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2020_12_21_CBCovid Texas Coastal Bend Pandemic Report December 21, 2020
- 1. 1 @CBCOVID TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT December 21, 2020 Coastal Bend COVID Task Force Total Cases Dec 14, 2020
- 2. ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS & QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 & INTERVENTIONS ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED DECISION MAKING 2 TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES @CBCOVID
- 3. 1. STAY-AT-HOME IF YOU CAN 2. FACE COVERINGS & SOCIAL DISTANCING 3. ISOLATE WHEN EXPOSED OR SYMPTOMATIC 4. PARTIAL REMOTE SCHOOLING 5. “OPEN TX” a. 75% capacity in most businesses 3 COVID-19 INTERVENTIONS @CBCOVID
- 4. TRANSMISSION DROPPED IN WEEK LEADING UP TO THANKSGIVING 75% Business Capacity 50% 75% TRANSMISSION RATE ESTIMATION COASTAL BEND @CBCOVID THANKSGIVING LULL Rt = 1.13
- 5. NEW CASES INCREASING 75% Business Capacity 50% 75% DAILY CONFIRMED COVID CASES COASTAL BEND @CBCOVID UPDATED PROJECTION 50% 75%
- 6. 27,384 RECOVERIES COASTAL BEND “COVID CONFIRMED” CASES 30,776 TOTAL CASES 2,561 ACTIVE CASES @CBCOVID
- 7. NUECES COUNTY 26% 19% PERCENT POSITIVE TESTS Nueces Public Health Dept Mobile Testing @CBCOVID
- 8. LIVE OAK ARANSAS REFUGIO 8 NUECES BEE KLEBERG DUVAL SAN PATRICIO ARANSAS JIM WELLS @CBCOVID REFUGIO
- 9. LIVE OAK ARANSAS REFUGIO 9 MCMULLEN BEE KLEBERG DUVAL KENEDY ARANSAS JIM WELLS @CBCOVID SAN PATRICIO REFUGIO BROOKS
- 10. 75% 50% AMARILLO DAL/FTW HOUSTN EL PASO/ LUBBOCK S. TEXAS AUSTIN SAN ANT 75% Business Capacity LONGVW DAILY COVID CASES PER 100K TEXAS PUBLIC HEALTH REGIONS @CBCOVID
- 11. DAILY CENSUS COVID INPATIENTS EXPECTATION IS FOR COVID PATIENTS TO START DECLINING 75% Business Capacity 50% 75% COASTAL BEND NEW PROJECTION @CBCOVID 50% 75%
- 12. PERCENT OF STAFFED HOSPITAL BEDS WITH COVID INPATIENTS 15 SINCE “THANKSGIVING LULL”, VARYING 8-10% 10% @CBCOVID COASTAL BEND @CBCOVID
- 13. CENSUS ICU PATIENTS COASTAL BEND NON- COVID COVID 163 106 57 ICU COVID PATIENTS INCREASED IN LAST WEEK COVID @CBCOVID
- 15. 15 DAILY COVID FATALITIES FATALITIES RISING COASTAL BEND @CBCOVID NEW PROJECTION 75% Business Capacity 50% 75% 50% 75%
- 16. 16 COASTAL BEND COVID-19 FATALITIES Reporting by Date on Death Certificate 831* CB FATALITIES INCREASING * Death certificates from past 14 days still being processed @CBCOVID
- 17. •Scenario 1: “Normal” Holiday Celebrations • Multifamily celebrations, no masks, etc •Scenario 2: Celebrate Like Thanksgiving 2020 • Model based on observed Rt in Coastal Bend around Thanksgiving 17 HOLIDAY CELEBRATION SCENARIOS @CBCOVID
- 18. 75% Business Capacity 50% 75% DAILY CONFIRMED COVID CASES COASTAL BEND @CBCOVID CELEBRATE LIKE THANKSGIVING 2020 “NORMAL” CELEBRATIONS HOLIDAY CELEBRATION PROJECTIONS
- 19. DAILY CENSUS COVID INPATIENTS 75% Business Capacity 50% 75% COASTAL BEND @CBCOVID CELEBRATE LIKE THANKSGIVING 2020 “NORMAL” CELEBRATIONS HOLIDAY CELEBRATION PROJECTIONS
- 20. 20 DAILY COVID FATALITIES COASTAL BEND @CBCOVID 75% Business Capacity 50% 75% CELEBRATE LIKE THANKSGIVING 2020 “NORMAL” CELEBRATIONS HOLIDAY CELEBRATION PROJECTIONS
- 21. SUMMARY •Transmission rate above 1 • Fall-Winter Outbreak continuing •New cases & hospitalizations increasing again •Fatalities increasing 21 • 2020 not a normal year • Multi-household celebrations discouraged • Face coverings + social distancing @CBCOVID
- 22. TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT 22 Total Cases Nov 23, 2020 @CBCOVID December 21, 2020 Coastal Bend COVID Task Force