 1 Global Market Overview 2 Europe 3 Italy 4 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 5 New Car Models Launches in Italy 6 APPENDIX: Focus on ElectricVehicles CO2 Emissions
  • 27. 27 New Car Registrations of Hybrid vs Pure ElectricVehicles Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy 22.062 16.436 10.554 7.353 20182015 2016 2017 EV Registrations Trend Volume, DeltaYoY, EV Market Share Mar. '18YTD Hybrid and Pure ElectricVehicles Trend Volume Mar. '18YTD Delta YoY 40,3% 43,5% 55,7% 34,2% M.S. 2,07% 2,5% 2,8% 3,8% CAGR 4,2% 96,8% 95,8% 2016 96,2% 3,8% 2015 8,1% 3,2% 91,9% 2017 2018 HybridElectric +25,0% +47,7%
  • 28. 28 Pure Electric Vehicles Top 5 Hybrid and Pure ElectricVehicles – March 2018YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy 61 8083 124 373 C-ZEROMODEL SFORTWO LEAF ZOE 859 2.3402.545 4.237 6.916 IGNISYARIS RAV4 AURISC-HR Hybrid Vehicles  While both petrol and diesel cars registered a negative growth in 2018, hybrids sales increased steadily in March (up 30% compared to 2017), in line with the results obtained in the previous years  Pure Electric vehicle sales increased by a whopping 82% in March '18 vs '17, with anYTD growth in 2018 of +72%
  • 29. 29 Agenda 1 Global Market Overview 2 Europe 3 Italy 4 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 5 New Car Models Launches in Italy 6 APPENDIX: Focus on ElectricVehicles CO2 Emissions
  • 30. 30 New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (1/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec A B C D F Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated Giulietta A7 SportbackA6 (P) X5i8 Roadster 2Series Active & Gran TourerM3 Z4 (P)X4 DS7 Crossback Duster (P) M5 Q3 (P) RS5 Sportback (P) C5 Aircross (P) Q8 (P) A1 (P) DS3 Crossback (P) 8Series (P) C4 (P) Berlingo (P) E-tron (P) S8 (P) Portofino 500X
  • 31. 31 New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (2/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec F G H I J K Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated (P) Fiesta ST (P) Mustang CourierFocus (P) Tourneo Custom Jazz NSX Roadster (P) HR-V CR-V i30 Fastback Santa Fe i20H1 Tucson i40 I-PaceF-Pace SVR (P) Renegade Cee’d (P) Cherokee Wrangler Sportage Sportage SUV (P) Niro EV (P) QX50 Edge
  • 32. 32 New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (3/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec L M Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated (P) Urus Range Rover Sport Hybrid Aventador S Performante (P) Aventador S Roadster Huracan Spyder Performante (P) Discovery SVX (P) LS (P) RX L 2 CX-3 CX-5 6 MX-5 Ghibli GranCabrio GranTurismo Quattroporte 3 (P) AMG GT4G-Class C-Class CLS Mini (P)
  • 33. 33 Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (4/5) New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec M N O P R S (P) Juke ASX 508 (P) Eclipse cross Outlander Outlander PHEV Leaf Insigna GSi 508 SW (P) Cayman GT4 (P) 911 GT3 RS (P) 992 (P) Macan 911 Carrera T Megan RS Leon Cupra R Ateca Cupra (P) Aranda (P) Kodiaq sportline Karoq (P) Fabia
  • 34. 34 New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (5/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S T V Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated (P) Tivoli Actyon Sports (P) Smart Electric Drive Levorg JimmySwift SportVitara Land Cruiser Supra (P) XC40 S60 Touareg (P) Passat T-Cross (P)
  • 35. 35 Agenda 1 Global Market Overview 2 Europe 3 Italy 4 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 5 New Car Models Launches in Italy 6 APPENDIX: Focus on ElectricVehicles CO2 Emissions
