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Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation

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CIFOR-ICRAF
CIFOR-ICRAF

This presentation by Gabrielle Kissinger and Martin Herold was given on 26 November 2012 at a UNFCCC COP18 side-event in Doha, Qatar. They shared findings from a recently published global assessment on the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation, as well as country experiences of dealing with them in a REDD+ context. To support SBSTA considerations on REDD+, and to support ongoing national-level REDD+ planning and implementation, the assessment explores the importance of drivers, the role of drivers in REDD+ policy development and interventions, and in developing forest reference emission levels.

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Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Authors: Gabrielle Kissinger, Lexeme Consulting Martin Herold, Wageningen University Veronique De Sy, Wageningen University Made
possible
by
financial
assistance
from: 
United
Kingdom
Departments
for
Energy
and
Climate
Change
(DECC) and
International
Development
(DFID) and
The
Government
of
Norway’s
International
Climate
and
Forest Initiative Presentation by Gabrielle Kissinger and Martin Herold COP 18 side-event, 26 November 2012, Doha, Qatar
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Appendix
II
of
the
December
2010
Cancún
Decision
1/CP.16 requests
the
SBSTA
to: (a)
Identify
land
use,
land‐use
change
and
forestry
activities
in developing
countries,
in
particular
those
that
are
linked
to
the drivers
of
deforestation
and
forest
degradation,
identify
the associated
methodological
issues
to
estimate
emissions
and removals
resulting
from
these
activities,
and
assess
the potential
contribution
of
these
activities
to
the
mitigation
of climate
change,
and
report
on
the
findings
and
outcomes
of this
work
to
the
Conference
of
the
Parties
(COP)
at
its eighteenth
session
on
the
outcomes
of
the
work
referred
to
in this
paragraph;
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Overview
of
presentation: 1. Assessment
of
current
and
future
drivers 2. The
role
of
drivers
in
national
forest monitoring
and
in
developing
forest reference
(emission)
levels 3. Drivers
in
REDD+
policy
development
and implementation 4. Interventions
at
relevant
scales
and
key actors 5. Conclusions
and
recommendations
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Definitions: • Proximate/direct
causes:
human
activities
or
immediate actions
that
directly
impact
forest
cover
and
loss
of
carbon  Deforestation:
commercial
agriculture,
subsistence
agriculture, mining,
infrastructure
and
urban
expansion  Forest
degradation:
logging,
fires,
livestock
grazing
in
forest, fuelwood
collection
and
charcoal
production • Underlying/indirect
causes:
complex
interactions
of fundamental
social,
economic,
political,
cultural
and technological
processes
‐
often
distant
from
their
area
of impact  Important
to
address
them
separately
and
examine
them
at various
scales
for
specific
analysis
and
intervention
strategies
Assessment
of
current
drivers
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Assessment
of
current
drivers:  Country REDD+ readiness activities – first inventory of what countries identify as relevant and important drivers  Methods: R-PIN, R-PP, a study on proximate drivers of deforestation of 25 tropical countries (Mathews et al., 2010), CIFOR country profiles and the UNFCCC national communications  nominal, ordinal or ratio-scale data for 46 non-Annex I countries (78% of total forest area in 2010)  Hosonuma et al. 2012, ERL: http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/044009
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Direct/proximate
drivers:
Deforestation
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Direct/proximate
drivers:
Deforestation • Agriculture
estimated
to
drive
80%
of deforestation
worldwide • Commercial
agriculture:

biggest
driver in
Latin
America
(2/3
of
total deforested
area) • Commercial
agriculture
in
Africa
and (sub)tropical
Asia
(1/3
of
total deforested
area)
and
of
similar importance
to
subsistence
agriculture
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Direct/proximate
drivers:
Degradation • Latin
America
and
(sub)tropical Asia:
Commercial
timber extraction
and
logging
>
70%
of total
degradation • Africa:
Fuel
wood
collection, charcoal
production
Indirect
or
underlying
drivers Future • Economic
growth – Based
on
export
of
primary
commodities • Population
growth
/
Urban
growth • Demand
for
timber
and
agricultural
products • Countries
(31
national
REDD+
R‐PPs): – Weak
forest
sector
governance
and
institutions, conflicting
policies
beyond
forest
sector
and
illegal activity
(93%) – Population
growth
(51%) – Poverty
and
insecure
tenure
(both
48%)
The
role
of
drivers
in
national
forest monitoring
and
in
developing
forest
reference (emission)
levels
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Identifying
forest
change
drivers:
important
data stream
for
REDD+
design
and
implementation: •Define
REDD+
interventions
(priorities) •Engagement
with
non‐forest
sectors •Track
them
to
assess
the
impact
of
mitigation •Define
priorities
for
monitoring
and
MRV •National
circumstances
for
adjusting
R(E)Ls •Requires
resources
and
efforts
additional
to estimation
and
reporting
of
GHG
emissions
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 National
capacities
for
monitoring
drivers:
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Analysing
and
assessing
proximate
drivers • Linking
forest
area
changes
to
specific
activities and
follow‐up
land
use
(remote
sensing
analysis) • Spatial
context
and
location,
and
other
features (e.g.
roads,
settlements)
can
help
in interpretation • Local
and
regional
knowledge
(experts
and communities),
ground
observations • GHG
emissions
from
drivers:
commonly
not available
on
national
level • Some
activities
or
land
uses
also
result
in additional
GHG
emissions;
i.e.,
agriculture
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Linking
area
change
monitoring
with
proximate drivers:
Forest
carbon
stock
impact
of
different
activities Human
induced
disturbance causing
loss
of
forest:
fire,
clearing,
selective
extraction,
… th Primary
forest w ging ra l
 regro u s
log Natu uo Co ntin Carbon
stock o n iv ati lt g
 cu n h ifti S Deforestation Time
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Analysing
and
assessing
underlying
drivers • Link
between
deforestation
patterns
and underlying
causes
important
for
developing RL/RELs
–
but
often
difficult • Statistical
analysis
and
modelling
using
economic and
demographic
indicators,
analysis
of
policy and
governance
issues
(global,
national) • Required
national
and
local
data
often
not
easily available:
scattered
among
different
sources, sectors
and
ministries
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Role
of
drivers
for
developing
forest
reference
(emission)
levels: • REL
first
key
“number”
to
be
provided
by
REDD+
countries • Historical
data
and
understanding
forest
change
patterns and
underlying
causes
are
important – to
take
national
circumstances
into
account, – to
construct
scenarios
that
deviate
from
historical
trends. • The
availability
of
data
on
drivers
is
uncertain
in
many REDD+
countries – Stepwise
approach
as
starting
point
to
match
available data
and
their
quality
with
the
choice
of
reference
level methods,
its
uncertainties
and
country
circumstances
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Overview
of
a
potential
step‐wise
framework
for
setting
RELs • Availability

