2020_05_01_CBCovid Texas Coastal Bend Pandemic Report May 1, 2020

1. TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT
May 1, 2020
CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force
Speakers: Dr. Philippe Tissot & Dr. Chris Bird
1

2. ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS &
QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 &
INTERVENTIONS
ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED DECISION
MAKING
2
TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES

3. REPORT FOR
12 COUNTY COASTAL BEND
Aransas
Bee
Brooks
Duval
Jim Wells
Kenedy
Kleberg
Live Oak
Nueces
McMullen
Refugio
San Patricio
3

4. 4
COASTAL
BEND CASES
COASTAL BEND CONFIRMED:
• 138 CASES (102 Nueces)
• 54 RECOVERIES (Nueces)*
• 4 FATALITIES (3 Nueces)
CB
FATALITIES
4

5. 5
BEXAR
CASES
COASTAL
BEND CASES
BX FATALITIES
CB FATALITIES
5
San Antonio = Bexar County (BX)

6. 6
Stay-at-Home
NUECES
REST OF COASTAL BEND

7. 7
BEXAR
COASTAL BEND
Stay-at-Home

8. 1. MANDATORY STAY-AT-HOME IF YOU CAN
2. LOOSENING RESTRICTIONS ON
SOCIAL/PUBLIC GATHERING
3. SCHOOL CLOSURES
4. SOCIAL DISTANCING
5. SELF ISOLATE WHEN SYMPTOMATIC
8
REVIEW OF INTERVENTIONS

9. 3.0
9
WITHOUT INTERVENTIONS
COVID-19 SPREADS
PEOPLE INFECTED
PER CARRIER Week
1
Week
2
Week
3
Week
4
9
27 81
3
9

10. INTERVENTIONS REDUCE
TRANSMISSION OF COVID-19
WITH
INTERVENTIONS
0.5
Coin Flip
1
1 0
1
10

11. Tracking the Effect of Interventions is Critical
in Avoiding the Second Wave
11
In the Dark Knight, Batman Used Cell Phone Data To Locate the Joker

12. Saturdays
12
STAY
AT
HOME
BASELINE
TRACKING INTERVENTION EFFECTIVENESS
Cell Phone
Location Model
• Number of
encounters per
km2 per day
scaled to
Nueces
• Estimate
probability of
contact
• 2 devices within
50 meters for
less than 60
minutes

13. 1. “OPEN ECONOMY” 100% MAY 1
• End stay-at-home, allow public gatherings
• Keep other interventions
2. “OPEN ECONOMY” 50% MAY 1, 100% MAY 15
• Roll back Stay-at-Home, public gatherings in stages
• Keep other interventions
3. WE OFFSET SUNSETING INTERVENTIONS WITH
ELEVATED SOCIAL DISTANCING, MASKS, ETC…
13
3 STATEWIDE SCENARIOS MODELED
IN COASTAL BEND

14. 14
Second Wave
In Coastal Bend
STAY-AT-HOME
SCENARIO:
“OPEN ECONOMY”
STATEWIDE
APRIL 30

15. 15
Start of
2nd Wave
In Coastal Bend
SCENARIO:
“OPEN ECONOMY”
IN STAGES
BY MAY 15
STAY-AT-HOME

16. 16
Slowly
Extinguishes
COVID-19
In Coastal Bend
SCENARIO:
OFFSET
“OPEN ECONOMY”
STAY-AT-HOME

17. SUMMARY
•New cases in Coastal Bend are declining
slowly
• 1-2 per day on average
•Most likely that COVID-19 is burning out in
TX
• But transmission ratio rising according to cell
phones
•Curve is flattened but “Opening Economy”
projected to lead to spread of COVID-19
17

18. “OPENING ECONOMY” &
CONTROLLING SPREAD OF COVID-19
•Other interventions required to
control virus transmission
• CDC ‘Masks in public’ decreases
transmission
• Self-isolate when symptomatic
• More testing capacity and contact tracing to
identify infection and enable isolation of
infectious people
• New treatments to mitigate effects of
COVID-19
• Seasonality could reduce transmission in
summer, but we’re not sure 18

19. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
• The joint taskforce was created by Judge Canales, City leadership
including City Manager Zanoni, TAMU-CC President Miller and Vice
President Mahdy
• Many Organizations and People Contributed to this Work
• Including: Philippe Tissot, Keren Costanzo, Chris Bird, Daniel McGinn,
Steve Viera, Lucy Huang, Jason Selwyn, Bryan Gillis, Meng Zhao, Greg
Buck, Jason Louis, Hilary Watt, Annette Rodriguez, Mike Mohat, Mike
Simmons, Scott King, Evan Krell, Mahmoud Eldefrawy, Roy Roberts,
Audrey Garza, Gina Concannon, Davey Edwards, Qianqian Liu, Leisha
Martin, Ed Warga, Dante Gonzalez, Tiffany Anderson, Maggie Turner
19
https://www.conradblucherinstitute.org/covid19-response