  • 36. 36 The attention of media towards pollution and global warming has put car manufacturers under pressure over diesel engines APPENDIX: Focus on ElectricVehicles CO2 Emissions «Risk of diesel bans force automakers to ditch or defend CO2-crucial powertrain” April 4th, 2018 - Automotive News Europe «End of the Road:Are Diesel Cars on the Way Out in Europe?” April 12th, 2018 - Yale Environment «Germany's Merkel rejects nationwide driving bans for diesel cars, preferring cities-tailored solutions” March 21°, 2018 - Reuters «Diesel cars: Is it time to switch to a cleaner fuel?” July 16°, 2015 - BBC News «Diesel cars are ‘more polluting’ than thought, study finds” Sept 17°, 2017 - Financial Times In recent years, media and public opinion have focused their attention on CO2 emission related to powertrains In the automotive industry, IC powertrains, and in particular diesel engines, have been regarded as the main problem ElectricVehicles are globally seen as the solution to the CO2 emission problem, but they only solve part of the problem A study of the European Environment Agency highlights how electricity and EV production can reduce the benefits of EV in terms of CO2 emissions
  • 37. 37 EVs effectiveness in reducing CO2 highly depends on the fuel mix used to generate electricity and on their manufacture APPENDIX: Focus on ElectricVehicles CO2 Emissions EV CO2Total Emissions (Including Car Manufacturing) Low carbon ~80 (g/km) Paraguay Iceland Sweden Brazil France Fossil light ~140 (g/km) Russia Spain Canada Fossil heavy ~200 (g/km) Turkey Mexico USA Coal based ~300 (g/km) China Australia India South Africa Indonesia Broad- mix ~180 (g/km) Italy Japan UK Germany Car Production-related emissions It has been estimated that EV production produces an higher amount of CO2 emissions if compared to diesel and gasoline ones1, mainly for its battery components Car Mobility-related Emissions The share of electricity consumption of EVs will dramatically increase2, requiring additional electricity generation Electricity production-related emission Analysis of EV CO2 total produced emissions shows that CO2 emissions become increasingly important as electricity moves from low carbon sources to coal based sources Electricity Power Source Avg CO2 Total Emissions Main Countries If not supported by international investments in integrating and reinforcing low- emission sources, the increase in electricity generation could be covered in part by high-emission sources thus lowering benefits of road transport emissions reduction Source: Arthur D. Little’s analysis of EEA reports, Notter (2010), Patterson (2011), Hawkins (2013 corrigendum) researches and of ISPRA, DEFRA, GHG protocol, IEA, EPA, GREET and LCA literature data Note: (1) various analyses have estimated a range of [50-90] CO2 g/km for EVs vs an estimation of 40 CO2 g/km on average for diesel and gasoline cars (2) from 0.03% in 2014 to 4.5% by 2030 and 9.5% by 2050
  • 38. Arthur D. Little has been at the forefront of innovation since 1886. We are an acknowledged thought leader in linking strategy, innovation and transformation in technology-intensive and converging industries. We navigate our clients through changing business ecosystems to uncover new growth opportunities.We enable our clients to build innovation capabilities and transform their organizations. Our consultants have strong practical industry experience combined with excellent knowledge of key trends and dynamics.Arthur D. Little is present in the most important business centers around the world. We are proud to serve most of the Fortune 1000 companies, in addition to other leading firms and public sector organizations. For further information please visit www.adlittle.com. Copyright © Arthur D. Little 2016.All rights reserved. Contacts: Fabrizio Arena Partner Tel.: +39 06 68 882 344 Fax: +39 335 123 2387 Mail: arena.fabrizio@adlittle.com Arthur D. Little S.p.A. Via Sardegna 40 00187 Rome – Italy Tel.: +39 06 68 882 1 Fax: +39 06 68 882 322 Corso Monforte 54 20122 Milan – Italy Tel.: +39 02 67 376 1 Fax: +39 02 67 376 251