&
quality
of
data
should
determine
the
methods
to
develop reference
levels • National
capacities
and
the
quality
of
reference
levels
can
be
improved over
time Source:
CIFOR
policy
brief,
2012
Stepwise
REDD+
national
monitoring • CIFOR/GOFC‐GOLD
side
event
on
stepwise
Progress
in National
Forest
Monitoring,
MRV,
Reference
Levels
and Assessing
Drivers, – Wednesday,
28
November,
15.00‐16.30hrs,
Qatar
National Convention
Center
(QNCC),
Side
Event
Room
4 • Updated
version
of
the
GOFC‐GOLD
Sourcebook: – http://www.gofcgold.wur.nl/redd/index.php • CIFOR/GOFC‐GOLD
report
on
capacity
development
in national
forest
monitoring – http://www.cifor.org/online‐library/browse/view‐ publication/publication/3944.html
Considerations
for
future
drivers
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Indirect/Underlying
drivers: • Economic
growth
based
on
the
export
of
primary
commodities
+ increasing
demand
for
timber
and
agricultural
products
in
a
globalizing economy
are
critical. • 93%
of
countries:
identify
weak
forest
sector
governance
and institutions,
including
conflicting
policies
beyond
the
forest
sector
(lack of
cross‐sectoral
coordination),
and
illegal
activity
(weak enforcement).
See
Appendix
A. • Population
growth
next
most
common
reported
underlying
driver (51%),
followed
by
poverty
(48%)
and
insecure
tenure
(48%). • 41%
of
countries
mention
international
and
market
forces
(commodity markets,
prices,
and
foreign
direct
investment). • Some
countries
that
reference
agricultural
export
commodities
as direct
drivers
don’t
make
linkage
to
international
and
market
forces
as underlying
drivers.
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Future
Trends:
Global
population: • Global
increase,
predominantly
in
urban areas,
to
8.2
billion
in
2030 • Largest
increases
in
population
in
Africa
(+235 million)
and
Asia
&
Pacific
(+255
million) • Stabilized
population
level
of
8
to
10
billion after
2050
due
to
rising
living
standards, urbanization,
and
declining
birth
rates
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Future
Trends:
Economic
growth: • Brazil,
the
Russian
Federation,
India
and
China are
anticipated
to
continue
growing
over
the
next ten
years
at
8%
per
annum
(OECD/FAO,
2012) • Developing
world
will
account
for
more
than
half of
global
economic
growth
throughout
2012/14 (World
Bank,
2012) • Mining:
Developing
countries
and
emerging markets
will
see
greatest
supply
and
demand expansion
(PriceWaterhouseCoopers,
2012).
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Future
Trends:

Agricultural
commodities: • Overall,
70%
increase
in
demand
for
food
products
by
2050
(FAO, 2009) • Oil
seeds:

23%
production
increase
2011
–
2020,
2/3
of
which
to
occur in
non‐Annex
1
countries
(OECD/FAO,
2011) • Oil
palm:
45%
rise
in
palm
oil
output,
mainly
by
Indonesia
and Malaysia(OECD/FAO
2011) • Meat:
85%
increase
in
volume
of
meat
produced
by
2050
(FAO,
2009), 78%
of
the
additional
output
to
occur
in
developing
countries
(Latin America‐Brazil),
growth
in
demand:
large
economies
in
Asia,
Latin America
and
oil
exporting
countries
(OECD/FAO
2011) • Biofuels:

By
2020,
21%
of
the
increase
in
global
coarse
grains production
above
current
levels,
29%
of
the
global
vegetable
oil production’s
increase,
and
68%
of
global
sugar
cane
production’s increase
will
go
to
biofuels
(OECD/FAO,
2011).

