2020_10_13_CBCovid Texas Coastal Bend Pandemic Report October 13, 2020

1. 1
https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID
TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC
REPORT
October 13, 2020
CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force

2. ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS &
QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 &
INTERVENTIONS
ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED
DECISION MAKING
2
TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES

3. 1. STAY-AT-HOME IF YOU CAN
2. SOCIAL DISTANCING & FACE COVERINGS
3. SELF ISOLATE WHEN SYMPTOMATIC
4. SCHOOL RESTRICTIONS
5. OPEN TX 1, 2, 3, 2, 1.5, 3
3
INTERVENTIONS & OPENING TX
https://open.texas.gov/

4. PERCENT OF PATIENTS THAT ARE COVID+
PHASE 3 “PHASE 3”
“PHASE 1.5”
15
% COVID PATIENTS
DECLINING
9.0%
COASTAL BEND
ADULTS

5. Avg
Estimated
Persons
Infected
Per
Carrier
COASTAL BEND
TRANSMISSION
RATE (Rt)
0.9-1.0
0
100
80
60
40
20
Probability
R
t
<
1
TRAUMA
SERVICE
AREAS
*

6. 6
COVID-19 Confirmed
Admits to
Coastal Bend Hospitals
COVID-19
PATIENTS
88
DEVIATION FROM
PROJECTION IN
HOSPITALIZATIONS,
BUT NOT IN CASES
COASTAL BEND
Simulation Assumes
Rt = 0.9 Since July 10

7. ICU STILL OVER NORMAL CAP
COASTAL BEND ICU
PATIENT
CENSUS
NON-COVID
COVID
144
121
23
ICU PATIENTS
DECLINING SLOWLY,
OCCUPANCY
SLIGHTLY STRETCHED
COVID

8. 22,643 RECOVERIES
COASTAL BEND “COVID CONFIRMED” CASES
23,851 TOTAL CASES
524
ACTIVE
CASES
Texas-Wide
Outbreak
Receding ACTIVE CASES
DECLINING

9. 1
9/10
2/3
4/5r
6/5s
7
11
8
PUBLIC HEALTH
REGIONS
2
Opn
TX 1 3 2 1.5 3
Rmt
Class
AMARILLO
DALLAS
HOUSTON
LONGVIEW
AUSTIN
SAN ANTONIO EL PASO
SOUTH TEXAS
NORTHWEST TEXAS
COVID CASES RISING
RAPIDLY

10. TEXAS RANKINGS: CASES
Coastal Bend
Note: Cases from recent
data dumps have been
assigned to their
respective test dates for
Nueces County Only
COASTAL BEND:
LOW COVID CASE
RANKING
(GOOD NEWS)

11. NUECES COUNTY
7.7%
12%
All Nueces Testing
*Local PHD
*Mobile Testing
4.4%
PERCENT POSITIVE TESTS
(Overall)
(36%)
(27%)
(20%)
(Today)
*All Negative Results Known, Included

12. 12
COASTAL BEND COVID-19 FATALITIES
Updated Reporting:
Date on Death Certificate
684* CB
* Death certificates
from past 14 days still
being processed

13. 13
COVID-19 Confirmed Fatalities
By New Death Certificate Criteria
COVID-19
FATALITIES
NOTE: DUE TO TX DSHS
PROTOCOL, FATALITIES
IN PAST 14 DAYS ARE
NOT TALLIED
PROJECTED FATALITIES: COASTAL BEND
DECLINE SLOWING

14. 14
In the Dark Knight, Batman Used Cell Phone Data To Locate the Joker
CELL PHONES CAN BE USED TO ASSESS OUR
BEHAVIORS, EVALUATE INTERVENTIONS
Foot
Traffic
Leaving
Home
Potential
Encounters

15. POTENTIAL ENCOUNTERS REMAINING LOW
15
Cell Phone Location Model
• Number of encounters
per km2 per day scaled
to Nueces
• 2 devices within 50
meters for less than 60
minutes
FRI-SAT
MON-THU
HURRICANE
HANNA
OPN
TX 3 2 1.5
MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND
LABOR DAY
WEEKEND
2
Rmt
Class
OPN
TX 3
25%
F2F

16. 16
SCHOOL FOOT TRAFFIC LEVELING (NUECES)
Cell Phone Foot Traffic Model
• Visits to schools counted
• Device near or in building
• safeGraph.com
UNIVERSITIES
K-12
JR COLLEGE
PROTECH
SCHOOLS
OPN
TX 3 2 1.5
Rmt
Class
2
50%
F2F
25%
F2F

17. FOOT TRAFFIC AT HIGH SCHOOL SPORTS FIELDS
17
GRADUATION
RELATIVE TO 2019
OPN
TX 3 2 1.5
2
Rmt
Class
OPN
TX 3
25%
F2F
PERCENT
OF
2019
INDEX
Cell Phone Foot Traffic Model
• Visits to schools counted
• Device near or in building
• safeGraph.com

18. SUMMARY
•Transmission rate remains 0.9-1.0
• Hospitalizations, but not cases, higher than modeled
•New cases remain low locally, but are increasing in
Northwest TX
•Fatalities continue to decline slowly
18
• As occupancies rise & weather cools,
face coverings + social distancing
become increasingly important tools
to avoid another COVID outbreak

19. TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT
October 13, 2020
CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force
19
https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID
Total Cases
Total Cases
Oct 5, 2020