2020_05_29_CBCovid Texas Coastal Bend Pandemic Report May 29, 2020

1. TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT
May 29, 2020
CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force
1
https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID

2. ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS &
QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 &
INTERVENTIONS
TODAY WE WILL SELECT QUESTIONS TO
ANSWER FROM FB LIVE
ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED DECISION
MAKING
2
TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES

3. CASE DATA
3
TOPICS ADDRESSED TODAY

4. REPORT FOR
12 COUNTY COASTAL BEND
4
ACTIVE CASES
TOTAL CASES

5. Avg = 200
Out-
Breaks

6. 0.7%
1.3 – 2.2%
Out-
Breaks
NUECES COUNTY

7. 7
NUECES CONFIRMED:
268 TOTAL CASES
117 ACTIVE CASES
148 RECOVERIES
3 FATALITIES
7
4 CB
FATALITIES
195 CB
RECOVERIES
COASTAL BEND COVID-19 CASES
357 CB
TOTAL CASES
159 CB
ACTIVE CASES
Out-
Breaks

8. 8
COASTAL
BEND CASES
BX FATALITIES
CB FATALITIES
8
BEXAR
(San Antonio)
CASES
Out-
Breaks

9. 9
BEXAR (SAN ANTONIO)
Stay-at-Home
COASTAL BEND

10. 10
Stay-at-Home
NUECES
REST OF COASTAL BEND
Out-
Breaks

11. CASE DATA
CELL PHONE DATA
11
TOPICS ADDRESSED TODAY
In the Dark Knight, Batman Used Cell Phone Data To Locate the Joker

12. 1. STAY-AT-HOME IF YOU CAN
2. LOOSENING RESTRICTIONS ON
SOCIAL/PUBLIC GATHERINGS
3. SCHOOL CLOSURES
4. SOCIAL DISTANCING
5. SELF ISOLATE WHEN SYMPTOMATIC
12
PHONE DATA:
EFFECTIVENESS OF INTERVENTIONS

13. 13
STAY
AT
HOME
SCHOOL CLOSURES EFFECTIVE
Cell Phone
Location Model
• Visits to
schools, K-12-
PhD
• Device near or
in building
• safeGraph.com
SCHOOLS
BASELINE

14. 14
STAY
AT
HOME
HOTEL FOOT TRAFFIC INCREASING
Cell Phone
Location Model
• Visits to hotels
• Device near or
in building
• safeGraph.com
SPRING BREAK
SCHOOLS
HOTELS

15. 15
SOME ARE STAYING AT HOME
Cell Phone
Location Model
• Proportion
leaving home
per day
• Device leaves
home triggers
count
• safeGraph.com
STAY
AT
HOME
SCHOOLS
HOTELS
LEAVING
HOME

16. 16
CELL PHONE DATA: EARLY WARNING
STAY
AT
HOME
SCHOOLS
HOTELS
LEAVING
HOME
ENCOUNTERS
Cell Phone
Location Model
• Number of
encounters per
km2 per day
scaled to
Nueces
• Estimate
probability of
contact
• 2 devices within
50 meters for
less than 60
minutes

17. CASE DATA
CELL PHONE DATA
17
TOPICS ADDRESSED TODAY
MODEL ESTIMATES &
PREDICTIONS

18. 2.7
18
WITHOUT INTERVENTIONS
COVID-19 SPREADS
PEOPLE INFECTED
PER CARRIER Week
1
Week
2
Week
3
Week
4
7 20 53
3
SOUTH TEXAS
84 Infected
In 1 month

19. INTERVENTIONS REDUCE
TRANSMISSION OF COVID-19
WITH PRESENT
INTERVENTIONS
0.9
3
4 7
2
19
SOUTH TEXAS
5 Infected
In 1 month

20. COVID-19 TRANSMISSION RATE ESTIMATES
SLOWING DOWN IN SOUTH TEXAS
May
25
May
18
May
11
May
25
May
18
May
11
ESTIMATED TRANSMISSION
RATE
WITHOUT INTERVENTIONS
ESTIMATED TRANSMISSION
RATE
4
3
2
1
20

21. COVID-19 TRANSMISSION RATE
SLOWEST IN SOUTH TEXAS
Estimated
Transmission Rate
INCREASING
DECREASING
2020-05-28
CC TAMU-CC COVID-19 TASK FORCE
Texas: 1.15

22. 22
STAY-AT-
HOME
COVID-19 Confirmed Admits to
Coastal Bend Hospitals
ENOUGH CAPACITY FOR
APPROXIMATELY 350
WITHOUT SEVERE DISRUPTION

23. 23
STAY-AT-
HOME
COVID-19 Confirmed Admits to
Coastal Bend Hospitals
ENOUGH CAPACITY FOR
APPROXIMATELY 30
WITHOUT SEVERE DISRUPTION

24. SUMMARY
•New cases in Coastal Bend have declined
•COVID-19 is not presently expanding in
South TX
• Cell phones, fatalities, epidemiology
• Estimated transmission rate = 0.9, slowing down
• Good news, but not time to be complacent
• Geographic pattern in TX transmission rate
•Hospitals presently well within capacity
• Task force communicates directly with health
officials 24

25. HELP CONTAIN
LOCAL OUTBREAKS
• Critically important to identify & contain
localized outbreaks
• Involved businesses, leaders, essential & front-
line workers should be commended for
comprehensive testing
• Lessons learned for managers
• Identify loopholes in social distancing policies or
COVID-19 will
25

26. WHAT CAN WE DO TO HELP “OPEN TEXAS” &
CONTROL SPREAD OF COVID-19?
• Each of us can make a difference
• CDC ‘Face coverings in public’ decreases
transmission
• Self-isolate when symptomatic
• Stay-at-Home if you can
• Postpone social gatherings, or have them
online
• Support testing & contact tracing
26
https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID

27. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
• The joint taskforce was created by Judge Canales, City leadership
including City Manager Zanoni, TAMU-CC President Miller and Vice
President Mahdy
• Many Organizations and People Contributed to this Work
• Including: Philippe Tissot, Keren Costanzo, Chris Bird, Daniel McGinn,
Steve Viera, Lucy Huang, Jason Selwyn, Bryan Gillis, Meng Zhao, Greg
Buck, Jason Louis, Hilary Watt, Annette Rodriguez, Mike Mohat, Mike
Simmons, Scott King, Evan Krell, Mahmoud Eldefrawy, Roy Roberts,
Audrey Garza, Gina Concannon, Davey Edwards, Qianqian Liu, Leisha
Martin, Ed Warga, Dante Gonzalez, Tiffany Anderson, Maggie Turner
27
https://www.conradblucherinstitute.org/covid19-response