EU,
US,
Brazil,
China, India
and
others
have
biofuel
targets.
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Future
Trends:
Wood
products
(pulp,
paper,
sawlogs): • Annual
plantation
production
capacity:
1.8
billion
m3
per year
by
2020 • >
80%
production
potential
located
in
tropics
and
southern hemisphere • Brazil,
China
and
Russia
to
dominate,
India
and
Vietnam increase
market
share
of
the
international
trade
of
wood products
by
2020
(FAO
Advisory
Committee
on
Paper
and Wood
Products,
2007).
Note:
domestic
consumption, domestic
fuel
wood
use
and
illegal
logging
not
represented in
trade
statistics. • EU
and
US
Import
controls
stemming
illegal
logging, however
int’l
and
domestic
trade
willing
to
source
illegal wood
will
increase.
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Future
Trends:
Fuel
Wood/Charcoal: • People
reliant
on
traditional
biomass
use globally
to
decrease
by
175
million
between 2008
and
2030 • Demand
for
charcoal
likely
to
increase
due
to increased
urbanization • 34%
increase
in
fuel
wood
consumption
from 2000‐2020
in
Sub‐Saharan
Africa
(FAO,
2009)
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Drivers:
REDD+
policy
development
and implementation:
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 National‐level
interventions: • Incentives,
disincentives
and
enabling
measures • Policy‐
or
incentive‐based
interventions • Need
to
focus
interventions
on
direct
and underlying
drivers
simultaneously
for
success. • Need
a
mix
of
incentive
investments, disincentives
and
enabling
measures,
under
a comprehensive
REDD+
strategy,
aimed
at
the most
important
proximate
and
underlying
drivers for
greatest
success.
Measures
pursued
singly, e.g.
agricultural
intensification,
will
be
less effective
or
counter‐productive.
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 
Summary
of
national
REDD+
readiness
plan
interventions
and
strategies
to
address
drivers
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Land
tenure
security: • 48%
list
insecure
tenure
as
a
key
underlying factor
of
unsustainable
forest
use
(refer
to Appendix
A). • R‐PP’s:
tenure
directly
relates
to
legal
and
illegal forest
clearing
activity,
and
government
roles
in management
and
enforcement
of
policies. • Land
tenure
security
=
less
deforestation,
and secure
tenure
more
important
than
the
form
of tenure
for
designing
policies
to
influence
forest outcomes
(Robinson
et
al.,
2011)
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Adequate
information
systems: Countries
need: •Integration
of
information
beyond
the
forest
sector:
track driver
activity,
social
and
environmental
safeguards,
and evaluation
of
trade‐offs
and
livelihood
implications •Simultaneous
climate
change
mitigation
and
adaptation impacts
and
measures
(food
security) •Established
uniform
criteria
on
land‐use
classifications
+



 capacities
of
sectoral
and
regional
information
systems •Acknowledge
IPCC
LULUCF
guidance;
some
countries
want further
UNFCCC
guidance
on
reporting
frameworks
for
REDD+ MRV
system
design
and
inventory
reporting
formats
to support
assessing
drivers
of
land
use
change
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 REDD+
compensation,
opportunity
costs
and good
governance: • Distinguish
between
legal
and
illegal
activity
and
status
of
land
use rights. • How
to
compete?:
NPV
of
oil
palm
plantations:
US
$6000
–
US $9000/ha,
but
carbon
credits
incentives
yield
US
$614
–
US
$994 per
hectare
(Pacheco
et
al.,
2012;
Fisher
et
al.,
2011). Solutions: • Strengthen
laws
and
regulations,
fiscal
mechanisms
(e.g.
taxes
and subsidies),
and
public
investments
(e.g.
tenure
reform,
benefit‐ sharing,
rehabilitating
degraded
land)
rather
than
opportunity
costs to
affect
rates
and
drivers
of
deforestation
(Gregersen
et
al.,
2010). • Should
be
national
in
scale:
avoids
leakage
between
regional
or project
scales
and
overpaying
for
high
opportunity
cost
emission reductions.
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Intensifying
agricultural
production
without causing
deforestation: • Land‐sparing
hypothesis
is
flawed • Brazil,
Ghana
and
Indonesia:
three
key
levers
across regions
and
commodities: – provision
of
up‐front
public
finance,
followed
by
low‐ interest
loans, – establishment
and
enforcement
of
the
correct
enabling policy
and
regulatory
frameworks, – the
need
for
significant
public
investment
in
increasing
the capacity
of
agricultural
producers,
particularly smallholders
(Prince’s
Charities’
International Sustainability
Unit,
2012)
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Intensifying
agricultural
production
≠ deforestation
(cont.): Brazil: •Cereal,
pulse
and
oilseed
production

