2020_09_22_CBCovid Texas Coastal Bend Pandemic Report September 22, 2020

1. 1
https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID
TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC
REPORT
September 22, 2020
CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force

2. ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS &
QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 &
INTERVENTIONS
ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED
DECISION MAKING
2
TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES

3. 1. STAY-AT-HOME IF YOU CAN
2. SOCIAL DISTANCING & FACE COVERINGS
3. SELF ISOLATE WHEN SYMPTOMATIC
4. SCHOOL RESTRICTIONS
5. OPEN TX 1, 2, 3, 2, 1.5, 2.5
3
INTERVENTIONS & OPENING TX

4. Avg
Estimated
Persons
Infected
Per
Carrier
COASTAL BEND
TRANSMISSION
RATE (Rt)
0.9
0
100
80
60
40
20
Probability
R
t
<
1
TRAUMA
SERVICE
AREAS
*

5. 22,017 RECOVERIES
COASTAL BEND “COVID CONFIRMED” CASES
23,192 TOTAL CASES
572
ACTIVE
CASES
Texas-Wide
Outbreak
Receding
ACTIVE CASES
LEVELING OFF
(GOOD NEWS)

6. TEXAS RANKINGS: CASES
Coastal Bend
Note: Cases from recent
data dumps have been
assigned to their
respective test dates for
Nueces County Only
LARGE DROP IN
COASTAL BEND
COVID CASE
RANKING
(GOOD NEWS)

7. SAN PATRICIO
KLEBERG
DUVAL
ARANSAS
BROOKS
REFUGIO
7
NUECES
BEE
JIM WELLS
NEW CASES HAVE
DECLINED, LONG
TERM
(GOOD NEWS)
OPN
TX 3 2 1.5
Remote
School
Limited
Face 2 Face
School

8. REFUGIO
SAN PAT.
DUVAL
BROOKS
8
BEE
Cases generally
level or
declining
KLEBERG
ARANSAS
NUECES
JIM WELLS
Limited
Face 2 Face
School
OPN
TX
2.5

9. NUECES COUNTY
4%
10%
All Nueces Testing
Local PHD
Mobile Testing
10%
PERCENT POSITIVE TESTS
(Overall)
(40%)
(28%)
(21%)

10. TEXAS RANKINGS: HOSPITALIZATIONS
Coastal Bend
SLOW DECLINE

11. 11
COVID-19 Confirmed
Coastal Bend Inpatients
COVID-19
PATIENTS
116
SLOW DECLINE,
ACCURATE MODEL
PROJECTION
COASTAL BEND
13%
Patients
COVID +

12. ICU STILL OVER NORMAL CAP
COASTAL BEND ICU
PATIENT
CENSUS
NON-COVID
COVID
179
141
38
ICU PATIENTS
LEVELING OFF, STILL
STRETCHED
COVID

13. TEXAS RANKINGS: FATALITIES
Coastal Bend
NOTE: DUE TO NEW TX DSHS
PROTOCOL, FATALITIES IN PAST 10
DAYS ARE INCOMPLETE AND ARE
NOT PRESENTED HERE
CONTINUED
DECLINE

14. 14
COASTAL BEND COVID-19 FATALITIES
Updated Reporting:
Date on Death Certificate
603* Coastal
Bend
* Death certificates
from past 14 days still
being processed
39 MORE FATALITIES
RECORDED SINCE
LAST WEEK

15. 15
COVID-19 Confirmed Fatalities
By New Death Certificate Criteria
COVID-19
FATALITIES
NOTE: DUE TO NEW TX
DSHS PROTOCOL,
FATALITIES IN PAST 14
DAYS ARE INCOMPLETE
PROJECTED FATALITIES: COASTAL BEND
SLOW DECLINE,
ACCURATE MODEL
PROJECTION

16. 16
In the Dark Knight, Batman Used Cell Phone Data To Locate the Joker
CELL PHONES CAN BE USED TO ASSESS OUR
BEHAVIORS, EVALUATE INTERVENTIONS
Foot
Traffic
Leaving
Home
Potential
Encounters

17. POTENTIAL ENCOUNTERS DECREASING
17
Cell Phone Location Model
• Number of encounters
per km2 per day scaled
to Nueces
• 2 devices within 50
meters for less than 60
minutes
FRI-SAT
MON-THU
HURRICANE
HANNA
OPN
TX 3 2 1.5
Remote
School
Limited
Face 2 Face
School
MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND
LABOR DAY
WEEKEND
2

18. 18
SCHOOL FOOT TRAFFIC (NUECES)
Cell Phone Foot Traffic Model
• Visits to schools counted
• Device near or in building
• safeGraph.com
UNIVERSITIES
K-12
JR COLLEGE
OPN
TX 3 2
2 1.5
PROTECH
SCHOOLS
Remote
School
Limited
Face 2 Face
School

19. 19
Cell Phone Foot Traffic Model
• Visits to schools counted
• Device near or in building
• safeGraph.com
OPN
TX 3 2
2 1.5
Remote
School
Limited
Face 2 Face
School
ESSENTIAL & NON-ESSENTIAL GATHERINGS
RESTAURANTS
BARS
GROCERY
MALLS
HOME
IMPROVEMENT
MOVIES
GAMING

20. SUMMARY
•Texas-Wide-Outbreak is Almost Over
•COVID-19 cases declined in CB
•COVID-19 ICU usage & fatalities declining
• ICU still stretched on average
•Return to remote schooling correlated with
decline in cell phone encounters
•Transmission rate ~ 0.9
• Need to continue efforts to reduce
transmission to avoid another
outbreak 20

21. 21
https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID
TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC
REPORT
September 22, 2020
CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force