2020_05_08_CBCovid Texas Coastal Bend Pandemic Report May 8, 2020

1. TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT
May 8, 2020
CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force
Speakers: Dr. Philippe Tissot & Dr. Chris Bird
1

2. ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS &
QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 &
INTERVENTIONS
ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED DECISION
MAKING
2
TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES

3. REPORT FOR
12 COUNTY COASTAL BEND
Aransas
Bee
Brooks
Duval
Jim Wells
Kenedy
Kleberg
Live Oak
Nueces
McMullen
Refugio
San Patricio
3

4. 4
NUECES CONFIRMED:
117 CASES
73 RECOVERIES
3 FATALITIES
4
4 CB
FATALITIES
101 CB
RECOVERIES
COVID-19 CASES ACCELERATING
166 COASTAL
BEND CASES

5. 5
BEXAR
CASES
COASTAL
BEND CASES
BX FATALITIES
CB FATALITIES
5
San Antonio = Bexar County (BX)

6. Tracking the Effect of Interventions is Critical
in Avoiding the Second Wave
6
In the Dark Knight, Batman Used Cell Phone Data To Locate the Joker

7. Saturdays
7
STAY
AT
HOME
BASELINE
TRACKING INTERVENTION EFFECTIVENESS
Cell Phone
Location Model
• Number of
encounters per
km2 per day
scaled to
Nueces
• Estimate
probability of
contact
• 2 devices within
50 meters for
less than 60
minutes

8. 8
NUECES
REST OF COASTAL BEND
Lowest Cell Phone
Encounter Index Values
Time Lag

9. PERCENT POSITIVE TESTS
ROUGHLY LEVEL

10. 10
Stay-at-Home
NUECES
REST OF COASTAL BEND

11. 11
BEXAR
COASTAL BEND
Stay-at-Home

12. 1. MANDATORY STAY-AT-HOME IF YOU CAN
2. LOOSENING RESTRICTIONS ON
SOCIAL/PUBLIC GATHERING
3. SCHOOL CLOSURES
4. SOCIAL DISTANCING
5. SELF ISOLATE WHEN SYMPTOMATIC
12
REVIEW OF INTERVENTIONS

13. 2.9
13
WITHOUT INTERVENTIONS
COVID-19 SPREADS
PEOPLE INFECTED
PER CARRIER Week
1
Week
2
Week
3
Week
4
9
26 76
3
13
SOUTH TEXAS

14. INTERVENTIONS REDUCE
TRANSMISSION OF COVID-19
WITH PRESENT
INTERVENTIONS
1.5
2
3 5
1
14
SOUTH TEXAS

15. 1. “OPEN TEXAS” 100% MAY 1
• End stay-at-home, allow public gatherings
• Keep other interventions
2. “OPEN TEXAS” 50% MAY 1, 75% MAY 8, 100%
MAY 15
• Roll back Stay-at-Home, public gatherings in stages
• Keep other interventions
3. WE OFFSET SUNSETING INTERVENTIONS WITH
ELEVATED SOCIAL DISTANCING, MASKS, ETC… 15
3 STATEWIDE SCENARIOS MODELED
IN COASTAL BEND

16. 16
Second Wave
In Coastal Bend
STAY-AT-HOME
SCENARIO:
“OPEN TEXAS”
APRIL 30

17. 17
Start of
2nd Wave
In Coastal Bend
SCENARIO:
“OPEN TEXAS”
IN STAGES
BY MAY 15
STAY-AT-HOME

18. 18
Slowly
Extinguishes
COVID-19
In Coastal Bend
SCENARIO:
OFFSET
“OPEN TEXAS”
WITH INCREASED
VIGILENCE
STAY-AT-HOME

19. SUMMARY
•New cases in Coastal Bend are rising
• 4.5 per day on average
•Most likely that COVID-19 is spreading in
South TX
• Cell phones, fatalities, epidemiology
•No evidence for decline in COVID-19 in
Coastal Bend since April 23
• Cell phones, fatalities, epidemiology, % positive
cases
19

20. WHAT CAN WE DO TO HELP “OPEN TEXAS” &
CONTROL SPREAD OF COVID-19?
•Other interventions required to
control virus transmission
• CDC ‘Masks in public’ decreases
transmission
• Self-isolate when symptomatic
• Stay-at-Home if you can
• More testing capacity and contact tracing to
identify infection and enable isolation of
infectious people
• New treatments to mitigate effects of
COVID-19
• Seasonality could reduce transmission in
summer, but we’re not sure 20

21. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
• The joint taskforce was created by Judge Canales, City leadership
including City Manager Zanoni, TAMU-CC President Miller and Vice
President Mahdy
• Many Organizations and People Contributed to this Work
• Including: Philippe Tissot, Keren Costanzo, Chris Bird, Daniel McGinn,
Steve Viera, Lucy Huang, Jason Selwyn, Bryan Gillis, Meng Zhao, Greg
Buck, Jason Louis, Hilary Watt, Annette Rodriguez, Mike Mohat, Mike
Simmons, Scott King, Evan Krell, Mahmoud Eldefrawy, Roy Roberts,
Audrey Garza, Gina Concannon, Davey Edwards, Qianqian Liu, Leisha
Martin, Ed Warga, Dante Gonzalez, Tiffany Anderson, Maggie Turner
21
https://www.conradblucherinstitute.org/covid19-response