185%
(1990
–
2012),
but deforestation

almost
75%
since
2004. •Agricultural
intensification
+
policies
promoting
use
of
degraded lands—dependent
on
there
being
enough
degraded
land
(Macedo
et
al., 2012) •Combination
of
market
pressure,
forest
code
enforcement,
technical guidance
and
land‐use
planning,
financing
and
incentives,
increasing
areas under
multiple
uses
(crop‐livestock‐forest
integration,
silvopastoral
and agroforestry
systems). Indonesia: •Palm
oil
cultivation
from
9.7
million
ha
to
18
million
ha
by
2020
without deforestation
possible
via
a
properly
planned
and
spatially
explicit development
strategy
(Koh
and
Ghazoul,
2010).
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Cross‐sectoral
commitments:
Acre
State,
Brazil Acre
State’s
REDD+
programme: •Encompasses
all
land‐use
types,
including
the
full
range of
agricultural
uses
that
affect
Acre’s
forests, •Mix
of
incentives
and
payments,
bundled
under
an umbrella
REDD+
programme
linked
directly
to
Acre Sustainable
Development
Plan,
bringing
small‐,
medium‐ and
large‐scale
producers, •Emission
reduction
targets
are
nested
within
federal targets,
based
on
multi‐sector
land‐use
plans
and commitments, •Governance
of
the
programme,
including
enforcement abilities,
appears
strong.
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Challenges: • Leakage/displacement—Tracking
across
borders
and
across regions
complex!
Could
combine
information
from
national systems
and
international
sources,
enabling
countries
to design
synergistic
REDD+
strategies.
Also
increase
REDD+ participation. • Indirect
land‐use
change
(ILUC)—
EU
Renewable
Energy Directive
and
US
Renewable
Fuel
Standard:
methods
to assess
ILUC;
national
information
systems
should
include • Foreign
Direct
Investment—
Information
sharing
between countries
on
risks
and
benefits
needed
+
identify compatible
strategies
(legal,
standards‐based,
financial) with
investors
and
stakeholders.
Interventions
at
relevant
scales
and
key
actors
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Interventions
at
relevant
scales:
International Supply‐
and
demand‐side
tools: •Voluntary
measures
(e.g
EU
FLEGT
Voluntary Partnership
Agreements,
procurement
and
sourcing commitments)
or
regulatory
(e.g.
import
controls) •Exploring
synergies—how
addressing
one
driver
affects other
underlying
drivers—of
importance
in
designing interventions. – Example:
international
efforts
to
control
illegal
logging
has spin‐off
effects
in
generally
improving
forest
sector governance,
a
key
underlying
driver
(Lawson
and
McFaul, 2010).
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Interventions
at
relevant
scales:
International • Large
purchasers:
Consumer
Goods
Forum
zero
net
deforestation
by
2020, initial
focus
on
beef,
soy,
palm
oil
and
paper/pulp. • Government
facilitated
commitments:
The
Netherlands—all
imported palm
oil
sustainable
by
2015.

The
UK
mapping
supply
chains
of
palm
oil. EU
member
countries’
timber
and
sustainable
wood
procurement
policies. • Import
controls,
laws,
bilateral
agreements
and
trade
accords:
e.g.
EU Voluntary
Partnership
Agreements
on
FLEGT
and
the
US
Lacey
Act. • Commodity
roundtables,
sustainability
standards
and
certification:

RSPO, RTRS,
Bonsucro,
Better
Cotton
Initiative,
RSB,
FSC
(chain‐of‐custody, national
controlled
wood
or
group
certification). • Public‐private
sector
partnerships:
e.g.
US
announcement
at
Rio+20
to promote
sustainable
supply
chains
with
Consumer
Goods
Forum. • Impact
and
carbon
disclosure:

e.g.
Global
Canopy
Programme’s
Forest Footprint
Disclosure
Project,
now
part
of
Carbon
Disclosure
Project.
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Interventions
at
relevant
scales
and
key
actors:
Conclusions
and
Recommendations
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Conclusions
and
recommendations:
National
levels • Most
countries
lack
data
to
quantitatively identify
drivers,
and
thus
need: – Support
through
resources
and
assistance
in readiness
activities. – Integration
of
information
beyond
the
forest
sector – Methodological
guidance
on
tracking
drivers: improved
data
quality
on
drivers,
land
use
and
land use
change,
est.
emissions,
IPCC
methods – Assessment
of
historical,
recent
and
projected
future drivers:
critical
for
design
of
REDD+
strategies,
and can
help
quantify
and
justify
adjustments
to
forest reference
(emission)
levels
(step‐wise
approach)
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Conclusions
and
recommendations:
National
levels • Look
beyond
the
forest
sector
to
design
and
frame
interventions
to address
drivers—assess
sector
policies
(in
agriculture,
mining, infrastructure,
energy,
and
forestry)
that
conflict
with
REDD+
objectives, and
develop
comprehensive
plans
to
meet
sustainable
development objectives,
enabled
with
cross‐sectoral
commitments
and political/institutional
support. – Low
carbon
development
plans/national
climate
change
action
plans – REDD+
incentives
alone
not
enough—need
effective
land
use
planning,
policies
and incentives – Incentives,
disincentives
and
enabling
measures
need
to
reach
key
actors
and
at
right scale – Demand‐
and
supply‐side
initiatives
(e.g.
commodity
roundtables)
not
prominent enough
in
readiness
plans.
Align
with
REDD+. – Livelihoods
of
local
communities
may
depend
on
current
drivers
of
deforestation
and forest
degradation:
intervention
strategies
must
consider
impacts
(ex
poste
and
ex
ante and
adhere
to
safeguards. • Foundational
activities
for
success
in
addressing
drivers:
improve governance,
transparency,
capacity
and
enforcement,
combat
illegal activities
and
provide
secure
tenure
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Conclusions
and
recommendations:
International levels • Countries
focused
on
national
and
local
level
drivers,
but
face
international drivers
that
are
expected
to
increase
in
pressure. • Engage
finance
as
a
tool
to
change
driver
activity:
e.g.
codes
of
conduct
or sustainability
guidelines
for
providing
international
finance,
such
as
Equator Principles,
International
Finance
Corporation
Performance
Standards,
etc. • Promote
government‐facilitated
commitments
on
sustainable commodities,
public‐private
partnerships
(can
influence
indirect
land
use change
and
foreign
direct
investment). • International
information
sharing:
cross‐border
trade,
domestic
and
trans‐ boundary
drivers,
best
practices
and
lessons
learned,
periodic
global assessments. • Recognize
linkages
between
REDD+
and
emerging
agricultural
mitigation and
adaptation—orchestrated
and
complementary
funding
streams
to countries
(link
and
integrate
REDD+
activities
and
NAMAs,
particularly agriculture).
Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Thank
you! Gabrielle Kissinger Dr. Martin Herold Principal Chair of Remote Sensing Lexeme Consulting Center of Geo-Information Vancouver, Canada Department of gabrielle@lexemeconsulting.com Environmental Science Wageningen University martin.herold@wur.nl

