This report from the Coastal Bend COVID Task Force provides an update on the COVID-19 pandemic in the Texas Coastal Bend region as of March 26, 2021. While new cases have leveled off and are slightly increasing, hospitalizations and fatalities continue to decline. However, cell phone mobility data shows an increase in distance traveled and encounters. The report warns that relying only on vaccinations to slow transmission could lead to another major outbreak and recommends continuing safety measures like face coverings, social distancing, and limiting multi-household gatherings. Vaccinations are encouraged to help control the virus as transmission rates could rise significantly without continued mitigation efforts.

1. 1
@CBCOVID
TEXAS COASTAL BEND
COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT
March 26, 2021
Coastal Bend COVID Task Force

2. ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS &
QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 &
INTERVENTIONS
ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED
DECISION MAKING
2
TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES
@CBCOVID

3. 1. GET VACCINATED
2. AVOID CROWDS
3. FACE COVERINGS & SOCIAL DISTANCING
4. ISOLATE WHEN EXPOSED OR SYMPTOMATIC
5. PARTIAL-ALL REMOTE SCHOOLING
3
COVID-19 INTERVENTIONS
@CBCOVID
HIGH RISK
NuecesKnows.com/risk-dashboard

4. 39,867 RECOVERIES
COASTAL BEND “COVID CONFIRMED” CASES
41,758 TOTAL CASES
680
ACTIVE
CASES
@CBCOVID
ACTIVE CASES
DOWN 1%

5. WHAT HAPPENS IF WE ALL UNMASK vs. STAY THE
COURSE?
• Primary Assumptions of Unmask Model (over optimistic)
• Recovered are immune
• Vaccinated are immune
• Transmission rate not affected by new variants
• 30,000 new vaccinations per week in Coastal Bend
• Additional Assumptions of Unmaks Model Concerning Mitigations
• No other mitigations
• No masks, social distancing, remote work/school, etc…

6. 75% Business
Capacity
50%
75%
TRANSMISSION RATE ESTIMATION
COASTAL BEND
@CBCOVID
Rt = 0.91
TRANSMISSION
RATE COULD RISE
TO 2 OR HIGHER
IF WE RELIED ONLY ON
VACCINATIONS
STARTING TODAY
MODEL FIT
100%

7. DECLINING
75% Business
Capacity
50%
75%
DAILY CONFIRMED COVID CASES
COASTAL BEND
@CBCOVID
SCENARIO:
ONLY MITIGATION
IS VACCINATION
PROJECTION
100%

8. LIVE OAK
ARANSAS
REFUGIO
8
NUECES
BEE
KLEBERG
JIM WELLS
@CBCOVID
ARANSAS
SAN PATRICIO

9. 75% 50%
AMARILLO
DAL/FTW
HOUSTON
EL PASO
S. TEXAS
AUSTIN
SAN ANT
75% Business
Capacity
LONGVW
DAILY COVID CASES PER 100K
TEXAS PUBLIC HEALTH REGIONS
@CBCOVID
CONTINUED
DECREASE
100%

10. DAILY CENSUS COVID INPATIENTS
DECLINING
CENSUS
MORE INPATIENTS
PER COVID CASE
75% Business
Capacity
50%
75%
COASTAL BEND
@CBCOVID
PROJECTION
100%

11. CENSUS ICU PATIENTS: MAR 25
COASTAL BEND
NON-
COVID
COVID
182
154
28
ICU COVID PATIENTS
LEVEL
COVID
@CBCOVID

12. PAUSE VIDEO TO
INSPECT
PATIENT
CENSUS
NON-COVID
COVID
COVID
@CBCOVID
TEXAS ICU PATIENTS: MAR 25

13. PATIENT
CENSUS
NON-COVID
COVID
COVID
@CBCOVID
TEXAS ICU PATIENTS: MAR 25
EFFECT OF
COVID ON ICU
RELATIVELY LOW
IN MOST OF
STATE

14. 14
DAILY COVID FATALITIES
PROJECTED
DECLINE
COASTAL BEND
@CBCOVID
75% Business
Capacity
50%
75%
PROJECTION
100%

15. 15
COASTAL BEND COVID-19 FATALITIES
* Death certificates
from past 14 days still
being processed
@CBCOVID
744 NUECES
1,211* COASTAL
BEND

17. 14.6%

18. ICE STORM
CHRISTMAS
THANKSGIVING
NONESSENTIAL
VISITS
DISTANCE
TRAVELLED
ENCOUNTERS
NUECES CELL PHONE METRICS
NORMAL
SPRING
BREAK

19. SUMMARY
19
@CBCOVID
•New cases level – slightly increasing
•Hospitalizations, fatalities declining
•Cell phone metrics rising
•If we rely only on vaccinations to slow down COVID
transmission, there will be another major outbreak
• Stay vigilant
• Get vaccinated if you can
• Face coverings (double up) + social distancing
• Multi-household celebrations discouraged

20. 20
@CBCOVID
TEXAS COASTAL BEND
COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT
March 26, 2021
Coastal Bend COVID Task Force