This document is a COVID-19 pandemic report from the Coastal Bend COVID Task Force in Texas dated March 19, 2021. It summarizes that while current transmission rates and cases are declining, relying only on vaccinations could lead to another major outbreak. It recommends continuing safety measures like face coverings, social distancing, and limiting multi-household gatherings. Cell phone data shows mobility increasing in the region. The report analyzes COVID-19 metrics and projections to advise ongoing vigilance and vaccination.

1. 1
@CBCOVID
TEXAS COASTAL BEND
COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT
March 19, 2021
Coastal Bend COVID Task Force

2. ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS &
QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 &
INTERVENTIONS
ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED
DECISION MAKING
2
TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES
@CBCOVID

3. 1. GET VACCINATED
2. AVOID CROWDS
3. FACE COVERINGS & SOCIAL DISTANCING
4. ISOLATE WHEN EXPOSED OR SYMPTOMATIC
5. PARTIAL-ALL REMOTE SCHOOLING
3
COVID-19 INTERVENTIONS
@CBCOVID
HIGH RISK
NuecesKnows.com/risk-dashboard

4. 39,582 RECOVERIES
COASTAL BEND “COVID CONFIRMED” CASES
41,463 TOTAL CASES
685
ACTIVE
CASES
@CBCOVID
ACTIVE CASES
DOWN 23%

5. SCENARIO: WHAT HAPPENS IF WE ALL UNMASK?
• Primary Assumptions of Model (over optimistic)
• Recovered are immune
• Vaccinated are immune
• Transmission rate not affected by new variants
• 30,000 new vaccinations per week in Coastal Bend
• Additional Assumptions Concerning Mitigations
• No other mitigations
• No masks, social distancing, remote work/school, etc…

6. 75% Business
Capacity
50%
75%
TRANSMISSION RATE ESTIMATION
COASTAL BEND
@CBCOVID
Rt = 0.91
TRANSMISSION
RATE COULD RISE
TO 1.8 OR HIGHER
IF WE RELIED ONLY ON
VACCINATIONS
STARTING MARCH 10
MODEL FIT
100%

7. DECLINING
75% Business
Capacity
50%
75%
DAILY CONFIRMED COVID CASES
COASTAL BEND
@CBCOVID
SCENARIO:
ONLY MITIGATION
IS VACCINATION
PROJECTION
100%

8. LIVE OAK
ARANSAS
REFUGIO
8
NUECES
BEE
KLEBERG
JIM WELLS
@CBCOVID
ARANSAS
SAN PATRICIO
DECLINING

9. DAILY CENSUS COVID INPATIENTS
DECLINING
75% Business
Capacity
50%
75%
COASTAL BEND
@CBCOVID
SCENARIO:
ONLY MITIGATION
IS VACCINATION
PROJECTION

10. CENSUS ICU PATIENTS: MAR 17
COASTAL BEND
NON-
COVID
COVID
165
140
25
ICU COVID PATIENTS
DECREASING
COVID
@CBCOVID

11. PAUSE VIDEO TO
INSPECT
PATIENT
CENSUS
NON-COVID
COVID
COVID
@CBCOVID
TEXAS ICU PATIENTS: MAR 17

12. PATIENT
CENSUS
NON-COVID
COVID
COVID
@CBCOVID
TEXAS ICU PATIENTS: MAR 17
EFFECT OF
COVID ON ICU
RELATIVELY LOW
IN MOST OF
STATE

13. 13
DAILY COVID FATALITIES
PROJECTED
DECLINE
COASTAL BEND
@CBCOVID
75% Business
Capacity
50%
75%
SCENARIO:
ONLY MITIGATION
IS VACCINATION
PROJECTION

14. 14
COASTAL BEND COVID-19 FATALITIES
* Death certificates
from past 14 days still
being processed
@CBCOVID
737 NUECES
1,196* COASTAL
BEND

17. ICE STORM
CHRISTMAS
THANKGIVING
NONESSENTIAL VISITS
DISTANCE TRAVELLED
ENCOUNTERS
NUECES CELL PHONE METRICS
NORMAL

18. SUMMARY
18
@CBCOVID
•Transmission rate 0.91 (below 1)
•New cases, hospitalizations, fatalities declining
•Cell phone metrics rising
•If we rely only on vaccinations to slow down COVID
transmission, there will be another major outbreak
• Stay vigilant
• Get vaccinated if you can
• Face coverings (double up) + social distancing
• Multi-household celebrations discouraged

19. 19
@CBCOVID
TEXAS COASTAL BEND
COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT
March 19, 2021
Coastal Bend COVID Task Force