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Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation

  • 1.
  • 2. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Authors: Gabrielle Kissinger, Lexeme Consulting Martin Herold, Wageningen University Veronique De Sy, Wageningen University Made
possible
by
financial
assistance
from: 
United
Kingdom
Departments
for
Energy
and
Climate
Change
(DECC) and
International
Development
(DFID) and
The
Government
of
Norway’s
International
Climate
and
Forest Initiative Presentation by Gabrielle Kissinger and Martin Herold COP 18 side-event, 26 November 2012, Doha, Qatar
  • 3. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Appendix
II
of
the
December
2010
Cancún
Decision
1/CP.16 requests
the
SBSTA
to: (a)
Identify
land
use,
land‐use
change
and
forestry
activities
in developing
countries,
in
particular
those
that
are
linked
to
the drivers
of
deforestation
and
forest
degradation,
identify
the associated
methodological
issues
to
estimate
emissions
and removals
resulting
from
these
activities,
and
assess
the potential
contribution
of
these
activities
to
the
mitigation
of climate
change,
and
report
on
the
findings
and
outcomes
of this
work
to
the
Conference
of
the
Parties
(COP)
at
its eighteenth
session
on
the
outcomes
of
the
work
referred
to
in this
paragraph;
  • 4. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Overview
of
presentation: 1. Assessment
of
current
and
future
drivers 2. The
role
of
drivers
in
national
forest monitoring
and
in
developing
forest reference
(emission)
levels 3. Drivers
in
REDD+
policy
development
and implementation 4. Interventions
at
relevant
scales
and
key actors 5. Conclusions
and
recommendations
  • 5. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Definitions: • Proximate/direct
causes:
human
activities
or
immediate actions
that
directly
impact
forest
cover
and
loss
of
carbon  Deforestation:
commercial
agriculture,
subsistence
agriculture, mining,
infrastructure
and
urban
expansion  Forest
degradation:
logging,
fires,
livestock
grazing
in
forest, fuelwood
collection
and
charcoal
production • Underlying/indirect
causes:
complex
interactions
of fundamental
social,
economic,
political,
cultural
and technological
processes
‐
often
distant
from
their
area
of impact  Important
to
address
them
separately
and
examine
them
at various
scales
for
specific
analysis
and
intervention
strategies
  • 7. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Assessment
of
current
drivers:  Country REDD+ readiness activities – first inventory of what countries identify as relevant and important drivers  Methods: R-PIN, R-PP, a study on proximate drivers of deforestation of 25 tropical countries (Mathews et al., 2010), CIFOR country profiles and the UNFCCC national communications  nominal, ordinal or ratio-scale data for 46 non-Annex I countries (78% of total forest area in 2010)  Hosonuma et al. 2012, ERL: http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/044009
  • 8. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Direct/proximate
drivers:
Deforestation
  • 9. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Direct/proximate
drivers:
Deforestation • Agriculture
estimated
to
drive
80%
of deforestation
worldwide • Commercial
agriculture:

biggest
driver in
Latin
America
(2/3
of
total deforested
area) • Commercial
agriculture
in
Africa
and (sub)tropical
Asia
(1/3
of
total deforested
area)
and
of
similar importance
to
subsistence
agriculture
  • 10. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Direct/proximate
drivers:
Degradation • Latin
America
and
(sub)tropical Asia:
Commercial
timber extraction
and
logging
>
70%
of total
degradation • Africa:
Fuel
wood
collection, charcoal
production
  • 11. Indirect
or
underlying
drivers Future • Economic
growth – Based
on
export
of
primary
commodities • Population
growth
/
Urban
growth • Demand
for
timber
and
agricultural
products • Countries
(31
national
REDD+
R‐PPs): – Weak
forest
sector
governance
and
institutions, conflicting
policies
beyond
forest
sector
and
illegal activity
(93%) – Population
growth
(51%) – Poverty
and
insecure
tenure
(both
48%)
  • 13. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Identifying
forest
change
drivers:
important
data stream
for
REDD+
design
and
implementation: •Define
REDD+
interventions
(priorities) •Engagement
with
non‐forest
sectors •Track
them
to
assess
the
impact
of
mitigation •Define
priorities
for
monitoring
and
MRV •National
circumstances
for
adjusting
R(E)Ls •Requires
resources
and
efforts
additional
to estimation
and
reporting
of
GHG
emissions
  • 14. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 National
capacities
for
monitoring
drivers:
  • 15. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Analysing
and
assessing
proximate
drivers • Linking
forest
area
changes
to
specific
activities and
follow‐up
land
use
(remote
sensing
analysis) • Spatial
context
and
location,
and
other
features (e.g.
roads,
settlements)
can
help
in interpretation • Local
and
regional
knowledge
(experts
and communities),
ground
observations • GHG
emissions
from
drivers:
commonly
not available
on
national
level • Some
activities
or
land
uses
also
result
in additional
GHG
emissions;
i.e.,
agriculture
  • 16. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Linking
area
change
monitoring
with
proximate drivers:
  • 17. Forest
carbon
stock
impact
of
different
activities Human
induced
disturbance causing
loss
of
forest:
fire,
clearing,
selective
extraction,
… th Primary
forest w ging ra l
 regro u s
log Natu uo Co ntin Carbon
stock o n iv ati lt g
 cu n h ifti S Deforestation Time
  • 18. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Analysing
and
assessing
underlying
drivers • Link
between
deforestation
patterns
and underlying
causes
important
for
developing RL/RELs
–
but
often
difficult • Statistical
analysis
and
modelling
using
economic and
demographic
indicators,
analysis
of
policy and
governance
issues
(global,
national) • Required
national
and
local
data
often
not
easily available:
scattered
among
different
sources, sectors
and
ministries
  • 19. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Role
of
drivers
for
developing
forest
reference
(emission)
levels: • REL
first
key
“number”
to
be
provided
by
REDD+
countries • Historical
data
and
understanding
forest
change
patterns and
underlying
causes
are
important – to
take
national
circumstances
into
account, – to
construct
scenarios
that
deviate
from
historical
trends. • The
availability
of
data
on
drivers
is
uncertain
in
many REDD+
countries – Stepwise
approach
as
starting
point
to
match
available data
and
their
quality
with
the
choice
of
reference
level methods,
its
uncertainties
and
country
circumstances
  • 20. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Overview
of
a
potential
step‐wise
framework
for
setting
RELs • Availability

