2020_10_27_CBCovid Texas Coastal Bend Pandemic Report October 27, 2020

1. 1
https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID
TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC
REPORT
October 27, 2020
CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force
Total Cases
Oct 26, 2020

2. ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS &
QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 &
INTERVENTIONS
ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED
DECISION MAKING
2
TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES

3. 1. STAY-AT-HOME IF YOU CAN
2. SOCIAL DISTANCING & FACE COVERINGS
3. SELF ISOLATE WHEN SYMPTOMATIC or
EXPOSED
4. SCHOOL RESTRICTIONS
5. OPEN TX 1, 2, 3, 2, 1.5, 3
3
INTERVENTIONS & OPENING TX

4. Avg
Estimated
Persons
Infected
Per
Carrier
COASTAL BEND
TRANSMISSION
RATE (Rt)
1.3-2.0
BOTH MODELS
INDICATE COVID
INFECTIONS ARE
INCREASING

5. 23,024 RECOVERIES
COASTAL BEND “COVID CONFIRMED” CASES
24,151 TOTAL CASES
406
ACTIVE
CASES
Texas-Wide
Outbreak
Receding ACTIVE CASES
INCREASING

6. ARANSAS
REFUGIO
6
CASES INCREASING
ACROSS MUCH OF
COASTAL BEND
NUECES
BEE
KLEBERG
DUVAL
SAN PAT.
BROOKS
ARANSAS
JIM WELLS
REFUGIO

7. NUECES COUNTY
21%
10%
All Nueces Testing
*Local PHD
*Mobile Testing
15%
PERCENT POSITIVE TESTS INCREASING
*All Negative Results Known, Included

8. 1
9/10
2/3
4/5r
6/5s
7
11
8
PUBLIC HEALTH
REGIONS
2
Opn
TX 1 3 2 1.5 3
Rmt
Class
AMARILLO
DALLAS
FTW
EL PASO/
LUBBOCK
SOUTH TEXAS
NORTHWEST TEXAS
COVID CASES RISING
RAPIDLY

9. PERCENT OF CB PATIENTS THAT ARE COVID+
https://open.texas.gov/
“PHASE 3”
“PHASE 1.5”
15
INTERVENTIONS
REMAIN SAME:
OPEN TX 3
5.5%

10. ICU STILL OVER NORMAL CAP
COASTAL BEND ICU
PATIENT
CENSUS
NON-COVID
COVID
142
116
26
ICU PATIENTS LEVEL,
MORE THAN
BEFORE OUTBREAK
COVID

11. 11
COASTAL BEND COVID-19 FATALITIES
Reporting by Date on
Death Certificate
721* CB
JIM WELLS FATALITIES
INCREASING
* Death certificates
from past 14 days still
being processed

12. 12
COVID-19 Confirmed Fatalities
By New Death Certificate Criteria
COVID-19
FATALITIES
NOTE: DUE TO TX DSHS
PROTOCOL, FATALITIES
IN PAST 14 DAYS ARE
NOT TALLIED
PROJECTED FATALITIES: COASTAL BEND
FATALITIES NOT
SLOWING DOWN

13. TEXAS RANKINGS: FATALITIES
Coastal Bend
NOTE: DUE TO NEW TX DSHS
PROTOCOL, FATALITIES IN PAST 10
DAYS ARE INCOMPLETE AND ARE
NOT PRESENTED HERE
FATALITIES
LEVELING

14. 14
In the Dark Knight, Batman Used Cell Phone Data To Locate the Joker
CELL PHONES CAN BE USED TO ASSESS OUR
BEHAVIORS, EVALUATE INTERVENTIONS
Foot
Traffic
Leaving
Home
Potential
Encounters

15. 15
K-12 FOOT TRAFFIC INCREASING (NUECES)
Cell Phone Foot Traffic Model
• Visits to schools counted
• Device near or in building
• safeGraph.com
UNIVERSITIES
K-12
JR COLLEGE
PROTECH
SCHOOLS
OPN
TX 3 2 1.5
Rmt
Class
2
50%
F2F
25%
F2F

16. SUMMARY
•Transmission rate (1.3-2.0)
•New cases increasing locally
•Hospitalizations increasing slightly
•Fatalities leveling off, not slowing down
16
• As occupancies rise & weather cools,
face coverings + social distancing
become increasingly important tools
to combat COVID outbreak

17. TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT
October 27, 2020
CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force
17
https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID
Total Cases
Total Cases
Oct 26, 2020