2021_05_01 CBCovid Texas Coastal Bend Pandemic Report May 1, 2021

1. 1
@CBCOVID
TEXAS COASTAL BEND
COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT
May 1, 2021
Coastal Bend COVID Task Force

2. ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS &
QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 &
INTERVENTIONS
ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED
DECISION MAKING
2
TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES
@CBCOVID

3. SUMMARY
3
@CBCOVID
•New cases slightly increasing
•Hospitalizations increasing
•Fatalities level – slightly decreasing
•If we rely only on vaccinations to slow down COVID
transmission, there can be another outbreak
• Stay vigilant
• Get vaccinated if you can
• Face coverings (double up) + social distancing

4. 1. GET VACCINATED
2. AVOID CROWDS
3. FACE COVERINGS & SOCIAL DISTANCING
4. ISOLATE WHEN EXPOSED OR SYMPTOMATIC
5. PARTIAL-ALL REMOTE SCHOOLING
4
COVID-19 INTERVENTIONS
@CBCOVID
HIGH RISK
NuecesKnows.com/risk-dashboard

5. 41,118 RECOVERIES
COASTAL BEND “COVID CONFIRMED” CASES
43,033 TOTAL CASES
774
ACTIVE
CASES
@CBCOVID
24% INCREASE IN
ACTIVE CASES

6. 75% Business
Capacity
50%
75%
TRANSMISSION RATE ESTIMATION
COASTAL BEND
@CBCOVID
Rt = 1.02
MODEL FIT
100%
PROJECTION
MODEL CALIBRATION
Actual Weekly New Cases
Simulated Weekly New Cases

7. 75% Business
Capacity
50%
75%
DAILY CONFIRMED COVID CASES
COASTAL BEND
@CBCOVID
PROJECTION
100%
SLIGHTLY
INCREASING

8. 8
80+
65-79
18-39
@CBCOVID
0-17
40-64

9. LIVE OAK
ARANSAS
9
NUECES
KLEBERG
JIM WELLS
@CBCOVID
ARANSAS
SAN PATRICIO
DUVAL

10. 10
ARANSAS
NUECES
MCALLEN
SAN PAT
LAREDO
BRNSVL
SAN ANT
VICTORIA
CONTINUED
DECREASE
DAILY COVID CASES PER 100K
SELECTED SOUTH TEXAS COUNTIES
@CBCOVID

11. 75% 50%
AMARILLO
DAL/FTW
HOUSTON
EL PASO
S. TEXAS
AUSTIN
SAN ANT
75% Business
Capacity
LONGVW
DAILY COVID CASES PER 100K
TEXAS PUBLIC HEALTH REGIONS
@CBCOVID
CONTINUED
DECREASE
100%

12. DAILY CENSUS COVID INPATIENTS
75% Business
Capacity
50%
75%
COASTAL BEND
@CBCOVID
100%
PROJECTION
INCREASING

13. DAILY CENSUS COVID MEDSURG
LEVEL
75% Business
Capacity
50%
75%
COASTAL BEND
@CBCOVID
PROJECTION
100%

14. DAILY CENSUS COVID ICU
INCREASING
75% Business
Capacity
50%
75%
COASTAL BEND
@CBCOVID
PROJECTION

15. CENSUS ICU PATIENTS: APR 29
COASTAL BEND
NON-
COVID
COVID
169
140
29
ICU COVID PATIENTS
INCREASED
COVID
@CBCOVID

16. PAUSE VIDEO TO
INSPECT
PATIENT
CENSUS
NON-COVID
COVID
COVID
@CBCOVID
TEXAS ICU PATIENTS: APR 29

17. PATIENT
CENSUS
NON-COVID
COVID
COVID
@CBCOVID
TEXAS ICU PATIENTS: APR 29
EFFECT OF
COVID ON ICU
RELATIVELY LOW
IN MOST OF
STATE

18. 18
DAILY COVID FATALITIES
COASTAL BEND
@CBCOVID
75% Business
Capacity
50%
75% 100%
PROJECTION
LEVEL

19. 19
COASTAL BEND COVID-19 FATALITIES
* Death certificates
from past 14 days still
being processed
@CBCOVID
774 NUECES
1,270* COASTAL
BEND

21. 29%

22. INCREASING
ROUGHLY
LINEARLY

24. MORE
VACCINATIONS
NEEDED
TO REACH HERD
IMMUNITY
80+
65-79
16-49
0-15
50-64

25. ICE STORM
CHRISTMAS
NONESSENTIAL
VISITS
DISTANCE
TRAVELLED
ENCOUNTERS
NUECES CELL PHONE METRICS
NORMAL
SPRING
BREAK

26. 26
@CBCOVID
TEXAS COASTAL BEND
COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT
May 1, 2021
Coastal Bend COVID Task Force