&
quality
of
data
should
determine
the
methods
to
develop reference
levels • National
capacities
and
the
quality
of
reference
levels
can
be
improved over
time Source:
CIFOR
policy
brief,
2012
  • 21. Stepwise
REDD+
national
monitoring • CIFOR/GOFC‐GOLD
side
event
on
stepwise
Progress
in National
Forest
Monitoring,
MRV,
Reference
Levels
and Assessing
Drivers, – Wednesday,
28
November,
15.00‐16.30hrs,
Qatar
National Convention
Center
(QNCC),
Side
Event
Room
4 • Updated
version
of
the
GOFC‐GOLD
Sourcebook: – http://www.gofcgold.wur.nl/redd/index.php • CIFOR/GOFC‐GOLD
report
on
capacity
development
in national
forest
monitoring – http://www.cifor.org/online‐library/browse/view‐ publication/publication/3944.html
  • 23. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Indirect/Underlying
drivers: • Economic
growth
based
on
the
export
of
primary
commodities
+ increasing
demand
for
timber
and
agricultural
products
in
a
globalizing economy
are
critical. • 93%
of
countries:
identify
weak
forest
sector
governance
and institutions,
including
conflicting
policies
beyond
the
forest
sector
(lack of
cross‐sectoral
coordination),
and
illegal
activity
(weak enforcement).
See
Appendix
A. • Population
growth
next
most
common
reported
underlying
driver (51%),
followed
by
poverty
(48%)
and
insecure
tenure
(48%). • 41%
of
countries
mention
international
and
market
forces
(commodity markets,
prices,
and
foreign
direct
investment). • Some
countries
that
reference
agricultural
export
commodities
as direct
drivers
don’t
make
linkage
to
international
and
market
forces
as underlying
drivers.
  • 24. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Future
Trends:
Global
population: • Global
increase,
predominantly
in
urban areas,
to
8.2
billion
in
2030 • Largest
increases
in
population
in
Africa
(+235 million)
and
Asia
&
Pacific
(+255
million) • Stabilized
population
level
of
8
to
10
billion after
2050
due
to
rising
living
standards, urbanization,
and
declining
birth
rates
  • 25. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Future
Trends:
Economic
growth: • Brazil,
the
Russian
Federation,
India
and
China are
anticipated
to
continue
growing
over
the
next ten
years
at
8%
per
annum
(OECD/FAO,
2012) • Developing
world
will
account
for
more
than
half of
global
economic
growth
throughout
2012/14 (World
Bank,
2012) • Mining:
Developing
countries
and
emerging markets
will
see
greatest
supply
and
demand expansion
(PriceWaterhouseCoopers,
2012).
  • 26. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Future
Trends:

Agricultural
commodities: • Overall,
70%
increase
in
demand
for
food
products
by
2050
(FAO, 2009) • Oil
seeds:

23%
production
increase
2011
–
2020,
2/3
of
which
to
occur in
non‐Annex
1
countries
(OECD/FAO,
2011) • Oil
palm:
45%
rise
in
palm
oil
output,
mainly
by
Indonesia
and Malaysia(OECD/FAO
2011) • Meat:
85%
increase
in
volume
of
meat
produced
by
2050
(FAO,
2009), 78%
of
the
additional
output
to
occur
in
developing
countries
(Latin America‐Brazil),
growth
in
demand:
large
economies
in
Asia,
Latin America
and
oil
exporting
countries
(OECD/FAO
2011) • Biofuels:

By
2020,
21%
of
the
increase
in
global
coarse
grains production
above
current
levels,
29%
of
the
global
vegetable
oil production’s
increase,
and
68%
of
global
sugar
cane
production’s increase
will
go
to
biofuels
(OECD/FAO,
2011).

EU,
US,
Brazil,
China, India
and
others
have
biofuel
targets.
  • 27. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Future
Trends:
Wood
products
(pulp,
paper,
sawlogs): • Annual
plantation
production
capacity:
1.8
billion
m3
per year
by
2020 • >
80%
production
potential
located
in
tropics
and
southern hemisphere • Brazil,
China
and
Russia
to
dominate,
India
and
Vietnam increase
market
share
of
the
international
trade
of
wood products
by
2020
(FAO
Advisory
Committee
on
Paper
and Wood
Products,
2007).
Note:
domestic
consumption, domestic
fuel
wood
use
and
illegal
logging
not
represented in
trade
statistics. • EU
and
US
Import
controls
stemming
illegal
logging, however
int’l
and
domestic
trade
willing
to
source
illegal wood
will
increase.
  • 28. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Future
Trends:
Fuel
Wood/Charcoal: • People
reliant
on
traditional
biomass
use globally
to
decrease
by
175
million
between 2008
and
2030 • Demand
for
charcoal
likely
to
increase
due
to increased
urbanization • 34%
increase
in
fuel
wood
consumption
from 2000‐2020
in
Sub‐Saharan
Africa
(FAO,
2009)
  • 29. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Drivers:
REDD+
policy
development
and implementation:
  • 30. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 National‐level
interventions: • Incentives,
disincentives
and
enabling
measures • Policy‐
or
incentive‐based
interventions • Need
to
focus
interventions
on
direct
and underlying
drivers
simultaneously
for
success. • Need
a
mix
of
incentive
investments, disincentives
and
enabling
measures,
under
a comprehensive
REDD+
strategy,
aimed
at
the most
important
proximate
and
underlying
drivers for
greatest
success.
Measures
pursued
singly, e.g.
agricultural
intensification,
will
be
less effective
or
counter‐productive.
  • 31. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 
Summary
of
national
REDD+
readiness
plan
interventions
and
strategies
to
address
drivers
  • 32. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Land
tenure
security: • 48%
list
insecure
tenure
as
a
key
underlying factor
of
unsustainable
forest
use
(refer
to Appendix
A). • R‐PP’s:
tenure
directly
relates
to
legal
and
illegal forest
clearing
activity,
and
government
roles
in management
and
enforcement
of
policies. • Land
tenure
security
=
less
deforestation,
and secure
tenure
more
important
than
the
form
of tenure
for
designing
policies
to
influence
forest outcomes
(Robinson
et
al.,
2011)
  • 33. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Adequate
information
systems: Countries
need: •Integration
of
information
beyond
the
forest
sector:
track driver
activity,
social
and
environmental
safeguards,
and evaluation
of
trade‐offs
and
livelihood
implications •Simultaneous
climate
change
mitigation
and
adaptation impacts
and
measures
(food
security) •Established
uniform
criteria
on
land‐use
classifications
+



 capacities
of
sectoral
and
regional
information
systems •Acknowledge
IPCC
LULUCF
guidance;
some
countries
want further
UNFCCC
guidance
on
reporting
frameworks
for
REDD+ MRV
system
design
and
inventory
reporting
formats
to support
assessing
drivers
of
land
use
change
  • 34. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 REDD+
compensation,
opportunity
costs
and good
governance: • Distinguish
between
legal
and
illegal
activity
and
status
of
land
use rights. • How
to
compete?:
NPV
of
oil
palm
plantations:
US
$6000
–
US $9000/ha,
but
carbon
credits
incentives
yield
US
$614
–
US
$994 per
hectare
(Pacheco
et
al.,
2012;
Fisher
et
al.,
2011). Solutions: • Strengthen
laws
and
regulations,
fiscal
mechanisms
(e.g.
taxes
and subsidies),
and
public
investments
(e.g.
tenure
reform,
benefit‐ sharing,
rehabilitating
degraded
land)
rather
than
opportunity
costs to
affect
rates
and
drivers
of
deforestation
(Gregersen
et
al.,
2010). • Should
be
national
in
scale:
avoids
leakage
between
regional
or project
scales
and
overpaying
for
high
opportunity
cost
emission reductions.
  • 35. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Intensifying
agricultural
production
without causing
deforestation: • Land‐sparing
hypothesis
is
flawed • Brazil,
Ghana
and
Indonesia:
three
key
levers
across regions
and
commodities: – provision
of
up‐front
public
finance,
followed
by
low‐ interest
loans, – establishment
and
enforcement
of
the
correct
enabling policy
and
regulatory
frameworks, – the
need
for
significant
public
investment
in
increasing
the capacity
of
agricultural
producers,
particularly smallholders
(Prince’s
Charities’
International Sustainability
Unit,
2012)
  • 36. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Intensifying
agricultural
production
≠ deforestation
(cont.): Brazil: •Cereal,
pulse
and
oilseed
production

185%
(1990
–
2012),
but deforestation

almost
75%
since
2004. •Agricultural
intensification
+
policies
promoting
use
of
degraded lands—dependent
on
there
being
enough
degraded
land
(Macedo
et
al., 2012) •Combination
of
market
pressure,
forest
code
enforcement,
technical guidance
and
land‐use
planning,
financing
and
incentives,
increasing
areas under
multiple
uses
(crop‐livestock‐forest
integration,
silvopastoral
and agroforestry
systems). Indonesia: •Palm
oil
cultivation
from
9.7
million
ha
to
18
million
ha
by
2020
without deforestation
possible
via
a
properly
planned
and
spatially
explicit development
strategy
(Koh
and
Ghazoul,
2010).
  • 37. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Cross‐sectoral
commitments:
Acre
State,
Brazil Acre
State’s
REDD+
programme: •Encompasses
all
land‐use
types,
including
the
full
range of
agricultural
uses
that
affect
Acre’s
forests, •Mix
of
incentives
and
payments,
bundled
under
an umbrella
REDD+
programme
linked
directly
to
Acre Sustainable
Development
Plan,
bringing
small‐,
medium‐ and
large‐scale
producers, •Emission
reduction
targets
are
nested
within
federal targets,
based
on
multi‐sector
land‐use
plans
and commitments, •Governance
of
the
programme,
including
enforcement abilities,
appears
strong.
  • 38. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Challenges: • Leakage/displacement—Tracking
across
borders
and
across regions
complex!
Could
combine
information
from
national systems
and
international
sources,
enabling
countries
to design
synergistic
REDD+
strategies.
Also
increase
REDD+ participation. • Indirect
land‐use
change
(ILUC)—
EU
Renewable
Energy Directive
and
US
Renewable
Fuel
Standard:
methods
to assess
ILUC;
national
information
systems
should
include • Foreign
Direct
Investment—
Information
sharing
between countries
on
risks
and
benefits
needed
+
identify compatible
strategies
(legal,
standards‐based,
financial) with
investors
and
stakeholders.
  • 40. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Interventions
at
relevant
scales:
International Supply‐
and
demand‐side
tools: •Voluntary
measures
(e.g
EU
FLEGT
Voluntary Partnership
Agreements,
procurement
and
sourcing commitments)
or
regulatory
(e.g.
import
controls) •Exploring
synergies—how
addressing
one
driver
affects other
underlying
drivers—of
importance
in
designing interventions. – Example:
international
efforts
to
control
illegal
logging
has spin‐off
effects
in
generally
improving
forest
sector governance,
a
key
underlying
driver
(Lawson
and
McFaul, 2010).
  • 41. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Interventions
at
relevant
scales:
International • Large
purchasers:
Consumer
Goods
Forum
zero
net
deforestation
by
2020, initial
focus
on
beef,
soy,
palm
oil
and
paper/pulp. • Government
facilitated
commitments:
The
Netherlands—all
imported palm
oil
sustainable
by
2015.

The
UK
mapping
supply
chains
of
palm
oil. EU
member
countries’
timber
and
sustainable
wood
procurement
policies. • Import
controls,
laws,
bilateral
agreements
and
trade
accords:
e.g.
EU Voluntary
Partnership
Agreements
on
FLEGT
and
the
US
Lacey
Act. • Commodity
roundtables,
sustainability
standards
and
certification:

RSPO, RTRS,
Bonsucro,
Better
Cotton
Initiative,
RSB,
FSC
(chain‐of‐custody, national
controlled
wood
or
group
certification). • Public‐private
sector
partnerships:
e.g.
US
announcement
at
Rio+20
to promote
sustainable
supply
chains
with
Consumer
Goods
Forum. • Impact
and
carbon
disclosure:

e.g.
Global
Canopy
Programme’s
Forest Footprint
Disclosure
Project,
now
part
of
Carbon
Disclosure
Project.
  • 42. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Interventions
at
relevant
scales
and
key
actors:
  • 44. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Conclusions
and
recommendations:
National
levels • Most
countries
lack
data
to
quantitatively identify
drivers,
and
thus
need: – Support
through
resources
and
assistance
in readiness
activities. – Integration
of
information
beyond
the
forest
sector – Methodological
guidance
on
tracking
drivers: improved
data
quality
on
drivers,
land
use
and
land use
change,
est.
emissions,
IPCC
methods – Assessment
of
historical,
recent
and
projected
future drivers:
critical
for
design
of
REDD+
strategies,
and can
help
quantify
and
justify
adjustments
to
forest reference
(emission)
levels
(step‐wise
approach)
  • 45. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Conclusions
and
recommendations:
National
levels • Look
beyond
the
forest
sector
to
design
and
frame
interventions
to address
drivers—assess
sector
policies
(in
agriculture,
mining, infrastructure,
energy,
and
forestry)
that
conflict
with
REDD+
objectives, and
develop
comprehensive
plans
to
meet
sustainable
development objectives,
enabled
with
cross‐sectoral
commitments
and political/institutional
support. – Low
carbon
development
plans/national
climate
change
action
plans – REDD+
incentives
alone
not
enough—need
effective
land
use
planning,
policies
and incentives – Incentives,
disincentives
and
enabling
measures
need
to
reach
key
actors
and
at
right scale – Demand‐
and
supply‐side
initiatives
(e.g.
commodity
roundtables)
not
prominent enough
in
readiness
plans.
Align
with
REDD+. – Livelihoods
of
local
communities
may
depend
on
current
drivers
of
deforestation
and forest
degradation:
intervention
strategies
must
consider
impacts
(ex
poste
and
ex
ante and
adhere
to
safeguards. • Foundational
activities
for
success
in
addressing
drivers:
improve governance,
transparency,
capacity
and
enforcement,
combat
illegal activities
and
provide
secure
tenure
  • 46. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Conclusions
and
recommendations:
International levels • Countries
focused
on
national
and
local
level
drivers,
but
face
international drivers
that
are
expected
to
increase
in
pressure. • Engage
finance
as
a
tool
to
change
driver
activity:
e.g.
codes
of
conduct
or sustainability
guidelines
for
providing
international
finance,
such
as
Equator Principles,
International
Finance
Corporation
Performance
Standards,
etc. • Promote
government‐facilitated
commitments
on
sustainable commodities,
public‐private
partnerships
(can
influence
indirect
land
use change
and
foreign
direct
investment). • International
information
sharing:
cross‐border
trade,
domestic
and
trans‐ boundary
drivers,
best
practices
and
lessons
learned,
periodic
global assessments. • Recognize
linkages
between
REDD+
and
emerging
agricultural
mitigation and
adaptation—orchestrated
and
complementary
funding
streams
to countries
(link
and
integrate
REDD+
activities
and
NAMAs,
particularly agriculture).
  • 47. Drivers
of
Deforestation
and
Forest
Degradation:
A
Synthesis Report
for
Policymakers
,
26
November.
2012 Thank
you! Gabrielle Kissinger Dr. Martin Herold Principal Chair of Remote Sensing Lexeme Consulting Center of Geo-Information Vancouver, Canada Department of gabrielle@lexemeconsulting.com Environmental Science Wageningen University martin.herold@wur.nl